NFL Week 11 picks

Getty Images

My two-game lead has been squandered.

A pathetic 6-8 performance last week in the straight-up category, coupled with MDS going 9-5, gives MDS a one-game edge through 10 weeks. He also picked up three games against the spread, 7-6-1 vs. 4-9-1.

MDS is now 92-57, and I’m 91-58. Against the spread, I’m still holding a decent lead, at 67-75-4. MDS is 58-86-2.

We disagree on six games this week. For all of the picks, scroll away.

Cardinals (+3) at Seahawks

MDS’s take: The NFC West race is wide open, and that makes this week’s Thursday night game a huge one. I still view the Seahawks as the favorites, and they’ll take a big step toward another division title with a win.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 35, Cardinals 30.

Florio’s take: The Seattle spirit remains willing. The flesh has become increasingly weak. Arizona won at the home of the 12th man last year, when fans were present. This year, it will be even easier to pull it off. Not that it’s ever easy.

Florio’s pick: Cardinals 34, Seahawks 31.


Eagles (+3.5) at Browns

MDS’s take: The Browns still have a good chance at an AFC wild card berth, and they’ll get another step closer with a win over an Eagles team that has looked awful.

MDS’s pick: Browns 24, Eagles 23.

Florio’s take: The team that got ripped for not picking Carson Wentz is now very happy it didn’t.

Florio’s pick: Browns 27, Eagles 20.


Falcons (+5) at Saints

MDS’s take: It would help to know for sure who’s starting at quarterback for the Saints, but whether it’s Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill, I expect the Saints’ strong defense to lead them to a win.

MDS’s pick: Saints 17, Falcons 10.

Florio’s take: Sean Payton loves a good challenge. He has several of them this week, with Drew Brees out.

Florio’s pick: Saints 28, Falcons 20.


Bengals (+1) at Washington

MDS’s take: I liked what I saw from Alex Smith in his first start in almost two years, and this week I think he’ll get his first win in more than two years.

MDS’s pick: Washington 20, Bengals 13.

Florio’s take: The Bengals aren’t as good as the team that beat the Titans, and the Bengals aren’t as bad as the team that was blown out by the Steelers. They’re good enough to outscore Washington, however, thanks to Joe Burrow.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 24, Washington 20.


Lions (+1.5) at Panthers

MDS’s take: The Lions are sneaking into the NFC playoff discussion, and they’ll catch a break against a banged-up Panthers team.

MDS’s pick: Lions 24, Panthers 16.

Florio’s take: Carolina plays better than their 3-7 record would suggest. The Lions often play worse than 4-5 implies. With Teddy Bridgewater on track to play, the Panthers should break their losing streak and make a run at escaping the NFC South basement.

Florio’s pick: Panthers 24, Lions 20.


Steelers (-10) at Jaguars

MDS’s take: Mike Tomlin is claiming the Jaguars represent a tough test for the Steelers, but the reality is Pittsburgh will cruise against an overmatched opponent.

MDS’s pick: Steelers 35, Jaguars 17.

Florio’s take: The Jaguars have bedeviled Pittsburgh enough times over the years to ensure that the Steelers will take a baseball bat to a potential trap game.

Florio’s pick: Steelers 31, Jaguars 13.


Titans (+6.5) at Ravens

MDS’s take: The Ravens’ offense is struggling this season, but the Titans’ defense is struggling too, and I expect Lamar Jackson to have one of his better games in a Baltimore win.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 28, Titans 20.

Florio’s take: Both teams are going in the wrong direction. The Ravens have more overall talent, giving them the better chance to turn it around.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 24, Titans 17.


Patriots (-2) at Texans

MDS’s take: Don’t count the Patriots out of the playoff race just yet. They shouldn’t have too much trouble against a bad Texans team.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 27, Texans 17.

Florio’s take: New England may not make it to the playoffs, but the road won’t end against an overmatched Houston team.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 23, Texans 14.


Dolphins (-3) at Broncos

MDS’s take: Tua Tagovailoa can become the first rookie quarterback since Ben Roethlisberger to win his first four starts, and I expect him to do just that.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 28, Broncos 14.

