Aaron Rodgers avoids interceptions, but he leads the NFL in bad plays

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Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is still the best in the NFL at avoiding interceptions. Unfortunately, too often he’s avoiding interceptions at the expense of making productive plays.

We’ve noted before how Rodgers is throwing the ball away more than any other quarterback in the NFL, but there’s more to it than just that. Rodgers’ accuracy is hurting even when he isn’t trying to throw the ball away. In Sunday’s loss to the Bears, he twice missed open receivers for what should have been touchdown passes. He’s scattering the ball around the field in ways he hasn’t before, and the result is that Rodgers has thrown more incompletions than any other quarterback in the NFL.

Rodgers also avoids interceptions by taking sacks too often. In fact, if we add up every quarterback’s interceptions, incompletions, sacks and fumbles and compile them all into one stat we’ll call “bad plays,” Rodgers is actually the worst in the NFL.

Here are the quarterbacks ranked by the most bad plays in the 2018 season:
255 Aaron Rodgers
230 Case Keenum
223 Eli Manning
221 Jared Goff

It’s worth stating the obvious, that the leaders in “bad plays” are not actually the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. In fact, to lead the league in bad plays you’ll probably have to start every week, just to get an opportunity to throw that many incompletions, and the really bad quarterbacks are the ones who don’t start every week because they get benched. But a quarterback with a lot of bad plays has certainly not had a great season, and few would argue that Rodgers, Keenum and Manning have all been disappointing this year — and Goff has rapidly become disappointing after getting the season off to a great start.

Simply avoiding interceptions should not be the goal of a quarterback, and when we praise Rodgers for his league-low two interception rate this season, we’re overlooking all of his other bad plays. As Paul Noonan wrote at SB Nation’s Packers site, there is such a thing as being too careful with the ball, and that’s what Rodgers has looked like this season: He so badly wants to avoid throwing interceptions that he’ll either take a sack or throw the ball away rather than try to hit his receiver in a tight window. And hitting his receivers in a tight window is one of the things a great quarterback needs to do.

Rodgers is 35, and if his down year is just a natural part of a quarterback getting older, that would be understandable. For as impressive as it is that Tom Brady and Drew Brees continued to play at a high level long past age 35, not every quarterback ages the same way. Maybe Rodgers just isn’t destined to be as good a quarterback in his late 30s as he was when he won the Super Bowl MVP at age 27, and the regular-season MVP at age 28 and again at age 31. It happens.

The problem for the Packers is, they can no longer afford for Rodgers not to be great. Rodgers was previously on a very affordable contract, but the Packers decided this year to rip that contract up and give him a new, much more lucrative contract, even though he still had two years on his old deal. That decision now looks like a mistake, as the Packers are on the hook for a deal that sees Rodgers’ cap hits grow to $26.5 million next year, $32.6 million in 2020 and $33.5 million in 2021. It won’t be easy to build a better team around Rodgers while he’s taking up that much of the salary cap. Especially if, as he gets older, he continues to struggle with accuracy and avoiding the pass rush.

So the Packers need Rodgers to stop making so many bad plays. Even if that means throwing more interceptions.

129 responses to “Aaron Rodgers avoids interceptions, but he leads the NFL in bad plays

  1. It was a calm day in Chicago yesterday but that did not stop Rodgers from using the weather as an excuse for his bad play.

    “The wind just took that one up in the air,” Rodgers said of the second throw.

  2. Who cares. I’d rather he throw the ball away than take a sack, force a throw that isn’t there resulting in an INT, or try to run and get pummeled and injured. And when he does get sacked he’s usually surrounded by defenders. In that situation I’d rather he take the sack than try to throw it away and risk a fumble.

  3. Don’t care what anyone says. Tom Brady is the GOAT. Clutch is what matters. And that’s all Tom Brady is. Clutch. Thank you, and goodnight.

  4. Brett Favre, age 35 season (2005) – 3881 yards, 20 tds, 29 ints, 70.9 rating

    Aaron Rodgers, age 35 season – 3974 yards, 23 tds, 2 ints, 97.2 rating (2 games left)

    .. it could be a lot worse.

  5. Just having a new coach is not going to fix that garbage roster or Rodgers’ decline. I’m not sure who is going to want to take that job anyway, not only having to endure the Packer’s roster rebuild but having to manage the pouting and excuses from a declining former star QB.

  6. What if both Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy are the problem? The team could be in a world of hurt for years if they’re counting on his reputation and he can’t ever deliver on that again.

  7. I’m glad this is finally being tracked, because the league (wrongly in my opinion) has shifted heavily towards valuing completion percentage and low INT percentage. Rodgers has played terribly this year, despite what his stats say. Same with Manning, Derek Carr, Carson Wentz, etc.

    I’ll take Andrew Luck over them all any day of the week. The guy gives his team the best chance to win week in and week out, by challenging the defense all over the field. Derek Carr I think went 8 or 9 straight weeks without an INT, and his team averaged 10 pts per game in that time. The league needs a coaching enema. Brett Favre continuously threw more than an INT per game, but offset it with the benefits of challenging the defense over the course of 60 minutes. Believe it or not, teams used to be able to score and win without their QB throwing 70% and having a 30/3 TD/INT ratio.

  8. He should never be in the conversation of who the greatest quarterback is, he’s just a clown leading a clown franchise

  9. Getting old at the age Brees, Brady and Manning where at their best… Granted Rodgers has probably already taken more unnecessary big hits as a career total then they ever have. Cannot imagine that right collar bone injury isn’t playing a role. Consecutive years with big injuries is taking it’s toll.

