NFL Week 10 2020 picks

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As we are learning the hard way, it’s a lot harder to pick against the spread than to pick straight up.

Last week, MDS and I both went 10-4 without taking the spread into account. With the spread, I was 6-8. He was, for the second straight week, 3-11.

For the year, I’m now leading straight up, 85-50 vs. 83-52. Against the spread, I’m at 63-66-3. MDS is strug-uh-ling at 51-80-2.

This week, we disagree on four games. Scroll away for the picks and scores.

Colts (even) at Titans

MDS’s take: This is a great Thursday night game, with the winner becoming the favorite to win the AFC South. The Colts’ defense is excellent, but I think Ryan Tannehill can have a strong game against them.

MDS’s pick: Titans 21, Colts 20.

Florio’s take: Both teams are flawed. The Titans currently are less flawed. 

Florio’s pick: Titans 27, Colts 20.

Texans (+3) at Browns

MDS’s take: The Browns are playoff contenders halfway through the season, while the Texans are going nowhere. Cleveland will win big.

MDS’s pick: Browns 34, Texans 17.

Florio’s take: The Texans are in danger of becoming what the Browns used to be.

Florio’s pick: Browns 27, Texans 17.

Washington (+3.5) at Lions

MDS’s take: It’s going to be a long second half of the season for Washington, while the Lions are still clinging to slim playoff hopes. Detroit will take this one easily.

MDS’s pick: Lions 28, Washington 17.

Florio’s take: With a full week to practice, Alex Smith could get back to being Alex Smith again, nearly two years to the day after suffering a badly broken leg.

Florio’s pick: Washington 23, Lions 20.

Jaguars (+13.5) at Packers

MDS’s take: Jake Luton vs. Aaron Rodgers. Not a tough game to pick.

MDS’s pick: Packers 37, Jaguars 13.

Florio’s take: Viewer discretion is advised.

Florio’s pick: Packers 44, Jaguars 20.

Eagles (-3.5) at Giants

MDS’s take: I like the way the Giants have been playing in recent weeks, but I think over the second half of the season we’re going to see the Eagles get some separation in the NFC East.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 28, Giants 24.

Florio’s take: Would I be surprised that Brett Favre said what he said about Carson Wentz to light a little fire under Wentz, as a favor to Doug Pederson? No, not at all.

Florio’s pick: Eagles 30, Giants 23.

Buccaneers (-5.5) at Panthers

MDS’s take: The Buccaneers will bounce back from an ugly loss to the Saints and re-establish themselves as one of the NFC’s top teams.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Panthers 20.

Florio’s take: The Panthers aren’t as bad as they were supposed to be, but it’s not a good idea to draw the Bucs in a bounce-back game.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 28, Panthers 17.

Broncos (+5) at Raiders

MDS’s take: The Raiders are making a push for the playoffs, and they’ll continue to march toward a wild card spot with a win over the Broncos.

MDS’s pick: Raiders 27, Broncos 24.

Florio’s take: If they don’t peek past the Broncos to the rematch with the Chiefs, the Raiders will be fine.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 28, Broncos 20.

Chargers (+2.5) at Dolphins

MDS’s take: In the battle of Justin Herbert vs. Tua Tagovailoa, I like the Dolphins to win and make it three in a row since making their quarterback switch.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 23, Chargers 20.

Florio’s take: The Chargers are too good to be 2-6. The Dolphins have been overachieving. It’s time for a two-way correction.

Florio’s pick: Chargers 31, Dolphins 21.

Bills (+2) at Cardinals

MDS’s take: One of the best games of the day is in Arizona, where two exciting offenses square off. I like Kyler Murray to make a few more plays with his legs than Josh Allen does, and that will be the difference.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 31, Bills 30.

Florio’s take: This game deserves a national platform, and these two teams could eventually meet in a Super Bowl.

Florio’s pick: Cardinals 27, Bills 24.

Seahawks (+1.5) at Rams

MDS’s take: The Seahawks’ defense needs a lot of work, but I think Russell Wilson can make enough plays on his own to lead the Seahawks to a high-scoring win.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 35, Rams 31.

Florio’s take: Seattle needs to get back on the right track, quickly. It won’t be easy or pretty, but it should be exciting.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 31, Rams 28.

49ers (+9.5) at Saints

MDS’s take: The Saints are playing their best football right now, while the 49ers’ injuries are too severe to overcome.

MDS’s pick: Saints 31, 49ers 20.

Florio’s take: The Saints will not go easy on a team that is missing so many great players.

Florio’s pick: Saints 34, 49ers 17.

Bengals (+7.5) at Steelers

MDS’s take: Assuming Ben Roethlisberger is cleared to play, this should be an easy win for the Steelers. And I’d take Pittsburgh even with Mason Rudolph.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 30, Bengals 20.

Florio’s take: It’s time. There have been too many close wins for Pittsburgh. And Joe Burrow is determined to will his team into fringe of the the playoff chase.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 27, Steelers 24.

Ravens (-7) at Patriots

MDS’s take: The Patriots barely beat a terrible Jets team on Monday night. They’re not going to have much luck against one of the best teams in the league.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 28, Patriots 17.

Florio’s take: The Ravens are not taking the Patriots lightly. Which means that the Ravens will not find a way to lose this one.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 24, Patriots 20.

Vikings (-2.5) at Bears

MDS’s take: It’s hard to believe how different both of these teams look than they did a few weeks ago. The Bears’ season is cratering, while the Vikings are still hoping for a late-season push to the playoffs. Minnesota gets an important division win.

MDS’s pick: Vikings 24, Bears 20.

Florio’s take: The Vikings have had a rough time in Chicago in recent years, and the organization still carries the scars from their playoff loss to Nick Foles. If the Bears can bottle up Dalvin Cook like they did last year at Soldier Field, the passing game can’t compensate.

