PFT’s 2019 mock draft

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Once upon a time, we published multiple versions of a mock draft.

Postseason. Pre-Combine. Post-Combine. Pre-free agency. Post-free agency. Pre-Pro Day workouts. Post-Pro Day workouts. Pre-Easter. Post-Easter. Pre-Draft. Post-Draft (that one is usually features my highest accuracy rate).

We now do one, and only one. Sure, mock drafts rack up easy page views. But it’s all meaningless until the draft comes into focus. Even then, it’s still meaningless. But, you know, when in Rome.

This mock draft is the product of the efforts of multiple sources and contract who are in far better position than most to know what will happen. Even though no one really knows what will happen.

So take this for what it’s worth, call it the worst mock you’ve ever seen, point out that we’ve included no potential trades. Whatever. And then wait for Thursday night to see what happens in the actual draft, remembering only the rare occasions when we closed our eyes, threw a dart, and somehow hit the board.

1. Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma.

The NFL wants to keep Arizona’s plans a secret until the TV audience gathers for the draft. If Murray finds out that he’s not the first pick, however, the secret will be out. And Murray will know, since his agent also represents Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury.

The Murray pick makes sense despite the presence of Josh Rosen. Given the rookie wage scale, it’s much better to take a chance on a potentially great quarterback who fails than to pass on a guy who could be the NFL’s next big thing. And Murray could be just that.

2. 49ers: Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State.

A pivot to Quinnen Williams wouldn’t be a surprise. A trade down also could happen, especially if Murray slips through the cracks. For now, though, the smart play is the brother of a guy who quickly became one of the best pass rushers in pro football three years ago.

3. Jets: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston.

They want to trade down, which helps explain why the Raiders are nervous about a potential trade partner guessing correctly as to Oakland’s plans. There’s no reason to doubt the reporting that defensive coordinator Gregg Williams wants Oliver, even if the next guy of the board could be the better performer.

4. Raiders: Quinnen Williams, DL, Alabama.

With Patrick Mahomes in the division, a guy who can flush him out of the pocket prematurely will be critical to any effort to outscore Kansas City. (One defensive upgrade isn’t nearly enough for the Raiders to compete with the Chiefs, however.) The surprise move in this spot would be to take quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who’d be getting a lot more media hype but for the presence of Kyler Murray in the draft pool.

5. Buccaneers: Devin White, LB, LSU.

This is a no-brainer confluence of best available player and need, given that Kwon Alexander left via free agency. A trade down also is possible, if a team like Washington wants to cut the line before the Giants can take Dwayne Haskins (even though we don’t have the Giants taking Dwayne Haskins).

6. Giants: Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky.

With Olivier Vernon gone, the Giants need a pass rusher more than they need a quarterback. And need drives these decisions, even if guys like G.M. Dave Gettleman try to say it doesn’t.

7. Jaguars: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida.

Nick Foles thrived in Philly due in large part to an offensive line that bought him just enough time. Now that the Jaguars have bought Foles’ football rights, they need to ensure that he’ll be able to thrive.

8. Lions: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa.

Gronk is gone; long live Gronk. Hockenson could become sort-of the guy in Detroit that Rob Gronkowski was in New England — a year after the Lions tried to trade for Gronkowski.

9. Bills: Brian Burns, EDGE, FSU.

Here’s a move that could be followed by a trade of Jerry Hughes and his $6.35 million salary to a team that fails to get a pass rusher it covets in round one.

10. Broncos: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri.

The slow-moving Willie Wonka competition for control of the franchise could give John Elway plenty of cover as he tries to rebuild a team that has fallen apart in recent years. Joe Flacco may not like this one, but Elway may see one very important trait in Lock: A great quarterback who was bogged down by a bad college team.

11. Bengals: Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma.

This is higher than many would peg Ford. But the Bengals don’t like to play the trade-down game. They settle on a guy, and they take him. If Ford’s their guy, he goes here.

12. Packers: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama.

Given with Khalil Mack and other great defensive linemen in the division, Aaron Rodgers needs all the help he can get as he enters the twilight years of his NFL career.

13. Dolphins: Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson.

Although it’s not retired, Ferrell likely would need Jason Taylor’s blessing to wear preferred number 99. (Especially since Ferrell wears it not for Taylor but for Aldon Smith.) Ferrell could be as good as Smith, who at one point averaged nearly one sack per game, without the baggage. Or they could decide not to Tank for Tua and take Dwayne Haskins.

