Patrick Mahomes favored over Aaron Rodgers to be 2021 NFL MVP

Kansas City Chiefs v Green Bay Packers
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Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the early favorite to win league MVP for the 2021 NFL season.

Mahomes is listed at +500 in the DraftKings odds, making him the preseason favorite.

He’s followed by the 2020 MVP, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who is at +800. Rodgers is fresh off his third MVP, and if he were to win it again in 2021, he’d have four MVPs, which would be second only to Peyton Manning in NFL history.

Next are Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, both at +1300.

The most interesting bet may be Matthew Stafford, who is soon to be traded to the Rams and whose MVP odds are at +1500. If Stafford’s arrival makes the Rams the No. 1 seed in the NFC, that would probably be enough to make Stafford the MVP.

Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, a three-time MVP, and Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, a one-time MVP, are next at +1600.

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and disgruntled Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson are both at +1700.

Two young quarterbacks, Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray, are both at +1800, followed by Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill at +2500.

The top non-quarterbacks on the board are Titans running back Derrick Henry and Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey, both at +3300.

Among the longest of long shots are Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz and Saints quarterback Jameis Winston, all at +4000, and Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins and Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, all at +5000.

81 responses to “Patrick Mahomes favored over Aaron Rodgers to be 2021 NFL MVP

  1. Maybe it would make sense to let them play a few games before predicting the MVP 7 months out? Just a thought.

  2. Regular Season MVP = No Superbowl trophy. Would rather Rodgers never win another one of these “Meaningless Value Prizes” ever again, and get a 2nd ring.

  3. Rodgers would likely trade his season MVP award straight up for this years Super Bowl title, but I could picture him thinking about it first, because it’s clearly important to him.

    Brady definitely would, every time. He’s never once mentioned them, or any personal award as being a goal of his.

    That’s the difference between the two of them, and it’s a big one.

  4. I would think that Brady would be more heavily favored based on what he did in his first season with the bucs. He might really light it up next season. Not to mention, he’ll probably perceive this as a slight, even though he only seems to care about winning superbowls.

  5. They should put out odds on whether Russell Wilson gets his first ever single vote for MVP.

  6. Mahomes better learn how to throw 1 yard TD passes. Rodgers led the league with EIGHT one yard passes. Mahomes only had one 1 yard TD pass. Rodgers knows you can’t win the MVP by handing off. Rodgers always has put himself above team

  7. I’m sure Rodgers will audible out of some more goal line RB TD plays to prevent that! Aaron Rodgers=Biggest stats try hard in the NFL…

  8. Probably not for long after the Raiders, Chargers and Broncos use Tampa’s model to build a defense against them… Poor guy will be running backwards 6 games a year..

  9. Brady was the MVP this year. Put him on the packers and Green Bay has a Superbowl. Same with just about every other team. He whippen Aaron in Green Bay.

  10. Rodgers and Watson are the NFL’s best QB’s, followed by Brady and then the rest a cast of 29 others… injuries not limiting, I’ll go with Rodgers again in 2021.

  11. Anyone have the MVP odds for 2026 yet? Seems like a good time to start talking about that.

  12. I agree, if they use Tampa’s model the league MVP on’t be possible for Mahomes. Of course the challenge of actually getting players of Tampa’s quality and the whole 3 starting lineman needing to be out thing could be a problem but it’s a great goal. I’m sure every team can just put in the tape and every defense be great. Insightful stuff!

  13. If I was going to make a pick at the window in Vegas, I’d take Stafford. Best odds slash possibilities.

  14. Kerouac says: “Rodgers and Watson are the NFL’s best QBs…”
    ———————–
    Watson?! But while one can say Rodgers (and others who like Mahomes, etc) are better passers than Brady, ultimately what the league, Chris Simms, and too many homie fans don’t seem to be able to grasp is there’s more to being a QB than just passing yards. It’s also about being a leader and being clutch, especially in the postseason – or at least it should be.

