Doug Pederson is constantly thinking about fourth-down scenarios

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Eagles coach Doug Pederson has become a trendsetter when it comes to going for it on fourth down. As more and more coaches follow Pederson’s lead by rolling the dice in key spots, Pederson spent a little time explaining to PFT after Sunday’s come-from-16-behind win over the Giants his method for deciding whether to go for it.

“I think what you’re seeing is a mix of gut feeling, a little analytics, and trusting the players,” Pederson said.

Pederson also said that he spends plenty of time rehearsing the scenarios during which a go-for-it-or-not decision is being made. He thinks about it not only when formally preparing for the next Eagles game but also when watching other games, including NFL games and college games.

“You’re watching situations and testing yourself,” Pederson said. “It’s constant study.”

Some decisions to go for it are made prior to the game, with Pederson telling the players that, if they get in a specific situation during the game, they’ll go for it. Other decisions are made in the moment.

When it’s time to make those decisions in the moment, Pederson can instantly draw upon a reservoir of research and thinking and repetition from moments when other coaches found themselves having to decide whether to take a chance, recalling his own assessment of what he would have done in those various specific circumstances.

That’s something every coach should be doing, up to and including playing Madden in the offseason (I’m not kidding) to force themselves to consider whether to go for it under as many specific scenarios as possible. No coach has admitted that he uses that type of simulation, but it seems like it’s only a matter of time before someone does.

34 responses to “Doug Pederson is constantly thinking about fourth-down scenarios

  1. I think he’s making more out of it than it deserves,,, just to think he wrote a whole book on going for it on 4th down is a snooze fest

  2. .
    ” Eagles coach Doug Pederson has become a trendsetter when it comes to going for it on fourth down.”

    ——–

    The 2 Biggest NFL Lies

    1. The Ravens are the team that nobody wants to face in the playoffs (sorry KC, LA and NO)

    2. Doug Pederson invented going for it on fourth down. Apparently all the times Belichick went for it over the past 17 years, he was just confused about what down it was.
    .

  3. oiler1980 says:
    November 25, 2018 at 7:21 pm
    Yes.. The man revolutionized football..

    His team is 5 – 6 …

    SMH

    *******

    Worst roster in the nfl and won super bowl with backups

  4. but if they failed to convert…. would the headline have been “Pedersons refusal to play for OT could cost his team a chance at the playoffs”?

  5. kenmasters34 says:
    November 25, 2018 at 7:51 pm
    but if they failed to convert…. would the headline have been “Pedersons refusal to play for OT could cost his team a chance at the playoffs”?

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Ouch!! Nice play, Rodgers.

  6. Andrew Walters says:
    November 25, 2018 at 7:25 pm
    oiler1980 says:
    November 25, 2018 at 7:21 pm
    Yes.. The man revolutionized football..
    His team is 5 – 6 …
    SMH
    *******
    Worst roster in the nfl and won super bowl with backups
    =========================================================================================
    Plenty of talent on that roster, including one of the best receiving tight ends in football, a Pro Bowl Receiver, and a guy who rushed for 1200 yards the year before (picked up in just before mid-season). A defense that was already 12th the prior season and moved up to 4th in 2017 (credit Jim Schwartz for that, not Pederson). A back-up Pro Bowl QB who once threw 27 TD’s and only 2 TD’s in one season.

    Pederson did a nice job bringing everything together to win a Super Bowl. Howie Roseman did an even better job of bringing talent to the team. They are both good at their jobs but aren’t any more special than other guys that have won Super Bowls, and aren’t anywhere near the level of guys that have had sustained success and won multiple Super Bowls.

  7. Walters.. You will keep reliving the past as many others do..

    It really doesn’t matter going forward..

    Seahawks.. Denver… Oakland… Pittsburgh… Tampa Bay… Carolina…

    Get it?

  8. frank booth says:
    November 25, 2018 at 8:06 pm
    Andrew Walters says:
    November 25, 2018 at 7:25 pm
    oiler1980 says:
    November 25, 2018 at 7:21 pm
    Yes.. The man revolutionized football..
    His team is 5 – 6 …
    SMH
    *******
    Worst roster in the nfl and won super bowl with backups
    =========================================================================================
    Plenty of talent on that roster, including one of the best receiving tight ends in football, a Pro Bowl Receiver, and a guy who rushed for 1200 yards the year before (picked up in just before mid-season). A defense that was already 12th the prior season and moved up to 4th in 2017 (credit Jim Schwartz for that, not Pederson). A back-up Pro Bowl QB who once threw 27 TD’s and only 2 TD’s in one season.

