Bettors don’t think Lamar Jackson will be running as much this year

Posted by Mike Florio on May 3, 2020, 10:20 AM EDT
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Last year, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson rushed for 1,206 yards. This year, the betting public thinks he’ll generate a lot fewer rushing yards than that.

Via David Payne Purdum of ESPN.com, the initial over/under at Caesars of 999.5 already has dropped to 949.5. This means that the early money placed on the prop has tilted heavily enough toward the under to force the line down by 50 yards, in order to entice equal betting on the over.

It’s unclear why anyone would think Jackson suddenly would run less than he has. The addition of former Ohio State running back J.K. Dobbins could be a factor, but that would tend to limit veteran running back Mark Ingram more than Jackson.

Jackson gains yards both on designed runs and when things break down and the game becomes schoolyard football. This year, with limited opportunities to prepare for the season due to the absence of offseason programs, there could be more breakdowns and, in turn, more opportunities for Jackson to run circles around defenders who simply can’t catch him.

Thus, at 949.5, I’d take the over. Which is why the number has dropped. It will be interesting to see whether it rebounds as more bets are placed.

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10 responses to “Bettors don’t think Lamar Jackson will be running as much this year”

  2. Lamar Jackson is a good pocket QB who just happens to be an outstanding runner. There have been other super athletic pocket QBs like Steve Young, but as they gain knowledge and experience, they tend to throw more and run less. Jackson was just thrown in very early, and has been able to win during his learning stages. Jackson, like Steve Young, will always have his elite running ability, but his passing game is developing nicely. Jackson and the Ravens aren’t stupid. They’re not trying to re-invent football. They just have a player with unique skills, but do expect much less running going forward.

  4. Mahomes, Jackson, Allen etc. – unfortunately they are all one hit away from being ordinary. It’s a harsh reality of the game. It may never happen or it can come at anytime. Mahomes dodged one bullet already. I disagree with your assessment that Jackson is a good pocket QB. A lot of balls he has thrown are suspect and don’t have enough zip on them. He had a lot of Eli magic working for him last year and they were not picked. time will tell but if Jackson and Mahomes want to remain relevant and stand the test of time they need to further improve their pocket presence. Neither of them will be enshrined in Canton based on what they have done so far but they are both quite capable of getting there if they continue to hone their skill and ability.

  5. People who bet money on something like that have serious gambling issues.

  6. I used to think like a lot of others that mobile quarterbacks can’t last long in the league, but I have changed my mind.

    Don’t get me wrong, guys like Cam Newton, that think they are invincible, won’t have long careers. But smart quarterbacks…the ones that know when to run and when to give themselves up, should do fine.

    If you look at the hits that Mahomes and Jackson take when they run, you’ll see that those hits are relatively minor. Compare that to getting crushed while in the pocket.

    Randall Cunningham was one of the first QBs that ran a lot. He had a long career. I think that if a QB is smart and knows when to go out of bounds or give himself up, he will be fine.

  9. I’m still not sold on the guy. Teams and players get exposed in the playoffs and I think he was exposed by the Titans last year. They packed the middle of the field, forced him to throw outside the numbers and he struggled. Maybe he’ll improve, but he has average arm strength and he’s not all that accurate and those are really hard to fix, if they can be at all. These were some of the legit reasons why he was not drafted higher than he was. The Ravens appear to have a stacked roster and appear to have had a very good draft. Maybe that gets them to the promised land, but if he has to carry them there, I wouldn’t bet money on it.

  10. The Ravens high school won’t work without Lamar’s running threat. It’s that simple. First the Ravens offensive looked better in pass blocking than it really was because of Lamar’s threat as a runner.

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