PFT’s Week Four picks

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MDS has built a lead. Will he hold it, or will he Falcon things up?

Last week, I picked up a game in the straight-up competition, going 10-6 to his 9-7. Against the spread I did even better, going 10-5-1 to his 6-10.

For the year, he’s 33-15 straight up and 27-21 against the spread. I’m now 31-17 and 26-21-1.

For this week’s picks, featuring no straight-up disagreements but a couple when the spread is factored in, scroll away.

Broncos (+1.5) at Jets

MDS’s take: The loser of this game is the favorite to earn the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft. With Brett Rypien starting for Denver, I’ll take Sam Darnold and the Jets in a home upset.

MDS’s pick: Jets 24, Broncos 13.

Florio’s take: How bad have things gotten for the Jets? Bad enough that they’re slim favorites against a winless team starting an undrafted quarterback better known for being the nephew of Mark Rypien. If the Jets don’t win now, they never will.

Florio’s pick: Jets 20, Broncos 10.


Browns (+4.5) at Cowboys

MDS’s take: The Dak Prescott-led Cowboys’ offense should put plenty of points on the board, and I don’t think the Browns’ offense can keep up.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 30, Browns 17.

Florio’s take: The ground-and-pound Browns won’t be able to slow down a passing attack led by Dak Prescott and more receivers than Cleveland can consistently cover.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 34, Browns 24.


Vikings (+4.5) at Texans

MDS’s take: Both of these teams had playoff aspirations and are now 0-3, but I trust Deshaun Watson to get things turned around more than I trust Kirk Cousins.

MDS’s pick: Texans 27, Vikings 20.

Florio’s take: It’s the Something’s Gotta Give Bowl. Do the Texans have the offense to outpace an improving Minnesota attack? Maybe not, but I refuse to pick the Vikings until they show they can win a game. 

Florio’s pick: Texans 34, Vikings 27.


Saints (-4) at Lions

MDS’s take: The Lions looked better than expected on Sunday and the Saints looked worse, but I just don’t see the Lions’ defense being able to stop the Saints’ multifaceted offensive attack.

MDS’s pick: Saints 30, Lions 20.

Florio’s take: The Lions have gotten their win for the first half of the season, so they can take their foot off the gas against a desperate Saints team.

Florio’s pick: Saints 31, Lions 17.


Colts (-2.5) at Bears

MDS’s take: Nick Foles stepped in for Mitchell Trubisky and played well on Sunday, but the Colts’ defense is among the best in the league and will give Foles fits.

MDS’s pick: Colts 20, Bears 10.

Florio’s take: With the Eagles, Frank Reich helped lead Nick Foles to a Super Bowl MVP award. Frank Reich’s team now becomes the first opponent for Foles’ latest stint as a starter. Indy pops Chicago’s unbeaten bubble, but in a close one.

Florio’s pick: Colts 23, Bears 20.


Cardinals (-3.5) at Panthers

MDS’s take: Kyler Murray had a rough game on Sunday, with three interceptions against the Lions, but he’ll bounce back in a big way against a young Panthers Defense that is going to have trouble keeping up with the Cardinals’ wide-open offense.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 32, Panthers 21.

Florio’s take: The Cardinals need to learn how to win the games they’re supposed to win. Last week, they failed. This week, it won’t get any easier against a Carolina team that is ahead of schedule in its effort to rebuild.

 Florio’s pick: Cardinals 30, Panthers 23.


Ravens (-13) at Washington

MDS’s take: The Ravens’ defense was torn apart by Patrick Mahomes, but Dwayne Haskins is not Patrick Mahomes.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 20, Washington 10.

Florio’s take: If the Chiefs are Baltimore’s Kryptonite, Washington is Baltimore’s Jimmy Olsen.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 30, Washington 13.


Chargers (+7) at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: Tom Brady hasn’t quite taken off in Bruce Arians’ offense just yet, but the Buccaneers’ defense is good enough that Justin Herbert won’t be able to do much on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 17, Chargers 10.

Florio’s take: Justin Herbert followed a great debut with a clunker. He’ll get a glimpse on Sunday of what he’s striving to ultimately become.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Chargers 13.