  10. I’m a Bears fan, and enjoyed yesterday’s win very much, but any stat where you say Rodgers is worse than Case Keenum by 25 plays is a garbage and meaningless stat. He’s a top 3 quarterback who was shackled with a terrible coach who squandered his potential. NFL fans should’ve been treated to 1 if not 2 GB-NE Super Bowls. This year is an anomaly and with a fresh start the division should be much more competitive with GB not losing every road game.

  11. What if both Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy are the problem? The team could be in a world of hurt for years if they’re counting on his reputation and he can’t ever deliver on that again.
    =====

    Its possible Rodgers will never be the same.

    I’ll never understand why the Packers were falling all over themselves to pay him after his injury?

  12. not the GOAT

    Not in the playoffs…..

    Not even a winning season……

    But Highest paid football player in league history!!!!

    At least he is at the top of his game in one area!!!!

  13. mnsportsapologist says:
    December 17, 2018 at 12:53 pm
    Rodgers, Cousins, Matt Ryan, etc… Big contracts…mediocre teams

    —————-

    You can unfortunately add Stafford to this list too.

  14. It’s hard not to notice the decline in accuracy this year. Some of that is on the rookie and new receivers, but much seems to be squarely on Rodgers. Off year or larger issue of decline? Time will tell.

  15. “I’m not sure who is going to want to take that job anyway, not only having to endure the Packer’s roster rebuild but having to manage the pouting and excuses from a declining former star QB.”

    Someone who wants a guaranteed 5-6 million a year+ for 3-4 years, that’s who. There have been far worse teams than this that coaches have taken over in the past and will again.

  16. “Brett Favre, age 35 season (2005) – 3881 yards, 20 tds, 29 ints, 70.9 rating

    Aaron Rodgers, age 35 season – 3974 yards, 23 tds, 2 ints, 97.2 rating (2 games left)

    .. it could be a lot worse.”

    If Rodgers played under 2005 rules this year I expect those numbers would be a lot closer.

  17. The most expensive QB’s in the league will be home watching some of the cheapest QB’s in the league during the playoffs. I rarely agree with Deion Sanders, but, he is 100% correct that QB’s are making a disproportionate amount of money vs. their contribution. Syill the most important and difficult position in sports, but its out of control.

  18. The QB and Team are Overrated. Keep polishing those trophies you keep crowing about because you wont be in the playoff next year either. The Bears and Vikings are much more well rounded and just better teams.

  19. I said it before I’ll say it again, the Packers have more problems than Mike McCarthy.

    McCarthy didn’t win all those games and a super bowl and suddenly become inept.

    The cheese factory needs some additional renovations.

  20. It’s about time the media said the obvious about Rodgers mediocre play. No interceptions means nothing when you’re 5-8-1, and fighting for last place in the division. It just means you’re afraid to take risks and more worried about personal stats than winning games at all costs.

  21. Despite all these stats the Viking trolls like to distort and cherry pick, one fact stands: Rodgers leads the league with a 23-2 TD-INT ratio.

  22. Not fully buying into to this “bad plays” stat. I think a really big problem is his lack of trust in his pass catchers not named Davonte Adams rather than a diminishing skill set.

  23. His mechanics just aren’t the same this year. It is not being mentioned, but he does have 13 screws in the collarbone on his throwing side. His accuracy just isn’t the same. Throw in an injured left knee that has been been an issue for most of the season, and he probably knows he can’t hit the tight window that is required on so many throws.

    Will be really interesting to see if the off-season helps, or the Packers are in deep trouble for the next 3-5 seasons at QB.

  24. aarons444 says:
    December 17, 2018 at 12:52 pm

    Brett Favre, age 35 season (2005) – 3881 yards, 20 tds, 29 ints, 70.9 rating
    Aaron Rodgers, age 35 season – 3974 yards, 23 tds, 2 ints, 97.2 rating (2 games left)

    .. it could be a lot worse.
    ——————–
    Do Favre the year before (2004) at age 34. Current era and rules benefit it more, you can’t just pick that year on age as it was a real bad team too.

  25. This is the problem with a me-first stat guy like Rodgers. Apparently, he doesn’t care about this impact on his team, as long as he doesn’t throw an interception.

    I’ll take a team first guy like Brady or Brees over a me-first guy like Rodgers or Ryan, every day of the week.

  26. 6burgh says:

    December 17, 2018 at 12:52 pm

    Don’t care what anyone says. Tom Brady is the GOAT. Clutch is what matters. And that’s all Tom Brady is. Clutch. Thank you, and goodnight.

    So……. how clutch was he yesterday?

  27. sirlurksalot says:
    December 17, 2018 at 1:03 pm

    “…This year is an anomaly and with a fresh start the division should be much more competitive with GB not losing every road game.”

    ÷÷÷÷÷÷

    Going 0-7 on the road is not an anomaly, it is a trend.

  28. Thank goodness we have the memories and history of past successes. I’ve always said it is enough for me, more than my fair share actually. Every successful season is frosting on the cake, sometimes they come without frosting….like this year. No big deal.

    If the Packers never win anything substantive ever again, I’m good. How many fans of how many teams can say that?

