MVP becomes a two-man race, with one potential caveat

NFL: OCT 27 Packers at Chiefs
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The odds show that the MVP race after 14 weeks has focused on a pair of players: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Via PointsBet, Mahomes continues to be the favorite. Rodgers, however, continues to gain ground.

Sunday’s three-interception performance has dropped Mahomes from -500 to -286. Rodgers has, in contract, seen his odds improve from +460 to +185.

The final vote could be influenced by whether one team gets the No. 1 seed in its conference and the other doesn’t. However, both currently are on track for a bye week.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen remains next on the list at +1600, with Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson at +1800.

At this point, the player with the most intriguing chance to disrupt the Mahomes-Rodgers duel is Titans running back Derrick Henry. He currently has long odds of +10000. But with 1,532 rushing yards and a propensity to rack up 200-yard games, Henry has an outside chance to make a late run at the single-season rushing record of 2,105, held by Hall of Famer Eric Dickerson.

Henry needs 191 per game over the next three to get to 2,105. While unlikely, Henry has shown he can get and stay home. With upcoming games against the Lions, Packers, and Texans, it’s not crazy to see it happening.

If it does, it wouldn’t be crazy to end up cashing in a $100 ticket for $10,000.

44 responses to “MVP becomes a two-man race, with one potential caveat

  1. Well Rodgers has Pat beaten in every stat catagory except yardage. And ask Dak or Jameais about how much yardage means in the end – nothing. Being that they are both conference leaders, I see it as a runaway for Rodgers.

  2. Kelse and Tyrik Hill’s run after catch are making Mahomes look good. His 3 picks not so much.

  3. Josh Allen is having a good year but I’d not give him the MVP.
    Neither would I give it to Henry who is also having a good year.
    Its Russell Wilson or Pat Mahomes.

  4. I am a Packer fan and I would vote for Aaron Donald. No one is better at his job in the NFL than him and he is leading that team into the playoffs. If it is just going to be a QB award than call it that so fans can realize that it is actually a team game.

  5. If the Titans have something to play for week 17 Henry gets to 2000 yards playing those woeful defenses!

  6. It will probably go to Mahomes but the last time he won, they didnt go all the way.

    The Titans dont need to run Henry into the ground but probably wont get to rest him, needing at least two wins in the next three games to get the division. A tough task with the Colts playing well.

  7. hope Rodgers gets it. Mahomes throwing to WIDE OPEN dudes all day. He uses his big arm (credit to him there), stands WAY back from the line of scrimmage, and scrambles until the next guy comes WIDE OPEN. Thats his game. When will Mahomes drop it in the bucket to someone in tight coverage down the sideline? Has he ever connected on a back shoulder? Will Kelce ever run a seam route?… instead of the routes he runs now: run a little and stop to sit WIDE OPEN in a zone. It’s actually made Pat boring to watch.

  8. I am a Vikings fan and have to say Rodgers is playing as good as I have ever seen him play. Kudos to him and the Packers, they have earned both of the last year NFC North Titles on the field.

  9. Well Rodgers has Pat beaten in every stat catagory except yardage. And ask Dak or Jameais about how much yardage means in the end – nothing. Being that they are both conference leaders, I see it as a runaway for Rodgers.

    Two categories, you forgot the most important stat category: Wins and Losses

  10. If it comes down to these two choices,I would have to go with Aaron Rodgers. Not that Mahomes isn’t awesome,but he’s not looked like himself these past few games.

  11. If Mahomes is healthy he’s the MVP–without question. Nobody carries a team like he does. Simple question: If you are the GM of an expansion team and you could pick any one player from the league to build your team around, who would that be? If you don’t say Mahomes, you don’t know football. He’s the MVP.

  12. fans are getting very tired of this being the “best QB award.” Aaron Donald, King Henry, Davante Adams…so many deserving non-quarterbacks that will never receive their full due from the people who get to make these decisions. To date, I’d give the award to Henry in a landslide. The Chiefs would easily win 10 or 11 with an average quarterback, the Titans would be bottom feeders without Henry.

  13. Rodgers (Adams, Jones, Top o-line) and Mahomes (Kelce, Hill) both have tons of talent around them. To me, Aaron Donald and Derrick Henry are both more deserving.

  14. I like the Aaron Donald gor MVP but, I think if Derrick Henry get 2,000. He’s the MVP. Also, Dalvin Cook isn’t the MVP but he deserves s mention. As does Travis Kelce. But MVP’s should be renamed MV’QB’ because it’s an award for QBs unless a player (RB) has a historic year. What about Defensive players, or WRs? When a WR catches 149 balls (M.Thomas 2019) the QB gets the credit..but no love for the WR for making him look good (at least better)
    Antonio’s Brown 136
    Marvin Harrison 143
    Julio Jones 136.

