NFL expects huge cash influx from next wave of TV deals, if they’re done soon

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Some are agreeing to disagree on whether waiting a year to finalize a new CBA will shrink the potentially gigantic return the NFL will realize under its next wave of TV contract. Setting that question aside, here’s the reality: The NFL currently expects a huge cash influx from the next wave of TV deals, if those deals can be done in the immediate future.

Although everything remains tentative because official negotiations have yet to begin, the addition of a 17th game plus the ongoing ability of the NFL to attract and to hold enormous audiences together is expected to generate at least an extra $100 million. Per team. Per year.

That’s $3.2 billion in total dollars. And with the players getting 48.5 percent of that amount (surely, there are some joint expenses the league will be able to take off the top, but not nearly as many as in the past — more on that issue in a later post), that’s an extra $1.552 billion for the players. And with 55 players per roster under a 17-game scenario, that’s more than $880,000 extra. Per player. Per year.

That money won’t all become cash payments, and given the variation between player ability and position some players will suck up more than others. But that’s the minimum that the league reasonably expects to realize under TV deals done sooner. Whether that same money is there for deals done later is a risk the NFL doesn’t want to take. The only question at this point is whether the NFL Players Association will choose to do so.

18 responses to “NFL expects huge cash influx from next wave of TV deals, if they’re done soon

  1. Hard to believe that the majority of players will vote against the instant cash they get with the new CBA. Understand why the top end are against it, given that the calculation you outline here, $880,000 per player is Chump change for the highest paid players and those at end of careers. Still; it should pass and the NFL will prosper for the next decade.

  2. See? This is the leverage I am talking about here.

    This is why they have been rushing the deal through. All the money they want is in the tv deals.

    The union has the leverage. Period.

  3. The players should get 50% (minus shared expenses like stadium costs) because of the injuries they sustain. And the NFL is trying to slip in some other provisions the players should reject.

  4. As NFLPA President I’d make one phone to Vince McMahon and find out what it would take to have him do the negotiating for the players.

  5. The revenue stream will also include huge increases gambling and income from events like the draft and combine. Any of this figured into the % the players will get? That extra playoff game – they getting paid peanuts for that as well?
    Straight power play by the owners. Players should be willing to sit out a year, go on the road for a few events, both to make a bit of cash and counteract the propaganda the owners will be shoveling out as fast as they can.
    Players are the only reason I watch the game, don’t care what Jerry or Kraft do are say. Yeah some players are jerks – Antonio Brown types. But they’re the ones leaving it on the field. They deserve to be well paid.

  6. Never understood why the NFL doesn’t just add a 2nd bye week to extend the season – good for players’ late-season health and there’d still be a mix of games for us to watch every week and for them to generate TV revenue from.

  7. players are getting more then they deserve. its dumb to think they have leverage. owners are billionaires without the nfl, 99% of players are working entry level jobs without the nfl. hmmm, wonder which group can afford to play hardball?

  8. @ stexan The real fact is we watch for the “GAME” and it doesn’t matter who’s playing, when Peyton retired I don’t know one person that quit watching, when Luck retired there wasn’t one fan that quit watching because those players retired so its the “GAME” that we watch and are so interested in, not the player(s)! But the thing is with this new era of players they’re so worried about money and then too many only giving a half-asses effort and it shows, plus all the diva’s, all of the celebrating after every play, all the bad calls, the time it takes to review the call and they still get most of them wrong and the time it takes to play the game people like myself are losing interest F-A-S-T.

    Sure the viewership numbers are up for the last few years but the fact is there’re still no where close to the record numbers of over 10yrs ago, as a matter of fact the numbers are still down over 1.5mil viewers per game from they were in 2008-10. And have you noticed all of the empty seats at a whole lot of stadiums, some teams are lucky to get 20K fans per game. I think the game has peaked and is going down for the overall numbers, attendance + viewers. I really believe the NFL will be hard pressed to get anywhere close to what they’re thinking they will because of those numbers and the fact that there very well could be a work stoppage coming soon and these networks WILL be taking all of that into consideration in their bids. I’ve already dropped down a tier on my satellite provider to save $80/mo and the only real channel I lost was the NFL Network and guess what, I don’t even miss it one bit and I’m not coming back, also if they get a big new contract the next thing I’ll drop will be my local channels because those are the channels 90% of games are on and they’ll jack the prices way too much and I’M NOT PAYING IT, PERIOD!

    The game has become to hard to watch for all the reasons I mentioned earlier plus the fact that it takes almost 4hr to watch a game where there’s only 10min of actual playing time = NO THANKS!

    BTW there aren’t going to be huge increases in gambling revenue because people have been betting on football for decades and just because its legal now doesn’t mean they’ll be a new influx of bettors and those that have been betting are just going to continue with the same people they bet with before, you know why? Because no one gets a cut, its a bet between two people, if you bet with one of those legal places the NFL gets a cut, Uncle Sam gets a cut, your state gets a cut = why would anyone want to switch to that? The real fact is they won’t!

  9. Pretty simple, over 60% of players make the minimum salary. The owners just put a “press this for a $90k raise” button in front of them. I imagine it’s going to pass.

  10. The revenue stream will also include huge increases gambling and income from events like the draft and combine. Any of this figured into the % the players will get? That extra playoff game – they getting paid peanuts for that as well?
    Straight power play by the owners. Players are the only reason I watch the game, don’t care what Jerry or Kraft do are say. But they’re the ones leaving it on the field. They deserve to be well paid.

    —————
    Very well said! Thank you for being a voice of reason.

  11. Yeah some players are jerks. But it seems for the most part, players want to be team players and do well for their team. Sadly the bad apples have to ruin it.

  12. There may already be a bump in the road. Look at the stock market and the impact the Coronavirus is having. I’m surprised there’s not a hint this could affect the $$ spent by the networks or streaming services. Their stocks are plummeting.

  13. The TV deals have been the worst thing for the league. Because they are distributed through equal revenue sharing, all the bad owners know they can put terrible products on the field and still reap huge profits.

    There are at least a dozen owners that make know effort to put a winning team on the field, and just scam the fans laughing all the way to the bank with their huge TV checks.

    If the took half that money and split it into 256 shares for each regular season game that went to the winner that would change the landscape immediately. Every owner would do their best to put a winner on the field. It would never happen but that’s the solution to terrible ownership

  14. “The union has the leverage. Period.”

    No, they don’t. That money isn’t going to disappear. Maybe it goes from 100 million per to 80, but there will be a big increase in the money each teams receive no matter what. If the players don’t take this deal and the owners lose that money, do you think the owners will suddenly cave? lol. The players will be locked out next year and be forced to take a much worse deal.

    The players don’t have leverage because they aren’t willing to shut down the sport. They aren’t willing to strike as long as is necessary to get the changes they would really want. So if the owners offer more money and some concessions on fringe issues, they should take it, because there won’t be a better offer. Anything after this is going to be worse.

  15. I’m thankful for not having contributed any of my hard earned money to the NFL “pie” the last 10 years.

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