Jaguars (+3) at Bengals

MDS’s take: I think Joe Burrow can have a bright future ahead of him, but he simply doesn’t have a good enough team around him just yet. The Jaguars will go to Cincinnati and come home with a win.

MDS’s pick: Jaguars 21, Bengals 14.

Florio’s take: Jacksonville lost to Miami because quarterback Gardner Minshew didn’t have the time to operate the offense. That won’t be the case against the Bengals.

Florio’s pick: Jaguars 30, Bengals 24.


Seahawks (-6.5) at Dolphins

MDS’s take: The Seahawks’ secondary is a mess, and I expect Ryan Fitzpatrick to gain plenty of yards through the air. But Russell Wilson will make a few more big plays as the Seahawks win a close one.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 35, Dolphins 31.

Florio’s take: FitzMagic mode is in full effect, but the Dolphins don’t have the firepower to match the #LetRussCook menu.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 31, Dolphins 20.


Giants (+13) at Rams

MDS’s take: The Rams are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Bills, but they should bounce back easily against a very bad Giants team.

MDS’s pick: Rams 31, Giants 10.

Florio’s take: Whenever a team is getting 13 points, how can you pick against them to cover? When they’re the Giants, and when they’re playing the Rams.

Florio’s pick: Rams 27, Giants 13.


Bills (-3) at Raiders

MDS’s take: Josh Allen is an MVP candidate, and he’s going to keep it going against a Raiders Defense that looked on Sunday like it has a lot of holes.

MDS’s pick: Bills 28, Raiders 21.

Florio’s take: Josh Allen was pissed about the 25-point lead that got away. He’ll be determined to build and hold a lead against a Vegas team that’s surely feeling a little shell-shocked after losing in New England.

Florio’s pick: Bills 30, Raiders 20.


Patriots (+7) at Chiefs

MDS’s take: It wouldn’t surprise me if the Chiefs have a bit of a letdown after their big win on Monday night, but even with a letdown I see them finding a way to beat the Patriots.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 24, Patriots 21.

Florio’s take: If there’s a postseason rematch, I’ll pick the Patriots. For now, Kansas City has the horses to outscore Cam Newton and company.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 31, Patriots 27.


Eagles (+7) at 49ers

MDS’s take: The 49ers have been ravaged by injuries, but until I see more from Carson Wentz, I can’t pick the Eagles to win.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 20, Eagles 17.

Florio’s take: The 49ers have become the ultimate Next Man Up team. It helps to be facing a series of Next Man Overboard opponents.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 27, Eagles 17.


Falcons (+7.5) at Packers

MDS’s take: The Packers’ offense is firing on all cylinders right now, and the Falcons’ defense can’t stop anyone. I don’t think this game will be close.

MDS’s pick: Packers 34, Falcons 17.

Florio’s take: The Falcons won’t have to worry about blowing a big lead this week.

Florio’s pick: Packers 40, Falcons 24.

42 responses to “PFT’s Week Four picks

  1. Lol the eagles have looked like utter trash in every game and y’all have the niners only beating them by 3 and 10? Hilarious.

    Niners 56 Eagles 0

  2. Makes me a little nervous how confident they are in the Packers. I think it will be closer, but Pack will pull it out at home.

  3. Florio went with my Chiefs and ignored his Patriots love affair this week? 2020 is strange

  4. Patriots 24 Chiefs 31 Cam hasn’t gotten the timing of the short passing right and Mahomes will use some clock killing to keep the game under control.

    Upset of the week for me is Bengals over Jags 20 to 10 Burrow gets his first win.

    Lock of the week is Rams over Giants 38 to 13 I see this game being an ugly beat down thanks to the Rams defense.

  5. Florio’s take: It’s the Something’s Gotta Give Bowl. Do the Texans have the offense to outpace an improving Minnesota attack? Maybe not, but I refuse to pick the Vikings until they show they can win a game.

    ________

    Smart. Put zero faith into this team until they show they deserve it.

  6. Regardless of the score throughout the first 3 quarters of the Monday night matchup, I guess I’ll still believe in the Packers.
    At least until the Falcons price otherwise.