14. Falcons: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson.

If Wilkins is gone, they may opt for teammate Dexter Lawrence, as Peter King suggested in his mock draft.

15. Washington: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State.

The Alex Smith injury makes this a clear area of need. The question would become whether Haskins starts right away, or whether Case Keenum/Colt McCoy get the nod to start 2019. Either way, drafting Haskins would mean Smith likely won’t be back, ever.

16. Panthers: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State.

Cam Newton‘s career won’t last as long as it could or should without competent protection. Dillard is the kind of guy who could help Carolina achieve that goal.

17. Giants (from Browns): Daniel Jones, QB, Duke.

They’ll be taking a risk by not picking Jones at No. 6, inviting someone to trade up in front of No. 17 and nab Jones. If not, the Giants get a guy who reminds Gil Brandt of Peyton Manning to eventually replace Eli Manning.

18. Vikings: Kaleb McGary, OT, Washington.

He has said his life is “basically a country song,” which makes him a good fit for a franchise whose existence is also a tale of chronic despair and disappointment. The Vikings need bodies to protect Kirk Cousins, who lacks the mobility to escape a collapsed pocket.

19. Titans: Rashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan.

Shoulder concerns make him available at No. 19, and the Titans get a key piece to a defense that continues to be the quiet strength of the team.

20. Steelers: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa.

With JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington on the outside, a guy like Fant can draw attention to the middle of the field, opening things up for his teammates.

21. Seahawks: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State.

Frank Clark is gone, and the Seahawks (if they don’t trade down) may be willing to roll the dice on a guy with a heart condition that will scare some teams away. They also could, in theory, trade down and still get Sweat.

22. Ravens: A.J. Brown, WR, Mississippi.

With free agents not flocking to an offense that won’t be mimicking the Run ‘N’ Shoot, the Ravens need to reel in a wideout in round one. Brown would be a surprise choice over teammate D.K. Metcalf, but injury issues and production concerns may cause Metcalf to slide. Brown, who lacks the superhero physique, has nevertheless more been durable and productive in the same offense.

23. Texans: Greedy Williams, CB, LSU.

Offensive line is a clear area of need, but it will be hard to pass up a speedy corner — especially for a team that plays in a division that has Andrew Luck and Nick Foles, and in a conference that has Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Baker Mayfield, and Ben Roethlisberger.

24. Raiders (from Bears): Jaylon Ferguson, EDGE, Louisiana Tech.

The Khalil Mack trade has made pass rusher a clear area of need. Taking one at No. 24 and not No. 4 will reduce comparisons to the No. 5 overall pick from five years ago.

25. Eagles: Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State.

They know the value of a strong rotation along the defensive line. Simmons would have been near the top of the board but for a torn ACL suffered during predraft workouts. And the Eagles weren’t bashful about throwing a lifeline to cornerback Sidney Jones, who tore an Achilles at his Pro Day workout two years ago.

26. Colts: Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson.

Best player available and also an area of need. No-brainer for G.M. Chris Ballard.

27. Raiders (from Cowboys): Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama.

With Marshawn Lynch not returning, the Raiders need a running back. Jacobs is the best of this year’s bunch.

28. Chargers: Devin Bush, LB, Michigan.

Sneaky great defense gets greater, if Bush somehow slips through the cracks and is available at this spot.

29. Seahawks (from Chiefs): Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma.

To justify the investment in Russell Wilson, he needs to throw the ball. So they need someone to catch the ball, especially with Doug Baldwin banged up.

30. Packers (from Saints): Byron Murphy, CB, Washington.

The defense gets a building block as the Packers try to build back toward contention.

31. Rams: Garrett Bradbury, C, N.C. State.

John Sullivan is gone, and the interior offensive line becomes a position of specific concern — especially as the 49ers’ defensive line slides toward “dominant.” Bradbury helps to shore things up in front of Jared Goff.

32. Patriots: Erik McCoy, OG, Texas A&M.

A trade out of round one to a team that wants a quarterback is possible, as is the Patriots taking a quarterback themselves. McCoy would help keep the front of the pocket clean, so that Tom Brady can continue to step and slide away from outside pressure without having to worry about needing a walker.

86 responses to “PFT’s 2019 mock draft

  1. I hope Frisco picks DT Williams instead of Bosa. They can use a talented player next to Buckner. That tandem would be tough to block. Which one do you double team? If Buckner is too expensive to keep long term, then you get someone who may be just as good, if not better, anchoring the interior of the line for years to come (at least until his rookie contract expires).

