Patriots become Vegas favorites to win the Super Bowl

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Three weeks of dominance, even against easily-dominated teams, gets the attention of the folks in Las Vegas.

After trouncing the Steelers, Dolphins, and Jets — franchise that are a combined 0-9 on the year — the Patriots have seen their odds to win the Super Bowl drop to 7-2, via the Westgate Superbook. The Patriots are 6-5 favorites to win the AFC Championship.

The Chiefs have the next lowest odds to win the Super Bowl, at 4-1. The Chiefs are 3-2 to get to Miami in February.

After New England and Kansas City, the odds for the AFC teams spike. The Ravens are 30-1 to win it all, and 15-1 to get to the Super Bowl. The Texans are 20-1 and 10-1. The Chargers are 30-1 and 15-1. The Colts are 60-1 and 30-1. The Browns, who opened in January at 30-1 and 10-1, are now 60-1 and 30-1.

In the NFC, the Rams and Cowboys are 8-1 to win it all, and 4-1 to win the NFC title. The Packers are 10-1 and 5-1. The Saints and Vikings are 16-1 and 8-1. The Bears and, amazingly, the 49ers are 20-1 and 10-1. The Eagles are 25-1 and 12-1. The Seahawks are 30-1 and 15-1.

Usually for futures bets like these a long shot or two will stand out. The Lions or the Bills at 50-1 to win it all, for example. The Titans, the Bucs, or the Giants at 200-1.

But not on this one. The cream has quickly separated from the crap in the NFL’s 100th season. It’s most likely going to be the Patriots, Chiefs, Cowboys, or Rams, when the dust settles. It will be a major upset if it’s a team like the Packers, Texans, Vikings, Saints, etc.

It’s almost inconceivable that a long shot will pull it off. Which means that I’ve just walked right into an immediate future that sees a long shot rising and eventually winning it all.

86 responses to “Patriots become Vegas favorites to win the Super Bowl

  1. When most of the money is split between the favorites, bet the long shot. Of the 5-1 teams, I would think GB and NO would be the best bets based on the QBs (Brees returns) of their teams. While 5-1 isn’t a ‘long shot’ it’s a waste to put money on say TB or Denver. Disclaimer: I am not a fan of either GB or NO.

  2. Cool down. It’s three games into the season. No one thought that the Giants would squeak into the playoffs let alone go on a hot streak let alone upset the undefeated Patriots in 2007. We don’t know anything about how the season will unfold until it happens, along with the great equalizer, injuries.

  3. Patriots defense is for real. But their offense will be exposed once they face a real team.

    The offense needs a few more weeks to gel. They’ll get there but injuries aren’t helping them.

  4. The Pats are favorites, as they should be. The Bills are 3-0 but stuggled to beat the Jets while tha Pats allowed less than 105 total yards. BB has perfected his roster building to a science. With a top 10 offense and what should be a top 5 defense they only thing that can stop them is injuries.

  5. The haters are not going to like this and here comes the snide remarks; they cheat, their division is easy, the refs favor them, their just better than the team I like…I threw in the last one to make sure hater was paying attention

  6. It’s most likely going to be the Patriots, Chiefs, Cowboys, or Rams, when the dust settles

    ——————

    Its only week 4

  7. Pats allowed 17 points thru wk 3 (6th lowest in the SB era), but Pats D allowed just one FG and no TDs, which Pats radio says no D’s ever done before (not even the ’85 bears, who thru wk 3 had allowed a whopping 59 points). Oh and the Pats have scored 106 points. That is all.

  8. itsnotcheese2934 says:
    September 25, 2019 at 7:20 am
    Patriots defense is for real. But their offense will be exposed once they face a real team.

    The offense needs a few more weeks to gel. They’ll get there but injuries aren’t helping them.

    0 0 Rate This

    —————-

    You could say the same thing every year. Brady is one particular pain in the butt early on.

  9. jimmylikesthat says:
    September 25, 2019 at 7:29 am
    The haters are not going to like this and here comes the snide remarks; they cheat, their division is easy, the refs favor them, their just better than the team I like…I threw in the last one to make sure hater was paying attention

    4 0 Rate This

    ————————

    The best was yesterday when someone said NE should be forced to pay Brown even though he violated the terms in his deal, because they ruined the competitive balance with their greatness.

  10. Rankings of the offenses the Patriots played so far this year:

    Steelers #30
    Dolphins #31
    Jets #32

    When you play horrible offenses like that, of course your defense is going to look good. Let the season roll and the Patriots D will be exposed. Also helps the officials are on the Kraft payroll.

