Will Patrick Mahomes catch Tom Brady in Super Bowl appearances, wins?

AFC Championship: New England Patriots Vs Kansas City Chiefs At Arrowhead Stadium
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Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will make his second Super Bowl appearance in four seasons. Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady will make his tenth. So here’s the question: Will Mahomes catch Brady?

Brady also had two Super Bowl appearances in his first four seasons, the first of which was spent on the bench. Mahomes also spent his first season on the bench, and he has gotten to the AFC Championship in each of his three season as a starter.

Mahomes would have three Super Bowl appearances if former Chiefs pass rusher Dee Ford hadn’t lined up offside in the 2018 AFC title game against Brady and the Patriots, or if the Chiefs had won the coin toss at the outset of the extra session and had scored a first-drive touchdown. If that had happened, Mahomes would have three Super Bowl appearances instead of two, and Brady would have nine Super Bowl appearances instead of 10.

Actually, Mahomes could be on his fourth straight Super Bowl berth. If the Chiefs had benched Alex Smith during the 2017 season, when the team’s offense was struggling, Mahomes potentially could have given the Chiefs a lift that would have carried them beyond a 22-21 loss to the Titans in the wild card round.

For Mahomes, what matters is the future. Under contract through the end of the decade, he’ll continue to keep the Chiefs relevant and competitive. They could end up in five, six, seven, or more Super Bowls. And Mahomes could ultimately catch Brady’s 10 appearances.

In 13 days, Mahomes either will double his Super Bowl wins from one to two, or Brady will increase his record run from six to seven. Even if his does, no one will be shocked if Mahomes catches Brady, in Super Bowl appearances, in Super Bowl wins, or both.

43 responses to “Will Patrick Mahomes catch Tom Brady in Super Bowl appearances, wins?

  1. Two different eras that overlap. Two incredible QB’s who have careers overlapping. Comparison is the enemy of happiness.

  2. No. Mahomes won’t always have Hill and Kelce and even Reid won’t be around for all that much longer. Great to get back to back when you have the team assembled but now that they are paying Mahomes it will be a lot harder to keep the band together in the coming years.

  3. No.

    Mahomes has 2021 as his last viable season to contend for a Superbowl. After that point, his cap goes over $40M a season (and up to $60M in 2027). Brady won so many because he kept his salary/cap number reasonable allowing for talent to build the team.

    Fun fact about the salary cap on the Championship Games:
    Brady: $25M
    Rodgers: $21M
    Mahomes: $5.3M
    Allen: $5.8M

  4. If Brady has anything to say about it, Mahomes will have to wait a bit before he can catch up with Brady.

  5. As will all great teams the Chiefs are about to come up against Free Agency and the Cap. It’s going to be a great story seeing howw the org handles that..

  6. No and here’s why – His style of play will prevent him from playing at his current level beyond 8 or 9 years. Too many hits will inevitably lead to major injuries which will derail his career.

  7. The salary cap isn’t an issue. Mahomes can win with any team around him. It really just depends if he can stop taking hits.

  8. Anything is possible. Mahomes seems remarkable enough for it to happen. A few things suggest to me that it won’t:

    1) Andy Reid is 15 years older now than Belichick was at this point in Brady’s career.
    2) The Chiefs have done well with drafting, but their current success is based on “star power” skill players, which is tough to sustain.
    3) Every time we think we’re done with new greats entering the game, more come along. What I saw of Justin Herbert this season tells me he is on the fast train to elite status. Trevor Lawrence joins the fray next season, on a team with gobs of salary-cap space. Bills, Browns, Ravens, Titans aren’t going away.

    What I see in his favor:
    1) The Chiefs are a well-run team, much more sound than future rivals like Chargers & Jags.
    2) The NFC looks primed for a downturn, with Brees & Brady signing off soon and the likes of the Packers, Seahawks, and Rams having a lot of questions across their rosters.

  9. No. Once Mahomes salary cap number goes up next year, they’ll come back down to earth. Like the Seahawks when they won on Wilson’s rookie contract.

  10. Like Cal Ripkens consecutive game streak in baseball, 10 Superbowl appearances will prove to be a record just as unbreakable. Unless of course, Brady makes it number 11 next season.

  11. if he can stay healthy i think he does…Andy Reid being old wont matter, the salary cap will not get in the way…Mahomes makes the players around him better…

  12. No. He might win 3-4 but I don’t see 6. His cap will jump, Kelce is getting older, Tyreek Hill’s only attribute is speed and that does not age well, and they really only have a couple studs on D. If he takes the Mahomes State Farm discount and re-negotiates like Brady did, maybe. With the way the league is, I don’t think anyone will ever get to 6 again.

  13. Probably won’t catch him in appearances. If Brady wins this one, it will probably be difficult for anyone to catch him in wins. Next year, the NFC takes a downturn with only TB looking decent. Seattle wants to run more and has questions. GB has questions with Rodgers not looking like he is returning. Dallas’ defense is just horrible. Rams won’t win squat with Goff. Arizona has issues. NO has questions. While Mahomes’ salary really hits next year, he is positioned with all of his major players being around for the foreseeable future. With Reid, Tyreek, & Kelce all signed for the next few years, you could see KC in the SB almost every year for the next 3-5 years depending on what. If Veach keeps making smart draft picks/free agent pickups, and they get solid coach to succeed Andy, Mahomes has every opportunity to catch Brady in wins.

  14. We say this about every young stud QB. Rodgers won his first and the wuedtion was only how many. Many things happens. His style is already taking its physical roll. Turf toe is not a joke.