  29. I said it before I’ll say it again, the Packers have more problems than Mike McCarthy.

    McCarthy didn’t win all those games and a super bowl and suddenly become inept.
    =====

    So.. you skipped Packers Playoff games after 2010??…

  30. Hans Gruber says:
    December 17, 2018 at 12:57 pm

    He should never be in the conversation of who the greatest quarterback is, he’s just a clown leading a clown franchise
    _________________________________________________

    Said the Vikings fan…

  31. aarons444 says:
    December 17, 2018 at 12:52 pm
    Brett Favre, age 35 season (2005) – 3881 yards, 20 tds, 29 ints, 70.9 rating

    Aaron Rodgers, age 35 season – 3974 yards, 23 tds, 2 ints, 97.2 rating (2 games left)

    .. it could be a lot worse.
    *****
    It also could be a lot better.
    Brett Favre, age 39 season (2009) – 4202 yards, 33 tds, 7 ints, 107.2 rating

  32. The most expensive QB’s in the league will be home watching some of the cheapest QB’s in the league during the playoffs.
    =====

    That is a bummer for Jimmy Garoppolo..

    Hopefully he’ll be healthy next year.

  33. usdcoyotesfan says:
    December 17, 2018 at 1:17 pm
    Despite all these stats the Viking trolls like to distort and cherry pick, one fact stands: Rodgers leads the league with a 23-2 TD-INT ratio.
    *****
    Apparently Aaron’s league leading stats also gets you 5 wins in 14 games, no road wins, no consecutive victories, a home loss to the Cardinals and another third place NFC North finish and no playoffs for the second straight year. So there is also that.

  34. If the Packers never win anything substantive ever again, I’m good. How many fans of how many teams can say that?

    Probably nobody because most people if you’re like me, you don’t sit around and think about the good ol days but strive to be good every day, every week, every year until your time is up.

  35. It also could be a lot better.
    Brett Favre, age 39 season (2009) – 4202 yards, 33 tds, 7 ints, 107.2 rating
    =====

    Yep, sure could;

    Rodgers 2011 – 4643 yards, 45 tds, 6 ints, 122.5 rating (best season…. EVER)

  36. Anybody defending Rodgers is looking through rose colored glasses and previous years. The article made a very good point and gave stats for this year. And this year, Rodgers is the worse QB in the nfl for bad plays. How can you deny that? The article gave the numbers. Reminisce all you want of seasons past, but this year that dude has sucked.

  37. If the Packers never win anything substantive ever again, I’m good. How many fans of how many teams can say that?
    ======

    ^^^^ THAT, ladies and gentleman, is why McCarthy survived that 2014 NFCC Game meltdown…

  38. Wow just getting it now. I got it three years ago when Rodgers and the pack were 5-0 and motoring along, went into KC and they hund one on the packers. Rodgers had two interceptions in the first half and the pack and rodgers sucked the whole game. Why?
    Easy, KC saw Rodgers was picking apart zone defenses along the way. Thriving on the open spaces so they went to man and drove him insane. He so hates to toss interception he froze, threw the ball away and twice got caught trying to thread the needle and lost. Hey this is nothing new. He is paranoid about interceptions and teams should have learned that by now.

  39. shutupbrees says:
    December 17, 2018 at 12:56 pm
    I’m glad this is finally being tracked, because the league (wrongly in my opinion) has shifted heavily towards valuing completion percentage and low INT percentage.
    ###

    Rodgers does have the low INT %, but he has one of the worst completion percentages in the NFL.

    Which means that many of his passes were so far off target they were uncatchable by anyone on the field of play.

  40. Brees can be forgiven for wondering why the many ill-informed PFT critics of his cap number have nothing to say about Rodgers’ number and its effect on the Packers. Drew’s team is doing pretty well despite the “burden” his “greed” has inflicted on it.

  41. There’s a lot more number crunching and analysis to do for this article to be thorough. How do we know every sack is attributable to Rodgers not wanting to throw and interception? What if he did throw more interceptions, but half of those were returned for TDs, or even inside the Packers own 20 yard line?

    Way too many variables or “what if”s to make the jumps you’re making here.

  42. If he just allows himself to be sacked, he can blame the o-line. If he tries to throw it away and gets picked (like Brady did yesterday),he can blame the weather. If nothing’s going right at all, he can have the HC fired. Rodgers seems to be all about himself. When Brady screws up, at least he owns it. Same for all of the Patriots…

  43. dougchillin says:
    December 17, 2018 at 1:17 pm

    Not fully buying into to this “bad plays” stat. I think a really big problem is his lack of trust in his pass catchers not named Davonte Adams rather than a diminishing skill set.
    ————————————————————————————

    Brees is throwing the ball to Mike Thomas, 3 average tight ends and a bunch of practice squad guys at WR.

  44. “Bad plays”? Ok. I personally think Rodgers is overrated. Great, but overrated. But to suggest throwing the ball away to avoid a sack is the same as taking a sack is asinine.

  45. Well, I love Brady but I want his name in there to jar him. He’s playing below his norm. But that’s the problem, he’s in a league of his own.

  46. Packers management and their fans will not admit that the golden boy has crested and is on his way to mediocrity.

  47. Brees is throwing the ball to Mike Thomas, 3 average tight ends and a bunch of practice squad guys at WR.
    ======

    Mark Ingram is better than any Packer RB Rodgers has played with… to say nothing of Kamara

  48. He’s been playing hurt and “gimpy” all year.
    Does not have a running game, Most of receivers are gone.
    The “D” has not heart.
    Kind of hard to blame it all on AR.

