PFT’s Week Five picks

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Road teams dominated in Week Four, with 11 of them winning outright. That contributed to a not-so-dominant week for MDS and me in picking games.

He went 8-7, and I went 7-8.

That moves his lead to two games for the season: 36-27 versus 34-29.

This week, we disagree on three games. For all of the picks, scroll away.

Rams at Seahawks

MDS’s take: The NFL gave FOX some excellent Thursday night matchups to start the season, and this is a very big one in the NFC West. I lost some confidence in the Rams on Sunday and think the Seahawks will beat them at home in prime time.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 20, Rams 17.

Florio’s take: It’s a short-week game that Richard Sherman would call a “poopfest,” and it could be a sh-tshow for the Rams, who played a long game in the heat on Sunday versus the Buccaneers. The Seahawks had an easier time of it in a climate-controlled dome, and they’re at home. It’s time for them to stake their claim to the top of the NFC West.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 27, Rams 20.


Jaguars at Panthers

MDS’s take: Before the season no one pegged this as Gardner Minshew vs. Kyle Allen, but that actually might be a better matchup than Nick Foles vs. Cam Newton. I like Allen to remain undefeated as a starter.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 23, Jaguars 17.

Florio’s take: The two teams that joined the NFL in 1995 meet for the seventh time. The 2-2 teams are 3-3 in their series, and it’s Kyle Allen vs. Gardner Minshew. The real battle comes between the fourth and eighth overall picks in 2017, Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey. Home team gets the edge.

Florio’s pick: Panthers 24, Jaguars 20.


Cardinals at Bengals

MDS’s take: Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray finally get their first win, against an absolutely awful Bengals team.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 30, Bengals 17.

Florio’s take: The Bengals had 15,000 empty seats at their home opener. They’ll be lucky to have 15,000 present for this one. But it would be wise to show up — this may be one of their best chances this year at getting a win.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 21, Cardinals 17.


Falcons at Texans

MDS’s take: Things are trending downward in a hurry for the Falcons, who have made the big investments in Matt Ryan and Julio Jones but just don’t have a very good team from top to bottom. The Texans will roll.

MDS’s pick: Texans 30, Falcons 20.

Florio’s take: Dan Quinn’s last season in Atlanta continues in Houston, against a coach who may be in his own last season if his team blows this one. 

Florio’s pick: Texans 20, Falcons 14.


Buccaneers at Saints

MDS’s take: I’m not totally sold on the Saints’ offense with Teddy Bridgewater, but their defense has been better than expected and I think they’ll slow down the Jameis Winston train.

MDS’s pick: Saints 17, Buccaneers 14.

Florio’s take: Two years after Jameis Winston unsuccessfully tried to eat a W in the Superdome, he has another chance to chow down. But the Bucs seem to be too banged up to pull off what would be a signature victory in New Orleans, and the Saints are doing surprisingly well without Drew Brees.

Florio’s pick: Saints 27, Buccaneers 20.


Vikings at Giants

MDS’s take: The Vikings’ offense is a mess right now, but the Giants’ defense is too, and Minnesota should be able to move the ball well enough to avoid a disaster like last week.

MDS’s pick: Vikings 24, Giants 20.

Florio’s take: The biggest matchup in this game is Kirk Cousins vs. Kirk Cousins, as the embattled quarterback tries to make plays (which he should be worried about doing) while keeping fellow players happy (which he shouldn’t be worried about doing). But if the Vikings can run the ball, run the ball, and run the ball against a not-so-good Giants’ defense, Cousins won’t have to win the battle with himself. This week.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 23, Giants 13.


Bears at Raiders

MDS’s take: Khalil Mack gets to show Jon Gruden what he’s missing out on as the Bears get another win in London to move to 4-1.

MDS’s pick: Bears 20, Raiders 7.

Florio’s take: If Jon Gruden doesn’t already regret trading Khalil Mack, Gruden soon will.

Florio’s pick: Bears 24, Raiders 10.


Jets at Eagles

MDS’s take: At least until Sam Darnold returns, the Jets are in the same range as Miami, Washington and Cincinnati as such brutally bad teams I’d pick them only against each other.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 24, Jets 13.

Florio’s take: The Eagles are poised to make a move, especially once they get DeSean Jackson back.

Florio’s pick: Eagles 28, Jets 14.


