PFT’s Week Nine picks

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We’re in midseason form. Which makes sense since it’s, you know, the middle of the season.

Last week, MDS and I posted matching 12-2 performances. The performance pushed my record for the season to 77-44 (63.6 percent). MDS is now 74-47 (61.1 percent).

The bad news is that we still have some work to do when it comes to picking games against the spread. Last week, we both posted a 2-1 mark in the best bets video. For the year, I’m at 12-11-1. MDS is 8-14-2.

For all of the Week Nine picks, which include only one disagreement. you know what to do.

Raiders at 49ers

MDS’s take: The NFL thought the battle of the Bay Area would be a good game when it was scheduled. Boy, where they wrong. Both of these teams stink, but I think the Raiders stink a little more.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 14, Raiders 13.

Florio’s take: It’s the Battle of the Bay. Of Pigs. Either Nick Mullens isn’t ready for prime time, or prime time isn’t ready for Nick Mullens.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 31, 49ers 27.


Bears at Bills

MDS’s take: It’s the Nathan Peterman show, which is likely to be a brutal beatdown against a good Bears defense.

MDS’s pick: Bears 20, Bills 6.

Florio’s take: If the Bills want to have a chance to win, they’ll play receiver Terrelle Pryor at quarterback, not Nathan Peterman. They won’t. And so they won’t win.

Florio’s pick: Bears 24, Bills 9.


Buccaneers at Panthers

MDS’s take: Ryan Fitzpatrick is a better quarterback than Jameis Winston, so that’s a point in the Buccaneers’ favor, but the Panthers’ offense should run wild against the weak Buccaneers defense.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 31, Buccaneers 30.

Florio’s take: Fitzpatrick or Winston, Winston or Fitzpatrick. It doesn’t matter against Cam.

Florio’s pick: Panthers 31, Buccaneers 23.


Chiefs at Browns

MDS’s take: Gregg Williams has an uphill climb in front of him because the Browns’ schedule only gets tougher, starting with a game against the Chiefs that should be a blowout.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 35, Browns 17.

Florio’s take: Be careful what you wish for, Greggggggggggg.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 38, Browns 13.


Jets at Dolphins

MDS’s take: Both of these teams have been up-and-down this year, so I think I’ll go with the home team in an unpredictable matchup.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 24, Jets 21.

Florio’s take: October is over, Brocktober continues. However it plays out, there likely will be no Brockuary for the Dolphins.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 23, Jets 20.


Steelers at Ravens

MDS’s take: This is a big one in the AFC North, and I think the Ravens’ defense will step up and shut down a good Pittsburgh offense.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 20, Steelers 14.

Florio’s take: It’s desperation time for a Ravens team that already has won in Pittsburgh. The sweep may still not be enough to get to the playoffs, but it’s something.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 30, Steelers 27.


Lions at Vikings

MDS’s take: The Lions signaled by trading Golden Tate that they don’t think they’re NFC North contenders. They’ll confirm that on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Vikings 30, Lions 17.

Florio’s take: The Lions are 2-0 in U.S. Bank Stadium. They won’t extend that streak to three.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 31, Lions 21.


Falcons at Washington

MDS’s take: Washington is playing better than anyone expected, and Atlanta is playing worse than anyone expected.

MDS’s pick: Washington 20, Falcons 17.

Florio’s take: Another Sunday, another chance to doubt Washington. Haven’t we learned not to do that?

Florio’s pick: Washinton 23, Falcons 20.


Texans at Broncos

MDS’s take: Demaryius Thomas gets to go right back to Denver after the Broncos traded him away. I’m not sure he’ll be ready to contribute much on Day One, but I still like Deshaun Watson to have a better game than Case Keenum as the Texans win.

MDS’s pick: Texans 24, Broncos 21.

Florio’s take: Demaryius Thomas has a huge day in the only home stadium he’s ever known, and the Texans get their sixth win.

Florio’s pick: Texans 27, Broncos 20.


Chargers at Seahawks

MDS’s take: A good game between two teams in wild card contention in their respective conferences. I like the Seahawks at home.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 28, Chargers 21.

