Since the NFL changed its kickoff rules two years ago and made recovering an onside kick more difficult, no team has won a game when it needed to recover an onside kick.
According to Michael Lopez, director of data and analytics for the NFL, teams are 0-104 in the last two years in games when they attempted an expected onside kick.
That’s largely because teams only attempt expected onside kicks when they’re losing late in the game, and teams are usually going to lose when they’re in desperation mode and need an onside kick. (This deals only with expected onside kicks when teams are trailing late, not surprise onside kicks that can happen at any point in the game.)
But this points to why the onside kick alternative has been gaining steam: Comebacks are exciting, and onside kicks are some of the most important plays in comeback victories. Since the NFL changed the kickoff rules, no team has successfully employed an onside kick to fuel a comeback victory.