The problems with the Patrick Mahomes contract

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It’s difficult for me to criticize the Patrick Mahomes contract, because the criticism of the contract is not and should not be regarded as criticism of Patrick Mahomes. Ultimately, he has the right to sign whatever contract he wants to sign. Two years, five years, 10 years, 12 years, 20 years.

But the problem is that Mahomes is the best player currently in the NFL, with the arrow pointing straight up. He potentially could become the best player in league history, at any position. His skills and abilities deserve if not command a contract that reflects his unique talents and blindingly bright future. The contract he has signed does not.

That’s stuff that’s handled with other people,” Mahomes said earlier this year regarding his second contract with the Chiefs. “Obviously, I want to be in Kansas City a long time. I want to win a lot of football games.”

He’ll now be in Kansas City for a long time, if the Chiefs want him to be in Kansas City for a long time. He has committed to the team for a dozen years, but the team hasn’t committed to him for a dozen years. If/when his skills and abilities ever get to the point at which they don’t justify the money he’s due to make, Mahomes will be in jeopardy.

What’s that? Coach Andy Reid wouldn’t do that to Mahomes? G.M. Brett Veach, the man who discovered Mahomes, wouldn’t do that? Chances are Reid will retire in the next 12 years. Veach could be gone by 2031, too. Others quite possibly will be making the decisions about Mahomes at some point in the next 12 years. (Then again, between finding Mahomes and getting him signed to a 12-year deal, Veach may have qualified for lifetime employment in Kansas City, and beyond.)

The point is that a lot can happen in 12 years. One thing that can’t happen in 12 years is that Mahomes can’t make himself into a free agent. He’ll only become a free agent if the Chiefs cut him in order to avoid the fancy-sounding “guarantee mechanisms” that basically are a series of large annual roster bonuses.

It’s well established that, after the first few years of a contract, the team holds all the cards. The team decides whether the contract will continue, one year at a time. And that’s exactly what will happen for the next dozen years; the Chiefs will control whether the relationship continues.

And, yes, Mahomes will be paid handsomely. Amid the haze that deliberately has been established to create the false impression that Mahomes has signed the first half-billion-dollar deal in sports history, the truth is that Mahomes signed a 10-year, $450 million extension and a 12-year, $477 million contract with up to $25 million more available in unspecified incentives.

When it comes to new money, the annual average represents a $10 million jump over the $35 million high-water mark that Russell Wilson established last year. But after the pandemic and the new TV deals, the salary cap will go up, significantly. The quarterback market eventually will expand, significantly. Billions will flow into the sport from legalized gambling which will spread, significantly, as states try to rebuild post-corona budgets. Mahomes, if he plays well enough to get the Chiefs to keep paying him, eventually will be getting a fraction of what he deserves, unless the Chiefs decide to do something they have no obligation to do through 2031 — rip up the contract and pay him more.

For now, the year to watch is 2027, when the commitment to Mahomes shoots to nearly $60 million for one season. Depending on where the cap stands at that point, where the quarterback market resides, and where Mahomes is from a skill standpoint (there’s no reason to think he won’t be even better, barring the impact of injuries), that’s where the Chiefs may want to tinker with the deal, possibly to create cap space or possibly to get the deal better in line with the cap and the market at the time, if the Chiefs are feeling guilty about what Mahomes has received for what he’ll be delivering from 2020 through 2026.

As it relates to 2020, Mahomes traded in the $27.63 million he was due to make over the next two years for $63 million fully guaranteed at signing on a 12-year commitment. In contrast, Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill received $62 million fully guaranteed on a four-year commitment. Of Mahomes contract, 13.2 percent is fully guaranteed at signing. Of Tannehill’s, 52.5 percent is fully guaranteed at signing.

Yes, Mahomes had two years left on his rookie contract, making his circumstances different from Tannehill’s. Still, Mahomes is a transcendent talent. Tannehill is at best an enigma who put together a really good season but who continues to be a largely unknown and inconsistent commodity and a noteworthy injury risk.

So what should Mahomes’ agents have done? They should have counseled him to wait. They should have pointed out that he will make $27.63 million over the next two years and that, at worst, he’d get well north of $30 million under the franchise tag in 2022, a 20-percent bump over that amount in 2023, and either a 44-percent increase over his 2023 pay or a shot at the open market in 2024.