  49. “It won’t be easy to build a better team around Rodgers while he’s taking up that much of the salary cap.”

    Wrong. The salary cap will keep going up and those numbers will not look very big soon. With the cap just announced at $190m for next year, teams can afford to pay several players big money and fill in the rest with small salaries. The income discrepancy in the NFL for top players and average ones is huge.

  50. Some clown just tried to compare Rodgers WRs to Brees WRs, who he thinks are apparently “practice squad players.” Except they’re not, otherwise they wouldn’t be on an active NFL roster. Rodgers on the other hand has no Jordy Nelson (I knew right away it was a huge mistake to let him go) and Cobb is always injured, so with no Nelson or Cobb to draw coverage, Adams is always double teamed, leaving Rodgers with a bunch of novice rookies.

  51. Viking fans in here talking about “vindication”….hilarious. Your team just paid $84m to have at least three more losses than you did last year under CK. But apparently you’re far more concerned about what AR is or isn’t doing. What an obsessed fan base.

  52. I think the real problem is Rodger’s trust in his receivers. He trusted Jordy implicitly and would throw him the 50/50 balls. Now he’s gone and the only one AR trusts is Adams (with Cobb being out so much). And when Adams is covered up Rodgers just won’t gamble on the rookies. Lots of bad plays for sure, but he could have a bunch of fumbles, ints, and pick 6’s like a nearly as well compensated qb to the west who is constantly saved by his defense.

  53. This would explain a lot. I wasn’t aware of his INT-free streak. But, in a lot of games, he seemed to throw a lot of passes low and away, often with the receiver not making the catch and it ending a drive. But, if he was more worried about his INT-free streak, it would follow that he might throw passes where only the receiver could get it, even if it led to a lower completion percentage and/or killed drives.

  54. File this whole argument under the Stupid Stats File. It means nothing. The only thing which matters is that age 35, Aaron Rodgers is still better than 90% of the QB’s in the league.

  55. The truth is if he gets 1 more Int he looses a large bonus from the State of Farmers football club. I mean skip a few practices to make a few more commercials. At least Peyton Manning is a hilarious actor AND he’s in a band. State of Farmers is just a lame duck company waiting for some other actor to come along. DeShone Kizer, Allstate is on line 2!

  56. GOAT talk makes me sick. Most people bringing it up don’t know who Johny Unitas, Bart Starr, Daryl Lamonica or Roger Staubach are. The way the game evolves it is impossible to label one as the GOAT….

  57. Rodgers is still a top 5 QB, his team is a bit limited at WR, and MM’s offensive system was out-dated, but something else does appear to be missing from his performance compared to past years. The O-line is good and he had a run game this year. Maybe age and injuries are finally taking their toll, or maybe he was just so damn good in the past that we’re all spoiled. While I may want my team to smoke the Pack every year, it’s still a bit weird watching the decline.

  58. Just for fun, add Inc., Int., and Sacks then divide by pass attempts to get a bad play percentage per attempt. I am a Brady guy, but this fun stat shows how much better Brees has played this year than anybody else. Brees is #1 by a mile, Brady is #7, Rogers is #24 between Keenum and Dalton.

  59. glac1 says:
    December 17, 2018 at 3:07 pm
    GOAT talk makes me sick. Most people bringing it up don’t know who Johny Unitas, Bart Starr, Daryl Lamonica or Roger Staubach are. The way the game evolves it is impossible to label one as the GOAT….
    ==========================================================================================
    I agree. But Daryl Lamonica doesn’t belong anywhere in a conversation with the other three.

  60. “Most people bringing it up don’t know who Johnny Unitas, Bart Starr, Daryl Lamonica or Roger Staubach are”.
    __________

    Actually every serious football fan knows who those gentlemen are. Simply being old doesn’t mean that you know more than anyone else.

  61. I wonder if two rookie receivers, a banged up tight end that hit the wall,an injury riddled offensive line and a defense that struggles at times have anything to do with this. Despite that they have been in almost every game in the fourth quarter this year…. Overall the Packers have a lot of youth and if they develop could be in for a pretty quick turn around.

  62. Packers management and their fans will not admit that the golden boy has crested and is on his way to mediocrity.
    ======

    I’m happy to admit it. Well.. I WILL admit it.

    How does the story end? Same as it did with #4?? That’s the shame in this. We just read this story. Nobody liked the ending. Now not even a decade later its the same EXACT scenario?

  63. michaelcherittochiefs says:

    August 29, 2018 at 3:53 pm

    Best quarterback to ever play the game. I see a superbowl in each of those years. He is worth more than this.
    ________________________

    One year down, four more Super Bowls to go. Still think he’s worth more than that contract?

  64. No Muhammad Wilkerson

    No Nick Perry

    No Kevin King

    No Bryan Bulaga

    No Kenny Clark

    No Geronimo Allison

    No Mike Daniels

    Those are 7 vital players to that team that were on the field week 1 when the Packers beat the Bears and were not on the field yesterday when the Packers lost by just 7 pts to the Bears. I think a lot of you are overreacting a bit out of hate for the Packers, trying to act like the Packers are now a horrible team that will be bad for years to come.

  65. milkcan44 says:
    December 17, 2018 at 3:34 pm

    Please keep telling Aaron Rodgers that he stinks. I’ll gladly watch the result.

