PFT’s Week 11 picks

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I’m making my push. Finally.

Down eight games through nine weeks, I picked up a pair of wins last week, thanks to the Steelers and Seahawks.

Sure, I was only 8-5. But MDS was 6-7. For the year, he’s now 95-53. I’m at 89-59.

This week, we disagree on two more games. For all the picks, scroll along.

Steelers at Browns

MDS’s take: This isn’t as good a game as it looked like when the NFL put it on the prime time schedule, but it’s still an interesting matchup between two teams that still have playoff hopes but know they have no margin for error. I like the Steelers to earn a hard-fought road win.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 21, Browns 20.

Florio’s take: The Steelers are becoming the team that the Browns were supposed to be.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 27, Browns 21.


Jets at Washington

MDS’s take: This is an ugly game between two bad teams, but the difference to me is I just don’t think Dwayne Haskins is ready to win in the NFL, so the Jets take this one.

MDS’s pick: Jets 17, Washington 13.

Florio’s take: Fortunately, this one didn’t land in prime time.

Florio’s pick: Jets 27, Washington 20.


Saints at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: The Saints suffered a huge letdown last week against the Falcons. I can’t see them playing like that two weeks in a row.

MDS’s pick: Saints 20, Buccaneers 13.

Florio’s take: Redemption won’t be easy against a Bucs team that is much better than its record suggests.

Florio’s pick: Saints 30, Buccaneers 27.


Broncos at Vikings

MDS’s take: Brandon Allen was better than expected in his first NFL start, but a hostile environment in Minnesota could make this an ugly game for him.

MDS’s pick: Vikings 28, Broncos 10.

Florio’s take: The Vikings can enter their 2019 bye with as many wins as they had in all of 2018.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 30, Broncos 17.


Bills at Dolphins

MDS’s take: Could the Dolphins really make it a three-game winning streak? I don’t think so.

MDS’s pick: Bills 20, Dolphins 10.

Florio’s take: The correction continues, for both teams.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 23, Bills 20.


Jaguars at Colts

MDS’s take: The Colts suffered an embarrassing home loss last week. I don’t see them playing that way two in a row. Nick Foles will be rusty and the Colts’ defense will play well against him.

MDS’s pick: Colts 24, Jaguars 17.

Florio’s take: The return of Nick Foles combined with the ongoing presence of Adam Vinatieri combines to give the Jaguars a narrow win.

Florio’s pick: Jaguars 20, Colts 17.


Cowboys at Lions

MDS’s take: The Lions’ season is spiraling down the tubes, and whether Matthew Stafford is playing or not, I don’t see them beating the Cowboys.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 28, Lions 20.

Florio’s take: The Cowboys are becoming this year’s win-the-games-they-should, lose-the-games-they-should franchise.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 28, Lions 21.


Falcons at Panthers

MDS’s take: The Falcons showed some signs of life last week, but this is still a mess of a defense. Kyle Allen should have a big game.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 31, Falcons 24.

Florio’s take: If the Falcons swipe this one, the short-term coach chalice could be passed from Dan Quinn to Ron Rivera.

Florio’s pick: Panthers 27, Falcons 20.


Texans at Ravens

MDS’s take: Deshaun Watson vs. Lamar Jackson may be my favorite quarterback matchup of the season. Jackson’s team ends up scoring a late touchdown in an exciting one.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 35, Texans 31.

Florio’s take: The first of hopefully many meetings between Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson could be a great one. 

Florio’s pick: Ravens 31, Texans 24.


Cardinals at 49ers

MDS’s take: The 49ers have to bounce back from a tough overtime loss on a short work week, but their defense should be good enough to do just that in a low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 16, Cardinals 13.

Florio’s take: A 70-minute game followed by a short week could be trouble for the 49ers. But with the Packers, Ravens, and Saints looming, they can’t afford to slip here.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 34, Cardinals 21.


Patriots at Eagles

MDS’s take: The Patriots’ defense should give Carson Wentz fits. I see New England winning this one big.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 24, Eagles 10.

Florio’s take: When Bill Belichick has two weeks to get ready, he’s very hard to beat. Except, of course, when facing Doug Pederson in the Super Bowl. But the Pats are better than the Super Bowl LII team, and the Eagles aren’t as good as they were then.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 26, Eagles 20.


Bengals at Raiders

MDS’s take: The Raiders are better than anyone expected and the Bengals are worse than anyone expected.

MDS’s pick: Raiders 21, Bengals 7.

Florio’s take: The Raiders are rolling. The Bengals are bumbling. This could get uglier than the infield that used to be in the stadium the Raiders will soon be leaving.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 41, Bengals 20.


Bears at Rams

MDS’s take: The Rams are running out of chances to turn their season around. I still think they’re a long shot to make the playoffs, but I do think they should win at home against the Bears.