Florio’s pick: Bears 19, Vikings 16.

38 responses to “NFL Week 10 2020 picks

  1. Viewer discretion may be advised for Jags @ The Packers, but I’ll be enjoying every second.

    I gotta remember to get the ribs on the Broil King early for the noon kickoff. Ribs take a little time. Gonna have about 8 people “socially distanced” in the music/sports cave for the game.


  2. Vikings lost to Chase Daniels led Chicago Bears last year. Here comes Nick Foles best game of the year.

  3. Raggard says:
    November 12, 2020 at 1:37 pm
    I don’t understand your distain for the Dolphins but once again they will prove you wrong.
    Florio couldn’t like the Fins to save his life….goes back to Bullygate. Even though Fins have Black GM and HC, he’ll never like the Dolphins. But what he said about Chargers vs.Dolphins is true–Chargers ARE better than 2-6 and Dolphins ARE over achieving–but still, I’m picking Fins here….Fins remember rout by Chargers last year and want revenge, and Chargers almost never win in Miami. Herbert’s a fine QB, but still…Tua will find a way and Ogbah will also “find a way…” Only way Fins lose is if they can’t replace Prestin Williams well enough…you know Parker’s gonna be triple-teamed.

  4. Florio has his biases, including anti-Steelers (picked the Browns to win in Pittsburgh, now the Bengals?), but he is at least respectable as a handicapper. MDS is horrific 51-80-2 ATS. Bettors could have made a killing betting the opposite of MDS.

  5. MDS has picked the Bills to win seven weeks thus far, and Florio five. So not too bad. There was this gem from week one which looks beyond laughable at this point: “This is a big season for the Jets to find out what they have in Sam Darnold and the Bills to find out what they have in Josh Allen. In the long term I think Darnold will have the better career”

  6. ddarlak says:
    November 12, 2020 at 2:08 pm

    when will you learn, you pick against the BILLS every week…


    Only way Bills make it to the SB is if Mahomes is injured, and Pitt/Ravens implode. Allen is a year away from being “that” guy. He has moments of greatness followed by glimpses of who he has been and still is. You saw it against KC, you saw it against Titans and the Jets too ..

    But go ahead and dream. If I lived in Buffalo I would be dreaming too

  7. Last week, MDS and I both went 10-4 without taking the spread into account. With the spread, I was 6-8. He was, for the second straight week, 3-11.

    For the year, I’m now leading straight up, 85-50 vs. 83-52. Against the spread, I’m at 63-66-3. MDS is strug-uh-ling at 51-80-2.

    Hope you guys don’t actually bet money

  8. Florio’s pick: Bengals 27, Steelers 24. —- Consider yourself on permanent ignore. GO STEELERS!

  9. Vikes may traditionally have trouble at Soldier Field, but they specifically have trouble against dominant DTs supported by mobile LBs. The Bears have at least one of each of those. I don’t expect the Vikes to win, but I have admittedly been beaten down by this strange season.

  10. Bucs over Panthers – the bucs only seem to struggle in night game, which is strange, but play well otherwise… the Panthers still need time and players.

    Saints over 49ers – The Saints are starting to look like what we expected and the 49es, well, aren’t they basically playing 2nd string with so many players out?

  11. The tough assignment is watching the Bears/Vikings game on Monday night for the full 60 minutes. 2 going nowhere teams battling tooth and claw to get in line behind the Packers.

  12. Packers-Jaguars will be an even bigger blowout than the final score indicates with the Jags scoring a TD or two in garbage time against the Pack’s 2nd string defense. Packers 45 Jaguars 17

  13. I think the colts might surprise some people tonight and pull out the W. And i can honestly see the Seahawks losing and getting a third loss this weekend.

  14. As a Browns fan, I am surprised both picked the Texans to only score 17. Cleveland should win, but Watson will hang at least 24 on that defense.

  15. The Bears are so awful that Bears fans are demanding the reinstatement of Mitchell Trubisky as starter.

  16. It is a big mistake to bet against the Bills and Dolphins. The days of having no talent rosters, zero depth and journeyman QB’s is over. If Fitzpatrick was not on the roster, the Dolphins would be the youngest team in the NFL and with a healthy Cap and 5 Picks in the first 3 rounds again next year; plenty of maneuver room to get even better. They are only a few months into their rebuild and look at how well they are doing with the 2nd toughest Schedule. Did I mention either McDermott or Flores WILL be Coach of the Year?

  17. Not sure why Florio hates the Mighty Mighty Miami Dolphins. They will prove him wrong once again.

    Dolphins roll over the Chargers !!!!!

  18. There was a time when the thought of the Ravens going to Foxboro for a Sunday night game would have given me heart palpitations. Not any longer. Look for the Ravens to dismantle the Pats.

    Ravens 38
    Pats 14

  19. When watching the Bears play and other team scores a field goal it feels like the lead is insurmountable.

  20. In the next four weeks, the Chargers are in the unusual position of playing consecutive games all against the AFC East. The Fins, followed by the Jets, then Buffalo, and finally the Patriots. Hopefully, we catch them looking ahead next week for when they play the Jets.

    That was a joke.

  21. Ravens 31 Patriots 24 Closer game than expected but I can’t see the Pats defense stopping Jackson and the run game.

    Lock of the week Bucs 34 Panthers 21 Brady will be fired up after last week.

    Upset of the week Bills over Cardinals 21 to 17 an ugly defensive slugfest with Allen running it in to clinch the game.

  22. I thought the ravens wouldn’t be able to find a way to lose against the pats? If the ravens are one of the best teams in the league, the pats must be pretty good.

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