PFT’s Week 10 picks

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I’m going to have a hard time catching MDS if we don’t disagree on more games. This week, we disagree only on two.

Best-case, I’ll trim his eight-game margin to six. Worst-case, he’ll have a 10-game lead with seven weeks left.

Last week, we each went 9-5. For the year, he’s now 89-46. I’m at 81-54.

Chargers at Raiders

MDS’s take: The Chargers made a statement with a big win over the Packers on Sunday, but I still think the Raiders are underrated and will keep their playoff hopes alive with a win.

MDS’s pick: Raiders 22, Chargers 17.

Florio’s take: Jon Gruden is back, baby. And the Raiders are making their last year in Oakland one to remember.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 24, Chargers 17.


Chiefs at Titans

MDS’s take: If Patrick Mahomes is good to go, the Chiefs should win this one easily. But even with Matt Moore, I like Kansas City here.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 24, Titans 20.

Florio’s take: Patrick Mahomes or Matt Moore, it won’t matter against an up-and-down Titans team that is a loss or two away from another unexpected winning streak.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 27, Titans 17.


Cardinals at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: The Bucs have suffered some heartbreaking losses when the breaks didn’t go their way. Those things usually balance out over the course of a season, and I expect the Bucs to have a much better record over the rest of the season.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Cardinals 20.

Florio’s take: A record four-game losing streak for Bruce Arians comes to an end against his former team. 

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 26, Cardinals 17.


Giants at Jets

MDS’s take: Two of the worst teams in the NFL share a stadium, and I expect a lot of empty seats even with both teams effectively playing at home. Neither of these teams has done anything to inspire confidence, but the Giants are playing a little better right now and should escape with a win.

MDS’s pick: Giants 20, Jets 17.

Florio’s take: The Snoopy Bowl gets played between a couple of Charlie Browns who have had the football yanked away from them.

Florio’s pick: Giants 23, Jets 17.


Falcons at Saints

MDS’s take: The Falcons’ defense is a mess, and Drew Brees should cruise to a big game.

MDS’s pick: Saints 38, Falcons 24.

Florio’s take: The Falcons could surprise the Saints. They could. They won’t.

Florio’s pick: Saints 31, Falcons 20.


Bills at Browns

MDS’s take: The Browns simply can’t be as bad as they’ve looked so far this season. I think a big special teams play will make the difference, and the Bills will stumble on the road.

MDS’s pick: Browns 17, Bills 16.

Florio’s take: It’s now or never for the Browns. And it could indeed be never. But they’re due to win at home, where they’ve generated an 0-3 record so far this season.

Florio’s pick: Browns 24, Bills 20.


Ravens at Bengals

MDS’s take: Against some teams, the Ravens’ defense could be ripe for a letdown this week. Not against the Ryan Finley-led Bengals offense.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 28, Bengals 3.

Florio’s take: This one has upset potential written all over it, but surely John Harbaugh won’t let the Ravens slip, trip, and fall after a season-defining win over the Patriots.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 31, Bengals 17.


Lions at Bears

MDS’s take: A visit from the Lions’ defense should be the thing to get Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears’ offense back on track.

MDS’s pick: Bears 28, Lions 24.

Florio’s take: The Bears aren’t good, but they aren’t horrible. And with their back against the wall, it’s time to get a win against a Lions team that still hasn’t learned how to.

Florio’s pick: Bears 23, Lions 20.


Dolphins at Colts

MDS’s take: The Colts are still right in the thick of the playoff hunt. They won’t let the Dolphins get two wins in a row.

MDS’s pick: Colts 24, Dolphins 13.

Florio’s take: The Colts will find a way to keep this one closer than it should be, and then they’ll find a way to win. As long as Adam Vinatieri doesn’t hit the turf before hitting the ball. Again. 

Florio’s pick: Colts 20, Dolphins 17.


Rams at Steelers

MDS’s take: I’m impressed with the way the Steelers have played after their ugly start to the season, but I just can’t see the Mason Rudolph-led offense do much against a good Rams defense.

MDS’s pick: Rams 20, Steelers 7.

Florio’s take:  The Super Bowl XIV rematch is a sneaky great game, with the loser having a wrench thrown into their postseason plans. Call it a gut feeling, but the Steelers find a way — even with Pittsburgh native and former Pitt standout Aaron Donald back in town.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 24, Rams 20.


Panthers at Packers

MDS’s take: The Packers turned in a terrible performance against the Chargers last week, but they should get back on track this week.

MDS’s pick: Packers 28, Panthers 17.

Florio’s take: The Panthers can thank the Chargers for what’s about to happen to them at Lambeau Field.

Florio’s pick: Packers 28, Panthers 14.


