Will the Rams regret the Jared Goff long-term contract?

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With defensive tackle Aaron Donald‘s second contract, the Rams dragged their feet through a pair of offseason and preseason holdouts, eventually (and begrudgingly) paying Donald on the brink of the fifth and final year of his rookie deal. With running back Todd Gurley and quarterback Jared Goff, the Rams moved much more quickly.

As to both, they may regret it.

They surely already regret Gurley’s deal. Paid as a workhorse tailback, he simply no longer is one. And it sets up a $10.5 million decision in March that could end Gurley’s time with the team, barring a restructuring based on the reality that the Rams may be willing to pay Gurley more than anyone else will, if/when he’s cut.

The Rams also may regret Goff’s deal. He wasn’t clamoring for a new contract, at least not publicly. And while it may have gotten more expensive to sign him if he built on his 2018 performance with an even better season in 2019, giving him $33.5 million per year and $110 million guaranteed carries the risk of injury and regression. Regression is what’s happening this season for Goff.

His average gain per pass has dropped by more than a yard this year. His completion percentage is down three points. He has 11 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions; last year, he finished with 32 and 12. His passer rating of 80.3 ranks 27th among all current starters. It’s simply not the kind of performance that justifies the kind of contract he received.

So why did they give it to him? He had a poor performance in Super Bowl LIII, punctuated by a failure to see receiver Brandin Cooks when he popped wide open for what would have been a first-half touchdown and then seeing Cooks too late (and delivering the ball too wobbly) when they ran the same play after a 30-minute halftime that likely included plenty of chatter about how they’ll use the same play again and that his time Goff should throw it to Cooks.

Then came the offseason, with ample talk-radio takes about the the ever-increasing quarterback market and the question of whether, at some point, a team will simply choose not to pay a quarterback who is due for a second contract, finding another one instead. Some (including me) suggested that the Rams may be the team to do it, opting not to pay Goff market value and deciding to find someone else who can be groomed to run coach Sean McVay’s system.

McVay pushed back, loudly and repeatedly extolling the virtues of Jared Goff. As noted in mid-July, McVay’s defense of his franchise quarterback could increase considerably the cost of re-signing him; indeed, coaches and executives routinely tread lightly when it comes to publicly praising players who are close to getting new contracts, because anything they say can and will be used against them by the players’ agents.

By late August, the Rams said they weren’t focused on paying Goff. Then, within a week, they had. Possibly at the behest of a skilled agent who argued that the praise would ring hollow unless and until they put owner Stan Kroenke’s money where McVay’s mouth is.

Now they’re stuck. The contract structure makes it virtually impossible to cut Goff before 2023, so they’ll have to love the one they’re with, for at least three more seasons. Which means periodically defending him against the cold hard truth of poor statistical performances.

“I’m not worried about the statistical things because I know — whether it be QB rating, things like that — that can get skewed based on how much is weighted on interceptions and touchdowns,” McVay told reporters on Tuesday. “Sometimes there’s decisions that we can do a better job with and then sometimes it’s not always a reflection of him. What I’m concerned — I don’t want to say I’m concerned — but where there’s an urgency is we’ve got to be better as an offense overall. Coaches, players, we’re all a part of this. It’s not just Jared. It’s a collaboration of the unit and that’s why football is the greatest team sport there is. I think everybody — especially just for our team as a whole — we can all look inward, figure out what we can do better. That’s what we’ve got to do and we’ve got to start seeing those things show up.”

That’s a very carefully worded answer, and for good reason. It’s not McVay’s style to throw his guys under the bus, even when his guy hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in a month. Unfortunately, it is McVay’s style to throw them huge money before he has to, and as the Rams count the days until they can escape Gurley’s deal, they’ll also be counting the months until they can tear up the contract that they didn’t have to give to Goff, but did anyway.

112 responses to “Will the Rams regret the Jared Goff long-term contract?

  1. That 2016 NFL draft Goff-Wentz one two punch is looking really bad right now. Especially since both teams crippled themselves giving massive contracts to guys who hadn’t really proven themselves yet.

