Jaguars likely to land No. 1 pick, draft Trevor Lawrence, thanks to easier schedule

ACC Championship - Clemson v Notre Dame
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The Jaguars are poised to pick first in the 2021 NFL draft and get Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who is widely regarded not only as the best prospect playing college football this season, but one of the handful of elite prospects of the last decade.

Thanks to the Jets winning yesterday, both the Jets and Jaguars are 1-13, tied for the worst record in the NFL. But the Jaguars are favored to end up with the first overall pick because of the first tiebreaker: Strength of schedule.

If two teams finish with the same record, the NFL gives the higher pick to the team that played the easier schedule. The thinking is a team that went 1-15 against an easy schedule is a worse team than a team that went 1-15 against a hard schedule.

The Jaguars have the strength of schedule tiebreaker because their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .549, while the Jets’ opponents have a combined winning percentage of .602. With only two weeks left in the season, the Jaguars’ strength of schedule isn’t going to catch up to the Jets’ strength of schedule.

So the Jets’ only hope of landing Lawrence is to lose their last two games, while the Jaguars win one. Given that the Jaguars are playing two teams still fighting for wild card berths, the Bears and Colts, it is unlikely that they’ll win one. If anything, the Jets are the team more likely to win another game, playing the Browns and Patriots in their final two.

We learned in yesterday’s Rams-Jets game that anything can happen, but it looks like Lawrence will be a Jaguar.

15 responses to “Jaguars likely to land No. 1 pick, draft Trevor Lawrence, thanks to easier schedule

  1. The Dolphins, Bills and Sam Darnold had a great weekend.

    The Patriots and Jets fans had a miserable weekend.

  2. I can’t speak for the players but as for the organization as a whole, very dumb move by the Jets smh.

  3. Good for Trevor! I thought he was doomed to playing in NY, at least Jacksonville has better weather and no state taxes.

  4. OMG, the Jets can’t even lose right. They need to consider forcing perpetually bad teams to sell to new owners because it’s getting ridiculous with some of these teams.

  5. This no good. Number one draft picks are proven to bust out every year. Jax should trade the pick for 12 other draft picks.

  6. As a Dolphins fan, you don’t like to tank. Many thought we did that last year. But the Dolphins were rebuilding and playing hard. Yes, they still got Tua. But if Miami was playing hard and were 0-13, you bet I’d want them to play scrubs and tank to end the season. You have a possibly generational QB talent waiting at #1.

    Another difference between Miami and the NYJ… They had their coach already. The Jets still have a lot to figure out…without Lawrence…

  7. Justin Fields will be another Josh Allen. Very raw but huge upside. It would be fitting for the Jets to pass on him only to watch him excel for the next 10-15 years.

  8. Enjoy Florida Trevor but who would take a chance and get Minshew ? He will not accept being a backup and too many teams need a QB with upside.

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