Vikings at Cowboys

MDS’s take: Dak Prescott isn’t getting enough credit for the outstanding season he’s having. With a big game in prime time against a good Vikings defense, he’ll start to get more credit.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 30, Vikings 21.

Florio’s take: Another big game for the Vikings and Kirk Cousins. Another big opportunity to change the narrative that Cousins can’t deliver in a big spot. Another failure to get it done.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 27, Vikings 17.


Seahawks at 49ers

MDS’s take: Russell Wilson is an MVP candidate running the Seahawks’ offense, but he’ll struggle against the outstanding 49ers defense.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 21, Seahawks 13.

Florio’s take: The 49ers won’t go undefeated, and it’s starting to feel like they’re due to lose. The Seahawks are good enough to be the ones to deliver that first defeat.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 23, 49ers 13.

77 responses to “PFT’s Week 10 picks

  1. Bear vs. Lions, in the battle of stubborn coaches with “their systems”. Their systems blow. I expect a tie.

  2. The media just can’t get off the Browns hype train, even at 2-6. The and the media can’t help but overlook Buffalo, even at 6-2. We will see, should be a good game and it’s in play for either team. The Browns are likely a little better than their record indicates, and the Bills are likely a little worse than their record indicates.

  3. The Ravens/Bengals game will be so brutal, Paul Brown Stadium may be 3/4 empty by halftime.

    Ravens 33
    Bengals 9

  4. The Dolphins win really threw a wrench in the “Tank for Tua” game against the Bengals on 12/22. The NFL was expecting two 0-14 teams facing off for the 1st overall pick, and there was talk about flexing the game into primetime.

  5. Free advice, Mike:

    If you’re going to catch MDS, you’re going to have to go a bit more “out there” on the picks. It’s your only shot. Anything less and you whimper to the finish line.

    It would either be an epic comeback or a spectacular flame out – but that’s the way to live when you can afford to do so!

  6. Lightsabermetrics says:
    November 7, 2019 at 12:31 pm
    The Ravens/Bengals game will be so brutal, Paul Brown Stadium may be 3/4 empty by halftime.
    ——————-
    It will be 3/4 empty at kick-off…

  7. Seahawks over the Niners by 10 on the road.😲

    That is a bit bold there Florio. If the Hawks get a W it will be a tight one.

    I also think the Rams are too desperate for a win to let a Mason Rudolph led Steelers team put their chances for a playoff spot on life support.

  8. I expect the Bills to win big, or lose big. This is a game both teams want to make a statement in. I’m trying to turn my homer hat off here, but I just can’t see Cleveland getting out of its own way against a good defense.

  9. So if the Vikings win Sunday night, what are the odds that the next time the Vikings play a prime-time/big game, we’ll hear about Cousins lousy prime-time/big game record?

  10. So if the Vikings win Sunday night, what are the odds that the next time the Vikings play a prime-time/big game, we’ll hear about Cousins lousy prime-time/big game record?

    —————-

    Pretty much everytime unless he wins a Super Bowl I would imagine.

  11. Absolutely no respect being given to the Bills or the Vikings.

    Cleveland is a bad team, period end of story. Baker Mayfield’s completion percentage is 58.7% (ranked 33rd of qualifying QBs), a yards per attempt average of 7.2 (ranked 18th of qualifying QBs) and 7 TDs (ranked 28th of qualifying QBs) to 12 Ints (leading the league). Those are pitiful numbers and bare in mind that a lot of the QBs with better statistics haven’t played in as many games as Mayfield.

    As for the Vikings and the Cowboys, I am not sure what game you watched last week but the Giants played neck and neck with the Cowboys for the first three quarters and then some really bad coaching happened on the NYG sideline for the fourth quarter. Granted the Cowboys performed in the 4th quarter, but my recollection of the Vikings/Giants game is that the Vikings had that game well in hand throughout the contest.

  12. Cowboys over the Vikings?

    But all I keep hearing is how Cousins is this years MVP after the spectacular October he just had!

  13. As a Seahawks fan, I can never count them out of any game because they always seem to keep it close no matter the competition, for better or for worse – that being said I can’t see their defense holding SF to 13 points.

  14. fwippel says:
    So if the Vikings win Sunday night, what are the odds that the next time the Vikings play a prime-time/big game, we’ll hear about Cousins lousy prime-time/big game record?
    ==

    Quite high, I would imagine.
    If your body of work says you can’t get it done in big games in prime time, finally winning just one isn’t going to do much to change the narrative. Cousins and the Vikings will have to string together several prime/big wins to do that.
    Not hating, just fact.

  15. Not a Dallas fan so hoping Vikes can pull the upset, but w/o a healthy Thielen I dont think so. We need conormacleod to come on and give us his 50 stats showing why Vikes will win.