They should have pointed out that he’ll also continue to make millions more in endorsement money, that he can easily afford an insurance policy protecting him against the kind of injury that would keep him from getting the kind of contract he’d get if he waits.

With Dak Prescott (more on his situation is coming in a separate item), the question is whether the Cowboys will offer him by next Wednesday enough to get him to trade in $31.4 million this year, $37.68 million next year, and a shot at free agency in 2022. For Mahomes, the question was whether the Chiefs offered him enough to trade him $27.63 million over the next two years, followed by the year-to-year tag dance. Mahomes, with the advice and consent of his agents, decided to swap his circumstances for a $63 million now and a 12-year commitment with the vague misrepresentation of a half-billion-dollar deal that soon will give the Chiefs full control over the continuation of his situation.

Again, Mahomes has the right to sign any contract he wants to sign. But plenty of agents would have advised him against trading what he could have gotten over the next four or five years for a 12-year commitment that was sufficiently good for the Chiefs to get them to run to the nearest liquor store looking for the most expensive champagne they could find.

83 responses to “The problems with the Patrick Mahomes contract

  1. Zero problem with the contract in and of itself. This proves yet again that Capitalism is the best economic model in the world. There will be long term consequences however for the team moving forward. With how to balance paying the rest of the roster.

  2. I see 2 HUGE problems not commonly mentioned:

    1) He doesn’t play for MY team

    2)MY name isn’t Patrick Mahomes

  3. Pretty sure I nailed it!
    ss222222 says:
    July 6, 2020 at 3:50 pm
    My guess is average about $44 Mil per and in 2 years after being strapped for cash for everybody else the Chiefs sign all the receivers from the 2019 end of year Eagles squad.

    4 7 Rate This

  4. If the team offered and Mahommes signed the contract, that was their business. No money out of my wallet. But,we’ll just have to wait and see what happens now. Will there be injuries? Will there be that career ending injury, etc, etc. Stay tuned.

  5. Maybe he sees some value in giving the team cost certainty to continue to build around him and make sure he doesn’t need to suffer through four 7-9 seasons in five years the way Drew Brees did after he broke the bank in New Orleans.

  6. He starts getting $40 million in 2023, if he hold out for every penny he’s not going to have anyone worth a damn to throw to or block him.

  7. It is crazy to think 60 mil per with r

    35 per right now is too high based on the cap, so why would 60 mil per 7 years from now be a good thing when one player, and I don’t care
    if it was moneygrabbing Manning or Brees and their disappointing amount of rings alongside Rodgers, it’s pretty clear if you don’t get the sport of football how every contract matters under a cap, you have no business speaking on this topic.

    It’s a bad deal for him for the years, but the annual cap hits are horrible for the team and Chiefs. They could easily miss the playoffs in 2021, in particular Chris Jones is gone as will be many other key players. They’d have to have numeorous A+ drafts in a row these last 3 years and beyond to offset the cap damage.

    This whole idea of a team friendly deal while averaging 40 mil per does not make sense.

    Continuity is king in the nfl and the Chiefs won’t have it for years.

  8. $40 mil cash by year 4 (not counting any prorated bones). $60 mil by year 8. Don’t think he’ll be crying poverty. And this still is a country where you get paid for performance (in almost all non-government jobs), so if he isn’t worth what he’s scheduled to make one year, they can make the decision to release or he can renegotiate to stay. If you want all guaranteed money at signing, we’d be talking about $100 mil, not $500 mil. Simple. So if someone doesn’t like that a team has the yearly option of deciding whether to pay an employee an amount they can afford/the player is worth, then it’s an argument that will never be decided (because logic isn’t involved).
    I believe the author also greatly underweights the risk of salaries DECREASING the next year (or 2-3 years) due to coronavirus (or whatever the next virus is that hits). Revenues will likely not “explode” (where is all this money supposed to come from in a country indebted beyond its ears?), but will likely take multiple years to recover.

  9. Tom Brady could have made double the amount of money during his career. But Tom chose championships over more money.

  10. He taking the Brady route – somewhat less money, allowing the team to have more flexibility in re-signing other players. Ultimately Brady accumulated more rings and along the way many more endorsements as a result of those rings, resulting in many more $$$$. Mahomes won’t be hurting, at least financially.

  11. There is no problem with the Mahomes contract. For anyone. Except, maybe, the Chiefs chances of winning another Super Bowl while he’s on the roster.

