PFT’s Week 11 picks

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It was not a good week.

MDS and yours truly disagreed on none of the 14 games. But each got only eight games right.

Even worse, in our weekly best bets segment, MDS and yours truly combined for a truly crappy 0-6 showing.

I’ve got a season-to-date record of 93-55 (62.8 percent). MDS is 91-57 (61.4 percent).

In the best bets competition, I’m 13-16-1. MDS is 11-17-2.

This week’s best bets appear in the video attached to this post. The good news (if there is any) is that there’s no way we’ll go 0-6 again this week.

Packers at Seahawks

MDS’s take: Two teams with their backs to the wall, with another loss potentially devastating their playoff chances. I think the Seahawks, with home-field advantage, will deal a death blow to the Packers.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 24, Packers 17.

Florio’s take: It’s an elimination game, sort of, for a pair of teams that seem to be destined to be eliminated, eventually. Seattle’s newly-bruising running game makes the difference.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 23, Packers 20.


Bengals at Ravens

MDS’s take: The Bengals’ defensive struggles go far beyond anything that firing their defensive coordinator can fix.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 28, Bengals 21.

Florio’s take: It’s a pair of desperate teams, and one of them will likely be missing its starting quarterback. The other is missing a defense.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 27, Bengals 17.


Cowboys at Falcons

MDS’s take: I don’t think the Falcons are as bad as they looked last week, and I don’t think the Cowboys are as good as they looked last week. A course correction is in order.

MDS’s pick: Falcons 24, Cowboys 13.

Florio’s take: The Falcons supposedly took the Browns too lightly. They won’t do that a second week in a row.

Florio’s pick: Falcons 31, Cowboys 21.


Buccaneers at Giants

MDS’s take: Ryan Fitzpatrick should outplay Eli Manning and the Bucs should eat a W.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 28, Giants 20.

Florio’s take: The Buccaneers are disintegrating their way to a new coach, and the Giants are surging away from a top-five draft pick.

Florio’s pick: Giants 27, Buccaneers 20.


Steelers at Jaguars

MDS’s take: Two teams heading in opposite directions. The Steelers should keep things going with a very easy win against an overmatched Jaguars team.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 27, Jaguars 17.

Florio’s take: The Steelers will be determined to settle a couple of scores from 2017, and the Jaguars are getting more and more desperate.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 31, Jaguars 20.


Texans at Washington

MDS’s take: I don’t think too many people expected this to be a matchup of first-place teams, but that’s exactly what this is. I expect the Texans to go on the road and make a statement.

MDS’s pick: Texans 28, Washington 14.

Florio’s take:  Washington continues to be a tough team to read. Chalk up the Week 10 win to a Bucs team that is teetering on implosion. The Texans aren’t.

Florio’s pick: Texans 23, Washington 17.


Titans at Colts

MDS’s take: A big one in the AFC South race, I think the Colts will earn a narrow victory in a low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Colts 17, Titans 16.

Florio’s take: It’s a critical AFC South game involving a pair of teams that continue to be firmly in position to make a run at the Texans. The home team takes down a final-eight franchise from 2017 for the second straight week.

Florio’s pick: Colts 23, Titans 20.


Panthers at Lions

MDS’s take: The Lions look like they’re rapidly swirling down the drain. The Panthers should bounce back from an ugly loss to the Steelers.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 30, Lions 20.

Florio’s take: Panthers coach Ron Rivera had the right attitude regarding the Week 10 wipeout in Pittsburgh. Throw in extra time and a desperate need to stay within striking distance of the Saints, and Carolina finds a way to turn things around.

Florio’s pick: Panthers 30, Lions 21.


Broncos at Chargers

MDS’s take: The Chargers might just be the second-best team in the AFC. They’ll need to keep winning to have any chance of supplanting the Chiefs as the best team in the AFC.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 28, Broncos 17.

Florio’s take: The second best team in the AFC, and possibly the best overall team in L.A., keeps rolling.

Florio’s pick: Chargers 27, Broncos 16.


Raiders at Cardinals

MDS’s take: In a battle of two of the worst teams in the league, I think the Cardinals care more and should come away with the win.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 27, Raiders 23.

Florio’s take: Whether they’re trying to do it or not, the Raiders are tanking. The tanking continues against a Cardinals team that isn’t.

Florio’s pick: Cardinals 23, Raiders 13.


Eagles at Saints

MDS’s take: This one might be the final death blow for the Eagles’ playoff hopes.