  7. TouchdownKANSASCITY! says:
    October 1, 2020 at 1:10 pm
    Florio went with my Chiefs and ignored his Patriots love affair this week? 2020 is strange

    ————

    Unless it’s the postseason. I think people need to understand that while Bill is still Bill, Cam isn’t Tom Brady.

  8. As a Packer fan this game has trap game written all over it. If you bet take Atlanta to cover. They might actually win that one.

  9. LacesoutDan says:
    October 1, 2020 at 1:31 pm
    Upsets of the week. Washington over Baltimore 28-17. Browns over Cowboys 24-21

    —————————

    Like your thinking! Here’s mine: Eagles 24, 49ers 23

  10. I see the Falcons’ offense putting up some points, but MDS is right that the Packers’ offense will be a buzzsaw for them. In fact I think GB will score 50 on ATL. Packers 52 Falcons 28

  11. Tonight’s game may be more entertaining than it looks on paper. Gase is playing for his job and Darnold looked better in years past, so he had the talent. Plus Denver’s defense is no joke. Will be worth watching atleast through halftime.

  12. The service was fine, as one would expect from a dealership service department. The wait, on the other hand was beyond horrible, especially for something as simple as an oil change WITH a scheduled appointment.

    I have one more free service coming with my vehicle’s purchase. I’ll probably try a different dealership and if my next experience isn’t any better, it will be a very long time before I see the inside of another GM dealership.

    My time may not mean anything to you, but it’s extremely important to me.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    I understand disagreeing with these guys’ picks but their picks are at least feasible. Predictions like 56-0 are almost guaranteed to land a guy on planet This Is Why Nobody Takes You Seriously.

  13. When will you guys learn to pick the Bears? Especially against a Colts team that’s only beaten the pathetic Vikings and Jets?

    The defenses are comparable, and Foles is the better quarterback at this stage in their careers.

  14. Saints over Lions – saints are just to talented a team to lose to the Lions.

    Cardinals over Panther – cardinals show flashes of winning attributes and the panther have a good running Back (not much else)….

    Buccaneers over Chargers – bucs are starting to click on both sides of the ball and the Chargers just look lost..

    Packers over Falcon – falcons can’t seem to finish as well as they start and put the game away….

  15. mikethevike11 says:
    October 1, 2020 at 1:16 pm

    Florio’s take: It’s the Something’s Gotta Give Bowl. Do the Texans have the offense to outpace an improving Minnesota attack? Maybe not, but I refuse to pick the Vikings until they show they can win a game.

    ________

    Smart. Put zero faith into this team until they show they deserve it.

    *************************************
    Only thing I can’t understand about the statement is that BOTH teams are 0-0.
    Kind of an oxymoron then for Florio to say he can’t pick the VIKINGS until they prove they can “win” a game. How about the Texans? They are winless too, right?

    So, what Florio? Following logic – then you should pick it to be a tie, right?

  16. I have been reading Florio since he had five readers as a lawyer with a football jones and am starting to believe he is a Browns hater….Lighten up!
    The Browns o-line is learning to play with each other (plenty of talent) and the defensive backfield is getting healthy and starting to fulfill their promise….Browns will make it very close and “Ground and Pound” is exactly the right formula for a O oriented Cowboys. The “Boys” defense is exactly the right formula for the Browns O.

    Browns 34 – 28

  17. Just remember in November you had a chance to stop this from spreading.
    No idea how you have the Titans not playing but the Vikings are.

  18. Around now is when we will see what teams look like week one of a normal season. Until now, teams have been trying to find their groove. Teams we think are bad are going to start turning it around. The good teams will remain good. The so-so teams that are a surprise will flop. The Vikings? There ain’t no fixing that mess. They are what they are going to be. I am hoping for an 0-16 season for their fans.

  19. The Almighty Cabbage says:
    October 1, 2020 at 2:27 pm

    The service was fine, as one would expect from a dealership service department. The wait, on the other hand was beyond horrible, especially for something as simple as an oil change WITH a scheduled appointment.

