Ignore predictions regarding a potential Tyreek Hill suspension

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Two days ago at this time, Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill was meeting for the first time with the NFL regarding multiple potential violations of the Personal Conduct Policy. Now, multiple reports and/or predictions are indicating that Hill will be suspended four games, at most.

That’s a risky proposition. Unless a reporter’s source is Commissioner Roger Goodell, any comments from any reporter regarding a potential suspension of Tyreek Hill amount to guesswork and speculation.

Ultimately, the Commissioner is going to do what he wants to do, and only he knows what he wants to do. Assuming he currently knows what he wants to do. It’s possible he hasn’t reached a decision yet.

When he does (if he already hasn’t), Goodell ideally will consider the evidence and the language of the Personal Conduct Policy, along with the precedent created by past investigations and suspensions. History tells us that he’s more likely to consider potential P.R. reactions to the decision, along with possible political complications that could arise, if the punishment exceeds that which Chiefs owner Clark Hunt believes would be fair and appropriate (a second Papa John offensive nevertheless remains unlikely).

The more accurate prediction (although mine should be ignored, too) is that the suspension will cover a minimum, not a maximum, of four games. Last year, Goodell suspended Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith four gams for making threats and engaging in emotional abuse of the mother of his child, without any type of violence. It’s publicly known that Hill made threats against Crystal Espinal (“you need to be terrified of me too, bitch”); the NFL’s investigation possibly has uncovered (or will uncover) other abusive behavior that did not involve violence.

The NFL’s investigation also explored whether Hill disciplined his son in a way that crossed the line into abuse, along with a broader look at the circumstances that resulted in the state removing the child from the custody of Hill and Espinal. Those factors could give rise to a separate violation of the Personal Conduct Policy.

Without having access to the full body of evidence, including the critical question of whether Lisa Friel and Jennifer Gaffney regarded Hill as a credible witness during eight hours of questioning on Wednesday, it’s impossible to know how this will unfold. That said, Goodell learned the hard way in the Ray Rice case that it’s much better to oversuspend than undersuspend.

Hill’s history — he admitted to choking and beating a then-pregnant Espinal in 2014 — makes him unsympathetic. Which could make Goodell more inclined to impose a longer suspension (with minimal risk of blowback, given Hill’s history) than a short one (with heightened risk of blowback, given Hill’s history).

However it plays out, Goodell is going to do whatever Goodell wants to do. And anyone who thinks they know what Goodell is going to do doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Unless they’re talking directly to Goodell.

78 responses to “Ignore predictions regarding a potential Tyreek Hill suspension

  1. The nfl isn’t gonna throw away a chance at increasing their market share
    by suspending “the future face of the nfl’s” best weapon.

  2. 4 games. Well if he’s “taking the pulse” of that P.R. move from these comment sections allow me to say –

    4 games for deflation
    4 games for assault and battery including a pregnant lady and a 3 year old child

    Regardless of wether or not either did/didn’t happen, to have the two equal to each other is criminal in and of itself.

  3. When Hill said “you need to be terrified of me too, b..” that was damning. It was in response to Crystal telling him that their son said Daddy broke his arm and he was terrified of him. So that “too” in my opinion was both an admission Hill did it and a threat to do the same to her.

  4. Yeah well even if Goodell told you what he’s gonna do you still wouldn’t know until he actually does it.

  5. Ped suspensions get 4 games. This dude has a pattern of domestic violence and I fear it won’t stop. Hardy and rice were rightly black balled and rice seems to be the only one who was contrite. This guy shouldn’t even be in the league anymore.

  6. This can go one of 2 ways. We know that KC isn’t one of Goodell’s favored few. He nailed them 2 draft picks and heavy fines for an extremely minor “tampering” offense. Calling the player directly instead of his agent. Because they aren’t one of Roger’s dandies, Hill could get a lengthy suspension. One the other hand, KC is New England’s biggest challenge to winning #7. Goodell loves to find any way possible cheat and derail NE. Hill could get off scot-free for just this reason…

  7. It’s so rare that the world sees concrete evidence of a man being an absolutely disgraceful, abusive menace to his wife and child. Usually these things only exist behind closed doors, and turn into a he said/she said scenario. The recording of the phone call between him and his wife makes this issue totally black and white.