MDS’s pick: Rams 24, Bears 21.

Florio’s take: It’s a playoff elimination game between two teams that probably won’t make the playoffs.

Florio’s pick: Rams 24, Bears 17.


Chiefs at Chargers

MDS’s take: The Chargers are giving up a home game to play in Mexico City, not that they have much of a home-field advantage anywhere. The Chiefs need to bounce back from their disappointing loss to the Titans, and I think they’ll do just that.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 30, Chargers 20.

Florio’s take: It’s hard to have any faith in a guy who threw seven straight incompletions with the game on the line last Thursday.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 34, Chargers 20.

64 responses to “PFT’s Week 11 picks

  1. The Eagles will upset the Patriots. Then, everyone will be saying how the Patriots are done, the defense is overrated, the dynasty is over, and how Brady is awful. Next, they’ll finish the season 14-2 with another super bowl win.

  2. Senior Florio, how many defensive scores are you suggesting to get to a high scoring game for San Fransisco considering the players they are likely missing?

  3. Here are the top upsets of the week: Eagles over Patriots, Texans over Ravens, and Falcons over Panthers

  4. “Florio’s take: When Bill Belichick has two weeks to get ready, he’s very hard to beat. Except, of course, when facing Doug Pederson in the Super Bowl. But the Pats are better than the Super Bowl LII team, and the Eagles aren’t as good as they were then”

    ______

    I concur. I wish more people would bring up the fact that the Patriots health was a major reason that 2017 Patriots defense was so bad late in the year and the Super Bowl. They had 6 defensive players that they used consistantly earlier in the year, that were out for the year on IR.

    Defensive Players out for the year before the playoffs:
    Dont’a Hightower, Jonathan Jones, Alan Branch, Harvey Langi (who was amazing as a rookie before that brutal car crash), Shea McClellin, Vincent Valentine

    That doesn’t count the 3 Starters on Offense out for the year on Offense:
    Marcus Cannon, Martellus Bennett, Julian Edelman, Malcolm Mitchell,

    Kudos to the Eagles, but it was truly amazing that THAT beat up Patriots team made the Super Bowl. It was the worst overall roster of Patriots players to make a Super Bowl since Giants vs Patriots in Feb 2012.

    Another amazing job by Brady and Belichick.

  5. Flawless execution of a run-heavy game plan is the only recipe for an Eagles win. I just don’t think Doug has it in him to keep the ball on the ground more than, at best, 50/50. That will give Brady more than enough possessions to exploit the mediocre back 7 of the Eagles.

  6. Jaguars 27
    Colts 17

    The Monsters of Saxsonville will travel to Indy and punish and harrass Brissett all game long and The return of #SaintNick will lift the Jags Offense to new heights … You can bet your bottom dollar on this one … Book it Baby !!!

  7. Imagine if the 49ers lost to the Cardinals prior to playing the Packers, Saints, Ravens, Rams, and Seahawks again up in Seattle. That would possibly derail their entire season.

  8. One thing to pay close attention to is the College Football Playoffs. In every single season the Crimson Tide won the national championship, the Patriots did not win the super bowl. Alabama won in 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, and 2017. New England lost to the Ravens in the wild card game in 2009, lost to the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI in 2011, lost to Baltimore again in the 2012 AFC championship game, lost to the Broncos in the 2015 AFC championship game, and lost to the Eagles in Super Bowl LII in the 2017 season.

    Each time the Clemson Tigers won it all, so did the Patriots. They beat the Falcons and Rams, just like how the Tigers beat the Crimson Tide twice. If Ohio State wins it all this season, that will be a good indicator for New England. However, if LSU wins it all, two things could happen: the Saints collapse in Super Bowl LIV or at some point in the playoffs to emulate the Hard Rock Hotel collapsing, or they end up winning it all. LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, and Georgia are all in the playoff race. This is all synched up.

  9. Saints over Bucs – Saints got caught unprepared and overlooking their opponent last week… No worries of that this week.. the only true mystery is how many points will JW give them..

    Falcons over Panthers – should be a good game.. it would be easy to pick the Panthers based on the season BUT the Falcons did not win last week by accident or Saints errors… Their defense stepped up and showed the change they made helped.. Allen is no Drew Brees and MCc is no Camera…

  10. ninefingers9 says:
    November 14, 2019 at 12:40 pm
    If the Packers are off this week does that mean their refs have the week off as well?

    —-

    that doesn’t change the fact that your queens are still two games back, deal with it!

  11. ravensaresuperior says:
    November 14, 2019 at 12:24 pm
    Ravens – Texans best game of the week.
    ——————————
    Agreed. I don’t know how all of this “flexing” works but, at a minimum, this should be a 4:00 game

  12. Ravens/Texans will be fun, but it won’t be particularly close. Ravens D is playing tighter and stronger every week, and Lamar is unstoppable. Deshaun Watson will hit a wall.

