PFT’s Week 14 picks

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Last week, MDS and I agreed on all 16 games. We should have disagreed on at least some.

We finished the week at 9-7 each, putting me at 121-71 (63 percent) for the year and MDS at 118-74 (61.4 percent).

Before exploring this week’s picks (or after), check out our weekly best bets video. Last week, I was 2-1 against the spread. MDS was 0-3.

Jaguars at Titans

MDS’s take: This is not exactly the kind of late-season game FOX was hoping for when it broke the bank for the Thursday Night Football package, but those are the breaks. I think the Titans win this one to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

MDS’s pick: Titans 21, Jaguars 20.

Florio’s take: The schedule is favorable but can the Titans show enough consistency to nail down the No. 6 seed? Maybe not, but they should be able to find a way to win against a more-down-than-up Jaguars team.

Florio’s pick: Titans 16, Jaguars 10.


Jets at Bills

MDS’s take: Neither of these teams is going anywhere, but the Bills seem to be trending in a better direction than the Jets.

MDS’s pick: Bills 20, Jets 10.

Florio’s take: Josh Allen quietly is blossoming into a star, and the Jets are loudly falling apart.

Florio’s pick: Bills 27, Jets 17.


Giants at Washington

MDS’s take: Eli Manning could tie Brett Favre for the second-most losses for a starting quarterback in NFL history, but he’s playing Mark Sanchez.

MDS’s pick: Giants 21, Washington 14.

Florio’s take: Mark Sanchez gets thrust into the starting lineup on a short week against a Giants team that seems to be determined to squander a once-prime draft spot.

Florio’s pick: Giants 27, Washington 17.


Saints at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: The Bucs have been playing better the last couple weeks, and the Saints turned in an ugly performance in their loss to the Cowboys. But I just don’t see the Saints losing again to Tampa Bay.

MDS’s pick: Saints 30, Buccaneers 20.

Florio’s take: The Bucs surprised the Saints in Week One. The Saints will be ready for it this time.

Florio’s pick: Saints 34, Buccaneers 24.


Patriots at Dolphins

MDS’s take: Tom Brady hasn’t played well in Miami through the years, but the Patriots should pull out a close one on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 21, Dolphins 20.

Florio’s take: The Dolphins have had New England’s number when playing in Miami in recent years, and the Patriots finally are paying attention.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 24, Dolphins 16.


Ravens at Chiefs

MDS’s take: The Ravens are 3-0 with Lamar Jackson as their starting quarterback, but they haven’t faced an opponent nearly as good as the Chiefs. The run-first offense Baltimore is employing with Jackson won’t be able to keep up with Kansas City.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 31, Ravens 17.

Florio’s take: A sneaky great December game for which the home team won’t want a January rematch.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 27, Ravens 24.


Colts at Texans

MDS’s take: This is a must-win for the Colts, and I don’t think they’re going to win it. The Texans’ league-best winning streak will extend to 10 games.

MDS’s pick: Texans 20, Colts 17.

Florio’s take: The Texans began their nine-game winning streak with a memorable overtime win over the Colts. Houston has an easier time of it during the rematch.

Florio’s pick: Texans 30, Colts 24.


Falcons at Packers

MDS’s take: Two teams that thought they were playoff contenders are far, far from contention. I’ll take the home team to win one in Joe Philbin’s first game as head coach.

MDS’s pick: Packers 24, Falcons 21.

Florio’s take: Less than two years after these teams met for a spot in the Super Bowl, they’re both falling apart. The Packers benefit from the interim coach bump.

Florio’s pick: Packers 30, Falcons 20.


Panthers at Browns

MDS’s take: I keep thinking the Panthers are sure to turn things around, and I keep being wrong. I guess I’m a slow learner.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 21, Browns 20.

Florio’s take: Carolina’s four-game slide began in the stadium of an AFC North team. Can it end in another one? At this point, the Browns may be the better team.

Florio’s pick: Browns 27, Panthers 23.


Broncos at 49ers

MDS’s take: The Broncos still have a great chance of winning out and making the playoffs. They should win easily in San Francisco.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 28, 49ers 13.