    ______________________________

    It may not be long before Packer fans are telling him that he stinks.

  66. He wanted to be paid. That gets you 12 rookies on the team. I never understood why they signed him at his age when he was signed until 2019. Then they had the ability to franchise him at least two more seasons after that. So they have him until 2021. After that he is 38-39 years old and even if he is still above average, no big deal in losing him and moving on to the next QB of the future.

  67. mdd913 says:
    December 17, 2018 at 1:58 pm
    dougchillin says:
    December 17, 2018 at 1:17 pm

    Not fully buying into to this “bad plays” stat. I think a really big problem is his lack of trust in his pass catchers not named Davonte Adams rather than a diminishing skill set.
    ————————————————————————————

    Brees is throwing the ball to Mike Thomas, 3 average tight ends and a bunch of practice squad guys at WR

    ============================================

    yes, but he also has kamara to dump screen passes to, and he can hand off to either kamara or ingram. brees is surrounded by weapons, were not buying this.

  68. Aaron Rodgers can’t carry the Packers anymore, no more covering up for bad players and bad coaches – good. So go out and get better players and better coaches and stop asking him to carry the team.

  69. Said last year the Pack is a sub 500 team with or without Rodgers. Their roster is garbage. Nice to be proven right…again.

  70. milkcan44 says:
    December 17, 2018 at 3:34 pm
    Please keep telling Aaron Rodgers that he stinks. I’ll gladly watch the result.

    ______________________

    Boy, that’ll get him going- should have told him that before the season started. I’m sure the Packers would have been heading to the Super Bowl if someone would have just said he stinks earlier in the season.

  71. I keep reading about Aaron Rodgers’ salary. He deserved every penny of what he got, in my opinion.
    You want to know about a salary that is really ridiculous?
    Josh McCown is being paid 10 million dollars this year to tutor Sam Darnold!!! You talk about ridiculous!!! That’s absurd!!!!
    Hell, if the Jets wanted a good former QB to tutor Darnold, they should have called Mark Brunell. Brunell was forced to claim bankruptcy in 2010, so he’d have taken the job for minimum wage!!!!!

  72. I thought it was odd they gave him that huge contract at an age when most qb’s start to decline. it’ll be interesting to see if he gets to play out that contract.

  73. ‘he’ll either take a sack or throw the ball away rather than try to hit his receiver in a tight window’

    That is how he got injured last year against Minnesota. He held on to the ball too long and couldn’t outrun Barr, and then he has to nerve to question why he got hit.

  74. The guy that keeps telling you guys about Rodgers’ “roster-killing” cap hit in order to get you all wound up is playing you. Rodgers’ cap hit is significantly LOWER than Cousins’ cap hit next year. In 2019, Cousins’ cap hit will be 3rd, behind only Brees and Stafford. Saint Thomas of Brady, who some people seem to think plays for free so the Pats can field a better team around him, will be 5th. Aaron Rodgers will be 8th.

    In fairness, Rodgers jumps into 1st in 2020 with a cap hit of $32.6 million while Cousins’ cap hit is “only” $31 million. I’m all good with capping an extra $1.6 million for Rodgers over Cousins and I suspect nearly everyone else would be as well.

    As always, I urge each and every one of you to check the facts for yourselves. Don’t believe me anymore than anyone else. Just check for yourselves… and going forward, maybe start fact-checking before believing everything you read from guys on the Internet.

  75. Brett Favre, age 39 season – 4202 yards, 33 TDs, 7 INTs, 107.2 rating.
    Aaron Rodgers, age 35 season – 3974 yards, 23 tds, 2 ints, 97.2 rating (2 games left)

    Favre played much better at an even older age.

  76. I think the upcoming coaching hire is going to be just the tonic that Rodgers needs to get back to his once stellar play. McCarthy, IMO, wasn’t holding him accountable any longer. His technique has gone to h*** and his body language suggests he needs a fire lit under him. His career is more than salvageable and he has just enough time to get ‘er done.

  77. Cousins has two more years on his contract with dead cap with cap hits of
    $29,000,000
    $31,000,000

    Rodgers has four more years on his contract with dead cap with cap hits of
    $26,500,000
    $32,600,000
    $33,500,000
    $37,000,000

    Rodgers is 35. Cousins is 30

  78. You conveniently left out 2023 (the last year of his contract) where he’s slated to make, and cap, $25,500,000 with NO dead cap money if he’s cut. Why am I not surprised by this?

    Rodgers is also a Super Bowl Champion, Super Bowl MVP and a two-time league MVP, with the highest career passer rating in the history of the NFL to go along with a career record of 99-56-1.

    Cousins has done a grand total of… nothing. He’s not won a single playoff game and has a career record of 33-36-2. He’s also, as you noted, going to be up for another big bite at the big purple apple after the 2020 season. Do you think he’s going to accept LESS than the $31,000,000 he’s due in 2020? With HIS history when it comes to demanding money?

    I do need you to clarify something for me, though. I want to make sure I have this right, without any room for doubt. Are you saying, as I think you’re saying, if you could trade Cousins and his contract for Rodgers and his contract, you wouldn’t do it? That you’d rather have Cousins and his contract? Is that indeed what you’re saying?