Florio’s take: The Chargers remain destined for great things. They’ll just have a tough time dealing with a Seahawks team that is building more and more momentum, and that will have extra emotion for the first home game since the passing of owner Paul Allen. The home team takes what could be a Super Bowl preview.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 24, Chargers 21.


Rams at Saints

MDS’s take: The Rams showed some signs that they’re mortal last week, and I think this is the week that their 0 will go.

MDS’s pick: Saints 27, Rams 24.

Florio’s take: Pop the cork, Bob Griese. The Taysom Hill package will ultimately be the difference for the Saints.

Florio’s pick: Saints 34, Rams 31.


Packers at Patriots

MDS’s take: The Packers’ secondary is down a starting safety after the Ha Ha Clinton-Dix trade, and I think Tom Brady will know just where to attack.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 31, Packers 21.

Florio’s take: Aaron Rodgers may be the better quarterback, but Tom Brady has much better support around him. And Brady is playing at home. And Brady won’t want to lose to a guy who hasn’t won on the road all year.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 30, Packers 21.


Titans at Cowboys

MDS’s take: Marcus Mariota looks broken to me. I’m not sure what happened, but he’s just not the player he should be in Year 4. I think he’ll struggle in Dallas.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 20, Titans 17.

Florio’s take: The Cowboys yo-yo season continues. Home game after a loss equals a win. And, yes, it’s just that simple.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 20, Titans 16.

67 responses to “PFT’s Week Nine picks

  1. Panthers over Bucs – Panthers aren’t flashy but their defense is 1 of the better defenses the Bucs have faced this season.. Fitz makes it more interesting game BUT Panthers will manage the game for the win… [If the Bucs swap back to Winston, many in the media are declaring him a bust and he is not disproving them.]

    Falcons over Redskins – Redskins defense is playing well and Peterson is running like he usually does but the Falcons offense is to much for them to hinder or slow down..

    Saints over Rams – this should be a good game.. I believe wisdom, experience and talent wins this 1… Rams are good but young and still have much to learn..

  2. It baffles me every week Florio picks Ravens to win. I believe he picked them to beat the Pats for AFC champs. Ive watched Ravens this year and just dont get the love fest. Same ol Flaco. Defense not as advertised. I see Steelers smokin Joe. (see what I did there?). Steelers by two touchdowns.

  3. These 2 chalk pickers are hilarious.

    Please all you Packers haters on PFT bet against Green Bay this week. Bet big too!

    See you Monday👌

  4. .
    If Green Bay can run the ball and get play action going, then the Patriots are in for a dogfight. If not, then the Packers face an uphill fight at Foxboro.
    .

  5. I think its times like these where we are all reminded that football is just a game and we can all come together and be thankful that Ty Montgomery and his family made it out of Green Bay safely.

  6. “The Lions signaled by trading Golden Tate that they don’t think they’re NFC North contenders. They’ll confirm that on Sunday.”

    I totally disagree on both counts, but what do I know.

  7. harbaughtothebears says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:08 pm

    Raiders 3 – 49ers 2 FINAL SCORE
    ——————-

    O-O in overtime.

  8. I like it Florio! my two favorite teams, Seahawks vs. Chargers in the Superbowl with the Seahawks winning the preview and the real thing! Go Hawks!

  9. Super Bowl? Chargers have beat the, LOL,… Raiders, 49ers, Browns, Titans, and Bills… Just saying. A real juggernaut.

  10. They’ll just have a tough time dealing with a Seahawks team that is building more and more momentum, and that will have extra emotion for the first home game since the passing of owner Paul Allen. The home team takes what could be a Super Bowl preview.

    Florio’s pick: Seahawks 24, Chargers 21.

    ***********************************

    If the Chargers and Seahawks meet in the Super Bowl, we’ll all be too busy with the End of the World to care

    I think the Falcons win in a rout. And I think the Patriots win, but not because they pick on a new safety – I think the Packers’ biggest advantage is that Bill B has zero tape on how the Pack D will operate now. I also think the Lions, Steelers and especially Broncos will fare better than expected, though maybe not enough for the win.