Florio’s take: The banged-up Broncos have an outside shot at the playoffs. The 49ers would be better off folding the tents and improving their draft stock.

Florio’s pick: Broncos 24, 49ers 13.


Bengals at Chargers

MDS’s take: The Chargers are probably not going to catch the Chiefs in the AFC West, but they might just be the second-best team in the conference.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 31, Bengals 17.

Florio’s take: The Chargers can’t look past this one, with a short-week Kansas City showdown looming.

Florio’s pick: Chargers 34, Bengals 17.


Lions at Cardinals

MDS’s take: Both of these teams stink, but the game is a “big” one for the 2019 NFL draft order. I think the Cardinals win their second in a row.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 23, Lions 20.

Florio’s take: The win over Green Bay likely secured a second season for Steve Wilks. Which is good for Wilks, because the Lions are better than their 4-8 record suggests.

Florio’s pick: Lions 24, Cardinals 17.


Steelers at Raiders

MDS’s take: The Steelers should bounce back in a big way from a disappointing loss.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 31, Raiders 10.

Florio’s take: The Steelers can’t afford to slip, with the Patriots and Saints up next and the Ravens breathing on their necks.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 31, Raiders 17.


Eagles at Cowboys

MDS’s take: First place in the NFC East is on the line, and I like the home team to more or less wrap up the division.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 21, Eagles 20.

Florio’s take: The Eagles have won two in a row, but the next three opponents are a combined 26-9. First up, a team that already beat the Eagles on their own field.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 24, Eagles 20.


Rams at Bears

MDS’s take: I’m tempted to pick the Bears to pull the upset, but I just think the Rams’ defense is going to be too much for Mitchell Trubisky in his return from a shoulder injury.

MDS’s pick: Rams 21, Bears 17.

Florio’s take: The Rams managed only 23 points on a cold day in Denver. It will be a cold night in Chicago, and the Rams will have an even harder time scoring points.

Florio’s pick: Bears 24, Rams 21.


Vikings at Seahawks

MDS’s take: This is a big one in the NFC wild card race, and I’m expecting the Seahawks to win and show their “rebuilding” season is actually a playoff season, while the Vikings lose and suffer a big blow to their hopes of getting back to the playoffs.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 30, Vikings 17.

Florio’s take: It’s desperation time for the Vikings, who may be abandoning John DeFilippo in Seattle if he abandons the run, again.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 24, Seahawks 22.

60 responses to “PFT’s Week 14 picks

  1. Saints over Bucs – Bucs one of 2 teams to beat the Saints BUT that was under Fitzmagic which is also why the Bucs offensive stats are embellished because of Fitz high yardage passing the 1st few games.. Saints show no mercy and Redeems their earlier loss…

    Packers over Falcons – the Falcons have not been able to overcome injuries and they struggle to protect Ryan… Oh, and they play in Lambeau…

    Browns over Panthers – Cam’s shoulder is hurting the team losing several in a row and the Browns are finding new life lately….

  2. Titans over Jaguars

    Bills over Jets

    Giants over Redskins

    Buccs over Saints – 1st upset

    Patriots over Dolphins

    Chiefs over Ravens – The Ravens could pull off the upset, but their number 1 scoring defense would have to show up.

    Texans over Colts

    Falcons over Packers

    Panthers over Browns

    Broncos over Niners

    Chargers over Bengals

    Lions over Cardinals

    Raiders over Steelers – 2nd upset; the Raiders just scored 33 points against the Chiefs despite a few fumbles

    Cowboys over Eagles

    Rams over Bears

    Seahawks over Vikings

  3. If I was trying to be impartial, I’d pick the Cowboys too. But I’m not impartial. I’m a homer and I own it. Eagles win 30-17. #FDallas. #Believe #FlyEaglesFly #WentzWagon

  4. The Raiders beating the Steelers is not so out of the ordinary. The fact that they scored 31 points against the Chiefs with 3 fumbles lost is pretty incredible. If they keep the score close throughout the game, the Raiders will win. It’s always those non-playoff contenders that give it their all against good teams.