    Goff has been bad to mediocre except for last season when he had a Cinderella run until the clock struck midnight at the Super Bowl.

    Wentz has been mediocre except for a stretch in 2017 when he looked like MVP until his ACL blew out.

    They have plenty left to prove to earn their money.

  2. Great to see for the Rams. Also good to see what they have up for Ramsey. Hope it sets them back for years to come.

  3. The man’s fine. He’s showed all what he’s can do. It’s not all on him and it would be a mistake to give up on him.

  4. In the next 2 years there will be a long list of regrets in the Rams organization.

    But, they’re home now, so there’s that.

  5. Look to NE. When the offense is sputtering, the QB steps up and says “we need to do better as an offense.” When the coach speaks, he isn’t “concerned” or name players. He says “we all need to do better”. Last night the rams d played like a high school team. No need to single out Goff.

  6. The Rams got punked. You see, back when the likes of Goff and Wentz came around, there were no Lamar Jacksons, Deshaun Watsons, Patrick Mahomeses, or Kyler Murrays. Now these next generation types are popping up all over the place and the Rams are left out.

  7. $110 mill?
    that’s bananas and, yes they regret it every week Goff keeps missing 15 yd 3rd and 10 come backs

  8. Rams: Pay their defensive tackle and running back big bucks, then commit enormous money to a quarterback.

    Cowboys: Pay their wide receiver and running back big bucks, then commit enormous money to a quarterback.

    At some point, a GM will be wise enough to tag his quarterback and beg another team to sign him away. You can build a very deep roster with a cheap quarterback and succeed, the Packers proved that. Soon as Rodgers got paid, their depth went to Kleenex.

  9. Will they? They obviously already do – along with all of the other moves that have a 6-5 team with tons of holes in the roster in cap hell with no 1st round picks for 3 years.

  10. If the Rams get Goff some decent pass protection he might play better ! Most the league knows this guy hates pressure and being sacked !

  11. Tons of players don’t live up to their deals. Goff’s deal may be a terrible one but at least they made it to a SB so it will always be better than what the Texans gave Brock

  12. The LOLA Rams. You deserve this, Stan, after what you did to St. Louis and robbing San Diego of its franchise to pay for the temple to your ego. Los Angeles has never been a football city…it’s going to be a whole heck of a lot of fun watching your franchise crash and burn in front of a quickly diminishing crowd.

  13. Has anyone done a statistical analysis of player performance in the years following a major increase in expected compensation? A huge contract would seem to be a disincentive to breakthrough performance. I like Florio’s idea of simply moving on to another player who is hungry to prove himself.

  14. The short answer is yes. They will regret it if they don’t already. Goff was the product of the perfect environment. One of the best offensive lines in football, great skill position players, a shutdown defense, and a coach who could diagnose a defense and relay it to his QB before the mic cut out.

    Half of the offensive line is gone from last year, the dominant running game is gone, the clean pocket is gone and the defense can’t stop anyone. Oh and defenses now regularly change alignments after the mic cuts out meaning Goff has to do his own thinking.

    The Rams are in cap hell, something everyone said couldn’t happen because the Rams were managing the cap so well and that they had money to pay everyone. They also have no draft picks to bring in new CHEAP talent. They also have to give Ramsey whatever he wants because they traded 2 1sts for him.

    There’s more issues with the Rams but Woods concussions, etc but the short answer is welcome back to the basement, get comfortable because it’s going to be years to dig out of these contracts, especially without picks.

  15. I think Goff is still a damn good qb, but he has no run game, gurly completely fell off, and his wr’s have been injured all year. He has nobody to throw to except for cupp. And his oline is struggling to pass and run block. Also his,defense is,getting blown out, the defense is terrible. It’s not all on Goff. There’s alot wrong with the rams, offense and defense.

  16. This is like all other qb deals. Looks bad now but as more and more guys set the market (mahomes, Watson and Jackson will all get new deals within 3 years), goffs deal will look more affordable. That Todd Gurley deal is never going to look good though.

