Two first-round picks and a fourth-round pick are an offer that’s hard to refuse

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It’s easy to say that a player won’t be traded. It’s much harder to say “no” to a major trade offer.

The Jaguars repeatedly said they won’t trade cornerback Jalen Ramsey, and they tried continuously to unruffle his feathers when it was clear that he wanted to be traded. The resisted. They waited. And they waited some more.

Then they got an offer of two first-round picks and a fourth-round pick for Ramsey. And they couldn’t refuse it.

How many teams could refuse that kind of an offer, for any player? Putting it another way, how many players wouldn’t be traded for two first-round picks and a fourth-round pick, if someone extended that offer?

Short-list franchise quarterbacks would top the “get out of here with that crap” list. Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson. (Both Mahomes and Watson were initially acquired in exchange for, as a practical matter, two first-round picks.) Tom Brady would also fall into that category, although Bill Belichick would at least seriously consider what he could do with those picks before slamming down the phone.

The Packers likely wouldn’t accept such an offer for Aaron Rodgers during what could be a special season. Come March, well, who knows?

For non-quarterbacks, the “no way in hell” list is also very short. Aaron Donald, absolutely. Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley, maybe. Perhaps Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins. And before you say “Khalil Mack,” remember this: The Bears gave up less than two ones and a four to get him from the Raiders, and the Raiders were praised in some circles for the deal.

The added benefit of swapping a veteran for two ones and a four comes from the financial ramifications. McCaffrey, for example, is on the cusp of a major, market-value contract (and possibly a holdout in order to get it). Trading him for draft picks results in cheap, wage-scale labor for four years, with the fifth-year option available for the first-round picks.

Another factor in the final decision would be the status of the relationship between player and team. Ramsey wanted out of Jacksonville. Mack wanted out of Oakland. If the relationship is fractured, it makes sense to get the most for the player and move on — especially when a major package is on the table.

To get that major package on the table, it’s important to take the position that the player won’t be traded. Right up until the point that he is.

32 responses to “Two first-round picks and a fourth-round pick are an offer that’s hard to refuse

  1. Two more first round picks they can use on defensive linemen instead of drafting some offensive linemen.

  2. I don’t know. He was the fifth pick in the draft.

    Are you getting the fifth pick back? Are 16th and 24th picks good enough? Will you be able to select as good of a player again?

  3. Ramsey wanted out of Jacksonville. Mack wanted to get paid and that required leaving Oakland – there is a slight difference. But only slight.

  4. You hang onto once a decade or 2 type player if the rest of the situation with them is in great shape (happy, money, age, etc) Other than that anyone is expendable. That’s one thing I’ve always like about the Patriots. They expect the backups to step up and if you trade a guy it’s truly a next man up situation. Belichick is also good at not asking player to do things outside their ability.

  5. Derwin James looked downright game changing last year working all over the field as a safety, corner, linebacker, and edge rusher, not to mention that he’s early in a rookie contract. Even though he’s out this year, I might have a tough time parting with him for two firsts and a fourth.

  6. Taking the position they won’t be traded fools no one. You said so yourself, everyone has a price. Do you mean to suggest the Rams believed it was impossible to make a sufficient offer to acquire Ramsey? Do you think it’s impossible to make an adequate offer to acquire Russell Wilson? Of course not.

    But on the other side, who thinks the Rams made a good move?
    Plenty of room for skepticism there.

  7. Any player unwilling to play for the team and coming up with fake injuries would be traded for two first rounders and a fourth. It doesnt matter who you are. What good does it do to sit on the players rights? To make a point?

    You might scare other players from taking the same path but you’d probably only be stopping one other person from doing it. Cases like these are pretty small when you look at the NFL as a whole.

    It gets even smaller when you think of the list of people who could do that and have enough talent for another team to actually take them serious afterwards. Take the draft haul and move on. All you guys talk about on here is how the NFL is a business and that would be the smartest business decision. It’s really that simple.

  8. The Jags are singing Christmas carols a little early this year. The gifts are under the tree and the loud-mouthed locker room yapper elf is gone.

  9. I find it hard to believe that the Patriots wouldn’t ship out Brady for two first round picks. IMO, he’d be gone in a heartbeat. You can’t argue about how great he is, but he’s way closer to the finish line than the starting line.

  10. Russell Wilson and Pat Mahomes are the only two NFL players I refuse two 1sts and a 4th for. Offensive lineman would be the next place one would look. The only two lineman I could find that even come close are La’el Collins and Quenten Nelson.

    There are no defensive players today on the game changing level of a Lawrence Taylor or Deion Sanders. So Ramsey for two 1sts and a 4th is a no brainer. As was pointed out last year with the Raiders and Mack, you’re not only getting the two 1sts but the cap space to use in free agency.

  11. Rams gave up way too much on an upgrade from Peters to Ramsey. During the JGaroppolo trade negotiations, Lynch brought up trading Brady. Belichick laughed at him. By the way, where are all the yahoos that said JG stinks. What is he 13-2 now?