  5. C’mon Florio…the Bears will hold the Rams offense to 21 points? And we won’t even be close enough for an extra field goal?? Give me a break.

    Rams roll 31-20 with a defensive TD (pick six)

  6. Florio’s take: Carolina’s four-game slide began in the stadium of an AFC North team. Can it end in another one? At this point, the Browns may be the better team.
    =======================================================================

    I need to buy a lottery ticket today!

  7. Many of these late season losses by the Pats in Miami were due to being banged up, resting guys or not needing the game. None of those come into play Sunday. I think the Pats have had about enough hearing about this. Easy win.

  8. tyelee says:
    December 6, 2018 at 12:51 pm

    Packers over Falcons – the Falcons have not been able to overcome injuries and they struggle to protect Ryan… Oh, and they play in Lambeau…

    __________________________________________________________________

    This game is such a coin flip. Both teams have quite a few injuries. Rodgers is leading the league in throwaways and has a completion percentage lower than Baker Mayfield, Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota, and Case Keenum. They’ve scored just 6 points in the 2nd half of the last five games. Needless to say, he’s not having a good season. Matt Ryan has thrown 25 touchdowns to 5 interceptions with a passer-rating of 109. Julio Jones is ranked 4th in receptions and is leading the league in yards per game. I’m sticking with the Falcons.

  9. 4 games with a difference of opinion. Better than last week where you guys picked all the games the same! I like seeing more upset picks than the usual bland, favorite wins with ease or closely. As a Patriots fan it hurts to say this but New England is prone to duds in Miami, I wouldnt be surprised if they lost. Its well documented and surprising people dont pick Miami more, cold weather teams dont fare as well in warm weather and vice versa. Brady has been having those duds there regardless of who is coaching Miami. Also I know Dallas looks good but is it really that shocking to see Philly pull off a win? They are basically playing for the division and Philly needs the win more.

  10. Florio’s take: Dolphins have had New England’s number when playing in Miami in recent years
    —————————
    And probably more secret recordings of Brady’s calls which Phins used to use both to get the jump on Brady and mimick to cause false starts. As admitted by Zach Thomas! And which the NFL did nothing. And then of course there was the repeat of Shula’s old mudgate trick again last year.

  11. I don’t think Raiders fans realized that when I kept calling you a 4-12 team during the offseason, I was trying to do you a favor.

  12. I would like to see a small enhancement to Mike and MDS’ picks – list the team’s record next to its name. For example, instead of Jaguars at Titans, it would be Jags (4-8) at Titans (6-6).

  13. lmao yet again at florios picks…..and lmao who thumbs down my comment last week that said the saints and bears would both lose…..go ahead and check, it’s still there.

  14. It will be interesting to see whether, if the Ravens get behind and need to throw the ball, Harbaugh brings in Flacco. If the Ravens get in a situation where they have to throw the ball down field, I’ll take Flacco over LJ. LJ just isn’t that type of QB yet.

  15. That run first offense of Baltimore keeps the other offense off the field, it’s called winning TOP. It’s also helped give the Defense a breather and time to rest unlike a lot of the 3 and outs they used to have and were gassed out by the 3rd quarter. Not saying they will win, but 31-17…come on, it’s going to be closer than people think.

  16. No way NE loses in Miami. No way. IN even seasons, they destroy them. In odd seasons, with injuries everywhere, yes, they struggle.

    Been like this for years.

    Miami’s 30th ranked rushing D is about to be tuned up by the Pats strong run game.

  17. People underestimate the Bucs against their divisional rivals. Tampa Bay has the 30th ranked scoring defense in the league and yet, they still find ways to shutdown good offenses. If the game is close, the Bucs could pull away with the win. This is one of those games fans are sleeping on.

  18. If the Cowboys can do it to the Saints, the Ravens can do it to the Chiefs and the Bears can do it to the Rams.

    Of those two pairings, I think the Ravens stand the best chance against the Chiefs. The Chiefs are going to miss Hunt more than they know, and more than we’ve seen. Bill Belichick, thinking ahead, must be pleased that they cut their hardest player to game-plan for. Chiefs won’t make the Super Bowl.