  15. Pat doesn’t go through the health Regiment that Tom has gone through all his life he will never catch or surpass him

  16. i believe if brady wins the SB… he will have more rings than any team.
    .
    that would be a tough record to beat.

  17. I believe if Brady loses this SB he will have the record for most SB wins AND tie for most SB losses.

  18. It’s nearly impossible when you really look at what needs to happen year in and year out in order to even get to a Super Bowl. Roster turnover, injuries, playing with a target on your back, etc. What Brady and the Patriots did (and for how long), winning 17 of 18 division titles—that alone won’t happen. How Brady and Belichick did it for so long with completely different personnel is astounding.

    Mahomes will have runs at the title in bursts—it just doesn’t sustain. He should get 3-4 if things go well.

  19. Well just last week PFT had Josh Allen surpassing Mahomes so I don’t see this happening. Next it will be Justin Herbert and then Sam Darnold. Keep up the great work. Go Chiefs!

  20. Mahomes is awesome, but let him catch Eli Manning first, the Elway and Peyton, then Aikman, then Montana and Bradshaw.

  21. No because I doubt he will play until 43. That’s unreal! His great receivers will retire (or slow down) before he gets to that point.How did Brady throw 3 interceptions and still make the Super Bowl? Talk about leading a charmed life.

  22. Mahomes is a phenomenal talent [better, I believe than Brady] but to match the 6 super bowl appearances numbers also requires stars aligning — luck — that cannot be controlled. I fully expect Mahomes to be in more super bowls, but would not bet on 6 of them.

  23. Normally, I would say no but Patrick is really something special so if anyone was going to do it, it would be him. That said, I would bet that he will easily win his 2nd SB against the Bucs and will probably win a couple more. I’m guessing 5 winning SBs total.

  24. Jesus “if if if if”. C’mon man.

    Brady could easily have won 12 Superbowls playing the if game…

    If in 2006 afc champ game they don’t blow 21-3 lead to mannjngs colts. Bears in sb was easy win..
    if in 2007 sb they properly called holding or manning down by forward progress when being whipped by wilfork on helmet catch or if samuel simply doesn’t drop the interception earlier in the drive.. or if randy moss got that 60 yard bomb at the end etc..
    If in 2008 brady doesn’t have has knee torn off.
    If in 2011 sb welker catches the game sealing ball vs giant
    If in 2015 afc champ ghost doesn’t miss that extra point or they convert the 2 pt attempt at end to tie game and win in it.. or if jamie collins give up two tds up the middle to te (the only throw manning’s noodle arm still could make)
    If in 2017 sb the pats played any defense.. vs freaking backup Nate files.

    If if if if… Winning Superbowls is hard and football is a game of inches. Mahomes is beast but let’s see him win at this rate when his cap number is $40m and kelce and hill are old and reid is retird

  25. Nope. Mahomes is good, but it’s Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey that make the team special. They have a knack for the ball. Did you see Hill play? That guy is the difference in Mahomes being an average QB and being a very good QB. He is unguardable. The best a team can do is control him. He’s been the most dangerous receiver in the game for three or four years.

  26. For those saying his future salary is going to be a detriment: yes and no.

    He does get a LOT more expensive as early as next year. That’s when I’d expect some roster trimming, and it’ll most likely come from the defense (Frank Clark seems to be a likely candidate to start) and Watkins from the offense. Veach has proven he has an eye for talent, which is what is going to help phase out older players like Kelce down the road, and eventually Hill. They’ll be able to draft speedy receivers, a solid defensive backfield for Mathieu to mentor.

    Fast forward to the later half of his contract. His price comes down, with an (assumingly) larger salary cap to be able to help pay for a younger team for him to lead. He’s proven he’s accurate and smart with the ball already, and as he gets older he’ll be less inclined to have to make some of these runs himself.

    We’ll see how it plays out in the coming years. But as it stands: Brady is still the GOAT until proven otherwise. If there is a QB that has any chance of catching up to him though, it’s Mahomes easily.

  27. Easy, breezy. 1. Don’t get really hurt. 2. Keep superb roster. 3. No salary cap issues. 4. Old, fat Andy Reid stays viable for 10 more years.

  28. In short, no.

    Mahomes won’t have Reid as his HC for his ‘Entire’ career as Brady had essentially w/ Bellichik.

    Mahomes will win Multiple SBs though. He is a great QB.

  29. Probably not. All of the next gen great QB’s are either in the AFC or are going to be in the AFC. That conference is going to be very tough to get out of for a long time.

    I see him getting a few more, though. He’s really fun to watch (well, except for this past Sunday).

  30. havok82 says:
    January 25, 2021 at 8:52 pm
    No. He might win 3-4 but I don’t see 6. His cap will jump, Kelce is getting older, Tyreek Hill’s only attribute is speed and that does not age well, and they really only have a couple studs on D. If he takes the Mahomes State Farm discount and re-negotiates like Brady did, maybe. With the way the league is, I don’t think anyone will ever get to 6 again.///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
    Most of these takes I agree with. Tom is great and this record is going to be hard to break. But to say Tyreek’s only skill is speed is incorrect. He tracks the ball better than almost anyone in the league, route running is superb and he has made 3 of the top 5 catches this season. His hands are ridiculous. His speed kills. But that isn’t all he has.

  31. It isn’t all he has, but it is the primary factor in why he gets open. Once he slows down, he doesn’t have size to body guys and he hasn’t shown that he can out jump folks consistently. Outside of his obvious domestic violence issues, he is a heck of an athlete. He does have good hands, but his defining factor is speed. Lots of WR have good hands. Not many can run a 4.2

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