  17. You can win with Goff IF everything around him is in place. Unfortunately it is not! They let two of their better offensive lineman leave in the offseason without adequate replacements. Their secondary added Ramsey which is great but let Joyner and Peters leave. Their linebackers are average and it is obvious that Matthews has lost a step(s). They do not have playmakers on the defensive line when Donald is double teamed. The biggest problems of all is that Ramsey wants a BIG payday, they don’t have a lot of salary cap available and they keep trading draft choices. When they do draft it has not been great. Keeping things around Goff is going to be a huge problem.

  18. They’d be in better shape cap wise if they hadn’t traded away so many draft picks. With the current CBA you get those guys at way below market value on their rookie contracts if, and that’s a big if, you hit on the picks.

  19. Marino. Brady. Montana. Manning. Unitas. And on and on.

    Their names flow off the tongue, resonate in stadiums.

    Goff and Wentz sound like toads in a poor-selling children’s book

    They were never going to be great.

  20. I don’t know if the Rams will regret the cost of the Jared Goff long-term contract, but I do know they already regret the cost of their stadium overruns.

  21. It’s not easy to find a quarterback who’s somewhat above average, what else could they have done?

    I think the issue is paying Gurley a huge deal and trading two first rounders for Jalen Ramsey. Teams can always work around a QB’s high salary as long as they get production from some cheap players and avoid having lots of dead weight on their team. Look at the Saints. They pay Brees the going rate yet still have an elite OL and very good young defense along with some great weapons.

    At this point, you have to construct a roster assuming your QB will make 25M+ in 3 years, because if not, you’re looking for a new one.

  22. Running backs are never worth that money. Spend it on the offensive line. Find a great running back and you’ll find a great offensive line. The opposite is generally true also

  23. McVay is just as responsible as Goff. If Goff is a system QB and doesn’t get the option to call his own plays at the line then his coach and the system are failing him . McVay was overrated from the start. Now that everyone has him figured out he can’t win consistently anymore.

  24. How about Dak Prescott. The guy has career numbers this year and he hasn’t been paid squat. Forget career numbers. Dak has never missed a start. And has never been a turn over machine. His career QB rating is remarkable. The guy is the most reliable out of all of them.

  25. Let see here. Wentz of the Eagles. Ryan in Atlanta as well as H.Jones.Maybe Elliot in Dallas. All these guys got big money and now they suck! Look what happened when Flacko won the SB in Baltimore. They gave him a huge raise and after that he sucked also. History is a good thing sometimes.

  26. Signing Goff to a long term extension was bad but the Rams really handcuffed themselves when they traded two first round picks for an underachieving CB in Ramsey who currently has no picks and a PFF grade of 64 while the CB they traded away Peters is one of the top CBS in football with a PFF grade of 85. And o ya they didn’t sign Ramsey to an extension before the trade either, he’s currently slated to be a FA at the end of the season. If the Rams hadn’t of traded away all that draft capital they could of worked around Goffs deal but now they have very little cap space and no first round picks to rebuild there roster with over the next few years. Same old sorry Rams.

  27. The massive OL regression the Rams had this year will make any QB look bad. The vast majority of the Rams’ offensive troubles have been that they gambled that Saffold and Sullivan could be replaced and lost. Then Havenstein and Blythe also regressed.

    I’ll get downvoted for this, but Goff isn’t the problem. It’s that without having faith in the line, he’s trying to force things.

  28. The No Call against the Saints in the NFC Championship actually doomed the Rams and NFL football in Los Angeles. It set them up for expectations they could not meet and success they didnt earn. It built and then crushed it with the shutout against New England. They would have been much better off just losing a close game in the NFC Championship. It left then feeling on too of the world but with deep doubts and insecurities due to the call, that forced moves like this dumb contract to prove they were what they werent. Now the whole house of cards is falling down. I wonder if they will end up in Mexico City or London?

  29. Like clockwork, trying to paint Goff as trash and pin all the Rams problems on him. No doubt if he were an, when, different “type” of QB none of this conjecture would exist. Alas I presume the solution is to cut Goff asap and either sign Kap the career backup or trade for sCam “3rd string” Newton this off-season, right?

