Antonio Brown’s deal is better than the Sammy Watkins or Odell Beckham contracts

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Last year, receiver Sammy Watkins got to the open market and signed a contract that, in many respects, was better than Odell Beckham’s eventual new deal. Now, Antonio Brown‘s revised deal is better than the contract signed last year by Watkins.

Watkins, who was unrestricted and could have gone anywhere, will make $48 million over three years, with $30 million fully guaranteed at signing. Brown, who was under contract for three more years and supposedly had no leverage at all, will make $50.125 million over the next three years, with $30.125 million fully guaranteed. That’s an average from signing of $16.7 million — higher than the value of any receiver deal when assessed as a full-value, moment-of-execution deal. (Beckham’s deal is worth $16.4 millon from signing, but he’s under contract for five more years.)

It’s unclear how much of the $50.125 million Brown actually will make. Watkins likely will be released after 2019, but he’ll still exit with $34 million over two years, an average of $17 million per year.

Brown, if he stays only two years, will earn at least $30.125 million — and he’ll have a shot at the open market at the age of 32 going on 33 (not to be confused with 32 going on 73). Issues like whether he’s likely to stay with the Raiders for all three years along the amount of money he’s expected to earn as a practical matter will become more clear when the final terms surface. For now, though, Brown has a deal that trumps all others under a new-money analysis, and that rises to the top of the stack when considering the value of the contract at signing.

Of course, that may not last very long. But, for now, Brown is the king of the receiver hill, again.

14 responses to “Antonio Brown’s deal is better than the Sammy Watkins or Odell Beckham contracts

  1. lol Sammy Watkins, him and Bradford have 2 players been paid as much for such little production. Just think if the Chiefs spent that money last year on defense.

  2. Anyone that would have signed Watkins to a contract like that after his stint in Buffalo doesn’t understand football or business. Again, .

    Brown is so far ahead of Watkins in terms of production that the comp is ridiculous Brown’s ego aside.

    Having said that, it’s also a ton of money to offer a character-issue WR that’s entering his back-9.

    What I don’t get is that Cooper and Brown both did about the same in their first four seasons, yet with Brown having had a much better QB. I don’t get the rationale behind wanting Cooper gone then spending even more for Brown, when Cooper’s just entering his prime with Brown exiting his.

    Gruden’s going to sink or swim with his Mack/Cooper (now Brown) moves. If Brown stirs up a whole lotta trouble, and what are the odds since he didn’t like playing with Roeth, a decent QB, with who-knows-whom at QB.

    I’m not sure that Gruden’s thought this thru. As well, to me if a coach is good he’ll get the max from the players that he has. This whole “not his guy” nonsense is just that, nonsense. If you can coach then you can get the most from a player. Now if scheme, i.e. 4-3 v. 3-4 etc. is a big issue, then it might make some sense, but most Ds these days play all kinds of alignments.

  3. Antonio Brown’s deal is better than the Sammy Watkins or Odell Beckham contracts

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    As it should be because Brown has been a top tier WR longer than any of the others and Watkins, well he SHOULDN’T even be in the discussion when talking about the highest paid WRs, that was KC’s screw up for paying him so much and it’s going to come back to bite them when Hill’s contract comes due next year, BANK IT!

    If I were Hill I wouldn’t even consider anything under $22mil/yr with what the Chiefs are paying Watkins.

  4. Martavious Bryant is better than his old college teammate, Sammy Watkins. Ironically, if he were “legal”, he might put up better stats than Brown.

  5. The Analytical Kid says:
    March 10, 2019 at 3:28 pm

    What I don’t get is that Cooper and Brown both did about the same in their first four seasons, yet with Brown having had a much better QB. I don’t get the rationale behind wanting Cooper gone then spending even more for Brown, when Cooper’s just entering his prime with Brown exiting his.

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    Go look at Cooper’s numbers before he was traded to Dallas, sinking like a rock through water so it isn’t hard to see why, the numbers explain everything!

    And you think Brown is exiting his prime? You’ve been drinking way to much of that “OVER 30” media Kool-aid, that stuff will rot your brain!!!

  6. I keep thinking Gruden doesn’t know what he is doing. He got a #1 for Cooper and gave up a #3 and #5 for AB. Sounds like he outsmarted a lot of GMs.

  7. Not a fan of Antonio Brown but he SHOULD have a better deal than Sammy Watkins if were going by past productivity. All mentioning Watkins contract does is reinforce the idea that Brown was underpaid which he wasnt. Watkins is grossly overpaid.

  8. On the one hand, I can see more players trying this (the Albert Haynesworth strategy).
    Sign a big contract, play 1-2 years, and then act up and demand a trade. Of just stop trying so they are cut. Then play on a high incentive deal and play hard.

    I’m not sure what the answer is. Don’t give out more than 3 year contracts?
    The problem with that is teams want to be able to plan. And they get a bit of a discount at the end. Without that they might not want to pay quite as much.
    But maybe a 3 year contract is the ideal solution. The player has something to play for because they can get another contract.

  9. Why did Gruden bail out this diva and reward his disruptive behavior with a new contract? so he thinks he’s also gonna be getting AB’s production while he was in his prime w/ the Steelers and if Carr or any other qb on the Raiders overthrows him or doesn’t help pad AB’s stats he’s gonna be all goodness and light? i actually thought the Steelers were gonna be stuck with Brown and a 3rd and 5th round pick is a good return to be rid of that malcontent

  10. Brown’s deal with the Raiders seems like it’s the best WR contract right now but what’s gonna happen if/when someone else is the top dog? the Falcon’s have said they’re gonna restructure Julio Jones’s contract making him the highest paid WR…have fun with that Gruden!

  11. bugbearcaptain says:
    March 10, 2019 at 5:37 pm

    Not a fan of Antonio Brown but he SHOULD have a better deal than Sammy Watkins if were going by past productivity. All mentioning Watkins contract does is reinforce the idea that Brown was underpaid which he wasnt. Watkins is grossly overpaid.

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    You may be correct but when a 63rd ranked receiver(for the ’17 season) gets paid top 3 money it makes all the other top receivers in the league stand up and take notice and like it or not it bumps all the top receivers value up quite a bit!

    So if people don’t like it then blame KC for overpaying a bottom of the barrel recevier(86th in ’18) and causing the price of all the top tier receivers to go up! It’s not Brown’s fault KC paid a 63rd ranked receiver in ’17(86th last season) so much money, but I bet now Brown is glad they did!

    So to teams I say this: go ahead and keep paying those mid and bottom tier players top ten money and see what it does to those top ten players contracts! After the Brown deal it should be sinking in a little bit. I really don’t think the Chiefs knew fully what they did but they’ll totally get it when they have to pay Hill next year, I see $20mil/yr or more and $50mil guaranteed considering its the same team that paid Watkins such outrageous money for production that is about 1/3 of Hill’s!!!

    There used to be a day when these players played for the love of the game, but that day has long passed, now it’s all about one thing and one thing only “SHOW ME THE MONEY”!

  12. I would love to see someone go back and check to see how many times a player actually got the full dollar value of a contract over its term. My guess is, not many. that $50M includes bonuses, incentives, and other “not likely to be earned” numbers. Why not report on the ACTUAL value?

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