PFT’s Week Six picks

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Week Five was a good week in that most of the games were played. Week Five was a bad week in that we didn’t do very well picking games, especially against the spread.

Straight up, my faith in the Panthers delivered a one-game bump, 9-5 versus 8-6 for MDS. Against the spread, I hit on only six of 14. MDS was 4-10.

For the year, he’s 50-27 straight up and 35-41-1 against the spread. I’m now 49-28 and 38-37-2.

Our picks for Week Six appear below, with three straight-up disagreements.

Texans (+3) at Titans

MDS’s take: The Titans made a major statement with Tuesday night’s win over the Bills, and I see them keeping it going on Sunday. Despite having to come back from a short week against a Texans team that’s motivated to turn things around after its ugly start.

MDS’s pick: Titans 24, Texans 14.

Florio’s take: The Titans thrive on adversity and turmoil. The Texans don’t.

Florio’s pick: Titans 30, Texans 13.


Bengals (+7.5) at Colts

MDS’s take: Joe Burrow has been struggling mightily to deal with pass pressure, and the Colts’ defense is good at bringing the pressure. This one could get tough for the rookie quarterback.

MDS’s pick: Colts 17, Bengals 7.

Florio’s take: The Bengals need a least two drafts to get enough help around Joe Burrow.

Florio’s pick: Colts 24, Bengals 10.


Falcons (+4) at Vikings

MDS’s take: The Falcons’ problems go far beyond head coach Dan Quinn, and firing him isn’t going to fix much.

MDS’s pick: Vikings 28, Falcons 13.

Florio’s take: Sometimes, going with an interim coach makes a team instantly better. Sometimes, it doesn’t.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 31, Falcons 20.


Broncos (+9.5) at Patriots

MDS’s take: The Patriots have been hit hard by COVID-19, but the Broncos have been hit even harder by injuries.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 28, Broncos 17.

Florio’s take: The extra week allowed both teams to get their starting quarterbacks back. Advantage, team with the former MVP at quarterback.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 31, Broncos 17.


Washington (+2.5) at Giants

MDS’s take: There are major questions about whether Washington has a capable starting quarterback on its roster, either for now or for the future. And yet I have a feeling Ron Rivera’s defense will demonstrate that the Giants have a pretty big question mark at quarterback as well.

MDS’s pick: Washington 17, Giants 13.

Florio’s take: Something’s Gotta Give week lets Washington get their second win of the season.

Florio’s pick: Washington 20, Giants 14.


Ravens (-7.5) at Eagles

MDS’s take: Carson Wentz is looking better the last couple weeks than he did in his disastrous start, but the Ravens’ defense should dominate the Eagles up front and the Ravens’ running game will sit on the lead.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 20, Eagles 10.

Florio’s take: The Ravens are running roughshod over every team not from Missouri.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 34, Eagles 20.


Browns (+3.5) at Steelers

MDS’s take: I’m tempted to pick the Browns in what is one of the biggest games the franchise has played since its return in 1999. But I just think the Steelers are a little more experienced in big games and more prepared to win a game like this one.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 27, Browns 21.

Florio’s take: It’s easy to be influenced by the fact that the Browns have been the Browns and that the Steelers have been the Steelers. Set that aside; the Steelers have had a hard time with a quartet of not-so-good teams. The Browns, in contrast, have held up very well against better competition. The key will be whether Baker Mayfield can buy time against the Pittsburgh front seven, and whether the Cleveland offensive line can give Mayfield the time he needs.

Florio’s pick: Browns 21, Steelers 20.


Bears (+1.5) at Panthers

MDS’s take: The Panthers are on a roll, and I see them keeping it going, with their defense stifling Nick Foles.

MDS’s pick: Panthers 13, Bears 10.

Florio’s take: The Panthers have rewritten the rules of rebuilding. But the Bears quietly are building their own powerhouse, and the fact that Chicago is an underdog at 4-1 will get them properly lathered up to end Carolina’s unlikely three-game winning streak.

Florio’s pick: Bears 20, Panthers 17.


Lions (-3) at Jaguars

MDS’s take: The Lions’ defense has struggled to protect leads all season, and I see it happening again, with Detroit taking an early lead but Gardner Minshew leading a Jaguars comeback.

MDS’s pick: Jaguars 21, Lions 20.

Florio’s take: The Jaguars have become the ultimate tonic for a struggling team. If Detroit can’t beat Jacksonville with two weeks to prepare, they should move across the border and join the CFL.

Florio’s pick: Lions 24, Jaguars 17.


Jets (+9.5) at Dolphins

MDS’s take: The Dolphins won a blowout last week and they’ll make it two in a row this week, as Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to keep Tua Tagovailoa on the bench.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 30, Jets 13.