  15. Wilson was out of the running three weeks ago. Mahomes has a better supporting cast. It’s Rodgers in a runaway.

  16. …and that’s why the NFL needs to have the football equivalent of the Cy Young award for QBs, and award the MVP to a non-QB. Otherwise, it’s almost always going to go to a QB.

  17. Teams can survive, replace, and win without their running back or defensive number 1. But 9 times out of 10 when the elite qb goes down it changes the entire team. Thats why its a qb dominated award.

  18. Not a Green Bay fan, but honestly Rogers has performed with far less weapons. The Chiefs offense is loaded, while Packers are not. I can’t think of one good target besides Adams.

  19. The MVP is Josh Allen.

    Said as a Ravens fan. He has improved SO MUCH, and just beat the Steelers as well. The Bills are facing some quality competition and looking good while doing it.

    Mahommes is an easy vanilla pick, but the talent around him is ridiculous.

    I dont see it with Rodgers.

  20. This is the same offensive weapons Alex Smith had except He is using 3rd Nd 4th string lineman. Can you see the difference between a good Qb and Patrick and please done tell me Rodgers does not have the weapons. please..

  21. Arod has better numbers with fewer weapons than Mahomes. I think it should go to him but there is a lot of football left. The final 3 weeks should make it obvious.

  22. Aaron/GB has more passing TD’s this year than they have punts all year.

    That blows my mind.

    Brady might set the single season passing TD record for Tampa Bay with 34 TD’s – Aaron has 5 seasons with 35+

    Not an Aaron v TB thing – but realize he has 5 seasons that would all be record seasons for entire franchises. A franchise that DOES have a SB win.

  23. hogbuster7 says:

    December 14, 2020 at 3:27 pm

    Arod has better numbers with fewer weapons than Mahomes. I think it should go to him but there is a lot of football left. The final 3 weeks should make it obvious.

    really… Name these weapons. Davante Adam’s isnt lame. Maybe not up to speed with Hill but very productive.

    Robert Tonyan.. yes Kelce is having a heck of. year but no one is looking at Tonyan without see superstar potential.

    Marquez Valdes scantling is better than DeMarcus robinson and m. hardmon.

    Aaron jones and Jamal William’s are just as good as ceh and bell.

    I am not saying Rodgers isnt worth it but please dont act like Mahomes is playing with so much more talent. that is a joke.

  24. If a non-QB were a legit possibility, Travis Kelce has to be in the conversation. Having an all world season (1250YDS/9TDs so far) and currently leading the NFL in receiving yardage.

  25. Count me among the others that think QB’s should be split into their own category. Until then it’s between mahomes and rodgers. I give the slight nod to rodgers with 3 games left.

  26. ariani1985 says:
    December 14, 2020 at 12:26 pm
    Notice Mahomes is getting 50 yard TDs while over half of Rogers RDs are from the 1 yard line?

    Except Rodgers has the most 40+ yard passes in the league, so if you’re trying to imply Rodgers is dinking and dunking his way down the field, you’re objectively wrong. Also, the ability to get deep ball TDs has a lot more to do with receiver talent and YAC, which obviously Mahomes is able to rely on, considering he has top tier receivers, one of the best TEs in the game, an adequate O-line and is overall surrounded with immense talent.

    Rodgers has: Davante Adams. His #2 receiver doesn’t even have half the yards of Mahomes’ #2. His O-line is also extremely overrated, as Rodgers has to bail from the pocket every other play to extend it long enough for receivers to get open, though I’ll grant Mahomes has the same play style.

    Mahomes is excellent, and will be one of the best QBs in the league for years to come. Further, a lot can change over the next 3 weeks, so the race isn’t decided yet. But Rodgers is winning in almost every category, with significantly less talent around him. At this precise moment, I don’t see a logical argument for Mahomes leading the race.

  27. Rodgers is phenomenal, but MVP’s shouldn’t have a 16/35 160 0/2 stat line in what was at the time considered a big game. Mahomes against that same defense 37/49 462 3/0. Mahomes worst game of the season was 393 2/3, he doesn’t have Rodgers kinda bad days.

  28. I really think each of Davante Adams, Travis Kelce and Derrick Henry deserve strong consideration. Aaron Donald arguably does too, but he should already be a lock for DPOY I’d imagine.

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