  15. After the score in the SB became 14 – 3 in favor of TB, I remarked to someone at the sports bar that the score was the refs 14 and KC 3. I didn’t have a dog in the fight, but the favoritism of the refs was clear and I went home.

  16. I would worry about the MVP curse. If I were a betting man, I would have been rich. Whenever I see an MVP I automatically bet against him going to or winning the Super Bowl. It’s been over over 20 years.

  17. After the score in the SB became 14 – 3 in favor of TB, I remarked to someone at the sports bar that the score was the refs 14 and KC 3. I didn’t have a dog in the fight, but the favoritism of the refs was clear and I went home.

    —-
    For the last time—the refs don’t have a dog in the fight either—grow up. Goodell wasn’t twisting his mustache and laughing maniacally as he handed them bags with black “$” signs on them in an ally before the game, and the league isn’t favoring Brady to win. There is no agenda.

    KC got called for those multiple penalties because—you guessed it—they committed them. They’re one of the most penalized teams in the league. Watch a replay of the game and you’ll see it.

    Tampa Bay beat them on defense all night, and offense, and KC made no adjustments to stop it in the 2nd half. Bowles game-planned for an undermanned KC offensive line and didn’t have to blitz. They steamrolled those part timers, and Mahomes was scrambling all night while finding no one open. He’s not very used to that.

    That’s what happened.

  18. After what the league and referees did for Brady in the Super Bowl, the guess here is that Brady ekes out the MVP over Mahomes – with Brady’s 29 TDs and 20 INTs just enough to overcome Mahomes’ 48 and 7.

  19. Some of those passes that Patrick M tried Aaron cannot do. If TB did not have missing safeties, packers also have scored 9 point, in their home field

  20. It starts to get a little trickier for the Chiefs cap wise with Mahomes contract.
    2020 – $5.3 mil
    2021 – $24.8
    2022 – $31.4
    2023 – $42.4

    A team that gets a great QB on that low rookie wage scale has such an advantage cap wise to load up in other areas.

  21. If you can’t score even just one touchdown in the super bowl and your fans do nothing afterwards but blame the refs, you are definitely overrated. Next time, don’t hype up a quarterback after winning one super bowl. There are a lot of one hit wonders who barely won just one ring.

  22. By all means give Rodgers another MVP. And then he can really enjoy watching the superbowl on his couch.

  23. Some of the passes Mahomes threw nobody can throw and if they planned a better running balance in that game he would not have had to attempt them. All the talk about Bieniemy being the best coach available he sure disappeared when put up against that Buc’s defense. He’s former running backs coach too so how he missed that especially knowing your QB has mobility issue going into the game. I 2 weeks wasn’t enough time for him to prepare.

  24. Who in their right mind would put money on Russell Wilson at this point? Especially with him being among the lowest payouts.

  25. Mahomes being the favorite before the season even begins is proof that he won’t be the MVP. The odds-makers always get the pre-season odds wrong, on almost everything.

  26. mdt53vb says:
    February 14, 2021 at 9:36 am

    Brady was the MVP this year. Put him on the packers and Green Bay has a Superbowl. Same with just about every other team. He whippen Aaron in Green Bay.
    **********
    This is a really simpleminded take.
    Brady wasn’t the difference maker for the Bucs in the postseason, their defense was.
    Plain and simple.

    Tampa’s defense absolutely stymied Mahomes and Co. in route to the Super Bowl title.
    And in the NFC Championship game, it was the Bucs defense that limited the consequences of Brady’s mistakes.
    3 interceptions and almost no collateral damage and their ability to close out scoring opportunities killed GB.

    Brady is a great QB, one of the best ever, and brings a lot of intangibles to a team, but please, give real credit where credit is due.

