Last year, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson rushed for 1,206 yards. This year, the betting public thinks he’ll generate a lot fewer rushing yards than that.
Via David Payne Purdum of ESPN.com, the initial over/under at Caesars of 999.5 already has dropped to 949.5. This means that the early money placed on the prop has tilted heavily enough toward the under to force the line down by 50 yards, in order to entice equal betting on the over.
It’s unclear why anyone would think Jackson suddenly would run less than he has. The addition of former Ohio State running back J.K. Dobbins could be a factor, but that would tend to limit veteran running back Mark Ingram more than Jackson.
Jackson gains yards both on designed runs and when things break down and the game becomes schoolyard football. This year, with limited opportunities to prepare for the season due to the absence of offseason programs, there could be more breakdowns and, in turn, more opportunities for Jackson to run circles around defenders who simply can’t catch him.
Thus, at 949.5, I’d take the over. Which is why the number has dropped. It will be interesting to see whether it rebounds as more bets are placed.