  2. Why are the Falcons going to “tank for Tua” They just signed Matt Ryan to a long term deal

  3. Jonah Williams is a possibility at #12 for the Pack. I wouldn’t say a strong possibilty, but a possibility indeed.

    There is very little chance Byron Murphy is the pick at #30. I am not even talking about the fact that Gute feels “good” about his CB group, if Murphy was the BPA on the Pack’s board at that point he would take him. I just don’t see Murphy being high on Gute’s board.

    Short arms don’t bother me as much on a OL, but having short arms is not what I want in a CB. Murphy also lacks makeup speed. I would be absolutely shocked if Murphy ends up in Green Bay.

  4. No way Ravens take a WR in the first round. With what will clearly be a run oriented offense the Ravens should take an O lineman. Failing that they should try to replace some of the lost parts on defense – ILB, Edge. With a QB still learning to throw the ball, WR not an area of need right now.

  5. Why in the world would the Jets take Oliver with Quinnen Williams still on the board? I know the Jets have made some boneheaded draft picks the last few years, but that would absolutely take the cake

  6. Interesting that you went TE for the Steelers, especially since the one area of the team that screams help in the secondary. Some pretty good CBs available with this pick based on your mock. We’ll see.

  7. If the Bills take Burns at 9 Bills fans would riot that would be a horrible pick get a clue

  8. Ed Oliver will be an All-Pro. Maybe not rookie season, but within his first three years. I’m convinced.

  9. If Haskins is there at 13 and the Fins take a pass on him some Dolphins fans hair will catch fire. Imo it would be the right move but I think I’d take Wilkens not Ferrell.

  10. I think you nailed it with the Packers taking an “O” lineman with their first pick, but I think you picked the wrong one. I think it will be Florida’s Jawaan Taylor. He’s much bigger than Jonah Williams and has the nastiness that you need to play RT or Guard.
    I think they’ll want to pick a safety at #30, but I could also see them trade down and pick up another 2nd or third round pick.
    If I had my way, they’d get Montez Sweat at #12 and D.K. Metcalf at #30. But I’m not holding my breath.

  11. Doubt very much Bills would trade Jerry Hughes. Not only is he their best Dlineman, but he improved his play after being paid.

  12. 32. Patriots: Erik McCoy, OG, Texas A&M.

    Not to criticize but he wouldn’t start? If it was with next year in mind maybe?
    Their starting for the Oline 5 is in place already. That would be a real shock. RB, Oline and DB would be shockers to me. Literally every other position would be in play. TE, WR, QB, DL, DE, LB. They can go in a lot of directions but I’d be shocked if it were Oline.

  13. If Bush somehow makes it to 20, he’s not making it to 21 – – Steelers have shown a ton of interest in him. I think it’s going to be moot, as I don’t see him getting past 12 or so.

  14. Lord! if Devin Bush is avail at #20…please, STEELERS better pick him or Heinz Filed will get burn down…

  15. No way Steelers take a TE at number one when they desperately need defensive playmakers. You may think Colbert and Tomlin are inept, but they know where the shortcomings are.

  16. I just love the national media and how they do no actual research on anyone except maybe east coast teams. 0% chance the broncos draft a QB in the first round. Even if everyone else is gone, they would trade down or draft a CB for a Harris replacement. They think they have their guy in Flacco for the next 2-3 years. They are not interested in developing anyone right now at QB. I understand that everyone thinks they are in rebuild mode and they have to get a QB but they do not believe that and they think they can compete now with Flacco.

  17. “He has said his life is ‘basically a country song,’ which makes him a good fit for a franchise whose existence is also a tale of chronic despair and disappointment.” Even as a Vikings fan, I have to admit that’s hilarious. Well played.

  18. Kaleb McGary at 18 is a major reach… especially for a zone blocking scheme. Past that, the quotes of moving Reiff to G was mis-direction. MN needs interior help and taking an adequate T and moving him inside is no slam dunk… MN is drafting a G/C like Bradbury at 18.

  19. There should be plenty of big surprises in this draft. There are a small handful of top guys, then a whole bunch of solid guys. There will be huge variations from team to team on the way they rate the 5 thru 40 players. That’s why there should be lots of trades too as players remain on the board that some teams will have rated as top ten players. The teams picking early on day 2 of the draft should have a busy night on the phone as teams try to move up into those spots for players they feel have slipped way too far.

  20. DK Metcalf out of the 1st round, that’s interesting… If the Pats could get him and maybe find a way to get Irv Smith TE in the second, that would be fun.