MDS’s pick: Saints 30, Eagles 20.

Florio’s take: This is precisely the kind of trap into which a team could easily stumble. The Saints currently seem to be immune to that.

Florio’s pick: Saints 30, Eagles 20.


Vikings at Bears

MDS’s take: First place in the NFC North is on the line, and I think the Bears are primed for one of their best performances in front of what should be a great home crowd.

MDS’s pick: Bears 31, Vikings 20.

Florio’s take: The Bears get their biggest test of the year. They’re good enough to pass it.

Florio’s pick: Bears 27, Vikings 24.


Chiefs at Rams

MDS’s take: Maybe the best game of this NFL season. Call it a hunch, but I think the Chiefs pull off the road upset.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 31, Rams 28.

Florio’s take: The Rams’ defense isn’t great, but it’s good enough to slow down the Chiefs’ offense a little more than the Chiefs’ defense will slow down the Rams’ offense.

Florio’s pick: Rams 41, Chiefs 38.

67 responses to “PFT’s Week 11 picks

  1. Tonight’s game is a big Meh burger with two lower division rebuilding teams out there. Not sure who cares outside of Seattle and Green Bay but I do like Seattle in this one as they are much further along in their rebuild than Green Bay and their QB is not in decline.

  2. The LA Chargers did not play well against the Las Vegas Raiders last week. They better buckle up and play their best game against the Bronco’s or get knocked off.

  3. It’s astounding how many people are completely writing off the Vikings this week. I know the Vikings are in the same boat in terms of quality wins, but the Bears best win was by 7 points against a 4-5 Seahawks team.

    The Vikings are just hitting their stride on Defense and except for Mack, have way more talent than the Bears on both sides of the ball.

    24-16 Vikings

  4. Man everyone is picking the Bears over the Vikings. For good reasons thou. The Vikings struggle at Soldier Field, not lately, but historically, the Bears are winning games by a wider margin, and their defense is good. Neither team has really beaten anybody good yet. The main factors are how the Vikings offensive line does against Mack and how trubisky does against the Vikings defense. trubisky is playing soo good this year, but he hasn’t played a defense like ours yet.

  5. Two average teams, neither of which will make the playoffs. Bigger question is: Who is back to coach next year? Carroll or McCarthy?

  6. pfthatesfreespeech says:
    November 15, 2018 at 11:58 am

    It’s astounding how many people are completely writing off the Vikings this week. I know the Vikings are in the same boat in terms of quality wins, but the Bears best win was by 7 points against a 4-5 Seahawks team.

    The Vikings are just hitting their stride on Defense and except for Mack, have way more talent than the Bears on both sides of the ball.

    24-16 Vikings

    ___________________________

    It’s astounding that you care so much.

    The Bills ripped us up on our home turf and the Bears destroyed them, who cares who they have played. Go on with the baby talk and get over it. They’re good team, deal with it.

  7. And both of you will be wrong again betting on the Bears. Vikings wil win coming off a bye. Vikes defense will show they’re the best in the division.

    Vikings 24, Bears 16

  8. Falcons over Cowboys – Falcons got caught underestimating the Browns… The cowboys have their own struggles and Falcons bounce back

    Giants over Bucs – both are bad teams but the Giants are not as bad

    Panthers over Lions – Panthers are finding ways to win while Lions are still yet to find their way

    Saints over Eagles – likely a good game but Saints are rolling strong this season

  9. 4sacroc says:
    November 15, 2018 at 12:10 pm
    Two average teams, neither of which will make the playoffs. Bigger question is: Who is back to coach next year? Carroll or McCarthy?

    ——–
    You do realize the Packers are like 2 games out of first place? Is no team going to make the playoffs from the NFC North? If the Packers lose tonight they are really out of it and their only shot is a wild card birth at 9 wins.

  10. An ever-improving team week-to-week, and the Packers also closer to having a quarterback that isn’t hogtied, will be the difference tonight. The off-season tweaks are starting to pay dividends, especially on defense. The naysayers are already playing their hoping, wishing, and praying cards.

  11. I continue to believe that this will be the Vikings toughest game of the year so far. No matter who they have played, no matter who the Bears have played. It will come down to turnovers. Bears #1 in the NFL with a differential of +13. Vikings #16 with a differential of +1.

  12. As a Bears fan I’m a little nervous about them becoming the new media darlings. They have a pretty long history of not handling that well. If they can actually meet expectations in these next few weeks that will be a huge endorsement for Ryan Pace and the new coaching regime.