    Meanwhile, can we stop with the, “Boo hoos” whenever an already-rich player signs a contract that will make him insanely rich? That’s what’s happened with Mahomes, regardless – regardless – how how long he actually plays on that deal.

    Remember, the purpose of “work” is to earn a living. Mahomes’s living was done earned a LONG time ago. He’s simply playing games with numbers right now, so, congrats, I guess, for having the biggest, um, number on the bank statement.

    “This proves yet again that Capitalism is the best economic model in the world.” Hilarious! (130k dead and counting, but, yes, “Yay, capitalism!”)

  12. Biggest deal in NFL history in many aspects, but until someone gets their pay tied to a percentage of the cap, Florio will not be happy with it.

  13. Meh. He whacked the last two years on his rookie deal for a huge pay bump. In the NFL you gotta get as much as possible up front because your career may be cut short at any point in time. Yes, he could have gone the Kirk Cousins route and gambled on himself, but that has much more risk. He basically assured himself of franchise tag money and more for the short term with a gamble on himself to perform well and get paid top money for a few years after that. It’s easy to armchair the contract and say he could have gotten more, but I really don’t think it would have been worth the risk. If he gets half of his contract because of injury or decline in five years, it wouldn’t have been significantly that much different than if he’d roll the dice. Sure, Kirk Cousins parlayed the franchise tag into a few years of being over paid and fully guaranteed contract, but it was only 3 years after risking two AND playing out his rookie deal. Pat’s being a team player so that both he and the team don’t have to think about it for a while. This article is much ado about nothing more than playing devil’s advocate. Plus, there is a big assumption in this… nothing is predictable until Covid is stabilized. This year might be cut short. TV networks may pull back on the next contract with a possible recession that lasts a decade. I’m not saying that’s happening, but the possibility is much higher than it was pre-Covid.

  14. I made $5.25/hour in my first job after college. I wisely saved a lot of that and now have over 30K in the bank 38 years later.

  15. The problem is that it eats up too much money. Compare and contrast the two Washington teams: After SEA invested a fortune in Russell Wilson, they never sniffed a Super Bowl again. The Washington Redskins on the other hand have their superstar quarterback Dwayne Haskins under a team friendly salary contract meaning that they can afford other pro bowl caliber players like Chase Young, Terry McLaren, and Chris Holcomb. You could make the argument that Mahomes might be better than Haskins but it is undeniable that the Redskins have more available cap space to fill out their roster with elite players. This will not end will for the Chiefs.

  16. Brawnyhombre thinks Capitalism is hilarious. While posting on tools developed and produced by that very economic model. The irony abounds. There is a reason or two people come to the United States. To be free and to succeed based upon his or her skills and abilities. The limits are endless.

  17. If this was communism, PM would be earning $1000 a month, the same as a grocery store stocker. The rest of the money would be used to build infrastructure like railways, hospitals, highways and walls.

  18. When you’re splitting hairs over life changing money like Mahomes will be getting, you’ve lost me.

  19. Why should you have a problem with a player who
    1. Loves the team he plays for
    2. Loves the coaches he plays for
    3. Loves the city he plays for
    4. Loves the game he plays
    5. Understands that by not being a greedy pig he gives himself and the team he loves a better chance of being successful
    6. Understands that he is going to make more money than he will ever need thru endorsements
    7. Doesn’t let his ego get in the way of goals he wants to accomplish

  20. Being on the roster guaranteeing roster bonuses 2 year into the future make it very difficult to rip the band-aid off. Great deal for both sides.
    The idea of locking your contract to a percentage of the cap ignores the very likely chance that the cap could eventually go down. If viewership continues to drop, these networks might not want to add billions per year to the TV deals every few years.

  21. Here we go again with Florio using the best-case 5th-year-option and franchise-tag-tango scenario to make it look like a player got less than he deserved.

    The truth is that Mahomes traded in the 4th year of his rookie deal and the guaranteed-for-injury-only 5th year option of $27M for a fully guaranteed $63M over two years and then set himself up with a ten year extension averaging $45M a year from there.

    After 2027, Mahomes will always have the threat of holdout or even retirement to keep the Chiefs honest and force them to the table if the quarterback pay scale gets out of range for this deal.

