When the NFL moved back extra points 13 yards, some thought that would result in more teams going for two. It hasn’t really worked out that way.
Kicking the extra point is still the default option for every NFL team, even though extra point kicks are now a little harder and are made only about 95 percent of the time, rather than 99 percent of the time under the old rule.
And when teams are going for two, they’ve been a little more successful this season: This year, 58.5 percent of two-point conversion attempts have been successful. Last year, 45.1 percent of two-point conversion attempts were successful.
An offense that can consistently make more than 50 percent of its two-point conversions should treat going for two as the default: That would result in scoring more points in the long run. But coaches are risk-averse, and so far there has never been an NFL coach who made going for two the rule, rather than the exception.
Perhaps with two-point conversion rates inching upward in a league where the offenses keep getting better than the defenses, we’ll some day see a team trust its offense to get those two yards after every touchdown. But that day isn’t here yet.