Vikings have a path, narrow as it may be, to the No. 1 seed

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The Vikings will secure the No. 6 seed, at worst, if the Rams lose to the 49ers on Saturday night. A Rams win over the 49ers, however, would be the first step in a convoluted and complicated chain of the events that could end with the 10-4 Vikings swiping the No. 1 seed from the currently 11-3 49ers, Seahawks, Saints, and Packers.

Thanks to our research specialists at NBC Sports, the road to Miami would go through Minneapolis if the Vikings beat the Packers and the Bears, if the Packers lose to the Lions in Week 17 (which would give Minnesota the division title), if Saints lose to the Panthers in Week 17 (which would give the Vikings the No. 2 seed), if the 49ers lose to the Rams on Saturday, if the Seahawks lose to the Cardinals on Sunday, and if the Seahawks and 49ers tie in Week 17.

That’s almost surely not going to happen; even if the Seahawks and 49ers tie (which they nearly did earlier this year), the Packers losing to the Lions, the Saints losing to the Panthers, and the Seahawks losing to the Cardinals seem far-fetched at best.

There’s another potential path that doesn’t require a Week 17 tie in the 49ers-Seahawks rematch. It’s hinges on the strength of victory tiebreaker, which would potentially apply to a three-way tie at 12-4 among the Vikings, Seahawks, and Saints or the Vikings, 49ers, and Saints. This requires the Packers to lose out, the Saints to lose to the Panthers in Week 17, and the 49ers or Seahawks to lose this weekend and the loser this weekend to win the 49ers-Seahawks rematch next Sunday.

And, yes, the Vikings would be in far better shape to get the No. 1, 2, or 3 seed if they’d won instead of lost at Green Bay (should have won), at Kansas City (should have won), or at Seattle (could have won). This year, perhaps more than ever, one untimely loss has real consequences when it comes to seeding, and as to the Vikings the price for their 4-4 record away from home likely will be having to go 3-0 on the road in January to end a 43-year Super Bowl drought.

38 responses to “Vikings have a path, narrow as it may be, to the No. 1 seed

  1. That’s a lot of different games that have to go a certain way, but the most likely event is that the Vikings beat the Packers on Monday.

  2. People are overlooking that the most likely seed for the Vikings is #5, allowing them to play the terrible NFC East winner that they already beat once.

    I would also love to get the #6 seed if the Packers get the #3 seed. That would be a fun game.

  3. I’m a vikings fan, but man give me a break!!! Theres a better chance of my my ex saying she wants me again than the vikes getting the 1 seed….would love to beat the packers though!

  4. I’m a Vikings fan, but let’s be real: they aren’t going to be the #1 seed, they could (but probably won’t) win the division, and they aren’t going to win the Super Bowl. As much as I hope they do and want them to, that’s not in the cards this year.

  5. I think I would rather have the #5 seed so we can play whoever gets the NFC East lol. Vikes would have to win out and Seahawks lose out. Then again I wouldn’t mind us playing the Packers again in the first round.

  6. The Vikings won week 2. Refs taking away touchdowns for ghost calls won’t happen again in our own stadium. Green Bay can’t beat the Vikings without the refs help.

  7. Spoken like a true homer. Not sure why the Vikings “should have won” at GB or KC. They were down by 14 in the first quarter at GB and never came close to leading in the game and while they kept it close in KC, it’s not like they missed a last second fg or something to lose by 3…they just didn’t get the job done.

    Realistically the Packers “should have won” at Philly (using your rationale) and be in the #1 spot right now.

  8. The #1 seed is a dream, but Lions over Packers and Panthers over Saints in Week 17 for the #2 seed seems sort of possible. Lions would have beat the Packers earlier this year if not for 2 phantom hands to the face penalties and the Panthers took the Saints to the wire a few weeks ago before losing on a FG as time expired.

  9. Then again I wouldn’t mind us playing the Packers again in the first round.
    —–
    I’d think seeing a team they’ve already beaten like Dallas or Philly would be preferable. Why would you want to play one of the 4 teams that’s already proved they can beat you?

  10. 6-3 at the Packers would be nice. Now that the NFL got Rodgers into the playoffs one last time their job is done. I could be wrong but I don’t see the packers having their refs in the playoffs.

  11. Something feels off about the NFC East team. Not sure Id want the pressure of playing them knowing what a failure it would be to lose. Could lose and have normal Viking level of heartbreak vs any other team.