  30. First off, his O Line has been terrible.

    Second, I can almost guarantee that the minute the season ends we’re going to be reading

    “Turns Out Goff Was Injured” articles. Whether it’s true or not remains to be seen…

    He does seem to wear his injuries as well as Tom Brady minus still being able to deliver the goods of course.

  31. What they are going to regret is the whole “all in for now” philosophy. They have already said they don’t care about building for the future. It’s now or nothing and as we can see it’s nothing. Look at the few teams in the league that are competitive year after year, that is not how they do things, IT DOESN’T WORK.

  32. Goff and Wentz are never gonna be great QBs. They’ve regressed. So has Trubisky, but he’s never gotten a big contract so the Bears are off the hook on that one. Finding a great QB is never easy, but paying one tens of millions before they achieve anything is nuts.

  33. The Rams have buyer’s remorse just like their fans that bought Rams PSLs based on their previous 2 seasons.

  34. Rams, another team in the Super Bowl last year which may not even make the playoffs the next year. (Seahawks, Falcons, Eagles, Chargers, Jags, Broncos, Panthers). A testament to the greatness, consistency & longevity of that organization in New England. Patriots have played in 13 of the last 18 AFC Championship Games. Yankees, Canadians, Celtics and Patriots greatest sports Dynasties of all time.

  35. So tough to win in this league and when you pay so much to just one player it makes it even tougher.

    I can envision the GMs correct this and stop overpaying for talent at one position soon. The 49ers are showing the most important position of the team doesn’t have to be a QB.

    Of course they won’t, however.

  36. Well McVay issued an ultimatum to management and pressured them to sign Goff, I think the solution may be to fire McVay.

    Shades of John Robinson/Jim Everett (along with the salary cap woes).

  37. “show me a qb with a big contract, and i’ll show you a team with no depth”

    eventually we are going to see a good team let a star qb walk after the rookie deal is up.

  38. Anyone who watched the Super Bowl last year could see it wasn’t a good QB having a bad day which does happen. It was a mediocre QB whod couldn’t take advantage of having superior skill players. Like someone drving a Ferrari 50 mph on the highway while their poor wife is in labor beside them and they can’t figure out how to get it out of third gear. Rams were a one hit wonder and probably won’t win the division anytime in the near future.

  39. Gurley I understand getting hurt nature of the job..Goff different story, he’s having a bad year ground game not as good as last year hurts Goff, defense giving up points early changes game plan etc. I think LA will be happy with Goff in years to come. They (Rams) will be more upset over the cost of there stadium.

  40. They should. Jeff Fisher was right. Goff isn’t talented enough to execute McVay’s offense. Period. THe first season, defenses were caught off-guard. Last year he wasn’t nearly as productive, and the Patriots completely shurt that thing down in the Super Bowl.

  41. Probably not.

    It’s easy to be snarky about the year Goff is having. Look at the QBs on the bottom 12 teams in the league. Sure, Goff is no Brady. But it could get a lot worse, just ask the Broncos.

  42. If I’ve learned one thing in my adult life of watching the NFL its this. Most teams that have a good season can not do it year over year. They expect to be able and go out there and do the same thing they did last year with the same results. The one * next to this statement is the New England Patriots who are lead by the greatest coach (Bill) of all time and greatest leader of all time (Tom). Goff will be a slightly above average QB in his career IMO. He won’t be elite though.

  43. Goff has just about everything you’re looking for in a QB. He just needs to quicken his release. Waaaaaaay tooooo deliberate. Get rid of the ball. Goff and Donald are good investments. Goff’s weaknesses are correctable.

  44. I found these stats on an article titled: Does a High Salary Veteran QB Hurt Your Super Bowl Chances

    1 out of the last 12 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks was paid more than 12% of the salary cap (8.3% of QBs).
    8 out of 48 starting quarterbacks in the championship games were paid more than 12% of the salary cap (16.7%).
    17 or 20 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were in their 7th year or less with their team when the won (85%).