Florio’s take: Miami is surging. Denver is sinking.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 24, Broncos 13.


Jets (+8.5) at Chargers

MDS’s take: Justin Herbert is having a strong rookie season, but that isn’t resulting in many wins. That will change against the Jets.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 33, Jets 17.

Florio’s take: This could be the Jets’ last, best chance to get a win through the end of the season, if not longer.

Florio’s pick: Jets 24, Chargers 21.


Packers (+2) at Colts

MDS’s take: Aaron Rodgers is going to have a tough time against the Colts’ excellent defense, and Indianapolis will continue to show that it’s a sneaky Super Bowl contender.

MDS’s pick: Colts 20, Packers 16.

Florio’s take: One of these weeks, Green Bay will play a complete game, or something close to it.

Florio’s pick: Packers 27, Colts 20.


Cowboys (+7) at Vikings

MDS’s take: The Vikings are making a strong push to get back into playoff contention after their disappointing start, and with an easy schedule they’ve got a good chance.

MDS’s pick: Vikings 30, Cowboys 14.

Florio’s take: All things considered, America’s Team currently is performing roughly as well as the country for which it’s named.

Florio’s pick: Vikings 31, Cowboys 20.


Chiefs (-7) at Raiders

MDS’s take: The Raiders could make a huge statement in the AFC playoff race by completing a season sweep of the Chiefs. But I can’t see it happening. Kansas City will be ready to play.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 28, Raiders 24.

Florio’s take: Andy Reid rarely loses with two weeks to prepare. The Chiefs rarely lose with their full focus and attention directed to their opponent.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 34, Raiders 21.


Rams (+4) at Buccaneers

MDS’s take: This is a big one between two NFC playoff contenders, and I like the Buccaneers to keep pace with the Saints in the NFC South, while the Rams fall back a game in the NFC West.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Rams 17.

Florio’s take: The Bucs have a prime-time problem, and a couple of night practices won’t change that — not with a great team coming to town.

Florio’s pick: Rams 27, Buccaneers 23.

34 responses to “NFL Week 11 picks

  1. The winner of tonight’s game will likely determine the winner of the NFC West. It will be a must watch game.

  2. I like how, for a change, Florio and MDS disagreed on many picks. It made reading the article a lot more interesting, to see each person’s reasoning, etc.

  3. “Florio’s take: All things considered, America’s Team currently is performing roughly as well as the country for which it’s named.”

    There is a fair amount of truth in that statement.
    America is in a mess. The Cowboys are a mess.

  4. KC doesn’t stand a chance in Vegas! The ground and pound of the best offensive line (Raiders) in the league will be in full effect.

  5. If we’ve learned one thing this season, it’s that nothing is guaranteed when picking these games. We’ve seen good teams get crushed by other good teams and lousy teams play good teams down to the final gun.
    In the Cards / Seahawks game, I think the only way the Seahawks win is by Russell Wilson getting his team out to a big lead and making the Cards more one dimensional.
    I think there are 3 sure bets this week — the Steelers over the Jags, the Dolphins over the Broncos, and the Vikings over the Cowboys. I think KC will handle the Raiders fairly easily as well.
    The rest of the games could go either way, in my opinion.

  6. Unfortunately for America, Florio is absolutely right. (More of a mess than the Pokes even).

    But why he picked the Jets to win in LA is…. hmmmmmmmm. Really, the only possibility for the Jets to go 1-15 is either to beat Miami in NY (even though I just can’t see this Fins team letting down vs. Jets….against Bengals maybe the week after), or against Pats (because I just see Pats letting down vs. Jets). Really it depends on just how sick Jets players are of losing, and who is the QB.

  7. Finally a Thursday Night game I really want to see. Rematch between Wilson and Wilson 2.0!

    I agree with almost everything you said except Wilson 2.0. He’s Lamar 2.0 at best.

  8. I’m a huge Bucs fan but the Rams are going to win. Any team that can rush the passer beats the Bucs, and the Rams stone cold stopped Russell Wilson last week.

    I hope I’m wrong.