  11. 49ers, Packers.

    Forgotten teams, not that long ago considered big threats, particularly once Jimmy G joined SF.

  12. I doubt I’m the only one but Patriots have made the Super Bowl unwatchable. I think last Super Bowl I watched was Denver vs Seattle, what was that like 10 years ago?

  13. Part of the reason those teams rank so low is because they played the Patriots. SMDH.

    On another note, unless they fix the run game, those odds will change over the next few weeks.

    ==========================

    rogergoodellmyhero says:
    September 25, 2019 at 8:03 am
    Rankings of the offenses the Patriots played so far this year:

    Steelers #30
    Dolphins #31
    Jets #32

    When you play horrible offenses like that, of course your defense is going to look good. Let the season roll and the Patriots D will be exposed. Also helps the officials are on the Kraft payroll.

  14. That’s wonderful that Vegas set the odds, it is however their job.

    In real life there are 13 games left and ANYTHING can happen. So for me it is just a oh well moment.

  15. @ksiner

    The Pats Super Bowls, with BB and Brady, have mostly been exciting, tight, competitive games, which you find unwatchable?

    But you found the Broncos vs Seahawks mismatch travesty watchable?

    That is just weird.

  16. ksiner says:
    September 25, 2019 at 8:10 am
    I doubt I’m the only one but Patriots have made the Super Bowl unwatchable. I think last Super Bowl I watched was Denver vs Seattle, what was that like 10 years ago?

    3 3 Rate This

    ———————-

    Wait, you missed SB 49 and 51 two of the greatest if not the top 2 greatest SBs ever?

    LOL!

  17. “Rankings of the offenses the Patriots played so far this year:

    Steelers #30
    Dolphins #31
    Jets #32

    When you play horrible offenses like that, of course your defense is going to look good. Let the season roll and the Patriots D will be exposed.

    <>

    Also helps the officials are on the Kraft payroll.”

  18. rogergoodellmyhero says:
    September 25, 2019 at 8:03 am

    Rankings of the offenses the Patriots played so far this year:

    Steelers #30
    Dolphins #31
    Jets #32

    When you play horrible offenses like that, of course your defense is going to look good. Let the season roll and the Patriots D will be exposed. Also helps the officials are on the Kraft payroll.

    Somewhat true, which is why most Patriots fans are not counting chickens. However this defense really is different, and it started late last year. The last really dominant defense under BB was 2006, and by 2010 it had become bend don’t break, allow the offense to outscore other teams.

    The 2016 defense, for example, would have still had them at 3-0 against the same three opponents, but these opponents would have put up a lot of yards and scored more points; we’ve seen guys like Tannehill & Fitxpatrick rack up 300+ yards & 3 TDs countless times over the last decade.

    The reasons for the change are twofold. One, they finally have personnel approaching what they had from 2001-2006 at all three levels of defense. Two, you cannot play bend don’t break vs the Chiefs because when they get into the red zone, holding them to FGs is very difficult because of Mahomes’ arm, legs & brain. This defense is designed to be aggressive and “hold” the Chiefs under 30.

  19. Patriots fatigue is real, but this is hardly surprising.

    The league is lopsided this year. It kind of feels like the Pats & Chiefs, and everyone else. And who takes Reid over BB in a big game? Nothing against Reid, who is an outstanding coach, but it’s not even a fair fight anymore. BB & Brady’s big game experience & success is immense…no one else comes close. The Super Bowl is routine for them now.

    Long way to go, but it feels like they’re gonna roll this year…

  20. rogergoodellmyhero says:
    September 25, 2019 at 8:03 am
    Rankings of the offenses the Patriots played so far this year:

    Steelers #30
    Dolphins #31
    Jets #32

    When you play horrible offenses like that, of course your defense is going to look good. Let the season roll and the Patriots D will be exposed. Also helps the officials are on the Kraft payroll.

    ———-

    They also held the Rams to 3 points……how does that factor into your analysis?

  21. This is not a story, the Pats have been favored since the preseason. Their odds have actually gotten worse since they dropped AB.

  22. Patriots #1 defense
    Patriots #1 Against the Pass
    Patriots #1 against the Run

    and those stats are diluted from last minute desperate attempts by Miami and Pittsburgh to score in the waning moments while down 5 score

  23. Pats can’t run the ball. Trent Brown was a beast and they ran to his side all year, him gone hurts more than any other FA loss in recent memory. The line is patch work and its early, so who knows if even more injuries derail them.

