Will someone make Jaguars an offer they can’t refuse?


Last year, the Dolphins tried to move from No. 5 to No. 1, in order to draft quarterback Joe Burrow. Whatever the Dolphins offered (the specifics still aren’t known), the Bengals said no.

This year, someone likely will make the Jaguars an offer for the first pick in the draft, in order to take Trevor Lawrence. The first question becomes whether it will be an offer the Jaguars can’t refuse. The next question becomes whether the Jaguars actually will refuse it.

The situation raises an intriguing philosophical question regarding the lottery tickets that are NFL draft picks. With few sure things in the draft, will the Jaguars dig in with Lawrence (as the Bengals did with Burrow), or will they swap one lottery ticket for several?

The most intriguing potential suitor for 2021 is the Panthers. Carolina holds the eighth overall pick. If they package that pick with several other selections in an effort to keep Lawrence in close to Clemson, will that be enough to get the Jaguars to pull the trigger?

Other teams could make a similar effort. Ultimately, the Jaguars need to decide whether it makes more sense to take Lawrence or to take the ability to select multiple other players.

Rewind to 2020. The Bengals made it clear that they would, and did, reject all offers for the Burrow pick. But what if they’d done a deal with the Dolphins and selected Justin Herbert with the sixth overall pick? Even without Burrow’s ACL tear, it easily could be argued that the Bengals would have been better off with Herbert plus whatever else the Dolphins had offered.

This year, only the Jaguars will know whether they’ve gotten an offer they can’t refuse. And only the Jaguars will know whether they should refuse it.

74 responses to “Will someone make Jaguars an offer they can’t refuse?

  1. Minnesota trades Cousins, a 2022 1st rd pick, and a 2023 1st rd pick for the Jags #1 and the Vikes draft Trevor Lawrence. Who says no?

  2. Yeah, or the Bengals trade with the Dolphins and get Tua and then just feel bad, even if they got a bonus pick or three.

  3. This retroactive thinking is goofy. Many draft “experts” were almost mocking the notion of a team taking Herbert in the top ten, expecting a franchise QB. His doubters were legion, while Burrow was seen as a very high floor guy, something along the lines of a Matt Ryan (as a prospect). Why would the Bengals give up the super-safe option, as far as they saw it, fora guy who many saw as a much much longer shot. What good are bonus assets in a trade down if the core of such a move (the QB the team ends up with) ends up not working out at all? THAT is the circumstance the Bengals were facing. Should teams circa 2000 have traded way way down to stockpile assets because Tom Brady was waiting to be snatched up late? Of course not – nobody knew what was going to become of him.

  4. No way they trade the pick. They would never live it down if they let somebody else take Lawrence and he becomes a star. Also, the team has never had the #1 pick. They are going to enjoy all the attention that comes with it and they have what they believe as a can’t miss pick.

  5. The worthless human known as Urban Meyer didn’t sign on to coach Gardner Minshew. So no, they will not be trading the pick, Mike.

  6. Urban Meyer has had many opportunities to get back into coaching. I doubt very seriously that he just decided Jacksonville was that one great organization he’d been waiting for. I believe the only reason he signed with Jacksonville was so that he could draft Trevor Lawrence. About once every ten years you get a John Elway, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, or Trevor Lawrence. These are like lottery tickets that already have the winning numbers exposed. In fact, Lawrence might end up with the highest grades ever given to a college QB. If the Jets would have ended up with the number one pick, Urban Meyer would be coaching the Jets. About once every ten years I hope I’m wrong about something. This is that time. I’d love to see a trade.

  7. Jacksonville should just write down Lawrence’s name now and disconnect the phone lines.

  8. It’s been one year. Let’s let the whole Herbert is better than Burrow discussion simmer a few seasons….me doth think Burrow will prevail, bandwagoneers.

  9. Minnesota trades Cousins, a 2022 1st rd pick, and a 2023 1st rd pick for the Jags #1 and the Vikes draft Trevor Lawrence. Who says no?