Ravens at Steelers

MDS’s take: The Steelers have a chance to move into first place in the AFC North this week, if they beat the Ravens and the Browns lose. But for as well as the Steelers played on Monday night, I just don’t think they have the horsepower to keep up with the Ravens.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 30, Steelers 17.

Florio’s take:  The Steelers never got a chance to face Lamar Jackson as a starter in 2018. In 2019, they’ll dust off the hit-him-hard-whenever-you-can playbook from 2012 against RGIII.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 17, Ravens 14.


Bills at Titans

MDS’s take: The Bills’ defense looked good in defeat on Sunday and I think will look even better with a win over Marcus Mariota & Co.

MDS’s pick: Bills 13, Titans 10.

Florio’s take: Nineteen years after the Music City Miracle, this is a game the Titans should win. And, as we know, the Titans only win the games they shouldn’t win.

Florio’s pick: Bills 22, Titans 16.


Patriots at Washington

MDS’s take: New England opened as a 13-point favorite and that quickly moved to 15.5. I think it should be even higher.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 35, Washington 10.

Florio’s take: It may be Jay Gruden’s last stand. Either way, he’ll fall.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 38, Washington 17.


Broncos at Chargers

MDS’s take: I don’t think the Broncos are as bad a team as their 0-4 record suggests, and I think Joe Flacco is playing better than he’s getting credit for. But the Chargers are a better team and should win a competitive game at home.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 27, Broncos 20.

Florio’s take:  The Chargers can’t stumble against the teams they should beat, and they should beat the Broncos.

Florio’s pick: Chargers 30, Broncos 17.


Packers at Cowboys

MDS’s take: This is a big one in the NFC playoff race, and the Cowboys’ offense will bounce back from last week’s rough game to put up some points on the Packers.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 27, Packers 23.

Florio’s take: The Packers may not have Devante Adams, which will make it very hard to run their offense. Even if they do, the Cowboys got a wakeup call on Sunday night. They’ll get it together for a key home game.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 28, Packers 23.


Colts at Chiefs

MDS’s take: It’s hard for me to picture the Colts keeping this one close.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 40, Colts 20.

Florio’s take: The Colts would be wise to try to slow the game down and reduce the number of times the Chiefs have the ball and keep the scoring low. Even if they try, it won’t matter.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 35, Colts 20.


Browns at 49ers

MDS’s take: The 49ers have been one of the pleasant surprises of this NFL season, and they’ll keep it going in what should be an exciting prime time game.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 31, Browns 24.

Florio’s take: The Browns play better away from home, where they don’t feel the intense pressure to satisfy the sky-high expectations in Cleveland. I don’t feel strongly about this one, but the gut-level thinking continues to be that the Browns, who were impressive in Baltimore, will move to 3-2.

Florio’s pick: Browns 24, 49ers 17.

63 responses to “PFT’s Week Five picks

  1. 10 points or 17 points for Washington? That’s very generous. I’m thinking 6 points total on this one.

  2. “If Jon Gruden doesn’t already regret trading Khalil Mack, Gruden soon will.”

    ==========================

    Gruden with his 100 mil. guaranteed salary still won’t regret it even if the Raiders get hammered on Sunday.

    Gruden mainly likes players who have marginal talent and lick his boots in order to get roster spots. Khalil Mack as a talented superstar and a no-nonsense professional simply didn’t qualify so of course Mack had to go.

  3. Did you see how the cowboys played lastweek? and your still going to pick them to beat an ever better team.

  4. But if the Vikings can run the ball, run the ball, and run the ball against a not-so-good Giants’ defense, Cousins won’t have to win the battle with himself.
    ___________

    That can’t be the game plan this week. Go ahead and run the ball but don’t keep doing it just because you can. This passing game needs to get ironed out and the Giants’ pass defense isn’t very good. They need to throw the ball at least 35 times no matter what the score is. Cousins needs practice and confidence, and Thielen and Diggs need to become a bigger part of the offense again.

    That’s not to say that it won’t be a tough game for the Vikings because they could lose to anyone on the road and the Giants have some things going well for them. I’m just saying they need to pass the ball this week.

  5. Patriots 38 Redskins 13 Brady will be back on track this week with some passing to Edelman and White along with some ground game from Michel. Plus I expect the Pats to cause a couple of turnovers or two. Seahawks 30 Rams 20 Goff is being exposed as a turnover machine and quite honestly the Seahawks are hitting their stride at the right time. Ravens 24 Steelers 17 I expect Ingram and Jackson running the football to be the main difference in the game.