  21. So the Steelers will pass on both of the best CBs (Williams & Murphy) AND a top-2 LB in this class, in favor of…a TE?? Lol.

    A.) Fant won’t be there
    B.) Bush likely will not be either
    C.) Steelers need help on DEFENSE, especially in the secondary

  22. Ravens should draft a quarterback. They don’t have a quarterback right now. Jackson isn’t a thrower and if he doesn’t work out, it will be a long season.

  23. Mike, thanks for entertaing us with your mock. But uh hem, cough, cough…. you are absolutely high thinking the Vikings are taking Kaleb McGary, OT, at 18 overall. Not a snowball’s chance in hell that happens. Dude is a 4th round selection.

  24. There is 0 chance Tampa passes on Josh Allen if he slips out of the top 4, the only truly reliable edge rusher they have has never played in a 3-4 or as an OLB. If Allen is there at 5 then he’s clearly the pick.

  25. I like all of these guys! They can be on my team anytime!

    Regards,
    Jon Gruden
    Former BSPN MNF color commentator

  26. Agreed it’s Williams or Oliver at #4.

    Watch for the Raiders to grab Dalton Risner at 27.

    Miller-Jackson-Hudson-Risner-Brown is one heck of an o-line.

    If Sweat is still hanging around at 24, I think the Raiders pounce

  27. Patriots will not take a guard in round 1, c’mon man. Mason and Thuney are bosses on a Super Bowl winning O-line. 3 Super Bowl starts each.

    Nobody knows what BB will do, but this is far less likely than all theories that I’ve heard.

  28. Your Patriots pick is ludicrous. They have 2 of the best OG’s in the league for next season. They have REAL needs at DT, DE, WR, TE, and S, and you geniuses have them picking an OG, especially with Tillery available. More likely the Pats either trade up in your scenario to get Dexter Lawrence or trade down and pick up a 2020 pick.

    They already have 5 top 100 picks in the 2020 draft now. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them stack additional picks in what looks like a very strong QB class in Tom Brady’s last year with the club.

  29. “32. Patriots: Erik McCoy, OG, Texas A&M.”

    Doubt very much Pats will go Oline in round one. Bill will either trade back or take a TE, WR or DL.

  30. Haskin will be the first QB off the board at pick 4 to Oakland.
    Bosa goes #1 while Murrays falls to 11 (Bengals).
    Giants get Devin White at 6.
    Jags get DK Metcalf at 7.
    Steelers get Josh Jacobs at 20.
    Patriots get Johnathan Abram at 32.

  31. Totally incorrect comment about the Bengals not trading down. Heck, they even did it last year in the first round. They do that quite a bit actually. It’s trading up that is a rarity.

  32. Steelers: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa.

    ******************************************************

    No thanks. If the Steelers pick Noah Fant at 1:20, that’ll be a downer, esp if Murphy, Marquise Brown, or even Williams are still available (none of whom are ideal, but would be better choices than Fant). I’d even rather them even reach for a guy like Darnell Savage.

    So, given all that, they’ll probably pick Fant.

  33. First, no way Seattle actually selects at both spots in the first round, unless they cannot line up a trading partner.

    Setting that aside, they do need WR help, but it would not be Marquise Brown. Love the background of this player, but the Seahawks are much more likely to target a big receiver, not a Tyler Lockett clone.

  34. “Steelers get Josh Jacobs at 20.”

    Why in the world would a team with a Pro-Bowl RB on his rookie contract and needs all over the middle of the defense draft a RB in the first round?

  35. The Bengals DO like to trade down and it makes a lot of sense at 11. I could see the Redskins, Dolphins or Giants wanting to jump up and grab their quarterback and the Bengals wanting to pick up another draft pick. The only way they pass on a trade is if they value one of the OT much higher than the others and I would see Dillard as their guy over Ford.

  36. Eagles won’t go Sidney Jones 2.0. They need players that can play. The window is now. It’s either O line or DT/pass rusher.

  37. I’m a bit of a mock draft rube and I have never seen Kaleb McGary go in the first round, and certainly not as high as 18. I think you just slipped that pick in so you could use your line about the Vikings being like a country music song. I respect that.

  38. No way do the Bills take Burns at 9. He’s a good player and can see them trading back up for him, but not at 9. Not while Wilkins, Jonah Williams, Metcalf, Fant, Dillard are on the board.

  39. jman967 says:
    April 24, 2019 at 3:07 pm

    “Steelers get Josh Jacobs at 20.”

    Why in the world would a team with a Pro-Bowl RB on his rookie contract and needs all over the middle of the defense draft a RB in the first round?