    He’s toxic. Put him on the exempt list and ban him from the league.

  8. Goodell doesn’t act alone. He works very closely with the owners which is why his decisions don’t always seem consistent. He takes all the hate of the from the fans and all the owners get to keep themselves clean. They have been playing the NFL fans with this for a decade. Owners make the decision and he is their scapegoat.

  9. I had a boss once teach me, “If you can’t do it right all the time at least be consistent.”

  10. The speculation of 4 games comes from within the Chiefs organization. I recall the Cowboys organization including Jerruh being very certain that Zeke was going to walk. Both cases had the same investigator, and in the Zeke case, she suggested no suspension. Goodell then came in with the steel chair and belted Zeke with 6 games. Brace yourselves Chiefs fans.

  11. Didn’t Kareem Hunt just get 8 games for pushing down a woman and kicking her? With Hill’s history and the seriousness of what’s going on here, that should be the minimum.

  12. This piece of human filth should never have been allowed to see an NFL field after what he did in college. Here is their chance to make a statement against this kind of behavior. Sadly, they probably won’t though….

  13. I predict Hill will get no suspension. Just think of all the previous Roger specials, and do the opposite.

  14. I am so tired of Goddell. Why can’t this guy actually make a decision on his own? In stead he leaks guesses at suspensions so he can gauge reactions. He is a disgrace to the shield.

  15. Goodell will leak 4 games. Gauge public opinion. Suspend 1 game more than public consensus. Sounds like step 1 has been complete. This ain’t rocket science.

  16. Why are most suspensions doled out in even numbers? Or even whole games?
    Maybe it’s time to adopt the half game suspension the NCAA uses.
    In that spirit, I suggest a 5 and a half game suspension. Let him start his season after halftime in week 6.
    Plus, think of the gambling money on the over/under. Could actually make stories about him have some sort of positive spin.

  17. Not true. Goodell doesn’t care about Hill or domestic violence, he cares only about manipulating public perception. Predictions could indeed be Goodell’s attempts to gage public response or spin doctor public opinion.

  18. Regardless of what the actual punishment turns out to be, I hope the arbitrary and capricious nature of all of Goodell’s punishments and the wild inconsistency they create, are sufficient grounds for the NFLPA to force him out of office as part of the next CBA negotiation.

  19. Whatever happens with a suspension, he should be required to take some serious anger management – whatever you want to call it. With some type of 24/7 monitoring for at least a year, probably random but frequent CPS visits as well. And a serious monetary fine, with guaranteed expulsion from the league and jail time if it ever happens again.
    Tempting to just say give him the boot now. But by keeping him in the system you can provide at least some protection for the woman and child.

  20. That doesn’t seem right? Brady got 4 games for silliness. Hill seems to be much more serious. And it’s Hills second assault.

    I think we can accurately predict that Goodell will get it wrong.

  21. A short suspension works well for the Chiefs because in addition to being able to keep the player they will be able to sign him to a cheap extension because his market value has been greatly reduced. Before these incidents his market value under a new deal was estimated around 20 million per year.

  22. Or was the threat about him revealing things about her? We don’t know.
    ===
    When Hill said “you need to be terrified of me too, b..” that was damning. It was in response to Crystal telling him that their son said Daddy broke his arm and he was terrified of him. So that “too” in my opinion was both an admission Hill did it and a threat to do the same to her.

  23. The only reason Hill will get a suspension is because this story came out on night 1 of the draft and was a distraction. Since then it’s been solidly proven that Hill is guilty of nothing in this situation other then getting pissed off on a call because his bad choice of a woman was trying to set him up. Kid needs some anger management and needs to separate himself from the person who was actually being investigated in this case but there’s nothing suspendable here. But because he distracted Goodells draft they’ll give him 4 games and when the NFLPA appeals it, as they should, it will be brought back to 1 or 2.

  24. stexan says:
    June 28, 2019 at 11:36 am

    Whatever happens with a suspension, he should be required to take some serious anger management – whatever you want to call it. With some type of 24/7 monitoring for at least a year, probably random but frequent CPS visits as well. And a serious monetary fine, with guaranteed expulsion from the league and jail time if it ever happens again.
    ___________

    I don’t think the NFL can guarantee jail time.

