Sure, the Texans may try to argue that, if Stafford is worth two first-round picks and a third-round pick, Watson is worth more than Herschel Walker. But the reality is that the Lions got those picks because they absorbed Jared Goff’s Osweilerian contract. Without taking Goff off the Rams’ books, the Lions would get a lot less than two ones and a three.
The consistent thinking in league circles has been that the Texans should get three first-round picks for Watson, if/when they decide to trade him. The Texans have a path to trying to get more, if they play it smart. (More on that still to come.)
Insisting that Stafford sets the floor with two first-round picks and a third-round pick would amount to playing it dumb, because it would reveal that the Texans don’t understand how the Stafford-Goff deal went down, what the Rams got, and what the Lions bought.
Finally, remember this: Watson shouldn’t want his next team to give up too much to get him. If it does, he could end up trading one 4-12 team for another.