    Some great games this week anyway, can’t wait for Rams @ Saints, this is why I love this game, daaaaaaaaang

  11. I still don’t understand Florio’s love for the chargers. Ya they are destined to go to the super bowl as long as they don’t have to play Kansas City who hasn’t lost to them in 5 years. Think about that 2 years in this sport is a lifetime. Most of the players on that chargers squad have never beaten the chiefs…. so please spare me your chargers are going to the super bowl it’s no different than idiots who think some underlining in the afc east is going to the super bowl even though they get there heads beaten in by New England every year.

  12. electricboogalo says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:19 pm

    What’s with the Bears’ powder puff schedule?
    _________

    They just played the Patriots two weeks ago. They have the Rams later in the season and the Vikings twice. Other than that, they have a last-place schedule.

  13. aj66shanghai says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:23 pm

    And I think the Patriots win, but not because they pick on a new safety – I think the Packers’ biggest advantage is that Bill B has zero tape on how the Pack D will operate now.
    _________

    I imagine the Pack D will operate pretty much the same way it’s operated all season, only worse. I don’t think getting rid of a starter gives a team an advantage because the other team doesn’t have tape on the new guy.

  14. At least we have some good games this week:

    Pats – Packers
    Ravens – Steelers
    Chargers – Seahawks
    Rams – Saints

    As for the Niners/Raiders, the NFL should pay people to watch that game!

  15. Rob Brzezinski is a Magician says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:31 pm
    aj66shanghai says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:23 pm

    And I think the Patriots win, but not because they pick on a new safety – I think the Packers’ biggest advantage is that Bill B has zero tape on how the Pack D will operate now.
    _________

    I imagine the Pack D will operate pretty much the same way it’s operated all season, only worse. I don’t think getting rid of a starter gives a team an advantage because the other team doesn’t have tape on the new guy.

    ************************************

    I picked the Pack to lose. I think they are overmatched in every respect, plus they are on the road. The only bright spot is that they can throw some previously-unseen defensive looks at TB and BB – not enough to win, but maybe they can make it close.

  16. Packers at Patriots
    MDS’s take: The Packers’ secondary is down a starting safety after the Ha Ha Clinton-Dix trade, and I think Tom Brady will know just where to attack.
    MDS’s pick: Patriots 31, Packers 21.
    Florio’s take: Aaron Rodgers may be the better quarterback, but Tom Brady has much better support around him. And Brady is playing at home. And Brady won’t want to lose to a guy who hasn’t won on the road all year.
    Florio’s pick: Patriots 30, Packers 21.
    ———————————————————————–
    I’m looking forward to seeing a healthy Sony Michel and James White put on a show. Hopefully it’s against the Packers! 🙂

  17. Rob Brzezinski is a Magician says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:27 pm
    electricboogalo says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:19 pm

    What’s with the Bears’ powder puff schedule?
    _________

    They just played the Patriots two weeks ago. They have the Rams later in the season and the Vikings twice. Other than that, they have a last-place schedule.

    **************************************

    They also handled the Seahawks, who are somehow being mentioned as a SB contender with zero trace of irony

  18. I hope the Pats beat the Packers.

    But this could go either way.

    I don’t see either team winning by 10 points. I think it will be a lot closer that that.

  19. allsyntax says:

    November 1, 2018 at 12:08 pm

    Cowboys run the table from here. 12-4 season
    ————————————————————————–

    Typical, delusional Cowboys fan.

  20. Florio’s take: Aaron Rodgers may be the better quarterback, but Tom Brady has much better support around him.
    —-//
    In what sober world is Rodgers a better qb than Brady.

    Only rationale I have is that you posted that as click bait.

  21. Did either of you guys watch the Ravens/Panthers game? Cam shredded the Ravens “elite” defense and he doesn’t have half the weapons that Ben has. I don’t like the Ravens chances at all – even at home.