  13. It would benefit the Packers if the Vikings beat the Bears, but I’d rather play it out and see the Bears win. The Vikings wouldn’t fall far……their high-horse isn’t very tall.

  14. seahawks80 says:
    November 15, 2018 at 12:23 pm

    So in my pick-em league I always pick the opposite of Florio….I’m in first BTW
    _________

    If you always pick opposite of Florio, your record is 55-93. The other players in your league must be trying to lose.

  15. My predictions for Monday are: 1) The Chiefs run Hunt to Marcus Peters side all game long, 2) Peter spends all game avoiding contact, 3) Hunt sets a single game rushing record, 4) Peters get burnt for 2 or 3 long TD passes as he attempts to jump Hills route and Mahomes throws it over the top to Hill, 5) Peters gets at least one Unsportsmanlike penalty, 6) The Chiefs win, 7) After the game Peters runs his mouth about how he is still good, and he will see Andy Ried again and they will have some “BBQ”, 8) In March Peters is picked up by a CFL team. Lol

  16. Lifetime Packer fan…and owner.
    It’s one of those real wierd games, pulling for the Pack’s ALL-TIME #1 rival feels strange but…
    Bear Down!

  17. They were confident in their predictions that the Patriots would beat the Titans last week… I guess a 34-10 Titans win isn’t convincing enough. Titans have looked so much better in the last 2 weeks than they did before their bye week. The Colts aren’t the only hot team in this matchup…

  18. Have we had a better TNF matchup than this? Typically, they stink but GB vs Seattle is always entertaining. You have 2 elite playmaking QB’s and 2 newly found power Running games. It’s old school football.

    You also have 2 overrated coaches. GB should have 2+ Lombardi’s with Rodgers. Seattle should have 2+ Lombardi’s with Wilson. Seattle should’ve won in 2012 and 2014, if not for poor coaching and play calling. GB could’ve won in 2014, if not for poor coaching. Pete Carroll is annoying.

    It’s still 2 very good teams that don’t rebuild, just re-tool with Elite signal callers. This will be my 1st TNF game view because of Rodgers/Wilson. You pay to watch HOFers.

  19. seahawks80 says:
    November 15, 2018 at 12:23 pm

    So in my pick-em league I always pick the opposite of Florio….I’m in first BTW

    ———————-
    So you’re 55-93 (Florio is 93-55) and leading the pick-em league? Sounds like a DUD league to me. Nicely done.

  20. ajzinnecker says:
    November 15, 2018 at 12:22 pm
    4sacroc says:
    November 15, 2018 at 12:10 pm
    Two average teams, neither of which will make the playoffs. Bigger question is: Who is back to coach next year? Carroll or McCarthy?

    ——–
    You do realize the Packers are like 2 games out of first place? Is no team going to make the playoffs from the NFC North? If the Packers lose tonight they are really out of it and their only shot is a wild card birth at 9 wins.

    =======

    GB has looked like garbage all season. They are lucky to have four wins as poorly as they have performed. It’s a team in decline.

  21. Panthers at Lions

    This could be a massacre of my beloved Lions. Then, 5 days later, ‘Da Bears come to town and I expect an execution on national television.

    A season that began with so much hope, essentially ended after the first game. It’s awful.

  22. Don’t know how much losing Kupp is going to effect the Rams but they also are spending the week in Colorado Springs and the Chiefs stayed home. I think this will be the first time the Chiefs defense will be healthy with the exception of Eric Berry. Chiefs are still missing their starting center and right tackle. With the way the Rams Defense has been playing compared to the upswing in the play if the Chiefs Defense I have to give the edge to the Chiefs.

  23. The Bears defensive front will eat the Vikings oline alive. Cousins will get strip sacked more than once. Trubisky is very hard to get on the ground.
    Like the Bears at home.

  24. My predictions for Monday are: 1) The Chiefs run Hunt to Marcus Peters side all game long, 2) Peter spends all game avoiding contact, 3) Hunt sets a single game rushing record, 4) Peters get burnt for 2 or 3 long TD passes as he attempts to jump Hills route and Mahomes throws it over the top to Hill, 5) Peters gets at least one Unsportsmanlike penalty, 6) The Chiefs win, 7) After the game Peters runs his mouth about how he is still good, and he will see Andy Ried again and they will have some “BBQ”, 8) In March Peters is picked up by a CFL team. Lol

    **************

    Numbers one thru five could all happen and the Rams would still score more points against that Chiefs 29ths ranked defense. 29th despite a schedule that included offensive (as in insulting) juggernauts the 49ers, Cardinals, Browns, Broncos (twice)…

  25. stellarperformance says:
    November 15, 2018 at 12:24 pm
    An ever-improving team week-to-week, and the Packers also closer to having a quarterback that isn’t hogtied, will be the difference tonight. The off-season tweaks are starting to pay dividends, especially on defense.

