The Matthew Stafford trade shouldn’t affect Deshaun Watson’s trade value

NFL: NOV 26 Texans at Lions
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The trade that sent quarterback Matthew Stafford from the Lions to the Rams potentially becomes relevant to any eventual trade talks involving Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. It shouldn’t.

Sure, the Texans may try to argue that, if Stafford is worth two first-round picks and a third-round pick, Watson is worth more than Herschel Walker. But the reality is that the Lions got those picks because they absorbed Jared Goff’s Osweilerian contract. Without taking Goff off the Rams’ books, the Lions would get a lot less than two ones and a three.

The consistent thinking in league circles has been that the Texans should get three first-round picks for Watson, if/when they decide to trade him. The Texans have a path to trying to get more, if they play it smart. (More on that still to come.)

Insisting that Stafford sets the floor with two first-round picks and a third-round pick would amount to playing it dumb, because it would reveal that the Texans don’t understand how the Stafford-Goff deal went down, what the Rams got, and what the Lions bought.

Finally, remember this: Watson shouldn’t want his next team to give up too much to get him. If it does, he could end up trading one 4-12 team for another.

27 responses to “The Matthew Stafford trade shouldn’t affect Deshaun Watson’s trade value

  1. The NFL is full of surprises. It only takes one GM, and they’re not all geniuses. I’m sure some GM’s think Watson is an elite QB, and there are others that don’t. But with respect to QB’s, expect the unexpected. I remember thinking John Elway was going to have an advantage over everyone else with regards to evaluating QB’s. Show’s you what I know.

  2. his value should be low for being insubordinate after he willing chose to sign a new contract just months ago… He has made himself a HIGH risk asset to anyone that will trust him and trade for him…. You now know the moment he is unhappy, he will keep pulling the same move because it worked for him before!

  3. It would be a total failure if the Texans only get three first round picks for Watson. That’s if they decide to trade him. After all, he can’t trade himself.

  4. 3 first round draft picks plus Sam Darnold from the Jets. Darnold has some value-who knows

  5. The only team I would accept a trade from is Jacksonville. The Texans should get the Jags (2) 1st round picks, (2) 2nd round picks this year, the 1st round pick in 2022 + RB James Robinson! The Texans draft Lawrance, and upgrade the OL and defense with the picks.

    Urban Meyer may want a veteran instead of Lawrance.

    If the Texans do trade Watson, the team who gets him will need to plan on extending Watson in (3) years or let him him play out his (4) years left on his contract and then franchise him for a couple of years.

  6. Higher risk same output. Watson comes across as a ME guy. Rather have the bloated stats of stafford than garbage time stats of 40+mill watson. Goff contract not that bad. Almost a wash and they got younger plus multiple picks for a badly bruised Stafford.

  7. Anyone who gives up three first round picks for Watson is nuts. What has he won? Yeah, he’s a good QB but he’s not all that. On top of that, he signed that $156M extension in September. Ironically, he was crying because the deal was so amazing (including $111M in guaranteed money). Now, less than five months later, he’s crying like a little baby because he wants out. If he wants out that bad he can do what Carson Palmer did and retire and force the Texans’ hand. Still, if I’m a team owner I wouldn’t want him at any price because he has turned into an incessant whiner. Do you really want someone like T.O. under center? No thanks.

  8. I’ll bet head coaches and gms all over the league are clammerring for Watson. They want someone to do their jobs for them.

  9. The more we emotionally invested we are in Watson as a person and player, the higher his value to the franchise that employs him.

    Which may or may not make it harder to find a trade partner.

    At some point, we’re all going to see that this money game is really about something else we crave — great leadership.

  10. If your neighbors identical house just sold for $500k, and your other neighbors identical house just sold for $500k, does that mean your house is worth $500k? No. Your house is worth exactly whatever somebody is willing to pay for it. And that is what Watson’s worth is. Whatever the best offer is. And any team that would give three first round picks is crazy.

  11. I think Deshaun Watson is worth one 1st rounder and nothing more. His next team is taking on big risks of him being injury prone and quitting if things don’t go his way.