  27. beachsidejames says:
    February 14, 2021 at 11:45 am
    Some of the passes Mahomes threw nobody can throw and if they planned a better running balance in that game he would not have had to attempt them. All the talk about Bieniemy being the best coach available he sure disappeared when put up against that Buc’s defense. He’s former running backs coach too so how he missed that especially knowing your QB has mobility issue going into the game. I 2 weeks wasn’t enough time for him to prepare.
    ______________

    Its very tough to run against the Bucs. If you try to run inside, Vea occupies so much space that its tough to get any push. Don’t forget about Suh as well. If you run outside, JPP is excellent at setting the edge, and no one tracks the ball carrier to the sideline better than White. Also, the Chiefs missed Damien Williams, aka the real SB 54 MVP.

  28. As others are saying, Brady is NOT an MVP. He played very well, there is no doubt, but with the Tampa defense holding the Chiefs to 9 points, ANY QB would have been enough to win the Super Bowl.

    Even in the playoffs, it was the Tampa D that won those games, even when Brady threw 3 picks.

  29. Brady was the MVP this year. Put him on the packers and Green Bay has a Superbowl. Same with just about every other team.
    =====

    It would have been wildly amusing to see him under center for KC in teh Super Bowl.

    15 sacks? 20 sacks?

    He’d never work in teh Shanahan offense either. Too much movement required. LaFleur would have ot throw out half the playbook.

  30. Viking Fan Blames Officials…..Everybody Drink says:

    This is a really simpleminded take.
    Brady wasn’t the difference maker for the Bucs in the postseason, their defense was.
    Plain and simple.

    _____________________________________________

    That team doesn’t make the playoffs without Brady. His defense underperformed against the Falcons, Chargers, and Saints in the regular season. Brady threw 40 touchdowns and had 3 rushing touchdowns as well. Against the Redskins in the wild card round, the offense won them the game. The defense made Taylor Heinicke look like a solid starter. While Brady’s defense did force multiple turnovers in the playoffs, they didn’t put points on the scoreboard. Brady threw 10 touchdowns to 3 interceptions in the playoffs, had 1 rushing touchdown, and he was one Joe Haeg catch away from an 11th pass touchdown in Super Bowl LV. Give Tom at least half the credit.

  31. Tom Brady favored over Mahomes & Rodgers to be the next SB MVP, the only trophies he cherishes. #EyesOn8

  32. Right now, both Mahomes and Rodgers have one SB title each to their names. Rodgers is currently ahead in stats, but Mahomes is still young and his career is comparatively still in its infancy. By the time Mahomes retires, he will most likely surpass Rodgers in every category. In the end, Rodgers can win every MVP award (an individual award) till he retires, but leave as a ‘One Hit Wonder,’ with only one SB title (a team achievement) to his name.

  33. Mahomes better learn how to throw 1 yard TD passes. Rodgers led the league with EIGHT one yard passes.
    =====

    Yeah, what an indictment.. a team consistently scoring points on an unstoppable play….

  34. Mahomes & Rodgers should both be criticized for the plays they ran. Both have some discretion on what they can do on the field, once they see what the defense is doing or a play breaks down.

    Rodgers blew it in the red zone. Mahomes may have become too enamored of his big jazzy plays. Brady will take what the defense gives him time & again to get the win.

  35. Some people will never get it.

    Brady wasn’t along for the ride in 3 road wins and upsetting the Chiefs for his 7th Super Bowl. He’s never been along for the ride. He reads defenses better than anyone in the game and still has above average velocity and touch and he’s freakin’ 43 years old. Betting against him has been proven time and again to be futile.

    If you like losing money because you’re blind to these facts, bet against him this year too.

    Mahomes is great, but he hasn’t had to face adversity until this years final game. We’ll see how he handles 20 years of ups and downs. Nobody has negotiated that road better than Brady.

  36. Aaron Rodgers out played Brady in the NFC Championship game. Look at the stats. If the Packers lousy defense doesn’t give up a TD on the last play of the half, and Jones doesn’t fumble leading off the third qtr. Then Brady would of lost the game. Had nothing to do with Rodgers play!

  37. Is there an award for playoff chokes, cause yeah Rodgers
    =====

    #2 rated active post-season passer (3 tenths behind the leader)

    Winning post-season record. He’d have to lose 3 in a row for that to change… he hasn’t lost back-to-back games since 2012, nearly a whole decade.