  9. Falcons over Saints – The main source of the Saints success is Brees and their replacements aren’t even close to Brees caliber… The Falcons normally play well last half of the season…

    Lions over Panthers – both play good and bad so neither are steady but Teddy isn’t 100% and even if he were, I’m not sure they could beat the Lions.

    Rams over Bucs – Noon or evening I would say Bucs are better but for an odd reason the Bucs have flopped at night..

  10. smokingafatone says:
    November 19, 2020 at 12:23 pm
    3 good prime time games for a change give me the Seahawks , Chiefs. And the RAMS
    —————————————————
    Assume you’re picking them to lose right?

  11. “The winner of tonight’s game will likely determine the winner of the NFC West. It will be a must watch game.”

    —————-

    I think you mean who comes second in the NFC West. The Rams looked a tier above the Seahawks last week.

    The Cards, while definitely on the rise, still have to beat Aaron Donald and that Rams defence. Cards vs the Rams is the one that will determine the division, but am backing the Rams.

  12. Cardinals (+3) at Seahawks

    MDS’s take: The NFC West race is wide open, and that makes this week’s Thursday night game a huge one. I still view the Seahawks as the favorites, and they’ll take a big step toward another division title with a win.

    MDS’s pick: Seahawks 35, Cardinals 30>>>

    Never seen a team with HISTORICALLY bad defense get so much love from the media.
    Russ only has so much propane in the tank to “cook” with, as we’ve seen of late.

    After the Cardinals win this game, the tune will change.

  13. Saints games are the annual Superbowl for the Falcons. If they can’t win it with Brees out, another failure of a season for them.

  14. Naterade says:
    November 19, 2020 at 12:23 pm
    Finally a Thursday Night game I really want to see. Rematch between Wilson and Wilson 2.0!

    I agree with almost everything you said except Wilson 2.0. He’s Lamar 2.0 at best.
    ================================

    Are you kidding me? Kyler Murray is much more compareable to Russell Wilson as a player except Murray’s ceiling is much higher than Russell Wilson’s ceiling is. Early on in Wilson’s career he was a game manager who won behind an elite run game and playing elite defense, in Arizona Murray already runs that entire offense and is the leader of that team. In just his 2nd season Murray is a legit MVP caliber player, he’s a better passer than Russ was this early in his career and Murray is a much better athlete than Wilson was on pace for 1000+ yds rushing n 15-16 TDs rushing to go with 4200-4300YDs passing and 32+ TDs completing close to 70% of his passes.

    Murrays game is much more comparable to Wilsons game as a QB Murray is the upgraded version as he is faster, faster/quicker in a confined space with 4.30 speed and already shown to be one of the best natural passers in the NFL in just his 2nd season in the league making a few handful of throws over his 2yr career other QB’s just dont make except for an except few. Lamar Jacksons passing game is no where near on Murray’s level

  15. I don’t see the Packers letting their guard down against the Colts like they did against the Jaguars last week. Packers 31 Colts 21

  16. Jags shock the world. Fantasy owners flock to the waiver wire to pick up Luke Jaton, I mean Jake Luton.

  17. “All things considered, America’s Team currently is performing roughly as well as the country for which it’s named.”

    That wins the internet for today.

  18. @ tyelee:
    Per Football Outsiders…
    “Here are Jameis Winston’s statistics versus the Falcons in his career: nine games, 277.7 yards per game, 25 touchdowns, nine interceptions, a 66.0% completion rate, 8.7 yards per attempt, 11 sacks, 35 rushes for 166 yards and two touchdowns, an efficiency rating of 109.1.

    Those are Winston’s best numbers against any opponent he has regularly faced. He threw just nine touchdowns but 14 interceptions in nine games against the Panthers, with 32 sacks. He completed just 57.5% of his passes with 11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and 24 sacks in nine games against the Saints. Keep in mind that the Falcons were a Super Bowl team in one of those years and a playoff team in another, so while their defense was never spectacular, Winston consistently put up solid numbers against a competitive opponent.”
    I’ll take your Falcons over Saints bet!