  16. FOOLS! You fail to take into account the Cardinals had a mini-bye to prepare for BA! The Cards will win in Tampa.

  17. Vikings will win! Cowboys dont do good against solid teams like the Vikings! Everybody get all hyped up when they beat teams like the Giants,Redskins and Dolphins and remember this is the same team that lost to the Jets! Cowboys is how you spell over rated!

  18. Cowboys n vikes
    Saints n falcons
    49ers n hawks

    Those 3 games will be very entertaining. Thats no knock on the rest of the league. I pray no one gets hurt and my saints win.

  19. And why are the niners due for a loss? I could just as easily say the Seahawks are due for a loss. They’re the ones who have been struggling against mediocre teams like the Bucs.

  20. Lolz both you guys picked the wretched dysfunctional Browns over the Bills????

    Hilarious. Bills by 2 TDs or more.

  21. terripet says:
    What’s your record against the spread
    ===

    Point spreads are for gamblers. Unless Messrs. Florio and Smith are actually laying down bets on these picks — and I highly doubt it — who cares what their records are against the spread?

  22. Have you noticed how much worse the Vikings are without Adam Thielan? But the loss to the Chiefs was 100% on Cousins. If he gets pressured he panics. Curt, I mean Kirk does not LIKE TO GET HIT. He was throwing 5 feet over the receivers heads all day. He scrambles and slides 2 yards short of a sure 1st down because he is afraid of being touched! That would have won it, or set up overtime.!
    Playing AWAY at night, Vikings don’t score 17 points, Cowboys 30 Vikes 13…

  23. Bucs over Cardinals – hard to decide… Bucs defense could be good enough, its whether JW throws the game away may make the difference… May be the only chance for Bucs to get another win.

    Saints over Falcons – if you’ve been paying attention; Saints are rolling and Falcons are not.

    Packers over Panthers – Packers are starting to play well as is the Panthers.. Rogers is the difference.

  24. contaminatedthrillz says:
    November 7, 2019 at 1:14 pm
    Vikings will win! Cowboys dont do good against solid teams like the Vikings! Everybody get all hyped up when they beat teams like the Giants,Redskins and Dolphins and remember this is the same team that lost to the Jets! Cowboys is how you spell over rated!
    ________________________________________________________________________

    So the Viking will win! You think the Cowboys do poorly against solid teams! You think they have a lot of hype! They did lose to the Jets!

    See how silly that is when you put an exclamation point after each sentence? We get your hate for Cowboys, but when they win we don’t see a peep out of you.

  25. bleedredwhiteandblue66 says:
    November 7, 2019 at 12:19 pm
    The Bills like when they’re underdogs.
    ****************************************
    Good for them, since they’ve been perennial losers for decades.

  26. Florio’s take: Another big game for the Vikings and Kirk Cousins. Another big opportunity to change the narrative that Cousins can’t deliver in a big spot. Another failure to get it done.
    ____________

    I’d argue if I could. For the most part, the Vikings have lost every game they were expected to lose the last two years (with the probable exception of at Philadelphia last year). I would love to see Kirk and the rest of the team to shock everybody by winning on the road against a winning team in prime time, but I can’t believe it will happen until it happens.

  27. The Vikings could run the table, but lose in OT in the SB and Cousins will be ripped because he “can’t beat good teams”. Ignore them. The Redskins are 2-14 in their last 16 games, but obviously Cousins was the reason they sucked for years.

  28. Bills-Browns: Both teams have unpredictable QBs, but I’m feeling like the advantage should go to the more disciplined team.

    I’m at 89 for the season too, so good luck catching me as well!

  29. Oh darn it anyway. The wrath of the “thing” bestowed on the Pack.

    OK Pack. Get some rest this Friday night.

  30. The Lions would have beat GB if the game had been properly officiated. No way they lose to can Bears.
    Trubiskey makes any team’s defense better.

  31. The winners:

    Raiders, Chiefs, Cards, Giants, Saints, Bills, Ravens, Lions, Colts, Rams, Pack and Vikes.

  32. If Allen was putting up Mayfield numbers with the cast of talented playmakers on that team he would be tarred and feather by the national media. Allen has showed improvement in all aspects of his game ( like Lamar) and still gets slammed. Passer rating and completion% is way up and decision making is much better. If he can only HOLD ON to the ball he’ll be solid. Playoffs this year with 80mil in cap space next year. On the upswing baby!

  33. I know you have to take some risk to catch up, Mike, but picking the Seahawks over the 9ers in Clara?
    Pretty dicey.
    But, you do have the Seahawks MNF record going for you.

  34. I’m a die-hard Seahawk fan and I honestly have no idea how Seattle wins this game with the defense we have. We’re sure to make Jimmy G look like the second coming of Joe Montana as we have basically every QB for the last few games. Our D-backs are the L-O-B-2 (B for “busted-coverage”)

  35. Start spreadin’ the news, I’m not watchin’ Sunday
    Want no part of it
    New York, New York
    These Giants and Jets, are stinking today
    Right through the very heart of it
    New York, New York
    …..