  25. Lets not forgoet that Adrian Peterson was suspended for basicly an entire year for hitting his kid with a switch. Hill breaks his kids arm and were talking 4 games? Yeah whatever…

  26. So those calling for prison and accusing hill of breaking arm take that up with investigators not Tyreek or Chief fans,he was cleared in the justice system of the law. So please quit whining,it’s getting old.!

  27. On the 4 games for deflate remember goodell was dealing with chronic cheaters who have no regard for the shield

  28. On the 4 games for deflate remember goodell was dealing with chronic cheaters who have no regard for the shield.
    —————————————————-
    Tyreek Hill has a chronic history of violence, not to mention the fact that the actual actions of the Patriots pale in comparison to most of the rest of the league. The only thing egregious about the Patriots’ scandals were the disproportionate punishment they received for minor and/or non-existent infractions.

  29. Criminal law aside, employer policy being relevant, for me it depends on what they were investigating. Listen I think the guy needs to be booted. Period. But if the NFL was only investigating recorded threats, is that 4 games? 6? What I need is that as the investigate proceeds it’s added on, not concurrently but cumulative, to the point where functionally he is out of the league. If he isn’t banned now, then do the right thing for EACH crime/violation of the policy.

  30. Yourmoderationisawaitingmycomment says:
    June 28, 2019 at 11:32 am
    Why are most suspensions doled out in even numbers? Or even whole games?
    Maybe it’s time to adopt the half game suspension the NCAA uses.
    In that spirit, I suggest a 5 and a half game suspension. Let him start his season after halftime in week 6.
    Plus, think of the gambling money on the over/under. Could actually make stories about him have some sort of positive spin.

    —-

    I was going to comment on that. An odd # would have a lot of people saying “What?” I don’t think I’ve ever heard of an odd # suspension. I was thinking 7 games.

    I’m starting to get an idea in my head of having the league determine what games you should be suspended. Your actions messed up the flow of your team. By having some one playing this game but not that game and the one after that but playing after that, etc….. the team carries a higher burden for the players action. No Brady or Edelman sitting out the start of a season then coming in fresh.

  31. Seems like the Tyreek Hill matter has become a hot potato between the league office and KC Chiefs organization. Each is hoping the other will do something to put the situation behind them.

  32. Why was Lisa Friel even there???? It was painfully clear that ole Rog pays no attention to her conclusions……smh

  33. The ONLY actual evidence is he said harsh things to his wife.

    As for the kid, child services, the police and DA have ruled it an accident – no charges filed – just an investigation.

    It also seems unclear if she was the one who placed the child in an unsafe situation and we know he was the one who called 911 while it seems she did not want to? that part is unclear.

    So, basically, the ONLY actual evidence is he was recorded saying harsh things.

  34. The ONLY actual evidence is he said harsh things to his wife.
    ———————
    While you called this ‘harsh things’ some would call it a threat.

  35. Hill plays in the AFC, so the “Rabid Giants Fan”, Lisa Friel, doesn’t have to help her team on this one. Hill probably won’t even get a suspension.

  36. Its not the only evidence:

    1 – he admitted to attacking this child when it was in the womb
    2 – This child got a broken arm

    In the court of the NFL it is proven that Hill did it unless he can prove he did not.
    Innocent until proven guilty is not in the CBA.

    I think this is the 1 time that we are all OK with this application.

  37. The guy shouldn’t get suspended at all because he hasn’t been convicted of anything, isn’t currently being investigated by local authorities, and really hasn’t done anything illegal. At this point, the only things he’s guilty of is being a moron and being a really scummy individual. If being a moron becomes illegal then a majority of the snowflakes posting on this story should be very worried that the local authorities will be kicking in their front door and hauling them away to the local lockup. The guy is getting paid to play NFL football not getting paid to be a nice guy. Also, nobody should be punished for something that they didn’t do or just because someone said you did something illegal with zero evidence to prove that you did do it.

  38. brendafortheboyz says:
    Why was Lisa Friel even there???? It was painfully clear that ole Rog pays no attention to her conclusions……smh
    xxxxxxxxxxxx
    It was Kia Roberts that led the investigation, and recommended no suspension. Friel didn’t interview at all, but came in (rabid Giants fan) with Mara to get Goodell to suspend.

