Half of the 2017 draft Top 10 picks had their fifth-year options declined

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The Top 10 of the 2017 NFL draft had some notable misses.

That’s why half of the Top 10 picks had their fifth-year options declined. Generally speaking, a player who has performed up to expectations will have his fifth-year option picked up, while a player who has fallen short will have his option declined. And by that measure, half of the Top 10 fell short.

Second overall pick Mitch Trubisky, third overall pick Solomon Thomas, fourth overall pick Leonard Fournette, fifth overall pick Corey Davis and ninth overall pick John Ross all had their options declined. First overall pick Myles Garrett, sixth overall pick Jamal Adams, seventh overall pick Mike Williams and 10th overall pick Patrick Mahomes all had their options picked up. Eighth overall pick Christian McCaffrey got a contract extension before the fifth-year option deadline.

Top 10 picks have more expensive fifth-year options than picks 11-32. The fifth-year salary for Top 10 picks is equal to the average of the 10 highest salaries at that player’s position, whereas for players 11-32, the fifth-year option is the average of the third through 25th highest salaries at the position. For example, Mahomes’ fifth-year option is $24.8 million, while 12th overall pick Deshaun Watson‘s fifth-year option is $17.5 million. That means Top 10 picks have to really produce for their options to be worth it.

Looming over the 2017 draft Top 10 is Mahomes, who through three years already has both a regular season MVP and a Super Bowl MVP to his credit. If they’re being honest, all nine teams that passed on Mahomes would say they regret it. But the five teams who passed on Mahomes just to draft a player whose option wasn’t picked up are the ones really kicking themselves.

46 responses to “Half of the 2017 draft Top 10 picks had their fifth-year options declined

  1. …that’s why fans who get in a up roar about thinking certain players get drafted higher in the draft then they think they should, just dont know. The draft is pretty much a crapshoot. See Eagles and Packers in this years draft as a perfect example.

  2. Predicting success in the draft is a lot easier a few years down the line. Unfortunately my time machine is in the shop or I’d go back and fix things.

  3. As a Brown’s fan, since we came back in 99′, our team limited success shows every year lack of draft certainty. With exception to a hand full of players Like Joe Thomas and Myles Garrett, we have been cheated out of the experience of seeing our first round draft picks playing on the field. Not bad mouthing the organization, but I speak the truth. It’s tough to be a fan, but we grit it out with the team. Still holding reserve with Mayfield and Ward. Stay healthy and God Bless.

  4. Teams that consistently draft in the top 10 and miss need to look in the mirror. Sometimes it’s the player. But, the talent is there for these players. The entire league sees it. Teams are responsible for unlocking and training that talent.

    Teams that miss on obviously talented players again and again are like boyfriends who keep getting dumped. Sometimes the problem isn’t with the other. Sometimes it’s your own damn fault.

  5. No player is a finished product it’s up to the coaching to bring out the most in the player and it’s up to the player to accept that coaching to unlock his full potential.

  6. The Bears don’t even know when they draft a good player. They drafted Brian Urlacher as a safety, started training camp with him at safety. They had to move him to linebacker because they realized he wasn’t a good safety. Turned out he was a pretty good linebacker, but he ck if the Bears knew that.

  7. And still, only the Bears get blasted for their pick of Trubisky. The Browns, 49rs, Jaguars, Titans, Chargers, and Bengals all get a pass for not seeing the “obvious” potential in Mahomes and Watson. Even the Jets with the safe pick of Adams got a pro bowl safety who has taken them nowhere in the past 3 seasons and now is in a contract dispute.

    And the Browns passed on Watson TWICE.

  8. ……
    collectordude says:
    May 3, 2020 at 8:53 am
    Shows what a crapshoot picking in the top ten can be
    Unless you are the Bears, in which case disaster is better description. Selection of first round picks in last 10 years
    Trubisky, Floyd, White, McClellin, Carimi, Williams

  9. Studies have shown that teams draft records are almost identical. No one really drafts that much better than their rivals. The key variable is simply number of draft picks. They best teams have the most picks. It is no more complicated than that.

  10. But the salty mountain of hate will ALL tell you the Belichick is really the worst drafter and would also be the worst on this list if he had a bad enough season to have had a top 10 pick!