Florio’s take: It would be fitting for FitMagic to flip back to FitzTragic against the Jets. Meanwhile, this may be the last, best chance to the Jets to win a game before the bye week.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 24, Jets 20.


Packers (-1) at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: Sunday’s marquee matchup is a meeting of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, and I think Rodgers gets the better end of that battle in a close Packers win.

MDS’s pick: Packers 31, Buccaneers 30.

Florio’s take: Aaron Rodgers has a chance to emerge from a rare battle with the GOAT reminding Tom Brady and everyone else that, if Rodgers had been New England’s quarterback over the last 15 years, they’d possibly have 10 Super Bowl titles.

Florio’s pick: Packers 34, Buccaneers 27.


Rams (-3.5) at 49ers

MDS’s take: I have a feeling the 49ers are heading toward a long losing streak, as their injuries are catching up with them and their schedule is brutal.

MDS’s pick: Rams 28, 49ers 14.

Florio’s take: The unofficial NFC East champs face the worst team in the NFC West, at a vulnerable time.

Florio’s pick: Rams 27, 49ers 17.


Chiefs (-3.5) at Bills

MDS’s take: Both of these teams are coming off upset losses, but I trust the Chiefs more to bounce back quickly.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 21, Bills 17.

Florio’s take: Desperation quickly sets in for a pair of previously 4-0 teams. The Chiefs tend to bring it when they think they must.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 31, Bills 24.


Cardinals (-2) at Cowboys

MDS’s take: If Dak Prescott were healthy I’d pick the Cowboys, but I have my doubts about how well the Cowboys’ offense can perform with Andy Dalton at the helm.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 20, Cowboys 10.

Florio’s take: Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury, buoyed by a return to Texas, take care of a Cowboys team still reeling from the injury to Dak Prescott.

Florio’s pick: Cardinals 27, Cowboys 20.

44 responses to “PFT’s Week Six picks

  1. Patriots 31 Broncos 13 Cam will probably return and get some timing down with Edelman and Byrd. Defense forces some turnovers from Lock maybe a pick six to boot.

    Lock of the week Ravens 27 Eagles 17 Ravens will force more turnovers from Wentz and give Lamar short fields.

    Upset of the week Browns 24 Steelers 17 Browns defense and run game look scary and Mayfield is actually doing ok look for some pressure on Ben to give the Browns the win.

  2. The Browns have held up well against better quality opponents? Really? Because they’ve played two teams with a winning record and were absolutely demolished by one of them. Their other wins came against the Bengals, Washington and Dallas, already a trifecta of quality opponents.

    The Browns are pretenders. The Steelers are for real.

  3. Cowboys 28 – Cardinals 24

    With a run first approach that eats up the clock the Cowboys win this one.

  4. If Rodgers had been New England’s quarterback over the last 15 years, they’d probably have 0 Super Bowl titles.

  5. You both HAD to pick the Packers. If that isn’t bad juju I’m not sure what is. Futher, the Vikings had 2 chances to drart Rodgers and didn’t … Just think how many SB wins they’d have! Yeah, still none.

  6. Bills are gonna bounce back. It’s obvious the whole team was completely off. Vrabel had the Titans fired up and ready to dominate and Sean McDermott clearly misjudged something in their prep because that game was a blowout from the second those two teams took the field.

    The first time under McDermott that the team looked absolutely lost and defeated. I’m not saying we beat the Chiefs but the Bills are not as bad as they looked against the Titans.

    Vrabel is an elite coach who did a tremendous job under the circumstances. McDermott is an elite coach who didn’t do even a decent job preparing his team for the third Tuesday night game in history.

  7. The winners:

    Titans, Colts, Vikes, Broncos, Football Team, Ravens, Browns, Bears, Lions, Fins, Pack, Rams, Chiefs and Cowboys.

  8. The Browns over the Steelers?! In Pittsburgh, where they haven’t won since 2004?! Where 5,500 screaming Steeler fans will…wait…

  9. Vikings over Falcons – The Falcons started games strong and lost them at the end… that seems to have caused them to lose heart…

    Bears over Panthers – Bears seem to be finding ways to win against decent teams and Panthers have yet to win a meaningful game…

    Packers over Bucs – Thursday night exposed the Bucs as a iffy team… maybe they turn it around but the Packers seem to be on a role.

  10. If Rodgers had players for the Patriots they may have lost 7 games in 15 years.

    But that’s about it.

  11. The Lions’ defense has struggled to protect leads all season

    Have you see the Jags defense? They have struggled to do just about everything.