    Everyone. Everyone says no.

  10. Well, Minnesota would sure say yes. Trevor Lawrence probably wouldn’t mind.

    Jacksonville would laugh them off the phone though lol

  11. It would be awesome if the Vikings could trade a bunch of draft picks, maybe two # 1’s and a number # 2, plus Cousins, but I don’t see the Jaguars going for it.

  12. Why are the Panthers an intriguing option? They are all the way down at eight and have no extra draft capital. You could plug: Jets, Dolphins, Falcons, Eagles as more likely. Like say the Falcons say Julio, 2021 1st, 2nd, 2022 1st, and 3rd, 2023 2nd. Still don’t think that’s enough, but worth a look. You would be able to draft someone like Fields, give him a HOF WR and have an extra 2nd this year for whatever.

  13. IF they weren’t in the same division… Jaguars trade this years 2 first rounders and their 2022 first rounder to the Texans for Watson.

  14. Lawrence is going to be a bust, doesn’t have NFL accuracy. Trade the pick and get what you can

  15. Trevor Lawrence will put butts in the stands down in Jacksonville. The Jaguars need that in a big way. I mean they tanked to draft this guy.

  16. Would love to be on the management consulting team Jags hire to figure out the ROI of trading unproven Lawrence for a rebuild.

  17. Dak, Gallup (FA next year), this year’s 1st round pick (10) and next year’s 2nd. If they want Elliot’s contract, add him to the package.

  18. They will regret this. They will regret hiring Meyer. Dude will get crushed with them chicken legs. But it’s fine with me because between them and Houston our division is down to 2 teams. Tannehill is who he is. Henry has a shelf life of a couple more years before he gases out.

  19. Remember how the expansion Browns got to keep the official Browns history, even though the real Browns moved to Baltimore and became the Ravens? How about we package Matt Ryan, Julio, the Falcons’ flabbergasting history, the new “ATL” uniforms, any future TV appearances by Deion, the rights to the dirty bird dance, a few Patriots 28-3 SB rings, and the knees of Steve Bartkowski to Jacksonville for the rights to Trevor Lawrence? We could once and for all truly start over.

  20. Headline – Texans Trade Watson to Jags – Net (7) 1st’s, (7) 2nd’s in WILD 3 Teams Trade!

    Texans trade Watson to Jags for (2) 2021 1st’s, (2) 2021 2nds, (1) 2022 1st, (1) 2022 2nd + RB James Robinson.

    Texans trade back with Jets @ #2, Jets draft Trevor Lawrence @ #1, Texans get (2) 2022 1st’s, (1) 2021 2nd, (1) 2022 1st, (1) 2022 2nd, + Sam Darnold.

    Texans trade Sam Darnold to a QB needy team, think Panthers, Broncos, SF, Patriots, WFT, Steelers, Saints for (1) 2021 1st, (1) 2021 2nd, (1) 2022 2nd.

    Texans draft Zack Wilson and the rebuild is complete.

  21. The Jets could bundle the #2 and #23 picks this year plus their two first round picks next year and Sam Darnold. The Jaguars would still say no.

  22. If they traded the number one this year for two number ones this year, with say Miami, and picked up a number one next year, and then used those picks to concentrate on offensive and defensive lineman, I’d bet they would be far better off in four years than with Lawrence. Furthermore, Miami would probably want them to take Tua off their hands. He is probably a bust, but who knows, not a given yet. That’s what a good GM might do.

  23. IMO Burrow is better than Herbert. My team (Jaguars) played both and the Bengals made the right decision. I feel that Burrow was just figuring out the pro game and started looking incredible right before his injury. Burrow looks like he could become a Manning-esque drop back passer while Herbert reminds me of Josh Allen.