  12. Well, if you saw the Vikings game against GB they were poised to take the lead when Cousins threw an interception. Take the lead after coming back from 21 points down, so yeah they should have won that game. Against KC they had the lead until the final seconds, so yeah they should have won that game too. I do agree that GB faced some bad calls against Philly but GB got favored calls against MN, Dall & Detroit, so they have a valid complaint about one game but there are valid complaints in 3 games that they received favored questionable calls, so much so that the league apologized, at least for the Detroit game. So give GB a plus 1 for the Philly game & take away 3 for the officiating assistance they received, GB is 9 – 5. Add to it how Cousins has outplayed Rodgers this year but Rodgers is on the Pro Bowl & KC is not, ridiculous. I hope KC is mad as HE%$! & stays mad through to a SB win. Skol Vikings!

  13. Brobokil says:
    December 19, 2019 at 5:03 pm

    I think I would rather have the #5 seed so we can play whoever gets the NFC East lol. Vikes would have to win out and Seahawks lose out. Then again I wouldn’t mind us playing the Packers again in the first round.
    __________

    Actually, if the Vikings win their last two and Seattle beats San Francisco, the Vikings get the #5 seed.

  14. pkrlvr says:
    December 19, 2019 at 5:08 pm

    Then again I wouldn’t mind us playing the Packers again in the first round.
    —–
    I’d think seeing a team they’ve already beaten like Dallas or Philly would be preferable. Why would you want to play one of the 4 teams that’s already proved they can beat you?
    ___________

    The Packers proved they can beat the Vikings if Cousins plays the worst game of his career. What are the odds that he does that again? Not good. Besides, the Vikings will have proved they can beat the Packers in that situation. Not that anyone was doubting it.

  15. Wanting to play the nfc east in the playoffs? The Vikings didnt exactly put a beat down on philly and Dallas. Guarantee if the Vikings play either they will lose.

  16. pkrlvr says:
    December 19, 2019 at 5:05 pm
    Spoken like a true homer. Not sure why the Vikings “should have won” at GB or KC. They were down by 14 in the first quarter at GB and never came close to leading in the game
    —————————————————————
    The Vikings had a touchdown incorrectly taken away on a phantom call. The final difference was 5 points. So they literally WOULD have had the lead and won.

  17. Rob Brzezinski is a Magician says:
    December 19, 2019 at 5:51 pm
    Brobokil says:
    December 19, 2019 at 5:03 pm

    I think I would rather have the #5 seed so we can play whoever gets the NFC East lol. Vikes would have to win out and Seahawks lose out. Then again I wouldn’t mind us playing the Packers again in the first round.
    __________

    Actually, if the Vikings win their last two and Seattle beats San Francisco, the Vikings get the #5 seed.
    —————————————–
    What’s the tiebreaker between Vikes and 49ers in this scenario?

  18. Once AGAIN, it’s about the negatives for Florio & the Vikings

    No mention that MN curb stomped BOTH Philly & San Diego
    Two teams that Green Bay LOST to

    MN has had ONE bad loss, at Chicago
    ONE game where MN lost by more than 7
    ONE game where MN lost to a current non-winning team

    Watch out, because if MN beats the almighty Packers Monday night WITHOUT Dalvin Cook, they can go to Dallas/Seattle/Green Bay and win in the playoffs

  19. Well this team could only have one loss all season but they keep shooting them self in the foot! It would be nice to have a home game but will need a lot of help!

  20. It just doesn’t matter if they win a division or not the playoffs matter. This so you’re saying they have a chance story has little value.

  21. vikingfansaredelusional says:
    December 19, 2019 at 5:52 pm

    Wanting to play the nfc east in the playoffs? The Vikings didnt exactly put a beat down on philly and Dallas. Guarantee if the Vikings play either they will lose.
    _________

    Pretty sure they beat Philly 38-20. How did the Packers do against them?

  22. Brobokil says:
    December 19, 2019 at 6:11 pm

    Actually, if the Vikings win their last two and Seattle beats San Francisco, the Vikings get the #5 seed.
    —————————————–
    What’s the tiebreaker between Vikes and 49ers in this scenario?
    __________

    No idea, but somehow it works according to ESPN’s playoff scenario machine.