    Texans are worse than their record, but their easy schedule will slide them into their first-round playoff loss without much difficulty.

  19. Noah Powell says:
    December 6, 2018 at 1:38 pm
    The Seahawks will lose. They are extremely overrated.
    ======================================

    Thinking they will lose is fine and not at all ridiculous. Minny is still more than capable of putting up an offensive explosion and playing stifling defense when their respective units on firing on all cylinders.

    But to say the seahawks are ‘extremely overrated’ when no one expected ANYTHING from them and they are instead knocking on the door of a playoff birth and have played every single contender they’ve faced close…well that is just delusional.

  20. joshgordonsbong says:
    December 6, 2018 at 1:41 pm
    lmao yet again at florios picks…..and lmao who thumbs down my comment last week that said the saints and bears would both lose…..go ahead and check, it’s still there.
    ———————
    I don’t remember my posts from an hour ago and you’re living off of a prediction you made last week? Who cares?

  21. Dallas is now that team nobody wants to face. How’s this LB core for you:

    Leighton Vander Esch, Jaylon Smith, Sean Lee

    With the youngest roster in the league, Dallas was quietly building a dynasty. Showing signs of breakout.

  22. tylawspick6 says:
    December 6, 2018 at 1:58 pm
    No way NE loses in Miami. No way. IN even seasons, they destroy them. In odd seasons, with injuries everywhere, yes, they struggle.
    ——–
    Superstitious much? Were you sitting or standing the last time NE scored a TD? I suggest you do whichever for the rest of the season.

  23. Eagles season is over already anyway. They should just accept it, unlike the Giants. Lose out and get a better draft pick.

    There’s no way they will beat both the Cowboys and Rams on the road. Let alone also beating the 9-3 Texans.

  24. I am a huge Steelers fan and have been for many years. This game scares me because Tomlin does not have his teams prepared to play against teams with records similar to the Raiders. If there is an upset special, this one is it but I think we will win a close one.

  25. somefans says:
    December 6, 2018 at 2:03 pm

    Dolphins have won the last 4 of 5 in Miami. Brady cheating is neutralized here. Dolphins by 3.

    _______________________________________________________________

    I hate the Patriots as much as the next guy but we have no reason to believe that they’ll lose there this season. Yes, they struggle to play there sometimes, but each year is different. The Dolphins have the 20th ranked scoring defense giving up on average, 25 points per game. Their pass defense is ranked 21st, they have the 30th ranked rushing defense, and they rank 21st in total yards given up. They rank 7th in takeaways, which is surprisingly good, but rank 29th in total yards of offense. NE is going to run all over them left and right.

  26. “The Dolphins have had New England’s number when playing in Miami in recent years, and the Patriots finally are paying attention.”

    That’s the silly comment of the day the Pats always “pay attention”. Division teams always play each other hard, its going to be 80 degrees in Miami and currently in the 30s in . Foxboro and its been cold here for over a month, and some teams just seem to rise to the occasion against others.

  27. purpleguy says:
    December 6, 2018 at 1:32 pm
    After Buffalo beat my Vikes, I no longer have any expectations
    ————————————-
    I feel your pain…..Arizona killed my last one!!!

  28. Dolphins 20 Patriots 14 unfortunately Brady will get hit a lot and the Fins will control the clock but the Pats will bounce back next week. Falcons 23 Packers 16 Packers suck right now and will continue to lose. Finally, Chiefs 38 Ravens 20 expect Mahomes to go off.

  29. Tanker fans finally have something to crow about. “We scored 33 pts against the Chiefs 27th rank defense!” (Of course, they still lost)

    Honestly fellas, it is not going to make any difference against the Steelers 16th ranked defense. BTW the Steelers aren’t good, but they are still good enough.

  30. It would be funny if the Chargers found a way to win the AFC West. Most fans wouldn’t see that coming. The Chiefs are due for at least one more loss. It is a must for LA to beat them in their second match-up coming here soon, though. Perhaps, the Seahawks will also beat them in Seattle. It could happen…

  31. harrisonhits2 says:
    December 6, 2018 at 2:37 pm
    “The Dolphins have had New England’s number when playing in Miami in recent years, and the Patriots finally are paying attention.”