    Another factor is that this style of contract makes sense for both sides. We only have to look at the Aaron Rodgers situation in Green Bay to realize that huge salary cap commitments can also trap a player in a situation he doesn’t want to be in, too. If the Chiefs and Mahomes have a falling out at any point in the future, it will be possible to trade him or simply cut him loose without destroying their salary cap situation.

  22. in the real world that’s how it works….when you are no longer worth what you are being paid you get let go or your compensation is renegotiated….this isn’t the NBA

  23. It really should be private and if Patrick and the Chiefs are comfortable who cares about the controversy the media is attempting to stir up…

  24. logast says:
    July 7, 2020 at 9:07 am

    This proves yet again that Capitalism is the best economic model in the world.
    ______________

    The NFL is hardly based on a capitalist model. If it was, there would be no draft, salary cap, revenue sharing, or antitrust exemptions.

    It’s actually a very wealthy socialist society.

  25. I don’t see any problem with his contract. He just made more money then I’d ever see in 500 lifetimes

  26. Another angle that Mahomes might have considered as the reason for signing – and one Florio seems never to give much weight:

    No one is promised tomorrow. Maximize your compensation based on right now – not what might be later.

  27. who cares about the controversy the media is attempting to stir up…
    ______________________________________________________________________

    Oh, if we could only take that attitude towards EVERYTHING the media “reports”. IMO, therein lies the crux of our problem(s).

  28. Less than 24 hours after signing the biggest/longest contract in football history we have people who get paid to create controversy analyzing and complaining.

    Shocking…

    Congratulations Pat, Congrats Chiefs!

  29. Should have signed an 8 year contract with 200 million fully guaranteed….THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN A WIN WIN

  30. Bud Fox said it best to Gordon Gecko when he asked how many yachts he needed to water ski behind.
    The kid is rich beyond dreams. Nobody knows what the future brings, but financially, this kind of money will make his descendants part of ‘old money’.

    He had an injury scare last year. Chiefs had him for another couple, and a franchise tag or 2 after that. Take the cash now.

  31. It’s not capitalism if you can’t choose your own team for up to 7 years. That’s not a free market.

    The NFL is and always will be a plutocracy with monopolistic tendencies.

  32. Patrick Mahomes 10yr/400m 40m/yr

    Cam “Mr. Fashion Look at Me” Newton – 1m with 550k guaranteed

    🙂

    Sorry Cam maybe next time

  33. The Patriots set the standard for doing it right. A couple of years ago, Belichick was good with letting TB12 walk and going with Jimmy G as the $$ made sense but…Mr. Kraft intervened to keep TB12 and he delivered another SB win.

    This time around, Mr. Kraft did not intervene and TB was allowed to go cripple someone else’s cap while the Patriots re-tool with all that saved money.

    I hate them as much as the next guy but this is one way to get it done without wallowing in salary cap misery for 3-4 years.

  34. “It’s difficult for me to criticize Patrick Mahomes contract.”

    C’mon. An ounce of self-awareness would rid your mind of that sort thinking. If anything it’ll prove difficult for you to not criticize it.

    Incessantly.

    For the next decade.

    Oh goody…

  35. Aw man, I feel so bad for him, signing the biggest contract in NFL history, likely winning several Super Bowls, and already being considered the greatest in NFL history. As a son of a professional athlete, it’s been a tough life for him, and I hope he catches a break one of these days.

  36. He got a GIGANTIC contract, the richest in history, and did it without any threats or hard feelings between him and the team. AND, somehow, came away with it seeming like a reasonable value to the team leaving hopes high they can still put talent around him. A win for everybody. Yet, we get an article about how he should have played hardball to wring a few more bucks out of the team?

  37. I do believe Patrick Mahomes could opt out of his contract if certain mechanisms were not triggered. The reason i brought that up is that at any time he could still REQUEST a TRADE even Tomorrow if he wasn’t happy or comfortable.

  38. All that word salad just to try and justify the fact Florio is hurt that no team will ever sign a QB to a contract that gives them a percentage of the salary cap.

  39. jagsfan1 says:
    July 7, 2020 at 10:39 am
    Patrick Mahomes 10yr/400m 40m/yr
    Cam “Mr. Fashion Look at Me” Newton – 1m with 550k guaranteed
    ———————
    The way the contract is written, Mahomes is an injury or two away from following in Cam’s footsteps. Its crazy that a player of Mahomes caliber has so little guarantees in the contract.