    In case you’re wondering – Richard Seymour (6), Jerod Mayo (10), Ty Warren (13) and Nate Solder (17) are the only top-20 Pats picks he’s EVER had. Then there’s Vince Wilfork (21)…

  11. ajandrew2020 says:
    May 3, 2020 at 9:58 am
    As a Brown’s fan, since we came back in 99′, our team limited success shows every year lack of draft certainty. With exception to a hand full of players Like Joe Thomas and Myles Garrett, we have been cheated out of the experience of seeing our first round draft picks playing on the field.

    You are right. Cleveland has always faced injuries of good picks, or busts, and some bad luck. I think they are finally getting on track? If Mayfield can get it together, they could be good now.

  12. The reality is that if the Bears had drafted Mahomes they would of screwed him up anyway, so it doesn’t really matter.

  13. Another example of why people make way too much out of picking in the top 10, and people like Bill Belichick have made a career out of moving out of the first round, and picking later. You end up with guys with chips on their shoulders, because some of those guys thought they should have been first round picks, and they wanna work their butts off to show people they were wrong for not picking them.

  14. It is less a crapshoot for top 10 picks but rather crap organizations picking. There are so many teams that regularly pick in the top 10. They have that huge advantage and yet their crap selections assure them of continuing to get top 10 picks. Bears are a classic case. While no one could have predicted how good Mahomes actually turned out a large part of his success is because of where he went, not just where he was picked. For the Bears to spend all the draft capital they did to move up one pick for Trubisky shows they are clueless. No one could have foreseen he would be as lousy as he was but what exactly did he exhibit in college in 10-12 games that made the Bears see him as a generational talent? Because for it to be worth giving up what they did to move up 1 slot he had to be seen by them as a generational talent, other wise just sit tight and if you miss him go to plan B.

  15. You can argue that Mike Williams should’ve made it 6 without their options picked up

  16. I think Chicago gets all of the heat because they traded up to get him and obviously could have had Mahomes or Watson

    In fact had the Bears not traded, they could have had Mahomes at 3, Alvin Kamara at 67, and George Kittle at 110.
    My Titans could have had Mahomes or Watson too but Mariota was actually good in 2016, his second season. But yeah, they made a bad pick at 5 with Davis

  17. not sure i understand why not pick up trubisky’s contract? Its only guaranteed for injury, and QBs can’t be touched. you can always cut him after year 4 anyway.

  18. Redrafting the top 10
    Brows, Mahomes
    Bears, Watson
    Niners, Garret
    Jags, Watt
    Titans, Adams
    Chargers, White
    Panthers, McCaffrey
    Bengals, Lattimore
    Bills, Ramczyk
    Cook, Kamara, Golladay JuJu and Godwin just missed my list

  19. It just goes to show you that just because you are in the top ten doesn’t mean you are going to have the same success in the pro’s it is probably more relevant that you wont be a major impact player to your new team

  20. Though the Bills (Doug Whaley:( ) screwed up trading the pick to the Chiefs where they picked Mahomes, at least the did get a pro bowl cornerback with their pick, Trey White!

  21. lol this was the draft Goodell stole the pick from the Pats in Framegate II.

    Worked out well, as this was a weak draft anyway.

  22. The draft may be a crapshoot however draft busts are compounded by a bunch of lousy GM’s and scouts who pick a combine workout warrior,overlook lack of playing time in college and ignore injury history.

  23. To the first commenter:

    Eagles and packers didn’t need quarterbacks. The stupidity of their picks has nothing to do with the potential of the player they picked, it has to do with using a high value asset such as a first round pick on a position they were already set at. The whole “the draft is a crapshoot” narrative doesn’t fit with the picks made by the eagles and packers. There is zero logic to their picks. Let’s say hurts and love turn out good. Guess what? That means they’ll be pushing out already proven veterans. Net effect: zero! You lose a good player and gain a good player at the same position. Zero sum game. They wasted the picks. Especially the packers. I get it a little with hurts since wentz is always hurt and they could do taysom hill stuff with hurts. But the love pick will go down as an all time idiotic move. The entire point of an nfl team is to get a franchise quarterback and build around him, and the packers have it already. Now they are pushing Rodgers out with this pick even after signing him to a contract.