  12. If Rodgers was drafted by the Patriots, Belichick would have been traded him after a few seasons. He has a horrible attitude, he doesn’t have a humble bone in his body, he chokes in the playoffs, and he’s not a comeback king, especially not against teams with winning records. His defense gifted him with five turnovers against the Seahawks in the 2014 NFC championship game, and he still couldn’t score points. He has thrown 6 touchdowns to 7 interceptions in career NFC championship games.

  13. I see the Niners getting the most explosive RB in football, Mostert, heavily involved.

    Rams 31
    Niners 34

  14. Aaron Rodgers has a chance to emerge from a rare battle with the GOAT reminding Tom Brady and everyone else that, if Rodgers had been New England’s quarterback over the last 15 years, they’d possibly have 10 Super Bowl titles
    —-
    I know that hurt you to type…

  15. “Florio’s take: Aaron Rodgers has a chance to emerge from a rare battle with the GOAT reminding Tom Brady and everyone else that, if Rodgers had been New England’s quarterback over the last 15 years, they’d possibly have 10 Super Bowl titles.”

    Um…not sure I agree with that.

  16. Murray and company will prove to much for a reeling defense to contain. Murray goes off in this one throwing for 300YDs & 2TDs while rushing for another 90+YDs/1TD. AZ wins this one 34-24 Cardinals.

  17. In what universe have the Browns held up well against better competition than the Steelers? Three of their four wins are against the 1-2-1 Bengals, the 1-3 Football Team, and the 1-3 Cowboys. The Ravens spanked them by 32 points.

  18. The Browns are pretenders. The Steelers are for real.
    =============================================================================================
    You can’t be serious. The Browns opponents are a combined 6-9-1 but the Steelers opponents are a combined 3-15-1.

    Neither team can be deemed “for real” until they start playing against teams that have a chance of making the playoffs.

  19. Steve Erkel says:
    I see the Niners getting the most explosive RB in football, Mostert, heavily involved.
    Rams 31
    Niners 34
    ==

    Sometimes a thought in our heads can take us by surprise when we hear it back.
    Just wondering, Mr. Erkel: When you finally see your thoughts in print to you sometimes feel a tinge of regret and ask yourself, “Did I do that?”
    Good luck with that prediction.

  20. 11thEarlofProg says:
    October 15, 2020 at 1:34 pm
    “Florio’s take: Aaron Rodgers has a chance to emerge from a rare battle with the GOAT reminding Tom Brady and everyone else that, if Rodgers had been New England’s quarterback over the last 15 years, they’d possibly have 10 Super Bowl titles.”

    —–

    Or they would have 1

  21. A-Aron has won one NFC Championship and one Super Bowl his whole career and it was in a single year. Just a bit overrated. Joe Flacco did that too.

  22. Does anyone see the person who hates to be controlled playing QB for the most controlling head coach in history? Rogers has a lot of talent but New England would not have been the right fit for either of them. There can’t be 15 championships if you play there for four years. This worked out best for everyone.

  23. pkrlvr says:
    October 15, 2020 at 1:25 pm
    Aaron Rodgers has a chance to emerge from a rare battle with the GOAT reminding Tom Brady and everyone else that, if Rodgers had been New England’s quarterback over the last 15 years, they’d possibly have 10 Super Bowl titles
    —-
    I know that hurt you to type…
    ——-

    Just a click generating statement he threw out there for us.

    Rodgers would never have lasted under Belichick that long, and Brady was the better quarterback mentally.

    I say this while admiring Rodgers as one of the best I’ve ever seen.

  24. No disrespect to Rodgers, but this talk about winning multiple super bowls is just beyond dumb. Rodgers, Mahomes, Peyton, and Brady likely never would have won one super bowl if they were drafted by the 1999 Browns. Talk is so cheap these days. You can’t talk about how many super bowls they would have won and ignore how many they could have lost as well. Rodgers is lucky that he got to sit behind Brett Favre, Brady is lucky that Drew Bledsoe got injured, Mahomes was fortunate to get drafted by a team that was already good, and Peyton had one of the best receiving corps and linemen in the league throughout most of his career. He got to play in a dome, just like Brees.

    Rodgers has performed horribly in NFC championship games, period, and no one is convincing me otherwise that he would have won several rings against old school AFC defenses throughout the early and mid 2000’s. That is comedy gold. Rodgers is the reason why defenders can’t use their full body weight to sack quarterbacks nowadays without flags being thrown. Carson Palmer’s 2006 injury is also why quarterbacks can’t get sacked at their knees. If Brady had Montana’s defenses in his first five super bowls, he’d have at least eight rings right now. See what I mean? It’s always about what players could have accomplished, not what they already have. Keep an open mind.