    —————————————
    Packer fans are still riding high off of their defense performance where they allowed a back up QB named Brock Osweiler 5 red zone possessions on a sputtering Dolphins offense that was missing 9 starters and several back-ups.

    To put that performance in proper context – the week before that the 26th ranked Jets D gave up only 2 FG’s to a healthier Miami squad. But, if your a GB fan I guess that allowing 5 red zone drives against practice squad players is what passes for defensive brilliance.

  26. You both think the Chargers are the 2nd best team in the AFC when their 7 wins have come against the Raiders twice, Cleveland, Buffalo, San Fran, an ugly win vs. Tennessee (where Tennessee chose to go for two instead of kicking the extra point for the tie and overtime) and Seattle. Only Tennessee has a winning record at 5-4? Of those 6 teams they’ve defeated, they have a total of 18 wins. If Tennessee wins in overtime, none of their wins are against teams with winning records. Also, it’s one thing to say they might be the 2nd best team in the AFC, but Florio then expounds on his argument with the possibility of being the best team in LA? The Rams did handle the Chargers pretty easily this season. With these comments, I now I fully understand why MDS and Florio both have such poor records picking winners each week.

  27. darkneptune73 says:
    November 15, 2018 at 11:41 am
    So if the Vikings beat the Bears, can we just conclude the Bears are overrated?
    —————————————————————-

    Why do I get the impression that you’d conclude the same exact thing if the Bears won 49-0?

  28. vikingf0rlife says:
    November 15, 2018 at 12:13 pm
    pfthatesfreespeech says:
    November 15, 2018 at 11:58 am

    It’s astounding how many people are completely writing off the Vikings this week. I know the Vikings are in the same boat in terms of quality wins, but the Bears best win was by 7 points against a 4-5 Seahawks team.

    The Vikings are just hitting their stride on Defense and except for Mack, have way more talent than the Bears on both sides of the ball.

    24-16 Vikings

    ___________________________

    It’s astounding that you care so much.

    The Bills ripped us up on our home turf and the Bears destroyed them, who cares who they have played. Go on with the baby talk and get over it. They’re good team, deal with it.

    ___________________________

    I missed where exactly I said how much I care. I simply eluded to the fact that most people are picking the Bears, and that that was baffling to me and then I gave my reasoning. I actually in the grand scheme care very very little about football. Probably a bit unnecessary to resort to an ad hominem attack by bringing out “baby talk” instead of dealing with my argument, which you clearly missed by recalling a Bills game that took place 7 weeks ago when I said it seems the Vikings are “just hitting their stride”

  29. Can we spread the news when talking about teams’ records and who’ve they beaten, to NOT included the game vs compared to team? Confused? Chargers only beat Titans with a 5-4 record.

    No… They’re a 5-3 if NOT playing the Chargers. That defeat by LA over Titans makes Titans look worse but games outside of Chargers they’re solid. .600 ball.

    It’s annoying and NOBODY has figured out how to justify teams that a team has beaten. Is Seattle any good? The Rams didn’t beat a 4-5 team. They beat a 4-3 team twice. For those with a brain, you’ll get the logic.

  30. vikingforlife should stop impersonating a Viking fan…his post indicate he doens’t even really watch the games. Trubisky in for a very rude awakening as are Bear fans in general. Vikings WILL defend the North! SKOL.

  31. Bears get blown out! Period! End of Story! Book it!!! Whatever stupid saying you want! Guaranteed!

  32. i should be worried about my lead in the pick em league cause me and florio agree on every game except the ravens….picking the ravens without flacco vs the bengals is why mike only has 93 right this year…

  33. You can thumb down Rick Darcy’s post, but he is correct. I also find it annoying when you talk about wins/losses INCLUDING the team being compared that they have played.

  34. Seahawks 24 Packers 17 I don’t see the Packers getting to the playoffs this year they have some ground to catch with the Bears and Vikings Rodgers isn’t enough. Chargers 30 Broncos 17 Chargers offense looks damn good and Gordon is helping to take pressure off of Rivers. Redskins 16 Texans 10 this will be an ugly defensive game in that case give me the Skins.