  79. expertatnfl says:
    December 17, 2018 at 7:37 pm
    Brett Favre, age 39 season – 4202 yards, 33 TDs, 7 INTs, 107.2 rating.
    Aaron Rodgers, age 35 season – 3974 yards, 23 tds, 2 ints, 97.2 rating (2 games left)
    Favre played much better at an even older age.
    =================================================================================================================
    Favre’s 4 seasons prior to his 33 TD/7 INT season:

    20 TD’s/29 INT
    18/18
    28/15
    22/22

    So, he had a better season at age 39/40 than Rodgers did at age 35/36. But Favre had 4 pretty bad seasons prior to that. And following his great season, he threw for 11 TD’s and 19 INT’s.

    So Favre played several sub-par seasons at an older age, and had a resurgence in 2009. You kind of accidentally left out those other seasons. I’m not sure what you’re point was.

  80. cheeseisfattening says:
    December 17, 2018 at 7:53 pm
    Cousins has two more years on his contract with dead cap with cap hits of
    $29,000,000
    $31,000,000

    Rodgers has four more years on his contract with dead cap with cap hits of
    $26,500,000
    $32,600,000
    $33,500,000
    $37,000,000

    Rodgers is 35. Cousins is 30

    //////

    So you think Cousins gets extended in MN?

    Otherwise who cares about his age?

  81. Throwing the ball away rather than trying to force something that just isn’t there is not a “bad” play.

    Understanding who your personnel is and knowing when and when not to take risks…it was what made Montana great and it was Favre’s fatal flaw.

  82. Remember he is coming off injury and has to live up to following the lights out performance that future HOFer Hundley put up last year. Now have we exhausted every excuse for aaron this year?

  83. cheeseisfattening says:
    December 17, 2018 at 12:52 pm

    I’m not sure who is going to want to take that job anyway, not only having to endure the Packer’s roster rebuild but having to manage the pouting and excuses from a declining former star QB.
    ————————

    You aren’t sure who would want to coach one of the greatest franchises in the NFL, that also has a top tier quarterback??

  84. The Almighty Cabbage says:
    December 17, 2018 at 9:04 pm
    You conveniently left out 2023 (the last year of his contract) where he’s slated to make, and cap, $25,500,000 with NO dead cap money if he’s cut. Why am I not surprised by this?

    Rodgers is also a Super Bowl Champion, Super Bowl MVP and a two-time league MVP, with the highest career passer rating in the history of the NFL to go along with a career record of 99-56-1.

    Cousins has done a grand total of… nothing. He’s not won a single playoff game and has a career record of 33-36-2. He’s also, as you noted, going to be up for another big bite at the big purple apple after the 2020 season. Do you think he’s going to accept LESS than the $31,000,000 he’s due in 2020? With HIS history when it comes to demanding money?

    I do need you to clarify something for me, though. I want to make sure I have this right, without any room for doubt. Are you saying, as I think you’re saying, if you could trade Cousins and his contract for Rodgers and his contract, you wouldn’t do it? That you’d rather have Cousins and his contract? Is that indeed what you’re saying?

    —————-

    No. No one in Minnesota would trade a bag of peanuts for Rodgers at this stage. 5-10 years ago? Absolutely. Now? Absolutely not.

  85. aarons444 says:
    December 17, 2018 at 12:52 pm
    Brett Favre, age 35 season (2005) – 3881 yards, 20 tds, 29 ints, 70.9 rating

    Aaron Rodgers, age 35 season – 3974 yards, 23 tds, 2 ints, 97.2 rating (2 games left)

    .. it could be a lot worse.
    ————————-

    All of this back and forth and no one called you out on the fact that Favre’s real age 35 season was actually 2004…when he threw for 4088 yards, 30 TDs, 17 INTs and a 92.4 rating. Back when a rating in the 90’s was actually a very good thing.

  86. I found myself clicking on thumbs up on this thread. And I’m a dire- hard GB fan. Reality is AR has really regressed and he needs to turn it around. Couple his poor play with TT drafting some duds (nobody left from the 2015 draft) and this is what we have. This team has few real stars (where are you Clay?) and the pieces that should be good have been too injury prone.

    If Aaron turns it around and we can finally get healthy with King, Daniels, Bulaga, Allison et al, and we hit on a couple draft picks, sign a strong FA or two, AND their rooks take a typical second year jump they’ll be right back into it. Lots of ifs. I look forward to the turnaround.

  87. andrwken says:

    So you think Cousins gets extended in MN?
    ###

    Yes I do.

    It will make more sense than extending Rodgers did (coming off serious injury and without showing that he was fully healed and ready to continue playing at a high level).

    If the Packers hadn’t extended him before the season started – would you be in favor of extending him with his current contract today – based on what he has shown this season (most bad plays in the NFL leader)…

    Rodgers new contract was written based on what he did 5 years ago – not on what he can do today.

    Letting Jordie Nelson go was a business decision that was championed by many Packer fans (regretfully in some cases). Letting TE’s go was a business decision the last two years (and most likely a 3rd year in a row after this season ends).

    With 2 first round picks in the upcoming draft, the Packers could have given serious thought to trading Rodgers (on his old contract) and gaining more draft capital and start from scratch with the rebuild.

    Rodgers new contract means that they are stuck with him for several years – hoping and praying that they can put the 5 year old magic back in the bottle…

    That sounds strange to say – “stuck with Rodgers”. But really, that’s what it is.

  88. arrowtoyourknee says:
    December 17, 2018 at 11:50 pm

    No. No one in Minnesota would trade a bag of peanuts for Rodgers at this stage. 5-10 years ago? Absolutely. Now? Absolutely not.