  36. TrubiskyIsGarbageAndTheBearsShouldHaveDraftedMahommes says:
    November 7, 2019 at 12:15 pm

    Bear vs. Lions, in the battle of stubborn coaches with “their systems”. Their systems blow. I expect a tie.

    _____________________________

    Fair enough my arch enemy, fair enough. I actually agree with you.

  37. joetoronto says:
    November 7, 2019 at 1:54 pm

    bleedredwhiteandblue66 says:
    November 7, 2019 at 12:19 pm
    The Bills like when they’re underdogs.
    ****************************************
    Good for them, since they’ve been perennial losers for decades.

    ________________________________________

    Perennial losers for decades??? So have your Raiders. They won the Superbowl 40 years ago and choked to the Patriots 20 years ago.

  38. The Vikings are taking a big chance in this game. They’ve chosen to expose their “vaunted” defense nationally. Soon, the entire country will see a well-deserved reputation being built before their eyes. The reputation of a “vaunted” defense that comes up small in big games will be hard to shake…..and deny.

  39. TrubiskyIsGarbageAndTheBearsShouldHaveDraftedMahommes says:
    November 7, 2019 at 12:15 pm

    Bear vs. Lions, in the battle of stubborn coaches with “their systems”. Their systems blow. I expect a tie.

    _____________________________

    Fair enough, I actually agree with you.

  40. Florio, I hope you’re right and Seahawks hand the FortyNiners their first loss. It feels like it’s going to be a good game. Go Hawks.

  41. joetoronto says:
    November 7, 2019 at 3:15 pm
    Josh Allen is the 45th rated passer in the NFL.

    Just the facts, no delusion.
    ——————————————–
    Fact…..

    2019 win loss records

    Josh Allen 6-2

    Cryin Derek Carr 4-4

  42. The 49ers are due to lose? Great analysis Florio. Here’s some real analysis: The 49ers are 3rd in Points scored; the Seahawks are 21st in points given up. The 49ers are at home where they beat the Seahawks last year with a much lesser team than they’ll field Monday night. My guess is you are 10 back of MDS after this week.

  43. ARod(in his collarbone) says:
    November 7, 2019 at 12:40 pm
    Chip on their shoulders, Vikings 28 Cowboys 21

    Hilarious. When the Vikings lose, it’ll be the ref’s fault OR if all else fails maybe somehow the Packers. Cousins, primetime – we’ve seen this before. His mistake(s) doom them (again)

  44. eoneil32 says:
    November 7, 2019 at 3:35 pm
    joetoronto says:
    November 7, 2019 at 1:54 pm

    bleedredwhiteandblue66 says:
    November 7, 2019 at 12:19 pm
    The Bills like when they’re underdogs.
    ****************************************
    Good for them, since they’ve been perennial losers for decades.

    ________________________________________

    Perennial losers for decades??? So have your Raiders. They won the Superbowl 40 years ago and choked to the Patriots 20 years ago.
    ***************************************
    I’ll take 3 Super Bowls over ZERO any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

    #neverwonathing

  45. Funny Joe talking about perennial losers. Despite the Bill mediocrity for 20 years, they still can always look to the Raiders, and say hey we’re better than them. They have been and still are better Joe. Facts. The only one that’s delusional is you – you actually think you live in Toronto, but you’re likely from Buffalo with just no friends, so understandably angry. id talk actual football, but you wouldn’t comprehend it.

  46. Florio’s take: The 49ers won’t go undefeated, and it’s starting to feel like they’re due to lose. The Seahawks are good enough to be the ones to deliver that first defeat.

    ———-

    Fortunately for the 49ers there’s no such thing as “due”. The Seahawks may win because they are good. That’s about it.

  47. 49ers go 16-0 regular season, Edelman catches pass behind his back to beat them in Super Bowl.

  48. Ravens 27 Bengals 17 Ravens run attack is vicious Jackson and Ingram get another big day. Bills 20 Browns 10 Mayfield sucks in the red zone Bills defense feasts on his mistakes. Cowboys 31 Vikings 21 Still don’t trust Kirk Cousins against winning teams.

  49. Had a feeling they would split picks on MNF. Because, 8-0, at home! But also, 7-2, and Russell Wilson in primetime!

    Thing is about the stats, is that Pete Carroll allows that teams will run roughshod on his D sometimes, but they are coached to be opportunistic, capitalize on big plays and momentum.

    If the 9ers play clean and avoid foolish errors, they will win by 3 scores. If things go Pete’s way, Russell Wilson will get the ball at the end with a chance to win or tie.

    If the Seahawks win, it will be 31-29 or something like that. Niners, 28-9 -ish

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