    Steelers 27
    Ravens 17

  22. Florio’s take: Aaron Rodgers may be the better quarterback, but Tom Brady has much better support around him. And Brady is playing at home. And Brady won’t want to lose to a guy who hasn’t won on the road all year.
    —————————————

    If you want to judge who the best pure QB is and disregard Super Bowls that’s fine I guess. Based on talent level or lack there of around them then Dan Marino was better than both of them.

  23. Potential preview of the Super Bowl between Chargers and Seahawks? Puh leeze. This feels like a throwaway line to garner comments.

    Both MDS and Florio picking a blow out of the Browns by the Chiefs. While I certainly agree the Chiefs will win, I don’t see it as a blow out as they’re playing in Cleveland, the Chiefs D is fairly weak while the Browns sport a decent defense, and the Brownies just may come out inspired with Huey and Toddo gone (not that they really adore Gregg.) Chiefs 31, Browns 27.

  24. I’m done trying to figure out who the Ravens really are. They looked like a team who could suffocate opponents with that defense through the first 4 weeks of the season, but then came the annual October swoon. I want to believe they have enough to beat the Steelers again, but James Conner is a runnin’ fool.

    Ravens 27
    Steelers 24

    And this prediction ranks a 1 on a confidence scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being a stone cold lead pipe lock.

  25. 6ball says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:03 pm
    .
    If Green Bay can run the ball and get play action going, then the Patriots are in for a dogfight. If not, then the Packers face an uphill fight at Foxboro.
    ———————————————————————–

    I don’t know, every time I watch the Packers play it seems like Davante Adams is open by ten yards before Rodgers throws the ball. I don’t know why the Packers do not throw Adams the ball on every play, he is an excellent WR.

    Will the Pats stick Gilmore on Adams to try to slow him down, and will it work? If so I hope it works, we will see.

  26. electricboogalo says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:19 pm
    What’s with the Bears’ powder puff schedule?

    ——-

    In case you legitimately don’t know how NFL Schedules are built; teams play 4 teams from an AFC division, 4 from an NFC division, 6 from their own division, and the remaining 2 games against Conference opponents who finished the same place in their division.

    That and the Bears ducked last year.

  27. I said before last week that the upside for the Packers next 5 games would be 3-2, but very likely 2-3. After this week, they will be 0-2 entering the final 3 game stretch that should knock them out of playoff contention.

    Now, the Bears have been a surprise. If they manage to win 10 games, that just might win the division. Unless the Vikings go 10-5-1.

  28. cheeseisfattening says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:04 pm
    I think its times like these where we are all reminded that football is just a game and we can all come together and be thankful that Ty Montgomery and his family made it out of Green Bay safely.
    ——————————–
    Know you are a Queens fan…..didn’t know that you’re a drama queen too!!!

  29. Using the Westgate spreads:

    TB +6 @ Car Pick CAR
    KC @ Cle +8.5 Pick CLE Straight Up: KC
    Pit +3 @ Bal Pick PIT Straight Up: PIT
    Atl +1.5 @ Was Pick ATL Straight Up: ATL
    LAC +2 @ Sea Pick SEA Straight Up: SEA
    GB +5.5 @ NE Pick GB Straight Up: NE
    Ten +6 @ Dal Pick TEN Straight Up: DAL

    All spreads are at -110.

  30. If the Patriots can duplicate their first half defensive containment of Mahomes against Rodgers, I like them to post a similar type win. But somehow I don’t see it. Still, I hope for another 43-40 style win.

  31. We call the worst TNF matchup each year the Goodell Bowl, and this one will be a doozy. I feel sorry for the many tarps that have to watch it.

  32. electricboogalo says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:19 pm
    What’s with the Bears’ powder puff schedule?

    ——————————————————————–

    It’s called the AFC East. All the Pats fans here should know it well, they play powder puff every single year

  33. antkowiak666 says:
    November 1, 2018 at 1:08 pm
    allsyntax says:

    November 1, 2018 at 12:08 pm

    Cowboys run the table from here. 12-4 season
    ————————————————————————–

    Typical, delusional Cowboys fan.
    _________________________________

    Being a fan, I can assure you that is not your typical Cowboys fan. There are a few of those around these here PFT parts, but if you actually lived here you would understand the vast majority are forever critical of the team (the past few years very justifiably so with that little Red clapper running the show.)