  38. Aaron Rodger’s goose was cooked years ago, never mind the stats or wins. His post-season legacy is one of major disappointment. He doesn’t even have the grit to win big games anymore: not winning, just whining.

  39. Rodgers did not outplay Brady. He was sacked five times, was like 0-6 in the red zone on first and goal situations, he didn’t have an opening drive touchdown despite scoring a total of 73 points in opening drives in the regular season, and Brady even had a higher quarterback rating at the end of the game. Rodgers trailed by like 18 points, and he never had the lead the entire game. How can the league’s MVP play so horribly on the grandest stage? While Tom had a bad third quarter, Rodgers and his receivers just didn’t show up.

  40. That team doesn’t make the playoffs without Brady.
    =====

    #3 offense, #29 defense in 2019

    The defense improved to 8th, the offense remained 3rd.

    Hard to prove Brady was the difference maker, in the regular season anyway.

  41. When it comes to quarterbacks, people always seem to forget that the NFL is a TEAM SPORT.

    In order for a QB to win multiple Super Bowls, a QB needs to be good and he needs a good team and coaches around him. Luck (injuries and opponents) also play an enormous role.

    There have been many great QBs in the NFL that never won a Super Bowl..or even got to the Super Bowl.

  42. Honestly now may be the time to start placing bets for peanuts on some of the ones not named Mahomes or Rodgers. Those odds are going to change every month or so up until week 17. There’s no guarantee that any of the big names won’t have a catastrophic injury or some other drama surface (Wilson/Watson).

  43. Brady has earned the right to the GOAT title. But anyone who thinks he outplayed Rodgers in the NFCCG didn’t watch that game. Brady had a 28-10 lead, but threw three straight picks to let Green Bay back into the game and was absolutely horrible in the second half. If the name on the back of they jersey was “Winston” or anyone else, the story is how Tampa’s defense harassed Rodgers all day and allowed Tampa to advance despite abysmal QB play. Brady also threw from a clean pocket in both games, pretty much the opposite of what Rodgers and Mahomes had to work with. Tampa won because of their defense.

  44. gbpforme says:
    February 14, 2021 at 1:11 pm
    Aaron Rodgers out played Brady in the NFC Championship game. Look at the stats. If the Packers lousy defense doesn’t give up a TD on the last play of the half, and Jones doesn’t fumble leading off the third qtr. Then Brady would of lost the game. Had nothing to do with Rodgers play!

    =======================================

    I would suggest re-watching the game. You’ll have a very different perspective on rodgers’ play. His stat line looks fine, but he froze up multiple times in the red zone. He’s simply not the same guy in the playoffs that he is during the regular season.

  45. If I had to bet my life on one guy to win a game to save it, I’d pick Brady.

    Someone tell me I’m wrong.

  46. He’s simply not the same guy in the playoffs that he is during the regular season.
    =====

    103.9 regular season rating
    100.4 post-season rating (ten points higher than Brady)

  47. Brady getting consistent pass rush pressure on Mahomes and chasing him all over the field is why Tampa won the Super Bowl. If not for his outstanding defensive play, no way Tampa holds the Chiefs to nine points.

  48. aarons444 says:
    February 14, 2021 at 6:41 pm
    He’s simply not the same guy in the playoffs that he is during the regular season.
    =====

    103.9 regular season rating
    100.4 post-season rating (ten points higher than Brady)
    ===================================================

    You’re literally making the point for me. I started by saying “re-watch the game”. Watch the games not the stats, and don’t wear green and yellow tinted glasses. Stats don’t tell the full story and you know this. He’s not the same guy in the playoffs, especially as the stakes increase. 1-4 in NFC championship games. This is why it’s absurd to hand the MVP to rodgers instead of someone like Brady or Mahomes. When the rubber meets the road, both of those men elevate their game.

    It’s fashionable to talk about LaFleur’s decision to go for a field goal in the game against the Bucs. But no one shares as much blame for that loss as aaron rodgers. Watch the red zone snaps.