  40. jurgyisgod says:
    July 7, 2020 at 9:40 am
    The problem is that it eats up too much money. Compare and contrast the two Washington teams: After SEA invested a fortune in Russell Wilson, they never sniffed a Super Bowl again. The Washington Redskins on the other hand have their superstar quarterback Dwayne Haskins under a team friendly salary contract meaning that they can afford other pro bowl caliber players like Chase Young, Terry McLaren, and Chris Holcomb. You could make the argument that Mahomes might be better than Haskins but it is undeniable that the Redskins have more available cap space to fill out their roster with elite players. This will not end will for the Chiefs.
    —————————————————————–

    Dwayne Haskins = superstar?! Hahahahahahaha Thanks for the good laugh!

  41. Well it all reality it’s a more or less a 3 to 5 year deal, depending on when the chiefs want to cut him. No way do i see the chiefs taking a 60 million dollar cap hit in 2027- one would expect thats the latest he will re-do his contract. With that said as a raiders fan, its going to be tough having to play him for so long.

  42. As long as he’s happy with the contract that’s all that matters. As a fan I’m thrilled!

  43. u cant give 1 player 20% of the cap and expect the rest of the team to be happy .. players know the only way to get paid is to get out of KC. dont see them winning it all again any time soon . cant make ends meet on 25 mil a yr ??

  44. “Billions will flow into the sport from legalized gambling which will spread”
    ———————-

    Sorry to burst your bubble of inflating numbers to make the deal look bad for Mahomes, but please explain how the NFL is making “billions” in legalized gambling.

    Are they getting a cut of the action? Nope.
    Are they running a casino with a sports betting house? Nope.
    Are they being paid an annual fee for letting their sport to be bet on? Nope.

    So how exactly is there “billions” that the Mahomes contract is missing out?

  45. The more years you give the team, the higher your salary. The more guaranteed money you want, the lower your salary. Everything is a give-take. Mahomes ultimately bet on himself to still be great by the time his annual cap hit jumps north of $50 million.

    If he’s still great, the Chiefs will have no problem paying him, or giving him more money in a restructure.

    If he’s not as great, the Chiefs will cut him, and he’ll get a shot at the open market.

  46. firstdownbrowns says:
    July 7, 2020 at 11:08 am
    u cant give 1 player 20% of the cap and expect the rest of the team to be happy .. players know the only way to get paid is to get out of KC. dont see them winning it all again any time soon . cant make ends meet on 25 mil a yr ??

    ——————————————————————–

    But all those players who will want one of the next 10 superbowl rings will gladly take a paycut just for the chance to be on the same team as Mahomes. Thats how KC will see it. I’ve always wondered what 7 on 11 football would look like. Guess we’ll see that in KC.

  47. So in a worst case scenario according to Florio, Mahomes will at some point have a boatload of money that he will not know what to do with, but at the same time not be making as much as some lesser quarterbacks which means that KC will have more money to add more talent to Mahomes team thus making it more likely for him to win more rings.

  48. drywormdryworm says:
    July 7, 2020 at 9:23 am

    Tom Brady could have made double the amount of money during his career. But Tom chose championships over more money.
    _________________________________________________

    Good for Tom. You should take a pay cut too, so your company can sell more vacuum cleaners. And along the way, you will marry a rich supermodel too.

  49. Rare, elite talent and a quality human being. Other athlete’s take note. He stays away from the drama, doesn’t kneel for the anthem, team player, works hard, etc etc. I’m not a KC fan, but players like him are true role models that sports doesn’t have many of these days. Glad to see KC reward him. I see this as a win for the player, team, and sport.

  50. Team friendly deal for the Chiefs and Pat Mahomes wanted it that way. All he cares about is winning and he knows there has to money for his teammates. Chase the dynasty.

  51. Why wouldn’t his agent negotiate a 4 year contract so he could renegotiate during his prime at what will likely be more money for a top qb? The Chiefs seem to hold the cards on him for… well the rest of his career.

  52. “They should have pointed out that he will make $27.63 million over the next two years and that, at worst, he’d get well north of $30 million under the franchise tag in 2022, a 20-percent bump over that amount in 2023, and either a 44-percent increase over his 2023 pay or a shot at the open market in 2024.”

    Mike keeps banging the drum on this, but just because it worked well for Cousins doesn’t mean it’s the path that everyone wants to take. The Chiefs have a challenging salary cap situation over the next few years and it benefits the team not to have uncertainty over the Mahomes contract. And if Mahomes looks at the Brady contracts, perhaps he feels what benefits the team may benefit him as well.