  12. mianfr says:
    October 18, 2019 at 12:32 pm
    I don’t know. He was the fifth pick in the draft.

    Are you getting the fifth pick back? Are 16th and 24th picks good enough? Will you be able to select as good of a player again?

    *********************************************************************

    Well, they could’ve kept him, forced him to play by their rules and make him even more angry/uncooperative until his contract ends next year, he walks in free agency, and the Jags get a 3rd round comp pick. Given what I’ve read, sounded like he was eventually leaving either way.

    So, what’s the rational option: (1) an angry player who doesn’t want to be there for the next 1.5 seasons and a 3rd round comp pick in 2021, or (2) a 2020 1st round pick, a 2021 1st round pick, and a 2021 4th round pick. Pretty sure #2 makes more sense.

  13. “And before you say “Khalil Mack,” remember this: The Bears gave up less than two ones and a four to get him from the Raiders, and the Raiders were praised in some circles for the deal.”

    Besides the bad math, you’d be hard pressed to find anybody outside Chicago to say the Raiders didn’t get the better end of the deal.

    The cap space and Josh jacobs alone are worth it, but they also have another 1st rounder coming their way.

  14. What a waste, the Rams defense is super overrated. Also if you put pressure on Goff, the Rams are easily beatable.

  15. No disrespect but both of the lists discussed in the video weren’t good. Even without a sour relationship many of those players would be traded for two first and a 4th. Each for a various number of reasons.

    Theres a short list of players worth that price. Mahomes and Brady would be my list of players worth it. No disrespect to Brady, he is the goat, but if he isnt coming with Bill he’s off my list at this point in his career. With Bill though Brady pretty much is guaranteed to go to the AFC conference game or Superbowl and that alone is worth the price. Mahomes is legit and will only get better and doesnt have an enormous cap hit at the moment.

    How you guys came up with a list bigger than those two is beyond me.

  16. Yes it is hard to refuse, especially if the player refuses to play and has less than a year left on his contract.

    The LAmbs are not easy to beat. New Orleans could not beat them. The 49ers’ victory was not a rout. Even the Tampa Bay game was not lost until it was late in the game. Seattle did not beat them. The LAmbs beat themselves. The play calling on that final drive was bad. they should have called plays that get them a bit closer. 44 yards is easy, but not automatic. If they threw a short completion that got them an extra 5-10 yards instead of incompletions on longer pass plays, they would have walked away with a win and Seattle would be 4-2 at best.

  17. Mack for a RB and essentially swapping 1st and 2nd round picks makes it clearly obvious that the Raiders got the short end of that trade by a large margin

  18. I know the Rams feel like their window is open RIGHT NOW, but they are really making some questionable moves with their future…

  19. dino2997 says:
    October 18, 2019 at 1:18 pm

    Mack for a RB and essentially swapping 1st and 2nd round picks makes it clearly obvious that the Raiders got the short end of that trade by a large margin

    ——————————————–

    You’re not taking into account the $141 million over 6 years to Mack. With half of that money the Raiders signed Trent Brown this year. So the Raiders still have the other half of the money to sign another elite free agent this upcoming year.

    So in reality the trade is Josh Jacobs, Trent Brown, Bears 2020 1st, Bears 2020 3rd and another elite free agent in 2020 for Mack and Raiders 2020 2nd.

  20. And before you say “Khalil Mack,” remember this: The Bears gave up less than two ones and a four to get him from the Raiders, and the Raiders were praised in some circles for the deal.

    It was almost like the dude wasn’t even there in London……he disappears..

    Great trade for Vegas…

  21. aldavisisthenfl says:
    October 18, 2019 at 1:41 pm

    And before you say “Khalil Mack,” remember this: The Bears gave up less than two ones and a four to get him from the Raiders, and the Raiders were praised in some circles for the deal.

    It was almost like the dude wasn’t even there in London……he disappears..

    Great trade for Vegas…

    ____________________

    The Bears didn’t acquire Mack for Vegas, yeah the Raiders won a non conference/non-divisional game. Congratulations.

    The Bears didn’t need Mack to beat the Raiders. They almost beat themselves with fumbles and phantom tosses from Carr. That victory was nothing to be proud of on quality football for the Oakland Raiders. It was clearly out of spite because the Raiders are so pissed they let the best defender go in the game for some unknown draft picks and they feel stupid. It’s obvious because you guys keep bringing it up and Gruden knows he screwed up!

  22. Cdnfootballfan says:

    October 18, 2019 at 12:48 pm

    I find it hard to believe that the Patriots wouldn’t ship out Brady for two first round picks. IMO, he’d be gone in a heartbeat. You can’t argue about how great he is, but he’s way closer to the finish line than the starting line.
    ———–
    Theres about a 0.1 percent chance they would make the deal and no way would it be in a heartbeat. With Brady you have a chance at a superbowl for however many years he plays with 2 1st rd picks what you have is just that 2 1st rd picks. Now maybe if it’s the offseason its before the draft and theres a qb BB thinks is transcendant and 1 of the picks their getting is a top 5 then MAYBE he thinks about it but even then I wouldnt bet on it.

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