  34. Sucks to agree with Florio on the Seahawks and Redskins but it’s basically picking those teams SU.

    Seahawks will win as long as Janikowski doesn’t miss more than 1 fg. Clinton-Dix should have an impact in situational ball vs Ryan as Redskins run all over the Falcons. Peterson is rolling. Falcons D is pathetic. Bottom 5 statistically.

    Chiefs will destroy the Browns. I’m never a fan of road faves of more than a TD but Browns are in disarray and Chiefs will score 34 and cover.

    I can’t roll with the Texans here. Line smells fishy. Stay away. I can only watch Rams/Saints. I don’t like betting on a game that exemplifies “gambling”.

    GL to all…

  35. How is “Rodgers is the better QB than Brady” suddenly the narrative. I am ok saying he throws the ball better, but lets not go overboard. Despite his few flashy comebacks, Rodgers has been average playing from behind and average on the road. If you don’t believe me look at the stats.

    At home they both have great winning percentages. Brady 111-19 (0.853). Rodgers 62-15-1(0.805).

    On the road it’s truly night and day.

    Brady is 91-40 (0.695) and Rodgers is 38-40 (0.487).

    Same number of losses!

    Brady’s ability to execute in tough situations is so much better.

  36. aj66shanghai says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:52 pm

    aj66shanghai says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:23 pm

    And I think the Patriots win, but not because they pick on a new safety – I think the Packers’ biggest advantage is that Bill B has zero tape on how the Pack D will operate now.

    ************************************

    I picked the Pack to lose. I think they are overmatched in every respect, plus they are on the road. The only bright spot is that they can throw some previously-unseen defensive looks at TB and BB – not enough to win, but maybe they can make it close.

    _____________________________

    You do realize that hey will use the same defense they’ve used all season right??? No coach is going to bring in new players and throw new wrinkles into their defense. Besides, you can’t throw any new defenses at Brady, he’s seen it all. They’d better better off throwing in new offensive plays.

  37. Superbowl preview? LOL. Thanks for the laugh. Never mind that the Chargers are just entering the toughest part of their schedule.

    Both teams will be Wildcards.

    When was the last time two wildcard teams met in a SB?

  38. NE fan. I expected KC to give NE’s D more than they could handle… and then they got thumped in the 1st half.
    Initially, I figured that GB will give NE’s D more than they can handle….

    a few ifs:

    if Hightower is available and healthy
    if Cannon is available and healthy
    if Rowe’s replacement can step in creditably
    If Sony Michel is available and healthy
    If Gronkowski is available and healthy

    why, then… NE should handle GB

    if all the above is questionable…. then it’ll be a much closer game

  39. Florio has the Chargers at #5 power rankings but they can’t beat an average Seahawks team? Which means the Chargers shouldn’t be #5 since the best they have beaten is a bad Titans team. To top off his pick Florio thinks this may be a preview of the Super bowl? HaHaHaHaHaHaHa! Stop it my stomach hurts.

  40. aj66shanghai says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:56 pm
    Rob Brzezinski is a Magician says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:27 pm
    electricboogalo says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:19 pm

    What’s with the Bears’ powder puff schedule?
    _________

    They just played the Patriots two weeks ago. They have the Rams later in the season and the Vikings twice. Other than that, they have a last-place schedule.

    **************************************

    They also handled the Seahawks, who are somehow being mentioned as a SB contender with zero trace of irony

    ================================

    Saying Chicago ‘handled’ Seattle is laughable. The seahawks could not have possibly played a worse game and still only lost by a TD. Overstatement city, population you brah.

  41. swaderhoo says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:03 pm
    Chargers vs. Seahawks Super Bowl? Probably about the same chance of that happening as tonight’s game being a Super Bowl preview.
    —————
    I hate to point out that mathematically two teams with winning records have a better chance of facing again in a SB than two teams with losing records. See what happens when you pay attention in school?