    Colts, Ravens, Packers, and a couple sleepers will rise. But the NFL wants Mahomes.

    Probably Chiefs vs. a coin flip between Cowboys,Rams or Packers.

  24. rogergoodellmyhero says:
    September 25, 2019 at 8:03 am
    Rankings of the offenses the Patriots played so far this year:

    Steelers #30
    Dolphins #31
    Jets #32

    When you play horrible offenses like that, of course your defense is going to look good. Let the season roll and the Patriots D will be exposed.
    ======================
    You should’ve stopped right here and it would be a legitimate post, but you could not help yourself and added this nonsense: “Also helps the officials are on the Kraft payroll.” and exposed yourself, again.

  25. The offenses the Patriots have played the haters say…

    I counter that with how many 1st downs have those teams gotten against the Patriots defense?How many times have they gotten into the red zone? How many 3 and outs? Ten yards is a first down… Ten yards.

  26. tylawspick6 says:
    September 25, 2019 at 8:38 am

    ksiner says:
    September 25, 2019 at 8:10 am
    I doubt I’m the only one but Patriots have made the Super Bowl unwatchable. I think last Super Bowl I watched was Denver vs Seattle, what was that like 10 years ago?

    ———————-

    Wait, you missed SB 49 and 51 two of the greatest if not the top 2 greatest SBs ever?

    LOL!

    ______________________________________________________

    You forgot to mention Super Bowl 52…

  27. rogergoodellmyhero says:
    September 25, 2019 at 8:03 am
    Rankings of the offenses the Patriots played so far this year:

    Steelers #30
    Dolphins #31
    Jets #32

    When you play horrible offenses like that, of course your defense is going to look good. Let the season roll and the Patriots D will be exposed. Also helps the officials are on the Kraft payroll.

    ————-

    Let’s review the reasons that is wrong:

    Ben played for the Steelers the first game. That was a legit game. They couldn’t move the ball.

    This Patriots defense is better than the one that held the Rams to 3 points in the Super Bowl. Yes, that’s the team that scored 527 points in the regular season.

  28. how can you dismiss the packers so easily as part of the long shot “crap” when they have an excellent defense and according to simms, the greatest qb in the game? could it be the history of that qb in the biggest situations?

  29. And the Vikings are leading the NFL in rushing after being 30th last year. Early season stats mean nothing, its more a factor of who you’ve played. Patriots aren’t suddenly the 85 Bears and Vikings aren’t suddenly the TB Bucs with Mike Alstott and Warrick Dunn.

  30. The Vegas odds are set based on who is betting on what team. All this means is many people, some of them the same people that are commenters here, have placed a bet on them to win it all.

    So its amusing to see people say I told you so when the odds are just reflections of their bets.

  31. To me these early predictions are just plain silly. The Pats are predicted to win the Superbowl because they have beaten three teams with a combined score of 0-9, and the Dolphins are the worst team in the History of the NFL because they have lost to three teams with a combined score of 8-1? Whatever, I don’t believe that will be the case for either team by the end of the season.

  32. Barring an injury to Mahomes or Brady, there is a minimal chance any other team in the AFC even COMPETES in the AFC Champ Game. The only true contender with a long shot would be the Ravens. Steelers are a hot mess, Broncs, Raiders a disaster. Texans and Chargers are what they are every year…10-6 with an early round exit. Buffalo and Indy are paper tigers…all the rest of complete jokes and will be eliminated as the weeks go on. It’s KC and NE as 1A and 1B, Ravens are a distant 3rd(I think Ravens fans would agree the 3 slot is exactly where they belong too) and everyone else is irrelevant.

  33. This year’s Rams don’t look anywhere near as unbeatable as last year’s. Expect someone else to be in that NFC Championship game.

  34. billsrthefuture says:

    September 25, 2019 at 8:53 am

    Patriots fatigue is real, but this is hardly surprising.

    The league is lopsided this year. It kind of feels like the Pats & Chiefs, and everyone else. And who takes Reid over BB in a big game? Nothing against Reid, who is an outstanding coach, but it’s not even a fair fight anymore. BB & Brady’s big game experience & success is immense…no one else comes close. The Super Bowl is routine for them now.
    ___________________________________________

    Except for a certain long phallused QB who outgunned him in SB52.