    I have one more free service coming with my vehicle’s purchase. I’ll probably try a different dealership and if my next experience isn’t any better, it will be a very long time before I see the inside of another GM dealership.

    My time may not mean anything to you, but it’s extremely important to me.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    I understand disagreeing with these guys’ picks but their picks are at least feasible. Predictions like 56-0 are almost guaranteed to land a guy on planet This Is Why Nobody Takes You Seriously.
    ___________

    I agree with you, and I’m sorry about the bad experience with your oil change.

  20. The Jets are more than capable of losing to Mark Rypien’s nephew. He has better credentials as the nephew of a SB winner than anyone on the Jets.

  21. In the case of the Broncos how does a team go from Super Bowl champion to #1 draft pick in just a matter of a few years?

  22. We’ve got a couple possible trap games this week. The Chargers could beat the Bucs, especially if they win the turnover game. And the Raiders could easily surprise the Bills if Buffalo doesn’t have their heads in the game.

  23. I’m rooting for the Vikings and Justin Jefferson. I picked him up on wavers this week, and may need to sub him in for Fuller.

    The Vikings D isn’t what it used to be, so they’ll need to win some through the air.

  24. Andy is going to pull some rabbits out of the hat against BB. He’s got stuff he’s been waiting to throw at the Pats D. Then the Chiefs offense will be pretty Vanilla till the playoffs. I dont think Cam is going to any more successful than Lamar was against the Chiefs D. I dont see the Pats scoring with the Chiefs and Gilmore has to lead the league in holding/pass interference for corners this year.

  25. If Andy is going to “pull some rabbits out of the hat” against Belichick—he isn’t very smart.

    This is the regular season. You can assume they’ll face each other in the playoffs.

    Belichick never shows his hand until it’s called.

  26. slyder1969 says:
    October 1, 2020 at 3:56 pm

    Around now is when we will see what teams look like week one of a normal season. Until now, teams have been trying to find their groove. Teams we think are bad are going to start turning it around. The good teams will remain good. The so-so teams that are a surprise will flop. The Vikings? There ain’t no fixing that mess. They are what they are going to be. I am hoping for an 0-16 season for their fans.
    ———————————————————————————

    I’m hoping they go 0-16 and draft Trevor Lawrence. Let Cousins walk. Also, Eagles over Niners is a lock!

  27. ikeclanton says:
    October 1, 2020 at 7:31 pm
    If Andy is going to “pull some rabbits out of the hat” against Belichick—he isn’t very smart.

    This is the regular season. You can assume they’ll face each other in the playoffs.

    Belichick never shows his hand until it’s called.
    ———
    Pats will be lucky if they make it to the playoffs as a wildcard. Reid’s got a lot more tricks up his sleeve. Cam will be tired and hurt by mid season.

  28. NE and Cam will do better than last week– a game they won handily against a highly-regarded team coming off an impressive win.
    Cam is learning, working with a new team, new offense.

    NE’s D is solid. Gilmore won’t be laying off Hill and Kelsey as much as he did last week…which forced him to grab when beat. Better a PI than a TD.

    I look for a textbook BB-prepared team, knowing full well who they’re going up against.
    Serious faces all around.

  29. bengals4life says:
    October 1, 2020 at 2:24 pm
    Tonight’s game may be more entertaining than it looks on paper. Gase is playing for his job and Darnold looked better in years past, so he had the talent. Plus Denver’s defense is no joke. Will be worth watching atleast through halftime.

    ======================

    Good call. Jets have less than 350 total yds with less than 6 to go. Darnold had that amazing run and it’s a 1pt game. Nice.

  30. Missed Thurs. night’s game, but honestly I would have chose the Jets to win.

    The winners:

    Cowboys, Vikes, Saints, Colts, Cards, Ravens, Bolts, Bengals, ‘Hawks, Rams, Bills, Chiefs, Niners and Pack.

  31. Bears for win, with Nick Foles I think the offence is going to be on point and as long as the Bears D to good job of applying pressure on Rivers, Rivers will try to force it and Bears need to be able to pounce. Also the power rankings has the Bears at 12 and Colts at 14 🙂

    Best bets for me: Niners, Packers and Rams

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