    Ravens 30
    Texans 17

  13. belichickdominatedmontana says:
    November 14, 2019 at 12:39 pm
    “Florio’s take: When Bill Belichick has two weeks to get ready, he’s very hard to beat. Except, of course, when facing Doug Pederson in the Super Bowl. But the Pats are better than the Super Bowl LII team, and the Eagles aren’t as good as they were then”

    ______

    I concur. I wish more people would bring up the fact that the Patriots health was a major reason that 2017 Patriots defense was so bad late in the year and the Super Bowl. They had 6 defensive players that they used consistantly earlier in the year, that were out for the year on IR.

    Defensive Players out for the year before the playoffs:
    Dont’a Hightower, Jonathan Jones, Alan Branch, Harvey Langi (who was amazing as a rookie before that brutal car crash), Shea McClellin, Vincent Valentine

    That doesn’t count the 3 Starters on Offense out for the year on Offense:
    Marcus Cannon, Martellus Bennett, Julian Edelman, Malcolm Mitchell,

    Kudos to the Eagles, but it was truly amazing that THAT beat up Patriots team made the Super Bowl. It was the worst overall roster of Patriots players to make a Super Bowl since Giants vs Patriots in Feb 2012.

    Another amazing job by Brady and Belichick
    ————————————————————-

    Nick Foles was the Eagles QB in the Super Bowl. Call me when Brady gets knocked out in week 11 and the Pats still make it to the dance.

  14. masoncrossbar says:
    November 14, 2019 at 1:50 pm
    ninefingers9 says:
    November 14, 2019 at 12:40 pm
    If the Packers are off this week does that mean their refs have the week off as well?

    —-

    that doesn’t change the fact that your queens are still two games back, deal with it!

    ——————————————————————
    One game silly child and it will be made up at US Bank stadium. Good luck taking the division after a loss to the 49ers.

  15. The Dolphins seriously outplayed the Jills in buffalo, on every front other than the final score. So, that proved the jills are a paper tiger

  16. masoncrossbar says:
    November 14, 2019 at 1:50 pm
    ninefingers9 says:
    November 14, 2019 at 12:40 pm
    If the Packers are off this week does that mean their refs have the week off as well?

    —-

    that doesn’t change the fact that your queens are still two games back, deal with it!

    @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

    Packers 8-2
    Vikings 7-3

    Below is the packers beat writer Rob Demvosky who is saying the packers have a one game lead. Math is hard in WI. And its the Vikings sonny.

    “Most important game left: Dec. 23 at Vikings

    Yes, the Nov. 24 game at the 49ers might help decide first-round playoff byes, but the Packers likely will be underdogs there, so the NFC North race might be more important if the Packers can’t upset the 49ers. With the Vikings only a game behind, a sweep of Minnesota could be key to winning the division”. — Rob Demovsky

  17. chrisg5988 says:
    November 14, 2019 at 12:34 pm

    Florio picking the Dolphins to upset is always the kiss of death
    ________

    Yeah, they’d win a lot more games if Florio didn’t pick them to win.

  18. masoncrossbar says:
    November 14, 2019 at 1:50 pm

    ninefingers9 says:
    November 14, 2019 at 12:40 pm
    If the Packers are off this week does that mean their refs have the week off as well?

    —-

    that doesn’t change the fact that your queens are still two games back, deal with it!
    __________

    If the Vikings win this week they’ll have the same number of wins as the Packers, but Packer fans will still claim they’re two games back.

  19. “Florio makes as many “thanks Captain Obvious” statements as he does picks. No hot takes here… Get rid of him.”

    Lol you do realize this is Florio’s site don’t you?

    SMH

  20. golferinminny says:
    November 14, 2019 at 1:29 pm

    Florio makes as many “thanks Captain Obvious” statements as he does picks. No hot takes here… Get rid of him.
    __________

    Pretty sure he owns the place so he can do whatever he wants.

  21. uravagina says:
    November 14, 2019 at 2:23 pm

    Nick Foles was the Eagles QB in the Super Bowl. Call me when Brady gets knocked out in week 11 and the Pats still make it to the dance.

    6 6 Rate This

    _______________

    24 year old, 6th round pick Tom Brady was the Patriots QB in 2001 when they won the Super Bowl when Drew Bledsoe and his $100 Million dollar contract was injured in 2001.

    Call me when Pederson and Foles wins a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th Super Bowl.

    Oh, that’s right. They aren’t together anymore.

  22. FootballSeasonRules says:
    November 14, 2019 at 1:21 pm

    One thing to pay close attention to is the College Football Playoffs. In every single season the Crimson Tide won the national championship, the Patriots did not win the super bowl. Alabama won in 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, and 2017. New England lost to the Ravens in the wild card game in 2009, lost to the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI in 2011, lost to Baltimore again in the 2012 AFC championship game, lost to the Broncos in the 2015 AFC championship game, and lost to the Eagles in Super Bowl LII in the 2017 season.