  6. tokyosandblaster says:
    October 3, 2019 at 12:19 pm

    Nothing ensures a Packer victory like you two picking against them.
    ________

    Kind of superstitious, aren’t you?

  7. yourmomgoestocollege87 says:
    October 3, 2019 at 12:26 pm
    Did you see how the cowboys played lastweek? and your still going to pick them to beat an ever better team.

    _____________

    Did you see the Packers run defense last week? Or in weeks 2 and 3? It’s a terrible matchup for Green Bay.

  8. Cardinals will get their first win this week, despite having half the team on the injured list. Then they’ll go on to win their next two games as well to get to 3-3-1.

  9. I don’t understand why Mack would be upset with the Raiders. They didn’t want to pay him so they traded him into a better defense with a team that could afford to pay him. They basically traded him for him to make the biggest bucks.

  10. Florio’s take: Nineteen years after the Music City Miracle, this is a game the Titans should win. And, as we know, the Titans only win the games they shouldn’t win.

    Florio’s pick: Bills 22, Titans 16.

    ——————

    Titans haven’t given up 22 pts yet this season & you think the Bills, with Matt Barkley, are going to get there?

  11. floriosnuts says:
    October 3, 2019 at 12:59 pm
    Zero chance Washington puts 17 on the board vs. the Pats. Zero.
    ——————————————–
    As a Bills fan I would say after last weeks game… thats a damn good defense the Pats have and I would be surprised if Washington put up more than 3 points….

  12. Why would they put the Colts and Chiefs on Sunday Night Football? That game won’t even be worth watching. It would be like putting the Patriots and Jets on primetime, which they are already doing later on MNF.

  13. Pats should not have any issues with THIS one! I’m not sure there are ANY teams this Redskins team could beat…maybe the Dolphins since they’re tanking, but that’s about it. Snyder and Allen deserve this crappy team since they built it. I imagine Gruden will be relieved once Tweedle Dumb Snyder and his puppet Tweedle Dee Allen finally fire the guy. Feel sorry for Kerrigan. What a waste of talent to have to play on this bunch of poorly coached losers. Pats 25 – Skins 6….

  14. MDS showing a lot of confidence in the Ravens. I just don’t see it. That Cleveland game really exposed the Ravens defense – a unit that gets more credit through reputation than its actual play would warrant.

  15. savethebs says:
    October 3, 2019 at 1:14 pm
    Florio’s take: Nineteen years after the Music City Miracle, this is a game the Titans should win. And, as we know, the Titans only win the games they shouldn’t win.

    Florio’s pick: Bills 22, Titans 16.

    ——————

    Titans haven’t given up 22 pts yet this season & you think the Bills, with Matt Barkley, are going to get there?

    ______

    No, He expects Josh Allen to do it. (Allen likely to play)

  16. Jaguars over Panther – hard one to decide.. Both qbs are reliable.. good rbs.. I give the edge to the defense.. I’d trust Jags d over panthers..

    Falcons over Texans – If the Falcons get their O-line shored up they can still score often.. Texans D doesn’t look as dominant as they once were.

    Saints over Bucs – Saints are getting it done with Teddy.. The Bucs defense got several turnovers and put their offense in good positions in that crazy Rams win.. Doubtful that is sustainable for that the Bucs week to week.

  17. Florio seriously thinks that a team with the brown’s D can hold Shanaham offense to 17 points at home? bwahahaha. The hate is strong on this one

  18. Alan Light says:

    October 3, 2019 at 12:54 pm

    Fun to think that two games from now Packers will probably be last place in NFC North…
    ——————————————————————————
    Isn’t it amazing to look at Packers vs Lions and assume a Lions win? Still blows my mind but after three straight years of sweeps you just have to face facts

  19. FootballSeasonRules says:
    October 3, 2019 at 12:21 pm
    10 points or 17 points for Washington? That’s very generous. I’m thinking 6 points total on this one.
    ————————————————–
    I think he was assuming Stidman would come in to mop up, throw one or two pick six’s, grab some bench and learn from the master on how to end a game.

  20. Dallas will lose! The 1st three games of the season were cake walks for them! You all saw what happened last week when they had to play a real team!