    Pederson did a nice job bringing everything together to win a Super Bowl. Howie Roseman did an even better job of bringing talent to the team. They are both good at their jobs but aren’t any more special than other guys that have won Super Bowls, and aren’t anywhere near the level of guys that have had sustained success and won multiple Super Bowls.
    *******
    Eagles were picked to go 5-11 with a full roster in 2017 so no they had no talent they had a bunch of backups on their oline last year they had a backup as their WB and they had backups for their linebackers and secondary. Like I said worst roster in the nfl

  9. frank booth says:
    November 25, 2018 at 8:06 pm
    *******
    Notice how you said plenty of talent and gave no players. Eagles have the worst roster in the nfl they were picked to finish last in their Divsion going into last year no coach has ever won a sueprbowl with the majority of his core as backups

  10. Walters… Your Coach had the biggest loss in NFL history when they lost to the Saints last week..

    The biggest loss in NFL history.

    Look it up and think about that for a minute.. Let it sink in..

    Now try your argument again..

  11. I can remember watching NFL every Sunday and all the playoffs every year without seeing anyone go for it on 4th down the entire season, for season after season. It never happened. The main thing that changed it is the advent of analytics coming to the fore. Crediting one particular coach or team for it is probably a mistake.

  12. Andrew Walters says:
    November 25, 2018 at 8:19 pm
    frank booth says:
    November 25, 2018 at 8:06 pm
    *******
    Notice how you said plenty of talent and gave no players. Eagles have the worst roster in the nfl they were picked to finish last in their Divsion going into last year no coach has ever won a sueprbowl with the majority of his core as backups
    ===============================================================================================================================
    Carson Wentz
    Nick Foles- Pro Bowl in 2013, 27 TD’s, 2 INT’s
    Zach Ertz
    Alshon Jeffery
    Jay Ajayi 1200+ yards previous season
    LaGarrette Blount- more than solid RB with Super Bowl experience
    The defense had almost all of the previous years starters, or guys who started for other teams like Jernigan.
    Kelce, Brooks, and Johnson on the line were all long term starters. Wisniewski a solid vet who started 6 games at guard the year before, Vaital started 7 games the year before. Teams play with injuries and lose guys along the way all the time. The Packers lost more starters when they won the Super Bowl in the 2010 season. The Eagles are one of several teams to win a Super Bowl with a back-up QB.

  13. Also, USA Today picked the Eagles to 9-7 in 2017, and Albert Breer of SI had them as a third seed in the 2017 NFC playoffs.

  14. Do any of you watch football? And if you do, do you understand what you are watching?

    First of all not a great roster aside from the QB and TE.

    Second Schwartz does nothing for this defense. He will be fired the day after the season ends. Why do you suppose he had zero HC opps?

    Third Bill Beliicheat is a cheater. It’s been proven repeatedly. You can’t argue that as much as you try. It’s a fact. When Bill would go for it on 4th down it would be at the opponents 30 or less and be a yard or less.
    Doug will go for it on fourth from his own 40 with 3 yards needed for a first. Check your “facts” before you post them. Doug if he has done nothing, has most certainly revolutionized how this game is played on 3rd and 4th down.

    I get that most comments on here are by haters, but some of you folks are idiots.

  15. There are a lot of jealous haters here. The Eagles are still the Champs til February:

    No one seems willing to acknowledge the obvious, the Eagles have lost more man games to injuries than any team in the league this year and it’s not even close:
    IR
    M Wallace
    J Ajayi
    M Hollins
    R Rodgers
    D Barnett
    R Darby
    R McLeod
    P Worrilow
    C Maragos
    J Perkins
    E Bouka
    And have had other players not on IR miss Significant Games or forced to play at a diminished capacity by playing thru injuries:
    D Sproles – played 1 game
    S Jones – missed all or parts of 4 games
    J Mills – missed 3 games
    J Peters – playing thru torn biceps
    L Johnson – playing thru torn MCL
    J Kelce – dislocated Elbow
    A Jeffries – missed 3 games
    T Jernigan – hasn’t played yet this year
    A Maddox – knee injury – out TBD
    J Hicks – leg injury out TBD
    R Douglas – knee injury out TBD

    Show me a roster more devastated by injury. No one can win with so many backup players off the street.

  16. Please. Stop trying to build some fantastic underdog story that didn’t exist. Pederson did a good job with a team with lesser expectations, but he’s hardly some sort of supercoach. If he was, the Eagles wouldn’t have a losing record right now and be losing to teams like TB, the Cowboys, and the Titans. The roster may not have been the best, but there is plenty of talent on that team. Worse rosters have won Super Bowls. You don’t finish with the #3 offense and the #4 defense because you have no talent. You had 2 All-Pro OL in 2017 plus Pro Bowler Jason Kelce- that’s big. That was a very talented offensive line in 2017 ranked 1st by PFF. And prior to the 2017 season, PFF had the Eagles defensive line ranked 3rd overall.

    Schwartz had 0 HC opps because he’s not a good head coach. Many very good coordinators have taken head coaching jobs only to find that they are overmatched and return to the coordinator ranks.

    But if you’re saying that Schwartz doesn’t do anything for the defense, then their defensive players must have been immensely talented to overcome the limitations of their defensive coordinator and have a Top 5 defense in 2017.