    ————–

    I’m sure Vikings fans were saying the same thing after Favre’s down year in 2005 when his team went 4-12. Yet you were pretty excited 4 years later when Favre came there.

  89. theyearofthecat1 says:
    December 18, 2018 at 9:15 am
    arrowtoyourknee says:
    December 17, 2018 at 11:50 pm

    No. No one in Minnesota would trade a bag of peanuts for Rodgers at this stage. 5-10 years ago? Absolutely. Now? Absolutely not.

    ————–

    I’m sure Vikings fans were saying the same thing after Favre’s down year in 2005 when his team went 4-12. Yet you were pretty excited 4 years later when Favre came there.
    ———————————

    Ummm, Brett Favre was coming in to replace Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels. Not Kirk Cousins or Case Keenum.

  90. For all the hype about this man he trails many active QBs in fourth-quarter comebacks. Check on prof-football reference.com and you will find:

    47 Brees
    44 Brady
    41 Roethlisberger
    37 Manning
    35 Ryan
    33 Stafford
    30 Rivers

    Several more in the 20s, then there is…

    19 Rodgers

    Clutch? Only a recent flurry of Hail Mary passes got him attention as great at this (talk to the QBs ahead of him who don’t get the overrated bump from the media). BTW: Hail Mary passes rely on luck. Even most NFL scrubs can heave the ball 50 yards and pray a receiver out jumps or gets a bounce to catch it. The fact that it took such a heave suggests it was not an effective drive anyway. Game-winning drives from the 25 to the end zone in 8-10 plays is a drive. 50-yard heaves are last-ditch. Karen Rodgers!

  91. Not clutch?

    Brady 3rd Q QB rating – 96.9
    Brady 4th Q QB rating – 94.5
    cumulative 2nd half rating – 95.8

    Brady trailing under 2:00 to go – 83.0
    Brady trailing under 4:00 to go – 89.1
    Brady in tied games, 2:00 to go – 76.2
    Brady in tied games, 4:00 to go – 80.3
    Brady close games (7 or less) – 90.1

    Rodgers 3rd Q QB rating – 101.6
    Rodgers 4th Q QB rating – 102.5
    cumulative 2nd half rating – 102.0

    Rodgers trailing under 2:00 to go – 74.9
    Rodgers trailing under 4:00 to go – 83.5
    Rodgers in tied games, 2:00 to go – 99.9
    Rodgers in tied games, 4:00 to go – 88.2
    Rodgers close games (7 or less) – 97.2

    I’m more than happy that Rodgers is my QB.

    Now, if we could only pair him with a defense like Belichicks that has historically made stops over the years. That’s the piece you seem to have left out here.

  92. aarons444 says:
    December 18, 2018 at 11:13 am
    Not clutch?
    ####

    Show the stats for the current season.

    Aaron is not the same player he used to be.

    Br Andy isn’t either, but he’s still performing at a higher level than what Aaron is.

  93. gtodriver says:
    December 18, 2018 at 7:13 am
    andrwken says:
    So you think Cousins gets extended in MN?
    ###
    Rodgers new contract was written based on what he did 5 years ago – not on what he can do today.
    ================================================================================================================================================
    Really? In 2016, he threw for 40 TD’s and 7 INT’s and had a rating of 104.

    In 2017, after 5 games, he had thrown for 13 TD’s/3 INT’s and once again had a rating over 100 until he was injured in the Vikings’ game. Keep in mind that gtodriver’s post has nothing to do with an analysis of Rodgers’ contract, value, or abilities. It’s a thinly veiled attempt to disparage the Packers front office and rip Rodgers, with the true intent just to rile up Green Bay fans, once again playing fast and loose with facts and presenting opinions as fact. Outside of this year, there is nothing sustained to suggest that Aaron Rodgers is in decline- only time will bear that out. And if he does well down the road, gtodriver will be the last admit it. He’ll say that his success was attributed to something else.

  94. frank booth says:

    Outside of this year, there is nothing sustained to suggest that Aaron Rodgers is in decline- only time will bear that out.
    ###

    You must have forgotten about his Carolina performance with 3 picks after being fully medically cleared.

    In 2016, he had 2 picks in the losses to the Giants and the Titans accompanied by the huge choke job in the playoff game against the Falcons.

    2015? He started out looking pretty good for the first 6 weeks – going 6 – 0. But he only led the Packers to 4 wins in the last 10 games. He only managed 1 TD at home in week 17 and choked away the NFC North title. This was after losing to the Cardinals by 30 points in week 16.

    Then in 2014 he had a good regular season. But the epic failure to take what was being given to him in the NFC Championship game is legendary. Seattle turned the ball over 4 times in the first half and all the Packer scored was 13 points. Of course Aaron had 2 INT’s of his own in the first have.

    But he had a 13 point lead at the half and never got the ball into the endzone the rest of the game. Probably had something to do with three 3 and outs and one 4 play drive in the second half.

    Then we get back to 2013 – he lost twice to Colin Kaepernick – making it 4 losses in a row to Kaepernick…

    That’s 5 years back – not a whole lot of glory from 2013 – 2017 – the years before he signed the new deal making him the highest paid player in NFL history.

