Tom Brady and Drew Brees each have 522 career touchdown passes, putting them both 17 behind Peyton Manning’s NFL record of 539. Seeing which one of them would break Manning’s record first should have been one of the best storylines of this NFL season.
But with Brees now injured and out about six weeks, it appears that Brady will break the record well before Brees.
So far this season Brady has five touchdown passes, and if he keeps averaging two or three a game he’ll break Manning’s record around the midway point of the season, just when Brees should return from his hand injury.
Assuming he stays healthy, Brady is a near lock to break Manning’s record this season. Brees still has a chance to pass Manning late in the year, but he’s likely to fall far enough behind Brady that he’ll have to keep playing after Brady retires in order to have the career touchdown record.