  45. How does the Goff mistake happen after seeing the Ravens give Joe Flacco a knee-jerk contract after four games playing over his head in 2012 playoffs? The “Mile High Miracle” being just poor defense on Broncos.

  46. The Rams somehow went from the SB to the worst long term position in the division. Seattle still has Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll along with Jadeveon Clowney and a tremendous young WR group. The 49ers have Kyle Shanahan, Jimmy Garoppolo and a stacked young defense with players like Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Deforest Buckner. The Cardinals have Kyler Murray, Kliff Kingsbury, Kenyan Drake and a ton of capspace.

    The Rams have over half their cap tied up in 6 players and only one is really justifying his salary. No first round picks for the next two years and a QB that has been figured out by NFL defenses. It seems they are destined to be back in the NFC West basement.

  47. I’m not a Rams fan but wheres the loyalty. Players have bad years. Last year (because of a dire offensive line with two rookies and no WR’s) everyone was saying Derek Carr was done. Now this year hes playing well again

    In the past even Joe Montana had the odd bad year. People said Troy Aikman was a bust his rookie year and that Steve Walsh should start

    If Goff is dire next year then maybe think about problems. But one bad year doesnt mean hes doomed

  48. The Rams got absolutely fleeced by Jacksonville on the Ramsey trade. Didn’t they do their homework? He’s a mediocre, immature cornerback who showed up for training camp in a BRINK’S TRUCK. They will not be able to pay him and will have given up two #1’s for 8-9 games of poor play in what looks to be an 8-8, 9-7 season.

    Look at Ramsey’s behavior at the end of the Ravens game the other night and consider his performance. Maybe he should have come to training camp in a dump truck instead.

  49. if you look at wentz’s numbers he is earning his money for the past 3 years, this year he has no weapons and no O line, and it shows. and at game 11 they are 1 game our of the division lead,

  50. The Rams are showing the rest of the league how not to do it. You can’t pay everyone top dollar for several reasons, Gurley is a shadow of his former self, Goff seems to have lost whatever it was that he had, and then, the Rams double down on dumb and gave up 2 first round picks for, an apparent headcase, Ramsey.

  51. Uh…will they?

    Week after week its become more and more clear that they already should.

    Also crazy how Sean McVay has fallen from genius ushering in a new era of coaching to…whatever has happened this year, so fast.

    And with the Goff, Gurley and Donald contracts and no first round picks for a while…yikes.

  52. “The Pats exposed him.”
    ________________

    Really, the Pats exposed Sean McVay. And that’s an interrelated but totally separate topic. The Pats game plan was to knock Goff down and get into his face every play. McVay stood back and watched that happen for the entire game, never moving the pocket, calling a screen pass, or doing anything else you’d expect in terms of adjustments. I don’t think Goff is worth the money they’re paying him but he looked bad in the Super Bowl because any QB in that situation would have looked bad.

  53. They took a shot, they were wrong. At least they tried. Last year they brought all this talent in, I never thought the team would gel. It did, but in the off season they read about themselves to much. They missed their shot.

  54. Why did jump the gun on both of Goff and Gurley’s contracts?

    A clean pocket and elite run game Goff can hit recievers who are college open. But the guy lacks pocket awareness, anticipation throwing and panicks while under pressure. He is young but with a 120 plus million dollar contract you need to be elite now.

    The Rams have an old offensive line with no first round picks for 2 years. Doesn’t look good with a division that is one of the strongest in the NFL.

  55. Everybody is blaming the Eagles receivers for being bad but these are the same receivers that won the Super Bowl. So what is the difference? The Eagles got rid of the Super Bowl winning quarterback and kept MR stand in the pocket and hold the ball waiting for the tightend to get open.

  56. No, they don’t regret it any more than Atlanta is regretting the contract they gave to Matt Ryan. Seattle may regret the contract they gave to the 35 million dollar dude. The Jets are already kicking themselves for paying Le’Veon Bell so much money.