  12. Watson is over rated. Ya he lead the league in passing yards becuase his team was always behind. Trade him to a team like the Jets who will have to part with a lot of draft capitol so he can go 4 and 12 again to whine some more.

  13. Yeah the Watson contract is worse for a QB who is not as successful(the ONLY stat that is relevant for a QB is wins and losses, everything else is window dressing)as Goff was.

    The reality is Watson is untradable unless it is to someone who is stupid (and lord knows we know that there ares some idiots in NFL management\ownership) BECAUSE of his contract.

    If this were a “normal” NFL year and the cap was going up instead of down, Watson would get traded pretty quickly because someone would take a chance. It ain’t. And there are murmurs that the NFL is telling owners they don’t see things getting any prettier (cap wise) for the 2022 season.

    Everybody here should agree that decisions by NFL teams are largely based on money, that’s not changing because of covid, in the good times the money flows and owners don’t mind buying pretty “toys”. When the profits are down the mistresses have to get along on a beemmer instead of a rolls.

    Watson just picked a really bad time to throw his temper tantrum.

  14. I wouldn’t trade for a player that just signed a new contract 5 months earlier. He could do the same thing after a year if he didn’t like the way things are going. To much of a distraction, no matter how good they are.

  15. Watson’s trade package will probably include more Texans players. They also need to unload cap space.

  16. I don’t think that the Texas are going to get the kind of draft haul that everyone anticipates. His contract is a team breaker especially with the cap going down. That’s why the Rams gave so much to get Stafford even though they were giving Goff: that HUGE contract is an albatross around their necks. The picks make it possible for them to build without spending as much since SO much is going to Goff. With Deshaun having the Goff-type contract, whoever takes him on will need to have flexibility or youth already because that contract is going to eat their cap space. Yes, Deshaun is an extraordinary talent. But if you hamstrung your organization when you get him he’s going to be the same guy he was in Houston: someone who can elevate those around him and carry a team almost far enough but not quite because he has no one around him.

  17. The compensation cost for Watson will be the most massive ever given for a player. The modern market hasn’t been set for such an elite player. Miami has the most to offer and be successful with him, NY (both teams) will fall short. 4-1sts, 2-2nds, 2-3rds… and more. But a true superstar, MVP with the right team.

  18. In 2012 Matt Schaub threw for over 4,000 yards, 22 TD’s leading Houston to a 12-4 record, and an AFC South Division title. Would anyone give 3 number 1’s for Schaub? Watson’s 2020 stats are great, but he went 4-12 with a few of those losses directly on him, fumbling in the 4th quarter. Is he really THAT good?

  19. Pleeeease, Watson couldn’t carry Goff’s jock strap, Goff has already been to a SB, Watson????? hello whatchagot?

  20. If I was the GM for Seattle I would trade Wilson for Watson.. Wilson is great but he is aging and slowing down. Holds the ball way to long.

  21. statechamp77 says:
    January 31, 2021 at 11:03 am

    Urban Meyer may want a veteran instead of Lawrance.


    Urban Meyer is fresh out of college, and his OC, Darrell Bevell, has already famously started one rookie quarterback over an expensive veteran. Also, they already have passable starter Gardner Minshew as well. No way are they going to trade away draft picks that are desperately needed to fill numerous holes on the team for another quarterback.

  22. He still has a trade value even after just signing a contract in September and literally backing out of it with-in 4mos?

    I wouldn’t give anything for him, well maybe a 3rd rounder and a ham & cheese sammich’ and only if he took a pay cut!

  23. ivotedfornixon says:
    January 31, 2021 at 11:03 am
    3 first round draft picks plus Sam Darnold from the Jets. Darnold has some value-who knows

    If I were the Texans GM I’d take that trade just to screw Watson by sending him to an even worse team than the one he’s on!

    I don’t see Watson getting a lot of attention with the cut salary cap coming in 2021 and the fact that a lot of teams are either set at QB or willing to go a year with what they have and the few that aren’t are set to get one early in this years draft. The demand for Watson will be low, he couldn’t have picked a worse time to throw his lil’ baby type temper tantrum!

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