Tom Brady’s passing yardage over/under set at 4,099.5

AP

Tom Brady will throw for right around the same passing yards this year in Tampa Bay as he threw for last year in New England, at least if the betting odds are in the right range.

The odds at Caesars Sportsbook have Brady’s passing yards over/under at 4,099.5, and he’s at equal -110 odds to go over or under.

Last season in New England, Brady finished with 4,057 passing yards. That was his fewest in a 16-game season since 2010.

The Vegas over/under for Brady is significantly less than the yardage Jameis Winston gained in Tampa Bay last year. Winston passed for 5,109 passing yards last season. But the Buccaneers hope that Brady won’t throw as many interceptions as Winston, meaning they won’t have to throw when they’re trailing as much as they did last year.

28 responses to “Tom Brady’s passing yardage over/under set at 4,099.5

  1. Both had similar atts & comps, but Jameis threw 30 ints, Brady 8. And as for Brady’s yards being his lowest for 16yrs, it was still 7th in the NFL and great when his only quality WR for most of the year, Edelman, played hurt most of it. What Brady’s doing north of 40 is amazing and unprecedented. Father Time may still be undefeated but he is getting just a little nervous.

  2. It would have been more fun to place a bet on whether Brady or Brees passes for more yards…or better yet, combined yardage by Brady and Brees

  3. He’s gone from having one reliable receiver to a bountiful harvest, and the first dual tight end threats he’s had in a decade. And with no serious running back, Brady even at his age is still accurate and he’s going to light up the skies. Arians is not a run-first mind like New England’s offense, so this might be the easiest “over” bet of all time as long as Brady stays upright. Approaching or surpassing Winston’s yardage numbers wouldn’t be a shock.

  4. 1. Take the under. Nothing to do with Brady. The season seems like it will be shortened and even if it’s not, the usual prep work will be considerably less than usual.
    2. Since 2016 Tom Brady has thrown under 30 picks…. COMBINED.

  5. He’ll probably tear it up, but he’s 43 before the season starts. Imagine that- signing a 43 year old quarterback to a multi year deal…. crazy times.

  6. If I take the under, and there are no games played this season, hence 0 passing yards, will Vegas duck paying out?

    For the record, in the unlikely event there are 16 games played this season with Brady under center for the Bucs, the over will be a winner.

  7. For any of the season long bets, it is contingent on 16 games being played. If the season does get played in full, this prop leads me to downgrade all of the Bucs offensive players in fantasy. They are being ranked as if the passing yardage will be close to what it was last year. Vegas may be wrong on 4100 yards, but very rarely are they off by much. Brady won’t be going above 4500.

  8. What if the season doesn’t happen, or if it’s a rushed and shortened season. Brady can ill afford to lose time.

  9. Take the under. 43 year old QBs don’t make it through a full season as a starter.

  10. Brady is showing up to random people’s houses with duffel bags in each hand ready to work while Big Ben is holding a Big Mac in each hand.

    I’ll take the over.

  11. “… while Big Ben is holding a Big Mac in each hand.”
    ****************************************************

    Awesome imagery — thank you.

    Although I’m left to wonder: where are the milkshake & jumbo order of fries?

  12. atthemurph says:
    May 2, 2020 at 9:28 am
    Take the under. 43 year old QBs don’t make it through a full season as a starter.

    “Take the under for that slow fat guy to hit more than 40 home runs. What kinda name is Babe Ruth anyway?”

  13. Definitely take the over. Passing yards these days has less to do with how ‘good’ you are then it is an indicator of overall offensive strength. Talented QB and WRs = more pass attempts per game. Expect Brady around 4,200-4,300 yards this year.

  14. jeez i get it , he’s the greatest football player of all time, but the man is 42? 43? doesn’t seem realistic. but then again everything he does exceeds all expectation.

  15. rtrudelluwm says:
    May 2, 2020 at 12:54 pm
    Definitely take the over. Passing yards these days has less to do with how ‘good’ you are then it is an indicator of overall offensive strength. Talented QB and WRs = more pass attempts per game. Expect Brady around 4,200-4,300 yards this year.

    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________

    More pass attempts a game? it might shock you to know that the average team threw the ball 34.9 times a game last year, 35 years ago in 1984 (Dan Marino’s big year) the average team threwe 32 passes a game, that’s less than a 10% difference. Old narratives die hard it seems, If anything teams throw shorter, safer passes today which also leads to QB’s getting hit less frequently.

    I’ll take the over for Brady.

  16. The under.

    He no longer has six games against garbage teams.

    Oh and do all the no calls go with Brady or stay with the pats?

    No matter what you think of the NFC south they are not even close to that cake walk Brady has always had.

  17. So many factors. I can’t even count that high.
    Put me down for ten bucks on one outcome or the other.

  18. No matter what you think of the NFC south they are not even close to that cake walk Brady has always had.
    —————-
    Yet , his win loss percentage is virtually the same against the rest of the league as the AFC East.

  19. 16 game season? Over without a doubt. He has never had this much ball catching talent around him. In 2010 Moss was on the way out and Gronk was a rookie.

  20. Yet , his win loss percentage is virtually the same against the rest of the league as the AFC East. The patriots winning percentage ! not tom brady people keep talking like he won all the games and titles by himself lol it take the whole organization top to bottom.

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