  23. Once AGAIN, it’s about the negatives for Florio & the Vikings

    No mention that MN curb stomped BOTH Philly & San Diego
    Two teams that Green Bay LOST to

    MN has had ONE bad loss, at Chicago
    ONE game where MN lost by more than 7
    ONE game where MN lost to a current non-winning team

    Watch out, because if MN beats the almighty Packers Monday night WITHOUT Dalvin Cook, they can go to Dallas/Seattle/Green Bay and win in the playoffs

    ______________

    And if you look at the Packers losses, they lost to Philly on a no-call to end the game back when the eagles could’ve been 4-0, they lost to a reignited chargers team on the road with a healthy pass rushing duo for the first time in forever and a new revamped offense, and they got pummeled by the 49ers because they couldn’t get out of their own way in the 1st half and ended up being down big. Plus, it’s obvious Rodgers doesn’t play well on the west coast.

  24. Rob Brzezinski is a Magician says:
    December 19, 2019 at 7:00 pm
    vikingfansaredelusional says:
    December 19, 2019 at 5:52 pm

    Wanting to play the nfc east in the playoffs? The Vikings didnt exactly put a beat down on philly and Dallas. Guarantee if the Vikings play either they will lose.
    _________

    Pretty sure they beat Philly 38-20. How did the Packers do against them?
    /////////////////

    Pretty sure they were a throw/catch from winning. My point is if the Vikings play philly it will be in philly, in the elements and cousins in primetime. 2 things not in their favor

  25. As a Vikings fan, I’m rooting for the following scenario(a bit more realistic than #1 seed)

    Take the 5 seed from SF, and travel to DAL/PHI for WC round.

    Travel to GB(2 seed) for Div round and take care of business in GB.

    SF beats NO and SEA as the 6 seed and SF has to travel to USBANK Stadium for the Conf Championship.

    SKOL!

  26. There’s a whole lotta wishing, hoping, and praying from Viking fans going on! At least they’re used to it!

  27. Not really preoccupied with the Vikings like their fans are with beating the Packers.

    If you take care of business earlier in the year, you don’t need to play your superbowl Monday night.

    It’s not like the Packers are world beaters this year and they still control the destiny of this division.

  28. kcarpenter says

    And if you look at the Packers losses, they lost to Philly on a no-call to end the game back when the eagles could’ve been 4-0…
    ###

    Except the Eagles were 1 – 2 after losing to Detroit and Atlanta. They came out of the Packer game 2 – 2.

    The end of the game was a Carson Wentz kneel down after an Aaron Rodgers interception.

    “they lost to a reignited chargers team on the road with a healthy pass rushing duo for the first time in forever and a new revamped offense”

    The Packers were never even in this game. They didn’t score their first points until the game was already decided – final score 26 – 11. The Vikings played the exact same offense and defense and won 39 – 10.

    “and they got pummeled by the 49ers because they couldn’t get out of their own way in the 1st half and ended up being down big”

    So you’re telling me that the Packers can’t overcome a 23 point deficit at the end of the first half. Good teams can (and did) that.

    “Plus, it’s obvious Rodgers doesn’t play well on the west coast.”

    You need to add “anymore” to your sentence above.

    Rodgers was undefeated in against the Chargers prior to this season in CA.

    Rodgers has no history against the Rams in LA.

    Rodgers is undefeated in Oakland.

    Rodgers has won in SF in 2015 when Kaepenick sucked, but prior to that he lost twice to Kaepernick when the 49ers made their SB run.

    Rodgers didn’t win in Seattle last year, but failed to win any important games in 2018. In previous games he is also winless when competing against a better QB, Russell Wilson.

    Bottom line, Rodgers can win on the west coast just fine, as long as he doesn’t have to play a very talented team/QB.

  29. Honestly at this point, if the Rams lose on Saturday, Vikes lose on Monday, then they rest their starters in week 17. Play @ GreenBay in the Wildcard.

    I just don’t see Green Bay losing to Detroit in Week 17.

  30. I was with you all the way until you said Seahawks and 9ers tie week 17. That’s when it got ridiculous.

  31. You need to add “anymore” to your sentence above.

    Rodgers was undefeated in against the Chargers prior to this season in CA.

    Rodgers has no history against the Rams in LA.

    Rodgers is undefeated in Oakland.

    Rodgers has won in SF in 2015 when Kaepenick sucked, but prior to that he lost twice to Kaepernick when the 49ers made their SB run.

    Rodgers didn’t win in Seattle last year, but failed to win any important games in 2018. In previous games he is also winless when competing against a better QB, Russell Wilson.

    Bottom line, Rodgers can win on the west coast just fine, as long as he doesn’t have to play a very talented team/QB.

    _____________

    He was 1-0 in SD, 1-0 in Oakland, 0-4 in Seattle, 1-2 in candlestick. That’s a combined record of 3-6. And he didn’t play well in most of the wins. So, yeah, my argument rests.

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