  39. There seems to be a common argument that Tyreek Hill was acquitted because he didn’t break his son’s arm. That is not true. He was never charged because there was not evidence to prove which parent abused the child. The abuse had nothing to do with the broken arm, but did have to do with bruises and welts from being struck with force from a hand or object.
    In the audio Cristal Espinal admits to “whooping him” and Tyreek Hill does not deny it when she states that he also hits the child with a belt or “makes him put his arms out and punches him in the chest”.
    Hitting anybody with a belt or a fist is the definition of “being struck with force from a hand or object”. This proves that abuse happened. What can’t be proved is which parent did the abuse that the DA references from child services report. This is why neither parent was charged.
    Based on what the Johnson County DA has stated, Either Tyreek Hill or Cristal Espinal abused the child, but he cannot prove which parent it was. This implies that neither parent is confessing while also not helping to provide evidence on the other parent.
    Based on this implied statement, Tyreek hill either A) Punched his son and hit him with a belt or B) Tyreek Hill knows that his girlfriend/fiance hit his son hard enough to leave bruises and hit him with a belt and Tyreek Hill is refusing to testify he knows.
    Either scenario (or a combination of the 2) is enough for the NFL to suspend Hill for a very long time because of him either endangering, or allowing endangerment of his son.
    Add to that the verbal threat, and yes it was a threat, to Cristal Espinal and his history of violence with her, Roger Goodell can justifiably suspend Hill for a very long time.
    The fans that defend Hill,because “he didn’t break the kid’s arm” or “he wasn’t charged with anything” allow the Chiefs (and other teams) to draft and pay people who have abused other human beings with a clear conscience. When that backfires and you get a Javon Belcher situation, they are not held accountable.
    I recently read an article about the history of DV within the Hunt family and the Chiefs organization. Twice the organization has had employees that killed their significant other and then themselves. The Hunt family has a history of documented DV. To the Hunt family they may be so used to this happening they just roll along as though it’s a common occurrence. Somebody needs to step up and stop this. Make an example of Tyreek Hill and make it so every other player in the league thinks twice before raising his hand in anger, to ANY individual.

  40. jbelkin says:
    June 28, 2019 at 1:39 pm
    As for the kid, child services, the police and DA have ruled it an accident…
    ———————————————-

    That statement is simply untrue and has to be called out. They most decidedly did NOT rule it an accident. Johnson County District attorney Steve Howe’s said very much the opposite:

    “We believe that a crime has occurred. However, the evidence in this case does not conclusively establish who committed the crime against this child. Criminal cases must be proven beyond a reasonable doubt by admissible evidence, not speculation, rumor or hearsay.”

  41. @commentawaitingdeletion “—That statement is simply untrue…”

    You’re incorrect. I live in K.C. The authorities have determined from the beginning thT the broken arm was an accident and was not a catlyst for further investigation.”

    There were marks on the tush of the kid that Espinal has admitted to via text.

  42. This should be an easy decision for Goodell. Suspend Hill for the 2019 season. Make the NFLPA look like the bad guys for trying to get a domestic abuser back on the field. A long suspension would give Goodell and the owners a much needed PR win in the wake of 2021 lockout rumors.

  43. Why wasn’t tyreek at home? Something to do with the protective order that did not allow him to see his SON. But yeah, other than that he’s innocent. Really. How many judges grant an order without some form of evidence? He was allowed to see her but not HIM.

  44. Its sad how people cant even agree on the protection of a child that is being abused. people defending this guy who beats a 3 year old with a belt hard enough to leave welts and bruises. If anybody has lived with a 3 year old they would know how wrong that is.

  45. If the police cleared him, he is good to go as one of my keepers in FF.
    Getting government social workers involved in anything is terrible, especially when adopting

  46. Yeah, I’m sure this guy is going to incriminate himself after getting away with whatever he or his girlfriend or both did. If he lied to he law, I doubt he’s going to spill his guts to the NFL. The best thing is that his son has been removed from the situation. Unsavory as it is, banning this guy means his kid doesn’t receive financial care. Anyone believe that Hill would find something gainful outside of football after this? Nah. I don’t like it, but no one wants to punish the victim as well. Finish his contract out, make sure that kid is taken care of and move on.