    Each time the Clemson Tigers won it all, so did the Patriots. They beat the Falcons and Rams, just like how the Tigers beat the Crimson Tide twice. If Ohio State wins it all this season, that will be a good indicator for New England. However, if LSU wins it all, two things could happen: the Saints collapse in Super Bowl LIV or at some point in the playoffs to emulate the Hard Rock Hotel collapsing, or they end up winning it all. LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, and Georgia are all in the playoff race. This is all synched up.
    ____________

    That’s an excellent analysis. Now can you tell me who will win the Super Bowl if Minnesota wins the national championship? I hope it’s the Vikings. What a month that would be.

  23. marshall420pm says:
    November 14, 2019 at 1:04 pm
    Did Florio really take the dolphins over Bills ? Has to be trying to make up ground in picks.

    ———————————–

    The Dolphins and Bills are equal teams. The Dolphins just haven’t had the benefit of beating teams with under a .200 winning percentage. 3 point advantage for the home team.

  24. MDS’s take: The Patriots’ defense should give Carson Wentz fits. I see New England winning this one big.
    —————————–
    Pats defense overrated – signed – Ravens fan.

  25. If the Vikings win this week they’ll be 1.5 games back. Having a 1-2 division record means even if the two teams beat each other at home, and wind up with the same record, the Packers will still have a tie breaker.

    If the situation were reversed, Vikings fans would be saying exactly what we are saying. And we wouldn’t be denying it because we understand sports standings.

  26. somefans says:
    November 14, 2019 at 2:32 pm
    The Dolphins seriously outplayed the Jills in buffalo, on every front other than the final score. So, that proved the jills are a paper tiger
    —–
    Don’t worry, they’ll still be considered paper tigers after they Win by 21 on Sunday. After all, it’s the Dolphins.

  27. war27 says:

    The Dolphins and Bills are equal teams. The Dolphins just haven’t had the benefit of beating teams with under a .200 winning percentage. 3 point advantage for the home team
    —————
    If they were equal they’d be 6-3 as well, but they’re not are they?

  28. belichickdominatedmontana says:
    November 14, 2019 at 2:50 pm

    24 year old, 6th round pick Tom Brady was the Patriots QB in 2001 when they won the Super Bowl when Drew Bledsoe and his $100 Million dollar contract was injured in 2001.

    Call me when Pederson and Foles wins a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th Super Bowl.

    Oh, that’s right. They aren’t together anymore.
    ————————————————————————–

    This would be a valid point, if you weren’t crying over the injuries the Pats were suffering from in LII. My point remains, we lost our QB – arguably our best player, while you guys had your best 2 on the field.. Time to get over it, buddy.

  29. billsbackto81 says:
    November 14, 2019 at 4:14 pm

    If they were equal they’d be 6-3 as well, but they’re not are they?

    —————–

    Not everyone is a lucky to beat these records on the way to 6 wins:

    2 – 7
    2 – 8
    0 – 9
    5 – 5
    2 – 7
    1 – 8

  30. war27 says:

    Not everyone is a lucky to beat these records on the way to 6 wins:

    2 – 7
    2 – 8
    0 – 9
    5 – 5
    2 – 7
    1 – 8
    ———-
    Buffalo didn’t make up their schedule and every team started 0-0. Not Buffalos fault or problem. Not their concern the other teams are a hot mess and no need to feel the need to apologize for wins.

  31. The winners:

    Browns, Jets, Saints, Vikes, Fins, Colts, Cowboys, Panthers, Ravens, Niners, Eagles, Raiders, Rams and Chiefs.

  32. Miami beat the Colts
    Jets beat Dallas
    Browns beat Baltimore
    Falcon beat Saints

    A lot of contending teams will lay an egg to a bottom feeder. Bills are no exception.

  33. Nick Foles was the Eagles QB in the Super Bowl. Call me when Brady gets knocked out in week 11 and the Pats still make it to the dance

    So far, Foles is the better qb over Wentz. Let me know when that changes.

  34. Patriots 27 Eagles 20 The Pats will get their play action game to Sanu and Edelman going and stop the run just enough to win. Ravens 30 Texans 17 not a believer in the Texans at all especially their defense. Bills 24 Dolphins 13 Fins always have trouble with the Bills

  35. We need some spice added into these below par locker room gossip queens, who are horrible are picking games. Can you ladies add a dolphin jumping through hoops or a goldfish or a pony or something scratching its hooves as a 3rd competitor picking these games? Chances are the participant from the animal kingdom would have a ten game lead at this point. And the rest of us would be entertained. Laces out boys.

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