  49. I started by saying “re-watch the game”. Watch the games not the stats, and don’t wear green and yellow tinted glasses. Stats don’t tell the full story and you know this.
    =====

    I believe in the stories that stats tell.

    Rodgers is a very good post-season QB. The stats bear that out. Few in NFL history have done it as well as him. Few active QBs have either.

    You can accuse me of wearing Rodgers goggles. Just as the haters ignore how terrible McCarthy was as a coach in big games, and how absolutely wretched that defense was in critical moments.

    The ball was taken out of his hands at the end of the game. Maybe he makes a play, maybe he doesn’t. One play could have erased all of this. Or cemented it once and for all. We’ll never know.

    Haters can run with it. I know what I’ve watched the last decade. No other QB would have won more rings as a Packer. Not when all things are taken into account.

  50. Can we please stop the Stafford nonsense? I watched him for 12 years and he is playing hurt all the time now. In addition he is making more mistakes in crunch times as evidenced by his lack of comebacks against playoff teams. Not sure any of them were or ever have been.That great cleveland highlight from 12 years ago? I think the browns had two wins
    With even more pressure with the rams he has the great possibility of becoming the football version of Clayton kershaw

  51. “Haters can run with it. I know what I’ve watched the last decade. No other QB would have won more rings as a Packer. Not when all things are taken into account.”

    Tom Brady would have.

  52. aarons444 says:
    February 14, 2021 at 2:23 pm
    That team doesn’t make the playoffs without Brady.
    =====

    #3 offense, #29 defense in 2019

    The defense improved to 8th, the offense remained 3rd.

    Hard to prove Brady was the difference maker, in the regular season anyway.

    ===================================================================================

    You realize that the NFL ranks by yardage, right?

    Brady improved the WHOLE team with his leadership. Brady does not care about stats and personal awards like a certain GB QB. That is the big difference between the two of them, one is a born leader and one is a stat hound.

  53. aarons444 says:
    February 14, 2021 at 6:41 pm
    He’s simply not the same guy in the playoffs that he is during the regular season.
    =====

    103.9 regular season rating
    100.4 post-season rating (ten points higher than Brady)
    __________________________________

    1 Super Bowl win (6 fewer than Brady)

  54. You realize that the NFL ranks by yardage, right?
    ======

    And you realize how flawed that is? Right?

    Considering the object of the game is score more points than your opponent.

  55. Tom Brady would have.
    =====

    In Rodgers playoff loses, the D has given up 40 points per game on average. 4 0

    No QB in NFL history could win with that.

  56. It’s crazy to think that Aaron Rodgers would have to actually give a millisecond of thought to if he’d want the regular season MVP or a SB trophy.

    That’s so overplayed. Of course he would want SB’s.

  57. kennystablerisalive says:
    February 14, 2021 at 10:00 am
    Anyone have the MVP odds for 2026 yet? Seems like a good time to start talking about that.
    ————————————————–
    Not yet, gotta wait to see if Brady’s playing that season.

  58. Since the league MVP has not won the Super Bowl the same season for the past 2 decades, Mr Rodgers will gladly concede the MVP award to other players around the league.

  59. It’s fashionable to talk about LaFleur’s decision to go for a field goal in the game against the Bucs. But no one shares as much blame for that loss as aaron rodgers. Watch the red zone snaps.
    =====

    4 for 11 in the redzone, 2 td passes

    Adams dropped a td, Lazard let one whistle past his earhole. Failed 2pt conversion as well.

    What would those 16 points have meant to the outcome?

    But you go right ahead and focus on that last series…

  60. with rogers it’s always about what if and some stat and being let down by his team and/ or his coach or playing hurt or the latest girlfriend or a dysfuntional family. Just stop. It is what it is. he’s a regular season qb. he’s peyton manning without being able to get to the super bowl before choking. Just accept reality – brady dwarfs all professional athletes because of guts, will, leadership, clutch the things that really count in big moments. put a stat on that.

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