    That’s the silly comment of the day the Pats always “pay attention”. Division teams always play each other hard, its going to be 80 degrees in Miami and currently in the 30s in . Foxboro and its been cold here for over a month, and some teams just seem to rise to the occasion against others.
    ——————————–
    agreed. per Christian Fauria yesterday – “when we got the schedule in New England, we first checked the bye week. Second when was the Miami game in Miami.”

    When he was with Seattle — it was bye week and then San Diego or Oakland.

    Every team has their white whale

  32. patsfan1820 says:
    December 6, 2018 at 2:57 pm
    Dolphins 20 Patriots 14 unfortunately Brady will get hit a lot and the Fins will control the clock but the Pats will bounce back next week. Falcons 23 Packers 16 Packers suck right now and will continue to lose. Finally, Chiefs 38 Ravens 20 expect Mahomes to go off.

    1 7 Rate This

    ——————-

    ^^Troll alert.

    Like I said the other day, no way this guy is a Pats fan.

  33. I won’t go so far as to pick the Ravens but I like their chances of creating a game script that doesn’t need to be a shootout. Just don’t panic if you fall behind. Keep the ball in your offense’s hands (out of the Chiefs’ offense) as much as possible, and stay within single digits. They have a chance.

  34. MDS’s pick: Cowboys 21, Eagles 20.

    Florio’s pick: Cowboys 24, Eagles 20.

    Are you kidding me, this game will be a blowout.

    America’s Team 40, Filthy Philly 16

  35. If the Colts double their score from last week they’ll still be at zero. Texans’ offense isn’t anything to get excited about but they can run the ball.

    Texans 20 Colts 0

  36. New state of the art stadium – 1 billion dollars.

    New kicker with a 72% average – 2 million dollars.

    Shiny new quarterback – 84 million dollars.

    Not winning another game this season – Priceless

  37. Russell Wilson is 46-13 at home. Kirk Cousins is 12-21 away.

    Not that there’s nothing else going on in this game, but it seems significant.

    Hard for me to imagine the Vikings winning this one at Seattle.

  38. Seattle has the best record of any team in MNF history. Largely because they don’t get those games unless they are good. Cross reference with Russell Wilson’s December record, and his record in home prime-time games, and it’s not looking good for a struggling Vikings team.

  39. Are the Packers really falling apart or did losing 30% of their starters to injury influence their won loss record? did an old stubborn play calling coach like McCarthy refuse to change with the times over his thirteen years at the helm and opposing defenses had figured him out causing him his job? his play calling left alot to be desired,lets hope the new interim coach is more innovative and opens up the offense more than super conservative MM did.

  40. Despite what many have said, the Packers are still alive in the playoff race. They can get in as the NFCN champion if the win out to go 8-7-1, the Vikings lose their next 3 then beat the Bears to go 7-8-1, and the Bears lose out to go 8-8. I agree with your picks that GB will win this week since they have their backs against the wall, they always play better in that situation (see 2014 “r-e-l-a-x” and 2016 “run the table”). Yeah it’s highly unlikely they’ll both win out and get all the help they need, but I think the Pack will at least do their part while they can. Packers 35 Falcons 14

  41. This is what will happen in the AFC

    SEEDING

    1. Kansas City
    2. Houston

    3. New England
    4. Pittsburgh

    5. San Diego
    6. Denver

    WILD CARD

    New England over Denver
    Pittsburgh over San Diego

    DIVISIONAL

    Pittsburgh over Kansas City
    New England over Houston

    CONFERENCE

    New England over Pittsburgh

  42. Titans over Jaguars
    Bills over Jets
    Redskins over Giants
    Saints over Bucs
    Dolphins over Patriots
    Chiefs over Ravens
    Texans over Colts
    Falcons over Packers
    Browns over Panthers
    Broncos over Niners
    Chargers over Bengals
    Lions over Cardinals
    Steelers over Raiders
    Eagles over Cowboys
    Rams over Bears
    Seahawks over Vikings

    14+ wins or bust

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