  35. ksiner says:
    September 25, 2019 at 8:10 am

    I doubt I’m the only one but Patriots have made the Super Bowl unwatchable. I think last Super Bowl I watched was Denver vs Seattle, what was that like 10 years ago?

    ****************

    This is an attitude I don’t understand. Every Super Bowl the Patriots are in is different, because they adapt to the personnel they have, the type of team the NFC sends, and the situations they are in throughout the game. What’s more, every Super Bowl they’ve been in has been competitive to the end.

    Anybody interested in Xs and Os football should be fascinated to watch the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I can only conclude that someone who finds the Patriots unwatchable has his football mind clouded by emotions. I feel sorry for you.

  36. Chiefs and Pats are on a collision course in the AFC. I think the NFC is wide open. For example, can’t write off Saints, GB, even a couple others. Certainly wouldn’t anoint the Cowboys yet

  37. vikesr4reel says:
    September 25, 2019 at 10:00 am
    Patriots are the favorite to be a fraud

    ———-

    The patriots won more SBs last season than your franchise has in their entire existence. Think about that

  38. I am going on record as saying it’s great to be 3-0, given the o line issues, Watson not playing, new defensive pieces needing time, etc. But the idea that the Patriots are great because they trashed 2 terrible teams without a starting QB and what is left of the Steelers is silly. But it’s better than facing good teams early. I do believe they will win it all, but I didn’t believe it last year until the playoffs, so who am I to judge.

  39. Seahawks have a 6.66% chance to win the NFC…..thats way too high. 1% should be the betting line. But by golly they will make sure to keep a game within one score with a 90% chance of that. The recipients of the mediocre medal…Seattle Seahawks.

  40. raggard says:
    September 25, 2019 at 10:16 am
    To me these early predictions are just plain silly. The Pats are predicted to win the Superbowl because they have beaten three teams with a combined score of 0-9, and the Dolphins are the worst team in the History of the NFL because they have lost to three teams with a combined score of 8-1? Whatever, I don’t believe that will be the case for either team by the end of the season.
    ———————
    No the Pats are favored b/c they have been in 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls winning 3 of them and they don’t look like they are slowing down any.

  41. This isn’t good. If you’re a Patriots fan, you don’t want the team to be favorites. They lost to the Eagles and Giants in all three of those super bowl games as selected favorites. They beat the Seahawks and Falcons, but look at how close those games were. The organization is better off being the underdogs, especially in the post-season.

  42. The Bears and, amazingly, the 49ers are 20-1 and 10-1.

    Why amazingly? 3-0 and much improved this year. If they get to the playoffs…. anything could happen.

  43. Wow Patriots fans are so defensive. I bet if Bills fans were talking about how great their defense were the Patriots homers would swoop right in and say “well you played bad offenses” such hypocrites.

  44. ksiner says:
    September 25, 2019 at 8:10 am
    I doubt I’m the only one but Patriots have made the Super Bowl unwatchable. I think last Super Bowl I watched was Denver vs Seattle, what was that like 10 years ago?
    ————————

    Thats odd to read that a ridiculous blowout is more exciting than close hard fought matches that came down to the wire. What is the reasoning behind that?

  45. chiefseek says:
    September 25, 2019 at 12:51 pm
    If only Dee Ford lined up on sides. Man I am glad he is now in San Fran.

    ————

    If only Mahomes could have led the offense to more than zero points in the 1st half

  46. As the Patriots should be. It’s them and KC, and a long list of maybes afterward.

  47. Betting on the favorites won’t win one much money. Instead, pick a long shot like the 49ers, and there is no need to bet a lot of money and one can still win a pot of gold if they win the Lombardi.

  48. Personally, I think the Cowboys are a long shot and that the Packers have a better chance of winning the SB than Dallas. The difference is the QB. Aaron Rodgers is a first ballot Hall of Famer, one of the all time greats. Dak Prescott has not yet proven himself. I saw him play the 49ers in preseason, and I was not impressed.

  49. SWFLPC.INC says:

    September 25, 2019 at 2:27 pm

    chiefseek says:
    September 25, 2019 at 12:51 pm
    If only Dee Ford lined up on sides. Man I am glad he is now in San Fran.

    ————

    If only Mahomes could have led the offense to more than zero points in the 1st half
    ____________________________________________
    He still scored enough to win and I am very glad he is still a Chief. Keep that in mind. The Pats were one off sides call away from not being the favorites. The only thing holding them above the Chiefs is that loss.

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