  53. Yes skmad2014, Dwayne is a superstar. Compare him to Mahomes if you want. Dwayne was able to win a starting berth his rookie; Mahomes couldn’t. In a straight up comparison, as a rookie last year Dwayne had more passing yards, more rushing yards, more passing touchdowns and more rushing touchdowns than did Mahomes in his rookie year. My basic point is that reasonable minds can differ on whether Mahomes is better than Haskins or vice versa. But nobody can dispute the Redskins have the better value.

  54. Dak Prescott in no way deserves a 30mil, or more per year, has he even so much as won a division championship? He certainly has never won a NFC championship, let alone a SB. Perform 1st, them pay them. The NFL foolishly pays too much on potential (see Mitch Trubisky) Mahomes winning a SB at age 24 is unheard of, Prescott, even with one of the best RB’s in football still can’t near the hump, much less over it.

  55. jurgyisgod says:
    July 7, 2020 at 9:40 am

    You could make the argument that Mahomes might be better than Haskins but it is undeniable that the Redskins have more available cap space to fill out their roster with elite players.

    ———————————————————————-

    No you couldn’t make that argument, because that assumes there is something to argue. If you actually believe Haskins might be better than Mahomes, you are alone on the planet in your thinking, and that includes the Haskins family.

  56. Both parties signed the deal. Both parties were not under duress to sign the deal. It is a good deal. Aren’t you a lawyer?

  57. Actually that this contract demonstrates is that Mahome’s agent understands textbook economics, and not internet economics where a dollar today is worth as much as a dollar tomorrow. That is the biggest demonstrable flaw with the arguments that players should just play out their tags and treat that value as the “floor” in their negotiations.

    No, his agents should not have counseled him to wait, saying “you will get $27M over the next two years.” That would be factually wrong. HIS agents, who understand economics, likely told him, “Your two year earnings are calculated by the money you are supposed to earn, minus the injury risk, economics risk and uncertainty” and they did the actual math and also calculated the additional money Mahomes would make by investing a real dollar today vs. a speculative dollar two years from now, in other words, they calculated the opportunity costs associated with this contract. I’ll say this again, but economics is not hard to understand but most people don’t think about it correctly.

    For Prescott–and this is relevant because it demonstrates that Florio is looking at contracts wrong in general, he keeps making a math error when talking about the value of Prescott’s options.

    Its objectively rational (in the economics definition) and demonstrable using economics that the “floor” that Florio keeps talking about for Prescott is not $69M (the sum of the two tagged years) because you have to solve for the Net Present Value and also the risk discount. The NPV has a fairly complex but solvable, accepted mathematical formula. But in short, a $10M signing bonus today has demonstrably more value than a $10M signing bonus in the future, since it can immediately be invested and begin returning value. If i had the inclination I could do it. Keep in mind the NPV works in the Owner’s favor, since every day a an owner isn’t paying that signing bonus is another day he gets to keep it working for him.

    But that’s not all. A player needs to solve for the risk, which is again demonstrable. And that one is easier. Take the proportion of starting quarterbacks who were hurt last year–Ben, Drew, Foles, Newton, Wentz, Mahomes. Those are off the top of my head. So there’s an 18 percent change of a significant injury in which you’ll be replaced by a very competent Andy Dalton. Maybe a 6 percent chance you are done for the year. Again, this could be done more scientifically by going back and averaging over a number of years, and should be by his agent. And if he has a serious injury he is not getting that second tag, especially if Dalton plays well.

    So then (roughly), to solve the equation, Prescott would say, “If I expect to make $30M this year and 37 the next, but I have an 18 percent chance of being injured and missing out on that second tag, then my real expected earnings are 30M (this years tag) plus 82% of 37M, which is also $30M (37M discounted by the 18 percent change of injury.” That still doesn’t add in the discount for the Net Present Value, which discounts the calculation even more. So the floor is closer to 60M than 70M, and probably even lower than that.

    For Mahomes, with more years of injury risk, the NPV of a dollar goes up, because he has to shoulder more years of risk–at 18%–and he’s already had one. So he adds up his expected earnings on his present contract and the tags but also has to deduct an increased year of injury risk calculations. Again, this isn’t my opinion its academically demonstrated economics.