  47. Slow clap….good job Florio. This is the first article on the subject I have seen that really correctly states what the issue is from an NFL perspective and how they are going to look at it.

  48. davidsoria175yahoocom says:
    June 28, 2019 at 12:15 pm
    So those calling for prison and accusing hill of breaking arm take that up with investigators not Tyreek or Chief fans, he was cleared in the justice system of the law. So please quit whining,it’s getting old.!

    —————————-
    Except he wasn’t cleared. They just don’t know which of the two of them committed the crimes (not the broken arm, all the other stuff) exactly and they do need that to be established before they can start charging anyone. That at least one of them has been committing physical abuse on the child is not in question.

    But also reread the article. Florio is correct to say that this is not the real factor that Goodell will be weighing.

  49. 4 games for deflation
    ——————————
    And for lying and for failure to cooperate with league investigators.

  50. Dorsey sure loves the low class guys. Enjoy your team of felons and woman beaters Sleezeland.

  51. Get rid of him.

    It is a privilege to be in the NFL. He has thrown it away. It is not like this is his first strike.

    He can go try and earn a living doing something else. Heck he can go run track for a living. Could work for him. At least he won’t have a team to let down.

  52. If it isn’t at least a year, Goodell needs to be fired immediately. Mandate him to seek help and keep him in the same unlimited doghouse you put folks who smoke pot and only let him back in when a trained mental health professional clears him. I don’t wish for injuries, but if he gets a slap on the wrist, I hope the first defender to tackle him ruins his knee. He deserves that kind of karma for hurting his kid.

  53. scorpion42 says:
    June 28, 2019 at 6:47 pm
    If the police cleared him, he is good to go as one of my keepers in FF.
    Getting government social workers involved in anything is terrible, especially when adopting

    ———————-
    The police DID NOT clear him. They just could not establish exactly which person has been committing the abuse. (That there was abuse us nit in question, even though the broken arm was not part if it)

    IF HE PLAYS then he is very much a big time keeper in your FF, but that is a distinct and separate topic that has no bearing on the other. (Or shouldn’t. But I do see a lot of FF owners, Chiefs homers, and Chiefs haters that are blurring the two way too much)

  54. wreckdeutschland says:
    June 28, 2019 at 7:49 pm
    4 games for deflation
    ——————————
    And for lying and for failure to cooperate with league investigators.

    ————————
    Name one lie Brady told. Even one.

    Even the lack of cooperation claim is highly debatable. IMHO, and after reading the transcript of exactly how the exchange went over the cell phone, that entire lack of cooperation thing was nonsense by Goodell trying to spin up a way to justify a preordained conclusion. Anyone that says otherwise I would challenge to establish that using information from the actual transcript. (And not from secondhand accounts or comments from folks that are avoiding reading it because they are concerned it will say something that goes against what they want to think)

  55. The NFL needs to start taking draft picks from these teams. If you choose to bring in a player with a history of this behavior, if they re-offend the team should lose picks. This is already in the CBA by the way, the league needs to enforce it. Teams need to face consequences for drafting turds.

  56. I hope he gets suspended, its obvious he beat up his girlfriend and young son. Why should he play football again in the near future? Sit him down, maybe he will wake up, but I doubt it. He is a looser.

  57. Pola pe’a says:
    June 29, 2019 at 9:43 am
    The NFL needs to start taking draft picks from these teams. If you choose to bring in a player with a history of this behavior, if they re-offend the team should lose picks. This is already in the CBA by the way, the league needs to enforce it. Teams need to face consequences for drafting turds.

    ————————-
    The thing is, if the NFL is allowing a player to enter the draft then there should not be any penalty on a team for drafting that player.

  58. Even the lack of cooperation claim is highly debatable. IMHO, and after reading the transcript of exactly how the exchange went over the cell phone, that entire lack of cooperation thing was nonsense by Goodell trying to spin

    ———

    Exactly. I don’t think most people understand that the wells report was edited by the NFL three times before it was released.

  59. 1) Like Goodell has been anything even remotely close to predictable when it comes to player discipline.
    2) When the heck did the full body of evidence ever matter with Goodell and player discipline?

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