  35. When I last posted my picks straight up and against the spread in week 9, there were quite a few thumbs down. Love it – the hate is delicious! Oh, but I did go 5-2 straight up and 4-3 against the spread that week…just a touch better than what you see from the authors. So here goes…

    Green Bay +3 @ Seattle Pick: Seattle Straight Up: Seattle
    Dallas +3 @ Atlanta Pick: Atlanta Straight Up: Atlanta
    Pittsburgh @ Jac +5.5 Pick: Jac Straight Up: Pittsburgh
    Houston @ Was +3 Pick: Was Straight Up: Was
    Philly +8.5 @ NO Pick: Philly Straight Up: NO
    Minn +2.5 @ Chi Pick: Minn Straight Up: Minn
    KC +3.5 @ LA Rams Pick: LA Rams Straight Up: LA Rams (side note: Take the over on the Chiefs/Rams game at 63.5.)

  36. 62% for straight up picks by supposed “experts” is pretty bad if you think about it.

    Let that sink in. The same keyboard jockeys that are trying to degrade this team or that player, or set their own narrative for a story they want to push, are barely in the black for straight picks (moneyline).

    Vegas is attempting to straddle the 50% marker for SPREADS. While 62% against the Spread would be pretty solid, these guys are just making straight picks and are barely in positive territory doing that.

  37. Yep, 62% straight up IS pretty bad. If one did that consistently against the spread, they would be considered unreal. To beat the typical -110 Vegas vig, one needs to be right about 52.5% of the time to break even. 55% – 56% from sharps (pro bettors) is considered outstanding.

    While I was glad to see Florio take PFT posters comments to heart and start picking some games vs the spread, his record at 45% isn’t very good. MDS’ at 39% is downright horrible. It appears based on MDS’ record for straight up picks plus his comments on them, he doesn’t put a whole lot of thought into it. But hey, he only writes for a football website.

  38. I’m convinced you guys are laying in bed together when you’re coming up with these predictions.

  39. Packers will score 31 tonight. I dont know if that means they win. Their defense could give up 35. Their offense seems to be getting back on track though.

  40. Please disrespect the Cowboys. Don’t eat too much before Thanksgiving. Cowboys will be serving up a healthy serving of crow for ya’ll doubters. Extra helpings after Thanksgiving Day, when they retake the division lead from that Washington team. No, not that one, the one in DC. Yeah.

  41. fballguy says:
    Numbers one thru five could all happen and the Rams would still score more points against that Chiefs 29ths ranked defense. 29th despite a schedule that included offensive (as in insulting) juggernauts the 49ers, Cardinals, Browns, Broncos (twice)…
    ——————————————–
    Schedules…you really want to talk about schedules? The Rams schedule isn’t exactly filled with playoff teams.
    BTW while you haven’t been paying attention the Chiefs D has improved to 22nd and is still improving. Something that cannot be said for the Rams D.

  42. Alan Light says:
    November 15, 2018 at 1:56 pm

    vikingforlife should stop impersonating a Viking fan…his post indicate he doens’t even really watch the games. Trubisky in for a very rude awakening as are Bear fans in general. Vikings WILL defend the North! SKOL.

    ____________________________

    I’m not impersonating, I’m just here to save our Viking fan base from humiliation and embarrassment due to the complete stupidity vomit that is posted on here…such as yourself.

  43. I’m going to point and laugh hysterically at each person who picks the bears to win after they lose this week. It’s an affront to logic and good sense to pick a one player team vs a team with winners at every level.

  44. The Giants are gonna run off 11 straight right to Eli’s 3rd ring and retirement. It’s the ultimate ending for the ultimate strangest QB career in history. Everyone knows he’s been kissed by angels. The day after, the world will end.

  45. All signs point to a Bears win… Outdoors, cold weather, Vikes coming off a bye, they struggle in Chicago, The Bears D is solid–beyond just KMack, Trubisky is gaining some confidence, he’s mobile and not afraid to pull it down and run, and the Bears have backs that can catch the ball out of the backfield. I may not even watch

  46. The Packers are getting back on track on both sides of the ball as we saw last week. Packers 31 Seahawks 14

  47. Well my Bills are on their bye even though the offense technically has been most of the year. And since they’ve made the switch from Matt “I Should Be Starting” Barkley back to Josh “You’ll Be Sorry You Drafted Me” Allen…only one thing to say…

    SO HOW BOUT THOSE SABRES????

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