    Economics is real science and those who don’t understand it are doomed to be taken advantage of by those who do. Which is why Jerry Jones is making money off of Dak Prescott’s signing bonus right now and Dak, thanks to support from other people who won’t understand economics, is deluding himself into thinking he’s winning the negotiation.

  58. jurgyisgod says:
    July 7, 2020 at 9:40 am
    The problem is that it eats up too much money. Compare and contrast the two Washington teams: After SEA invested a fortune in Russell Wilson, they never sniffed a Super Bowl again. The Washington Redskins on the other hand have their superstar quarterback Dwayne Haskins under a team friendly salary contract meaning that they can afford other pro bowl caliber players like Chase Young, Terry McLaren, and Chris Holcomb. You could make the argument that Mahomes might be better than Haskins but it is undeniable that the Redskins have more available cap space to fill out their roster with elite players. This will not end will for the Chiefs.
    _______________

    Its not an argument: Mahomes is better than Haskins. Tenfold. The most important position in football by far is QB. The Chiefs have the best of the best. The Seahawks, who you mentioned, have a top 5 QB. The Redskins have a bottom 5 QB, and he is being paid as such. He may progress into something better – time will tell – but every team in the NFL would jump at the opportunity to pay a young, dominant QB a market-value contract.

  59. I’m not sure everyone is appreciating how much the cap will rise once this covid stuff dies down in a couple years and the new TV contracts are signed. By then a $45M/yr QB contract won’t be a big deal. Well, unless its given to Mitch Trubisky.

  60. Why does Mike think he knows what is better for Patrick Mahommes than Patrick Mahommes?

  61. The only real money is guaranteed money. All the rest is nonsense and everybody knows that.
    Mahomes should have signed a Bobby Bonilla contract that pays him $40 million every July 6 for the next 12 years NO MATTER WHAT.

    Career ending injury? He gets paid $40 million every July 6 for the next 12 years.
    No more NFL ever due to various pandemics? He gets paid $40 million every July 6 for the next 12 years.
    Mahomes gets bored and retires to paint water colors? He gets paid $40 million every July 6 for the next 12 years.

  62. We are all winners. Mahomes gets to pay over $1 million per game in federal income taxes.

  63. purpleguy says:
    July 7, 2020 at 12:48 pm
    I’m not sure everyone is appreciating how much the cap will rise once this covid stuff dies down in a couple years and the new TV contracts are signed. By then a $45M/yr QB contract won’t be a big deal. Well, unless its given to Mitch Trubisky.
    ____________________

    What happens next season when the cap actually goes down because of Covid? And it will…

  64. “but until someone gets their pay tied to a percentage of the cap, Florio will not be happy with it.”
    ______________

    Which, of course, is never going to happen. EVERY long-term financial deal you will ever enter into in either your business or personal life is done with the hope/expectation that your payments will effectively go down over time as your revenue/income increase. Would you sign a mortgage or car loan where your payments went up every time you got a raise at work? That’s sheer lunacy. The only reason long-term deals exist is because of the tradeoff where the seller gets a big chunk of money at one time while the buyer has the hope of it becoming a better deal over time.

  65. Maybe he wants to more rings instead? It’s already a sizeable contract, specially in these uncertain times. Also, we need to pump the brakes with the kid. He’s fantastic, but so was Rodgers once upon a time. The Patriots made it look easy, it isn’t.

  66. What I like about the deal is that by the the time Andy Reid is about to hang it up( around 2025-2027), the chiefs would be looking to restructure the deal( because of the 60 million a year that they owe him for 2027). Then Mahomes holds most of the cards and could force his way out if he doesn’t like the new coach or is not happy with the direction of the team.
    Hopefully he would have another coupe of SBs in the next 5 yrs and both parties would be very content with the outcome.

  67. jm91rs says:
    July 7, 2020 at 9:34 am
    Biggest deal in NFL history in many aspects, but until someone gets their pay tied to a percentage of the cap, Florio will not be happy with it.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    At this point it is either a legitimate issue of diminished intelligence or an active trolling. The team willingly signed the deal and so did the player. None of the wishful thinking matters. Florio’s concept seems to be based on the belief a player should be paid no matter what. Regardless of the circumstances, the player MUST have the advantage and receive all money or the deal is not good. He sees no problem with a player getting paid tons of money even if they decide not to play, cannot win the job, cannot step on the field or even continue to play because of legitimate or imagined injury. That’s why his belief is so annoyingly myopic and one side. He lacks the ability or integrity to objectively view things from the other side. All that stuff he thinks the player should have received was traded for the things the player did receive. That’s how negotiations work. Florio seems to think that the players’ desires should be met and the teams’ needs are secondary.