  42. obsession55 says:
    November 1, 2018 at 2:54 pm

    What’s with the Bears’ powder puff schedule?

    ——————————————————————–

    It’s called the AFC East. All the Pats fans here should know it well, they play powder puff every single year
    —————————————

    And yet the Pats win % with Brady under center is .833 vs the NFCN vs .795 against the AFCE. For the Pats to really play a powder puff schedule they’d need to be in the NFCN or the charmin soft AFCN where they also enjoy an .833 win % in spite of only playing the top team in that sorry division 2 of every 3 years.

  43. Liberalsruineverything says:
    November 1, 2018 at 1:22 pm
    Florio’s take: Aaron Rodgers may be the better quarterback, but Tom Brady has much better support around him. And Brady is playing at home. And Brady won’t want to lose to a guy who hasn’t won on the road all year.
    —————————————

    If you want to judge who the best pure QB is and disregard Super Bowls that’s fine I guess. Based on talent level or lack there of around them then Dan Marino was better than both of them.
    __________________________

    Agreed – Dan Marino was a BOSS.

    Rodgers has Marino’s arm with the ability escape the pocket and has pinpoint accuracy on the move.

    If Rodgers played for NE, NE would be better, if Brady played for GB, GB would never make the playoffs.

    Brady moves almost as bad as Marino.

  44. I’m shocked, SHOCKED I say, that the one guy with 15 Vikings fan names thinks the Pack don’t have a chance. Yhe same guy(s) who predicted a Rams blow out last week.

    I have no idea what the gamblers are saying but I’ll say that whomever has the ball last on Sunday night wins.

  45. freefromwhatyouare says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:03 pm

    These 2 chalk pickers are hilarious.

    Please all you Packers haters on PFT bet against Green Bay this week. Bet big too!

    See you Monday👌
    _____

    Will we see you Monday? I kind of doubt it.

  46. Typical Packer fans think they can beat anyone when their team hasn’t won a single game without the hometown refs letting their offensive line hold all game like at Green Bay.

  47. GoodellMustGo says:
    November 1, 2018 at 12:55 pm
    Packers at Patriots
    MDS’s take: The Packers’ secondary is down a starting safety after the Ha Ha Clinton-Dix trade, and I think Tom Brady will know just where to attack.
    MDS’s pick: Patriots 31, Packers 21.
    Florio’s take: Aaron Rodgers may be the better quarterback, but Tom Brady has much better support around him. And Brady is playing at home. And Brady won’t want to lose to a guy who hasn’t won on the road all year.
    Florio’s pick: Patriots 30, Packers 21.
    ———————————————————————–
    I’m looking forward to seeing a healthy Sony Michel and James White put on a show. Hopefully it’s against the Packers! 🙂

    ——————
    And the Pats have the better QB too.

  48. Patriots 31 Packers 23 this will be close but I think Rodgers throws a pick to end it. Look for White and Edelman to be the main factors I don’t think Michel will play. Ravens 24 Steelers 14 Ravens defense is better than the Steelers plus Ben usually isn’t so great against the Ravens lately. Saints 30 Rams 28 this will be a shootout for the ages but I think Rams go down here.

  49. MDS’s pick: 49ers 14, Raiders 13.

    Florio’s take: It’s the Battle of the Bay. Of Pigs. Either Nick Mullens isn’t ready for prime time, or prime time isn’t ready for Nick Mullens.

    Florio’s pick: Raiders 31, 49ers 27.

    These “experts” are off to a great start

  50. jjackwagon says:
    November 1, 2018 at 3:13 pm
    Superbowl preview? LOL. Thanks for the laugh. Never mind that the Chargers are just entering the toughest part of their schedule.
    Both teams will be Wildcards.
    When was the last time two wildcard teams met in a SB?
    ————————
    Don’t think it’s ever happened. Almost did in 2010, GB won as a WC and the Jets made the conference championship game and lost to the Steelers by 5.

  51. The Packers always play better with their backs against the wall and showed last week that they can hang with anyone anywhere. Packers 27 Patriots 20

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