    ————————

    Steelers have had 6 RBs in for private visits (out of an allotted 30 visits), met with another at the combine and worked out another. They are actively looking for a RB in this draft. Conner couldn’t finish the year and only averaged 53 yards rushing over his last 5 games (contract up after next year).

  40. What would be funnier? The Giants drafting Josh Allen a year after passing on Josh Allen? Or a NY team drafting a Duke star, only it’s the wrong sport?

  41. Thanks for proving, yet again, how little you know about football. The Steelers aren’t passing on Devin Bush or secondarynhelp to draft a #2 TE whose college team isn’t that high on.

    And a WR to the Ravens? Are you daft? Who will throw it to him? Yeah. That’s a big no. Not happening.

  42. I’m betting that very little goes according to mock drafts in this draft. There’s going to be trades and surprise picks.

    I suppose you could say that about most drafts…..but this one is ripe for unconventional picks.

  43. You guys are sleeping on Oliver. Houston ram a run stopping oriented defense, compare the amount of snaps he took in run defense to the others in this draft and you’ll understand why his sack totals were low. He also played out of position, basically at NT lined up directly in front of the center and he was triple teamed on a consistent basis. If he’s moved to a 3-4 DE or OLB he’ll be great.

  44. “Steelers have had 6 RBs in for private visits (out of an allotted 30 visits), met with another at the combine and worked out another. They are actively looking for a RB in this draft. Conner couldn’t finish the year and only averaged 53 yards rushing over his last 5 games (contract up after next year).”

    Yes they are looking for a depth RB.
    Josh Jacobs in the first is not a depth RB. Look at the guys they brought in. Over the last 5 games Connor averaged over 4 YPA 4 out of 5 games and his stats were a measure of volume as they decided to split carries. They are not in need of a RB in the first round. Connor did finish the year just fine.

  45. jman967 says:
    April 24, 2019 at 4:38 pm

    Yes they are looking for a depth RB.
    Josh Jacobs in the first is not a depth RB. Look at the guys they brought in. Over the last 5 games Connor averaged over 4 YPA 4 out of 5 games and his stats were a measure of volume as they decided to split carries.

    ——————————————

    They brought in Damien Harris (private-Jacobs teammate), Miles Sanders (private), Justice Hill (combine). Those 3 backs are on most top 5 prospect lists with Harris and Sanders often showing up on lists as the 2nd or 3rd ranked RB coming out. That’s nearly half of the RBs they spoke with which shows they are considering more than just depth. Conner avg 2.7 YPC, 4.0 YPC and 4.0 YPC in 3 of his last 5 games. That’s hardly impressive. And Conner only split carries with Samuels in one of those games.

  46. No one in their right mind would give McGary a 1st round grade. at best he is a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

  47. 12. Packers: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama.

    Given with Khalil Mack and other great defensive linemen in the division, Aaron Rodgers needs all the help he can get as he enters the twilight years of his NFL career.
    —–
    So a QB in his twilight years would benefit from having a rookie at what is considered the most important position on the OL facing off against division rivals who are stacked at D?

    Yea nice thinking there chief

  48. 12. Packers drafting an OL makes a lot of sense. Williams would be a decent pick. He probably starts as soon as Brian Bulaga gets his next injury (most likely before Halloween).

    30. Packers drafting a CB makes no sense with literally every other position on defense being a bigger need. They’ve got Alexander, King, and Jackson, plus some depth. All three may not turn out, but they still need pass rushers, inside LBs, and most importantly a starting free safety more than another CB.

  49. pl30 says:
    April 24, 2019 at 2:01 pm
    Devin Bush at 28? He’s not making it past 12.
    —————————–
    Agreed. Don’t know about 12 but he certainly won’t get past the Ravens. DeCosta will think he died and went to heaven if Bush is still on the board at 22.

  50. Packers won’t draft those POSITIONS at that spot, much less those players.

    GB has always done well with later round OL selections and CB is a position of strength.

    Expect DL and LB in round 1.

  51. “”Given the rookie wage scale, it’s much better to take a chance on a potentially great quarterback who fails than to pass on a guy who could be the NFL’s next big thing””

    Isn’t this Rosen as well?

  52. No way Devin Bush gets past the Eagles if he’s there. They need LB help more than a rotational piece on the DL.

  53. So you think the Bills go defense at #9 AND trade Jerry Hughes? Wrong on both accounts. Offense is our weakness and that’s where we go here, OT, OL or maybe reach for TE.

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