  95. Yeah, you keep harping on the “medically cleared” thing, which is apropos of nothing. And then you pick out individual bad games to bolster your point without looking at the bigger picture. For instance, you won’t give someone credit for getting his team to the NFC Championship Game, but you will certainly fault him if he loses. A team that wins 10 games but goes 4-6 isn’t good enough- even if they get to the second round of the playoffs. However, you’ll turn around and trumpet how important the Vikings winning divisions and getting into the playoffs is. It’s all about “Player A didn’t do this or this”. Play your silly games with someone else.

  96. frank booth says:
    December 18, 2018 at 7:20 pm
    Yeah, you keep harping on the “medically cleared” thing…
    ###

    Maybe you need to listen to freefromcommonsense more often.

    He/she goes on at length about the miracles performed by the Packer medical staff and how they would never let anyone play that wasn’t perfectly capable of performing at a high level.

    Explain to me why the Bears so rarely go to the playoffs sometime. It would be an interesting read.

  97. @gtodriver In the Panthers game in 2017 he clearly wasn’t fully healed, all 3 of his INTs were underthrown.

    What loss to the Giants in 2016 are you talking about? The Packers beat NYG in the regular season and playoffs (25-40, 362 yds, 4 TD). Funny how you also ignore the divisional game against the Cowboys (28-43, 355 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT) when Rodgers threw a laser on 3rd & long and it was a toe tapping sideline catch to set up the winning FG.

    In 2015 he was 21-36, 210 yds, 2 INT in the WC against the Redskins then in the divisional (24-44, 261 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT) threw a Hail Mary TD falling backwards with a defender in his face. The Packers never had the ball in OT.

    In 2014 he won his 2nd MVP. The failure to score 2 TDs in the NFCCG was the result of McCarthy’s conservative play calling to kick 2 FGs from inside the 1.

    In the losses to Kaepernick he was 64-102, 767 yds, 6 TD 1 INT.

    Of course you will find a way to explain how the Packers’ soft defenses who can’t hold a lead he gives them in the first place is Aaron Rodgers fault.

  98. “Ummm, Brett Favre was coming in to replace Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels. Not Kirk Cousins or Case Keenum.”

    Ummm, same. lol

  99. Is freefromcommonsense someone with the Packers staff? Or are you speaking about one poster’s opinion and presenting it as indisputable fact?

    All of the medical staffs in the NFL are most likely very good. I doubt that any of these billion dollar organizations are entrusting the care of their assets anything less than optimal care. That doesn’t mean that they are always right, the player is always being truthful about his pain, or that the player’s confidence can’t be shaken after an injury or that it may take a game or two or three to get back into the swing of things plus any other variables. There are almost always question marks when a player comes back from injury or surgery. It’s not uncommon for players to come back and reinjure themselves after being “medically cleared” to play.

    Why do you think the Bears rarely go to the playoffs? Obviously, they haven’t been very good. Once again, you’re intent isn’t to gather information. It’s to be smug. But I’ll give you my opinion from what I know and have heard over the years.

    The Bears are a family business and one of the few teams in the league where the franchise is the primary source of income for the owner. Not that other organizations haven’t overcome that (The Rooneys and the Steelers come immediately to mind). Ted Phillips is President but he’s not a football guy; he’s an accountant who rose through the ranks to his position. He does exactly what the McCaskeys want. Too many voices. There’s a lot of meddling by the family historically, the leadership has been unsettled, and the football people (GM, etc) haven’t been able to run the team in the most effective manner. They haven’t been the greatest at finding and evaluating GM’s and coaching talent and have made some truly stupid hires. Poor drafting hasn’t helped. They have spent above the league average in free agency since at least 2011, but haven’t done it wisely. Recently, Trestman was awful and Fox was just collecting a paycheck. In spite of this, they’ve been able to have some periods of success and reach a couple of Super Bowls in 1985 and 2006. Supposedly, Pace and company are being given free reign to operate, or at least much more freedom than in the past. Pace wasn’t given that freedom immediately- Fox wasn’t truly his hire- Nagy was. Pace has put together 3 good drafts, and they seem to be moving in the right direction. Who knows whether than will be sustained or not. So much of it rides on Trubisky, but he’s still relatively inexperienced, only starting one year in college, and working with a new coach in a complex offense. Nagy has said that the full offense won’t be installed until next year. Trubisky still needs improvement in a lot of areas, but he’s flashed at times and has looked way better than last year overall. We’ll see what happens.

  100. In 2014 he won his 2nd MVP. The failure to score 2 TDs in the NFCCG was the result of McCarthy’s conservative play calling to kick 2 FGs from inside the 1.
    ======

    Rodgers gave them a 12-point lead with 3:58 to go.

    Name another team in NFL history that blew that kind of lead?

    He had to get a FG just to GET to OT… then never got the ball back.

    Worst collapse in NFL history.

  101. In the losses to Kaepernick he was 64-102, 767 yds, 6 TD 1 INT.
    ======

    444 yards.. for Kaepernick.. all by himself in 2012. 579 yards allowed that day. No QB can win in that scenario. Nobody.

    The loss to the 9ers in 2013 was another game Rodgers scored the final time he had the ball, and never got the ball back beacuse the D folded like a cheap deck chair.

  102. Rodgers gave them a 12-point lead with 3:58 to go.

    Name another team in NFL history that blew that kind of lead?

    He had to get a FG just to GET to OT… then never got the ball back.

    Worst collapse in NFL history.
    ————————————–
    Don’t forget the special teams allowed a successful onside kick to let SEA score 12 unanswered pts. But then again that’s probably Aaron Rodgers fault.

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