  24. I have never watched Lawrence play, so I do not know just how real a deal he actually is. I will say that, looking back at the list of quarterbacks who were drafted first overall–supposed “generational talents”–there are not a lot of great names. There are several good names like Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck, but you have to go back to the twentieth century to find any great ones like Payton Manning or I guess maybe Troy Aikman (Elway was wildly overrated and got all but his last two Pro Bowl invitations on hype rather than performance). On the other hand, the busts like David Carr, Sam Bradford, JaMarcus Russell, and Tim Couch are enough to give me pause. I am not saying that the Jaguars should necessarily trade down, but they should be willing to listen to offers.

  25. No. HELL TO THE NO. You give up on this guy and we will talk about the charred remains of TIAA BANK FIELD. End of story.

  26. Would I trade the pick if I were the Jags GM? Yes, in a heartbeat. Will the Jags GM (or any other team’s GM if they had THIS #1 pick) trade it? Almost certainly, no freaking way.

    If you trade it, and Lawrence goes on to a HOF career, you’re name is mud forever in the annals of NFL history. If you pick Lawrence and he does tank, at least you will never seriously be second guessed for making the OBVIOUS pick.

  27. you have to go back to the twentieth century to find any great ones like Payton Manning or I guess maybe Troy Aikman (Elway was wildly overrated and got all but his last two Pro Bowl invitations on hype rather than performance).

    Wow, Aikman might have been great and Elway overrated? Only won what, like 5 Super Bowls between them? Yes, overrated.

  28. The Jaguars would be foolish not to listen to any offers. They owe that to themselves. That being said I would think that the offer would have to be absurd, even though Lawrence is no GUARANTEE for whoever chooses him! Cam Newton, Jamarcus Russell were supposed to be great. And the jury is still out on Kyler Murray, Joe Burroughs, Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield.

  29. Personally im not as big a fan of Lawrence as others are so for the right deal i would do it. But it would Have to be an nfc team in the top 7 and atleast 3 firsts.

  30. The only way the jags move off Lawrence is if it’s a deal for watson, Wilson, Rodgers etc..

  31. If Jacksonville decided to trade away the # 1 pick (Lawrence),no matter what the deal,Urban Meyer would get one of his excruciating headaches and quit on the spot. I can’t see them giving up that pick,but it’s interesting to think about.

  32. I know this is the trendy thing for content starved sports sites to talk about now, but it is beyond silly. If you think Urban Meyer went to a 1-15 team, to coach a non-elite qb, or whomever they would be lucky enough to have fall to 8, you are literally smoking something. He won’t coach this team 4-5 yrs, he doesn’t have time to do a 3yr rebuild.

  33. Downvote all you want. This will not end well. Cue the moving of the team. Urb will not translate to the NFL. The roster is absurdly bad. Lawrence would have to come out the gate like a HOF MVP day one for them to get 9 wins. Seriously. He. Is. Not. That. Great.

  34. If lions were smart……

    2021 first, second, third.
    2022 first, third
    2023 first, second, fourth
    The rights to Jared Goff

  35. The number 1 overall pick may turn out to be be another Alex Smith, or Sam Bradford or JaMarcus Russell or it may well be a quarterback like Terry Bradshaw (4 Super Bowl rings), Troy Aikman (3 Super Bowl rings), Peyton Manning (2 SB rings), Eli Manning (2 SB rings), John Elway (2 SB rings) or Jim Plunkett (2 SB rings).

  36. A QB on a Super Bowl Now arc, like Green Bay with Rogers or Mahommes at KC may be beyond any price a team could offer.
    But the prospect of unknown promise yet to be realized at the Pro level is completely different. If someone wants to kneecap their organization for 1 overall and give you a haul I think you take it. Particularly if you think they will underperform and the picks will be higher than the buying team believes they will be. If you have belief in the depth of the top end of QB talent available via FA, or in the draft then even more so. Owners like Tepper, or overconfident GMS think you can spot the great QBs for sure in the draft. That they will call it right. I think it’s easier to spot the pigeon GMs ready to make a bad deal then to pick the QBs

  37. First, they’ll never trade away the opportunity to draft a once in a generation QB talent in a bazillion years. Second, how in heck did the Vikings and Cousins enter this scenario?