  21. floriosnuts says:
    October 3, 2019 at 12:59 pm
    Zero chance Washington puts 17 on the board vs. the Pats. Zero.
    ——————————
    Gruden has to go. The Redskins are a ship without a rudder. In a few weeks they will be fighting it out with Miami for the title of worst team in the League

  22. I am calling my shot here. Oakland pulls the upset. I don’t care about Mack. They will do just enough to pull the upset of the Bears.

  23. pulling for the pats to blowout the skins (55-0) and shame little danny into a full rebuild, front office included. although after 20 years i doubt it (the full rebuild part, not the blowout).

  24. Not sure how the Redskins are going to score 17 on Sunday. Wondering if Edelman will even play. Might be a good week off for him.

  25. the vikings will lose to the giants, and possibly in humiliating fashion. i predict sideline arguments that will be quite entertaining.

  26. Fun to think that two games from now Packers will probably be last place in NFC North…
    ——
    Gotta love the irony in a fan of the team that’s currently in last place trolling the first place team. Viking fans have never been very sharp though.

  27. contaminatedthrillz says:
    October 3, 2019 at 1:51 pm
    Dallas will lose! You all saw what happened last week when they had to play a real team!

    ================

    Yes – they lost by 2 points. While the Rams and Ravens each lost by 15, the Vikings by 10, and the Texans by 6.

    The sky’s not close to falling yet.

  28. Seahawks under Pete Carroll in Primetime – 26-5-1 (.828)
    Seahawks under Pete Carroll at home in Primetime – 17-2
    Seahawks under Pete Carroll on Thursday Night – 8-1

    .. see where this is going?

  29. Buffalo’s D is very good, but the way the Pats offense executed last week makes me think they”re gonna take it out on Washington. Skins are in for an epic beatdown, IMO.

  30. Niners are very underrated. They have one of the best run game with a three headed backfield, two speedsters and a short yard /goaline power back.we also have a very good qb with great accuracy and timing, good wr’s and a great tightend. And we have a very good defense that can shutdown the run and pass. This niners team is winning the division. I think we’ll finish with a 14-2 record and home field throughout the playoffs.

  31. Pats schedule is comparatively easy this year. However, their schedule includes: @Balti, @Philly, Dallas, @Houston, KC, Buffalo. Then potentially 3 playoff teams. They won’t win them all, but anyone that thinks playing these teams is gonna make a huge difference are setting themselves up for a huge disappointment. Last yr they were 7-0 against playoff teams.

  32. Titans haven’t given up 22 pts yet this season & you think the Bills, with Matt Barkley, are going to get there?
    ———————————

    Maybe they only score 17, but does it matter because I don’t see the Titans scoring more than 10 against this D.

  33. Different New Lions says:
    October 3, 2019 at 1:38 pm
    Alan Light says:

    October 3, 2019 at 12:54 pm

    Fun to think that two games from now Packers will probably be last place in NFC North…
    ——————————————————————————
    Isn’t it amazing to look at Packers vs Lions and assume a Lions win? Still blows my mind but after three straight years of sweeps you just have to face facts

    —————————————————————————————–

    Okay. You bet on the Lions and I’ll bet on the Packers and we’ll see who is smiling after the game.

  34. As far as Raiders, Khalil will struggle against his old team who knows him well. And Carr will light it up in London for the win. Psst, hey bartender, I’ll have one more for the road!

  35. I only missed one pick last week. I can’t believe I picked the Vikings to beat the Bears.

    Giants over Vikings

    I feel bold this week.

    Steelers over Ravens
    49ers over Browns
    Packers over Cowboys
    Broncos over Chargers
    Bengals over Cardinals
    Bucs over Saints

    But not THAT bold

    Chiefs over Colts (this one will be closer than expected)

    Patriots over Washington
    Eagles over Jets
    Titans over Bills
    Texans over Falcons
    Bears over Raiders (close game)

  36. Why would they put the Colts and Chiefs on Sunday Night Football? That game won’t even be worth watching.

    The game was scheduled back when Andrew Luck was the Colts QB. It actually would have been a good game to watch and since they don’t “flex” games until the 2nd half of the season, it stays as is.

  37. “But the Bucs seem to be too banged up to pull off what would be a signature victory in New Orleans, and the Saints are doing surprisingly well without Drew Brees.”

    The Bucs aren’t missing very many players, not sure where this is coming from.

  38. Packers have beaten the Cowboys 7 of the last 8 matchups, that tells you all you need to know. Packers 49 Cowboys 0

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