    Enjoy being Super Bowl Champions and stop trying to romanticize it as a “David and Goliath” story. The reign comes to an end in a few month so enjoy the rest of it.

  17. frank booth says:
    November 25, 2018 at 8:52 pm
    Also, USA Today picked the Eagles to 9-7 in 2017, and Albert Breer of SI had them as a third seed in the 2017 NFC playoffs.
    *******
    Wrong USA Today picked the eagles to go 5-11 at full strength so you just lied

  18. frank booth says:
    November 25, 2018 at 8:45 pm
    Andrew Walters says:
    November 25, 2018 at 8:19 pm
    frank booth says:
    November 25, 2018 at 8:06 pm
    *******
    Notice how you said plenty of talent and gave no players. Eagles have the worst roster in the nfl they were picked to finish last in their Divsion going into last year no coach has ever won a sueprbowl with the majority of his core as backups
    ===============================================================================================================================
    Carson Wentz
    Nick Foles- Pro Bowl in 2013, 27 TD’s, 2 INT’s
    Zach Ertz
    Alshon Jeffery
    Jay Ajayi 1200+ yards previous season
    LaGarrette Blount- more than solid RB with Super Bowl experience
    The defense had almost all of the previous years starters, or guys who started for other teams like Jernigan.
    Kelce, Brooks, and Johnson on the line were all long term starters. Wisniewski a solid vet who started 6 games at guard the year before, Vaital started 7 games the year before. Teams play with injuries and lose guys along the way all the time. The Packers lost more starters when they won the Super Bowl in the 2010 season. The Eagles are one of several teams to win a Super Bowl with a back-up QB.
    ******
    Blount is garbage kelce is washed up you literally named a couple of decent players. The 0-16 browns had 7 good players the worst teams in football history have at least 7 or 8 good players . Like I said there is a reason eagles were picked to fo

  19. srg608 says:
    November 25, 2018 at 10:28 pm
    There are a lot of jealous haters here. The Eagles are still the Champs til February:
    No one seems willing to acknowledge the obvious, the Eagles have lost more man games to injuries than any team in the league this year and it’s not even close:
    IR
    M Wallace
    J Ajayi
    M Hollins
    R Rodgers
    D Barnett
    R Darby
    R McLeod
    P Worrilow
    C Maragos
    J Perkins
    E Bouka
    And have had other players not on IR miss Significant Games or forced to play at a diminished capacity by playing thru injuries:
    D Sproles – played 1 game
    S Jones – missed all or parts of 4 games
    J Mills – missed 3 games
    J Peters – playing thru torn biceps
    L Johnson – playing thru torn MCL
    J Kelce – dislocated Elbow
    A Jeffries – missed 3 games
    T Jernigan – hasn’t played yet this year
    A Maddox – knee injury – out TBD
    J Hicks – leg injury out TBD
    R Douglas – knee injury out TBD
    Show me a roster more devastated by injury. No one can win with so many backup players off the street.
    ==============================================================================================================================================
    Pretty common by this time of the year.

  20. frank booth says:
    November 25, 2018 at 8:45 pm
    Andrew Walters says:
    November 25, 2018 at 8:19 pm
    frank booth says:
    November 25, 2018 at 8:06 pm
    *******
    Notice how you said plenty of talent and gave no players. Eagles have the worst roster in the nfl they were picked to finish last in their Divsion going into last year no coach has ever won a sueprbowl with the majority of his core as backups
    ===============================================================================================================================
    Carson Wentz
    Nick Foles- Pro Bowl in 2013, 27 TD’s, 2 INT’s
    Zach Ertz
    Alshon Jeffery
    Jay Ajayi 1200+ yards previous season
    LaGarrette Blount- more than solid RB with Super Bowl experience
    The defense had almost all of the previous years starters, or guys who started for other teams like Jernigan.
    Kelce, Brooks, and Johnson on the line were all long term starters. Wisniewski a solid vet who started 6 games at guard the year before, Vaital started 7 games the year before. Teams play with injuries and lose guys along the way all the time. The Packers lost more starters when they won the Super Bowl in the 2010 season. The Eagles are one of several teams to win a Super Bowl with a back-up QB.
    ********
    The packers entire roster was A million times better than the eagles and they had aaron Rodgers as their qb you dope not a backup qb

  21. I agree with Frank Booth except for one fact, “Stop trying to build some fantastic underdog story that didn’t exist. Pederson did a good job with a team with lesser expectations.” No team has ever been a one seed and the underdog in all playoff games. This is what it means to be an underdog. Remember Maurice Jones Drew? Eagles wil not win another game….(after Wentz went down). The playoff run was a fantastic underdog story.

    As for all the Patriot haters, yes Bill B. is the greatest coach, agreed, but stop whining about losing last year.

  22. The greatest coach in the history of sports has Carson Wentz back, plays in the weakest division in the NFL. They are 5-6. Great year last year, not so much this year.

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