  25. While it seems everyone is head over heels for GB does not anyone notice their record? OK 4 – 0 But who have they beat? Only one team with a winning record and as we keep getting reminded the NOLA is not a dominant team. This is the same GB team as last year mainly because they ted thompson’ed the draft yet again.

  26. arealisticpackerfan says:
    October 15, 2020 at 1:45 pm
    In what universe have the Browns held up well against better competition than the Steelers? Three of their four wins are against the 1-2-1 Bengals, the 1-3 Football Team, and the 1-3 Cowboys. The Ravens spanked them by 32 points.

    ********************

    Did you bother to check the Steelers opponents to date before replying? The margins of victory?
    smh

  27. Disagree on a few things……1) the Panthers game and 2) Washington vs the Giants. I think the Bears game ends 24-21. Can’t answer if Carolina wins, the injury bug has bitten their defense lately (Short is our for the year). The offense for Carolina is oddly underrated. Bridgewater will put up 21 points at least I feel.

    Now Washington I REALLY don’t agree with. Their defense is overrated, Chase Young has potential, but so far he’s not as impactful as Tua would’ve been if we had Tua and speaking of quarterbacks, Washington doesn’t have one. Haskins has been quit on, and Allen (who’s a backup) is starting now. Washington also has issues with the secondary and linebackers. I think Jones has his best game and beats them by 2 touchdowns

  28. The CFL already has a team called the Lions…that being said, it did have two Rough Riders for the longest time!

  29. Ravens are the best lock of the weekend. They will grab an early lead (as they usually do)and Wentz will spend the remainder of the game on his a$$.

    Go Ravens

  30. I like the Steelers defense to harass Baker all day. Browns aren’t quite ready for prime time yet.

    Steelers 27
    Browns 17

  31. is it surprising to anyone that the Raiders came into KC and beat them the game immediately after the Pats held them under their boot for 2.5 quarters at least? Pats had a good chance to win that game if they weren’t so inept this year or at least w/o Cam. Fast forward and the Raiders come in and finish the job for easily the biggest upset of the year.
    Chucky owes Bill dinner. You can bet he devoured the tapes from the NE/KC game and unlocked the code to at least slow the Chiefs down.

  32. progressiveshatethetruth2 says:
    October 15, 2020 at 3:14 pm
    Rodgers is the reason why defenders can’t use their full body weight to sack quarterbacks nowadays without flags being thrown.
    Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    Barr is the reason, not Rodgers. On the play in question, Rodgers rolled to his right, outran and avoided the rush, got rid of the ball, and veered off while decelerating and coasting. From the time of release….count it out: one one-thousand, two one-thousand, three one-thousand……Barr hits Rodgers, lifts him up, and drives him into the ground with the intent to cause bodily harm. Barr arrived late, as he always does. The rule was made because of late-hitting dirty players like Barr, not because of quarterbacks like Rodgers that are too fast for him. Maybe you can’t handle the truth.

  33. Dalton is a respectable quarterback. He did come off the bench and lead the Cowboys to an improbable comeback victory last week. He is the least of the Cowboys’ problems.

    Dallas has a decimated offensive line. The starting center is out for weeks, and both the left and right tackles are out for the season, as is the starting quarterback. Where is the running game?

    Elliott did not impress against the Giants, but that’s not the problem. The defense is.

    New York came into the game averaging 12 points. They more than doubled that in three quarters against this defense. Dallas only won by luck, and maybe emotion. Still, for the Giants to put up that many points is troubling.

    I think Dalton can lead this offense and score points, but this defense doesn’t leave him much room for error. And Elliott is a joke of a running back, an expensive joke.

    So, I’ll take the Cardinals to win this game. They are the better organized, less injury-plagued team. I don’t predict scores–never predict scores in a football game. 1 point on a scoreboard can win a game. Could be a touchdown, a field goal, a two-point conversion, you never know. Football is unpredictable–the ball is shaped funny and its bounce is beyond knowing. All I’m saying, is that once the ball is in the air or on the ground, it’s anybody’s ball. Possession determines the game.

    Points on the scoreboard are all that matter. Of course there are bad calls made by referees. There are also bad plays called by coaches. And bad plays made by players. It’s football.

    I’ll take Cardinals over Cowboys. But I will admit that Dallas might surprise.

  34. Calvin Hobbes says:
    October 15, 2020 at 3:20 pm
    I too think the GOAT will make one more play than Brady. Packers 34 Buccaneers 31

    29 42 Rate This
    —————————————–

    I had to read your sentence multiple times before understanding what you are saying.

    My brain: “What? How will the GOAT Tom Brady make one more play and lose? How can he make one more play then himself?”

    Then I realized you are saying the GOAT is Rodgers

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