Tom Brady‘s arm will remain as strong as it is for many years to come. As one expert in NFL offenses (who currently is an NFL head coach) explained it to PFT several years ago, Brady’s legs are the things to watch.
Once he can’t slide and hop and step away from pressure, he’ll get hit. The more he gets hit, the more likely he’ll get hurt.
As explained by Mike Reiss of ESPN.com, the chances of Brady getting hit will increase in Bruce Arians’ offense.
It’s the emphasis on getting the ball down the field that causes plays to take longer to develop, forces offensive linemen to hold their blocks longer, and puts the quarterback in greater danger of getting banged around. Per Reiss, Arians offenses from 2007 through 2019 (he didn’t coach in 2018) resulted in 508 sacks. During that same period of time, with Brady missing almost all of 2008 with a torn ACL, he was sacked only 318 times.
Brady, in recent years, has seemed to be more careful about avoiding hits. But that causes him, at times, to chuck and duck and, as a result, throw the ball less effectively. He may be doing that more in 2020, which perhaps will create the impression that he’s lost some of his accuracy. The more likely truth will be that he’s choosing to unload the ball quickly in order to avoid taking a hit from someone half his age.
This may cause Brady to get rid of the ball faster, possibly before his receivers have a chance to get open down the field. And that could create the impression that Brady isn’t getting it done in Tampa, giving the ultra-candid Arians a dilemma. Does he continues to call it like it is (admitting that Brady is getting rid of the ball too quickly to preserve his body), or does Arians come up with some other explanation as to why things aren’t working the way he wants them to?