  19. Considering the games of the other division teams this week, the Giants could actually gain some steam without taking a snap Sunday…

  20. The Raiders dominated the cheese there are a better team than the Chiefs so once again all the experts will be wrong. Look Who’s Talking…. The same people who are all 100% wrong the last time.

  21. Are you kidding me? Kyler Murray is much more compareable to Russell Wilson as a player except Murray’s ceiling is much higher than Russell Wilson’s ceiling is. Early on in Wilson’s career he was a game manager who won behind an elite run game and playing elite defense, in Arizona Murray already runs that entire offense and is the leader of that team. In just his 2nd season Murray is a legit MVP caliber player, he’s a better passer than Russ was this early in his career and Murray is a much better athlete than Wilson was on pace for 1000+ yds rushing n 15-16 TDs rushing to go with 4200-4300YDs passing and 32+ TDs completing close to 70% of his passes.

    Murrays game is much more comparable to Wilsons game as a QB Murray is the upgraded version as he is faster, faster/quicker in a confined space with 4.30 speed and already shown to be one of the best natural passers in the NFL in just his 2nd season in the league making a few handful of throws over his 2yr career other QB’s just dont make except for an except few. Lamar Jacksons passing game is no where near on Murray’s level

    Russell Wilson is the second highest rated passer in history. Murray is a slightly faster Lamar Jackson. Wilson is a passer first and runner second. Murray is still a runner who can throw slightly better than Jackson.

  22. I gotta say, there’s one or two upsets every week that nobody sees coming. I’m thinking that this weeks upset is going to be Cowboys over Vikings. Both teams are due for a little correction.

  23. Really, reading about the Vikings soft schedule right when they are heading into Dallas must give Cowboys fans a Texas-size case of heartburn.

  24. That Raider-Chiefs game may not even happen. If the defense cannot even practice, kind of hard to see them bounce back at 10 am on Sunday and be ready to go in 3 hours.

  25. Patriots 30 Texans 13 Cam will continue building chemistry with Meyers and the defense feasts on the festering corpse that is the Texans O Line.

    Lock of the week Ravens beat Titans 24 to 14 Lamar will come out angry and hot to start off the game allowing the Ravens a nice win.

    Upset of the week Falcons beat Saints 27 to 20 I think Jameis returns to his 2019 form and blows the game for the Saints. Matt Ryan to Julio Jones will carve up the Saints D.

  26. Cardinals
    Browns
    Falcons
    Bengals
    Lions
    Jaguars
    Titans
    Texans
    Dolphins
    Chargers
    Colts
    Vikings
    Chiefs
    Rams

  27. Naterade says:
    November 19, 2020 at 3:44 pm
    Are you kidding me? Kyler Murray is much more compareable to Russell Wilson as a player except Murray’s ceiling is much higher than Russell Wilson’s ceiling is. Early on in Wilson’s career he was a game manager who won behind an elite run game and playing elite defense, in Arizona Murray already runs that entire offense and is the leader of that team. In just his 2nd season Murray is a legit MVP caliber player, he’s a better passer than Russ was this early in his career and Murray is a much better athlete than Wilson was on pace for 1000+ yds rushing n 15-16 TDs rushing to go with 4200-4300YDs passing and 32+ TDs completing close to 70% of his passes.

    Murrays game is much more comparable to Wilsons game as a QB Murray is the upgraded version as he is faster, faster/quicker in a confined space with 4.30 speed and already shown to be one of the best natural passers in the NFL in just his 2nd season in the league making a few handful of throws over his 2yr career other QB’s just dont make except for an except few. Lamar Jacksons passing game is no where near on Murray’s level

    Russell Wilson is the second highest rated passer in history. Murray is a slightly faster Lamar Jackson. Wilson is a passer first and runner second. Murray is still a runner who can throw slightly better than Jackson.

    ——————————-
    Where to start. Do you remember the Running backs Russell had at the beginning of his career? How about the receivers? You are comparing a passing team, to a run heavy team. Russell will be in the Hall of fame, so if Kyler has a higher ceiling, you are saying he is also, a Hall of famer. He already got a bum shoulder last night from barely being taken down. Pump the brakes.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to leave a comment. Not a member? Register now!

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.