  68. No NFL Player is worth that kind of money !!! Especially a Chiefs Player. It will be interesting to see what happens when he gets his career-ending injury this year and just sits on the couch eating Jell-O making all that money !! Maybe the chiefs will regret this move..

  69. Aloha,
    Kneecap. Can you image what his thoughts were after that injury? His football future must have been throbbing in his mind. The real risk of being in the NFL and the idea of Not For Long was as clear as the cast on his leg.

    We are all different. $ million in the hand is pretty attractive.

    The team will be in control of the $ he makes. What a surprise. And, he will almost certainly have well over $150 million a few years from now.

    Why risk that?

    He wants to play and not worry about money.He is on a good team with a good offensive coach. He will win lots of games if healthy. He now has generational money if he is the least bit careful with it.

    Well Done, I say

  70. Bkinaction, while I appreciate your contribution to the discussion, I have to respectfully disagree with your point of view. Dwayne Haskins is a truly great quarterback. His only year at OSU he was simply lights out. And with Washington, he got off to a slow start in part because rookies often do and in part because he had a horrible coach in Gruden. But by the end of the year, he was hurling it like he did at OSU and easily on part with Mahomes. And this isn’t a knock on Patrick, I love the guy, but I just wanted to weigh in with an objective appraisal of the two players.

  71. Andy Reid is the best coach in football. He’s the one that should be getting the big contract.

  72. “Billions will flow into the sport from legalized gambling”
    ____________

    Care to share the math on how EXACTLY that is going to happen? The NFL doesn’t get a percentage of bets placed, they don’t own the casinos or bookmakers, nor are any of those things likely to ever happen. Their only revenue stream from gambling to date has been an agreement on selling their stats and that deal isn’t worth billions. Just because people are betting on you doesn’t magically mean some of that money comes your way.

  73. “He potentially could become the best player in league history, at any position.”

    Who pump the breaks there Bucky. As far as what he can do on a field today sure he us indeed the ‘current’ best player in football. But you want to talk about greatest in history there are some careers that will be tough to argue against. And if you are comparing the short career hes had so far to those thats really out there. Historical results arent about what you can get done on the field today. Its not whoever hit the highest peak during their career. Its who delivered the most total results over their career. And in that category we have three guys still playing today that have put out more than Mahomes. And as far as who put out the most over a total career any position over history those three guys will have other guys ahead if them. (TBF not sure about Brady, his total is a freak and could be the top ever). Mahomes might get there someday. But to be declaring its going to happen this early in a career? Nope.

  74. Back in the day, professional football players got paid very little. Most of them worked on farms or in steel mills during the offseason just to make ends meet.

    Once Bob Lily was talking to a player from another team about salaries. This other player bragged that he was earning $70,000/year. Lily was earning $35,000.

    After that conversation, Lily famously said, “Tex Schramm knows we would play this game for nothing. So that’s what he pays us.” And he’s in the Ring of Honor and the Hall of Fame. The other player, not so much.

    Roger Staubach made his millions in real estate after football. He didn’t buy and sell, flip properties, but rather managed commercial properties. He finally sold his commercial business for over $60 million. Staubach said that the cost of a luxury suite at a Cowboys game was more than Dallas ever paid him. And he won two Super Bowls!

    There is something seriously wrong with this formula today. I don’t doubt Mahomes’s contract. Hey, get what you can while you can.

  75. He got a GIGANTIC contract, the richest in history

    Mike Trout 437 million fully guaranteed

  76. This is only a 141m, 3 year contract. 60 million comes from the signing bonus. The Chiefs have basically treat each year like a 5th year option on a rookie contract. If they have Mahones on the roster, he will be on the roster for the next year after that. So they have to think 2 years ahead if they want to get out of the contract.

  77. So the criticism is that Mahomes let the Chiefs be the one to determine whether he works for them or not. Yeah, NFL players – like lawyers – and unions – are free agents. Contract types. And whaddaya know, they don’t ‘get’ the idea of living life as, you know, employees. Like all of the rest of us do, who furnish their income.

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