  24. Brownsince64

    Because he isn’t good and has no upside. He will be a backup for life at the most

  25. This is evidence that players are NOT worth what they think or how much the NFLPA thinks.
    The media should be forced to re-publish their assessments of each of these players, and then apologize for being stupid.

  26. It has been shown that half of the 1st round players are either busts or just can’t meet expectations. Success in college doesn’t mean success in the NFL. But the coaches and the teams that the players go to may or probably aren’t able to develop or utilize players. The teams picking in the top 10 are picking that high for a reason.

  27. What makes people so sure Mahomes or Watson would have worked in dysfunctional Cleveland?

  28. In a mediocre 10 year MLB career (42-39 5.47), Patrick Mahomes father made a TOTAL of $2,658,000. His son will be paid $24.8 for this year alone and likely $30 million per year for the forseeable future.

    A 10 year career could return $280 million vs his Dad’s $ 2.658 million.

  29. The Chiefs were a good team without Mahomes. The Texans were ok before Watson. Adding Mahomes pushed KC over the top and the fortune of him winding up on a team with coaches and skill players that he could benefit from was a bonus. He was a Texas Tech QB. How many of those guys put up incredible numbers and poofed out in the NFL. Hesitance to draft him was warranted due to the school’s track record. So far the Texans are still where they were before Watson. They’re good enough for a playoff appearance but so far, that’s it. Every other team that drafted before them either were lousy or had a GM that made a poor choice by moving up. Let’s not pretend that the Bears churn out great QBs. Trubisky could wind up in a place that knows how to use him, much like the Tennessee rebirth of Tannehill. It’s easy to look back and say someone was dumb with a pick without looking at the circumstances of that franchise.

  30. If you think Mahomes is signing for $30,000,000 a year going forward you ain’t been paying much attention. Dak (how do you spell a little better than average) Prescott has reportedly turned down $35,000,000 a year. After an 8-8 record in the worst division in football.

  31. This is why its fun to read those redraft articles. Its always amusing seeing what the difference is that hindsight brings.

  32. superfanentertainment says:
    May 3, 2020 at 12:47 pm

    None more notable than MITCHELL TURDBUSTKY.


    Somewhere there is someone who thinks that is funny and creative.

  33. Every year there are stories about how the top half of the draft from 3-5 years ago didn’t perform that well. It’s hardly surprising because teams are picking in the top half because they stunk the season before, and for many of those teams the stink is long-lasting because they are poor organizations. So, it’s not so much that the players picked early are over-rated, it’s that they go to teams where they are practically doomed to fail.

  34. Always my point. We get all excited about “big classes”. Maybe we should wait until people play on the field? Two years ago it was Mayfield, Rosen Darnold, etc etc. I think only one succeeded (for today) and if one can get a team around him, maybe two. But “this was the best class since 1983.”

    No it wasn’t. And the reason we call 1983 good is because they played on the field. At the NFL level. Just remember….Manziel won a Heismann. So did Tebow. Time we start recognizing college success is NOT the same thing.

  35. Remember the days when 1-10 draft picks extorted their new teams with huge salaries only to be out of football by the fifth year? I love the new system. Those who perform get the fifth year plus bump. Those imposters who fail to do jack while cashing four years of paychecks can always look back on video of them doing the same while they have no more paychecks to cash.

  36. Mahomes was a surprise for the NFL. To me, he fell to that one team who would have gotten this talent out of Mahomes. Put him on any of the other teams picking in the top ten and watch him become a bust. The Chiefs had the right QB in the room to help Mahomes develop further (Alex Smith). I don’t begrudge the Bears for passing on Mahomes. But there is absolutely no excuse for picking Trubisky over the guy who had just beaten Alabama for the championship and who had demonstrated extraordinary leadership in his time at Clemson in Deshaun Watson.

  37. Its two things….the money it takes to sign them and the potential comp pick if they leave.

  38. Hindsight is 50/50.

    Bears were a dumpster fire prior to Mitch’s arrival. He also say behind Mike Glennon and John Fox’s run first offense.

    It’s time to shine Mitch!

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