  57. clownofdust says:
    The LOLA Rams. You deserve this, Stan, after what you did to St. Louis . . .
    ==

    St. Louis stole both the Cardinals from Chicago and the Rams from Los Angeles, yet to this day many of their fans and other onlookers whine about how they were done wrong when other cities took those same teams from them.
    I have no respect for Stan Kroenke, or how he runs his team or does business. But St. Louis has no leg to stand on when it comes to playing the victim of pro sports relocation — regardless of the particulars as to why they lost their teams.
    If you take you take up with someone who’s cheating on someone else, you shouldn’t be surprised when they eventually cheat on you too. St.Louis voluntarily got into bed with Kroenke at another city’s’ expense, and is reaping what it sewed.

  58. Is it Goff’s fault the La La LAmbs gave up 45 points? Quarterbacks often get too much credit when the team wins (but not always) and they are sometimes unfairly blamed when their teams lose. The LAmbs offense have deviated from what they did last season, and that was to run and pass. This year they emphasize the passing attack too much, and that can put too much pressure on the OL and the defense. Just look at Kansas City. They have been doing the same thing, emphazizing the pass too much. Even with Patrick Mahomes, they only have a medicre record of 7-4.

  59. The Rams front office should’ve known what they had. If you need to run hurry up offense because the QB needs the coach to tell him everything about the defense before the helmet radio shuts off….you probably don’t guarantee that QB $100 mil.

  60. These contracts are really about the stadium and the city. The truth is there is not much of a Rams fan base in L.A., and that stadium is a $6 billion legacy for Kroenke. So how do you build a fanbase and sell season tickets? Sign star players.

    The problem is they are soon to be in cap hell and without any draft picks to boot, and the new stadium will not be ready before the 2020 season at the earliest. So the perfect storm is brewing: new stadium, failed stars, cap hell, no draft picks, and lousy team.

  61. Is this the new thing now? Every time a player loses a game an article needs to be written on if he should have gotten a new contract? Let’s read one on Aaron Rodgers then.

  62. I’m thankful Trubisky wasn’t eligible for an extension after last year or the Bears probably would have done something dumb like this too. At least we’re one year closer to getting a first round pick

  63. Right now the 2019 NFL salary is cap is about $190 million. You are crazy to sign one play for $30 to $40 million a year.

  64. The reason the Rams lost the Snoopy Bowl is because they changed nothing on offense.

    The reason the Rams are losing now is because that offensive line can’t block Grandma from getting a hold of Goff; and the offensive coordinator has done nothing to adjust the offense to the reality of that offensive line.

  65. Goff has regressed without a doubt. However boy genius McVay hasn’t done much to set him up for success. The O-Line is awful, which means the offense needs to change to quick passing: shorter WR routes and more screens. When the defense starts playing closer, send Cooks and Woods on fade or deep post routes. Gurley isn’t the same, but that’s no excuse for the offense to fail. Stop the finesse plays and lineup with a fullback on any run play less than 5 yards. The defense is good enough to protect leads if given time between series.

  66. Ask yourselves what would BB do? Well first of all he would not have paid any RB anything close to that the Rams paid Todd G. That was a complete waste. Would he have paid Goff? Perhaps….but not until the end of last season and seeing how he played in the SB he certainly would have offered less or let him walk. As for Wentz, BB would have sent him packing and kept Foles.

  67. Goff with a running game and decent Oline play put up top ten numbers and went to a SB. Goff without a running game and bad pass protection is struggling. Focusing on the QB instead of what is affecting the QB is completely missing the point.

  68. vancouversportsbro says:
    November 26, 2019 at 10:16 pm
    Yes. Them and the Eagles both. You don’t just throw money at someone for one decent year. The 49ers are lucky Jimmy G turned out to be decent as well or that would be another bad deal.

    ——————————–

    True but the 9ers have a more team friendly contract that doesnt hamper them till 2023 like Goff’s.

  69. The city of Los Angeles was spoon fed a paper champion with delusions of grandeur by the NFL and it’s crooked officiating. My heart bleeds for them.

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