  38. Does anyone know the success rate of QB’S who are taken number 1 throughout the years. I think that would be a really interesting read Mike if you see this. Now with that said I cannot see why every year all the ones that think they know so much put QB’S in the number one pick. I would build my team from the outside in with my picks. Nothing against Trevor I wish the young man and all young man all the luck in the world for their NFL careers.

  39. There is only one QB I can think of since 1980 that won a Super Bowl without an amazing defense. That’s Kurt Warner. Elway lost 4 Super Bowls because he had an undersized defense with no pass rush.
    I believe Lawrence is as good as advertised. But has he ever lost? Will he be the next Cam who pouts when losing? So long as he’s not, that’s the pick.

  40. To the person saying Elwsy was wildly overrated. Did you actually watch football then? I’m a lifelong Chiefs fan and here in KC we HATED Elway. Why? Because he single handedly beat us over and over. He carried mediocre offenses on his back for years. To great success. If fact I’m willing to say, at this time he may be the most underrated qb of all time.

  41. Who has the ammo to make such a trade. Only the Jags, Miami and Jets have multiple first round picks this draft. Jets and Miami can get a top tier qb @ 2 and 3 already. So unlikely. If there is a team that starts to trade assets to accrue draft capital prior to the draft….then maybe.4 number ones +-. Houston?

    The other thing is that Lawrence can make it very clear like Elway, Eli etc that he prefers one landing spot over the other.
    Sounds like hype because Urban Meyer entered the NFL to get a prospect like TL,who grades as high as any QB ever, not play “I am in the QB hell game”

  42. charliecharger says:
    February 19, 2021 at 7:15 pm

    “About once every ten years you get a John Elway, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, or Trevor Lawrence.”


    We do not even remotely know that Trevor Lawrence is going to be in that class. I get your point – and agree – but the history books are filled with “generational prospects” who do not pan out at the NFL level.

    Meyer may not have signed on to coach the #2 prospect but doesn’t mean it isn’t the right move. Of course I don’t see Meyer making right moves. Sorry Jags.

  43. Think back about how many “sure thing” top 10 QBs there’ve been in the last 20 years. How many of them ended up fulfilling those expectations?

    And we often don’t know for 4-5 years if they’ll really work out (which is really not all on the player, for sure – the team has to do their best to set him up for success in various ways: playbook, development, talent around him, a defense that’s good enough to keep the team in games, etc.)

    Mariota and Winston both seemed on track after their rookie years. We have QBs like Goff & Wentz who were given huge extensions by their teams.

    A top talent like Lawrence will only be successful if his drafting team takes care of him and builds a good team around him. Cincy has learned what a bad O-line will do to your prized first rounder.

    My point is that the Jags wouldn’t be foolish to trade down and get a lot of picks. They could build the team with a veteran and then when other parts are in place, draft a QB.

    Lawrence – or any top prospect – isn’t a magical cure-all. An unproven QB can’t fix everything that’s wrong with a bad team. It’s a pet peeve of mine when people declare QBs “busts” when there are so many poorly managed NFL teams.

    The teams share a large portion of the blame when players fail (there are obviously exceptions to this).

  44. You can use burrow and Herbert to make your point, but what about going a little further back. The colts had leaf and manning pretty close but made the right decision. Would they have taken a couple of really high picks and leaf for the right to select manning? If they had those guys close they might have it would have been a terrible mistake. Take the best guy and roll with it.

  45. Look at the Jaguars draft history the last 20 years in the first round. 4 guys still with the team, and one year they had 2, so they are ALL on rookie deals. The Jaguars have the worst draft history of any team and it’s not even close. This is their one chance to hit a home run. Three firsts in a trade? They would bomb on all three. Don’t screw this up Stuckyville

  46. Graham Mooney says:
    February 19, 2021 at 11:45 pm
    If lions were smart……

    2021 first, second, third.
    2022 first, third
    2023 first, second, fourth
    The rights to Jared Goff
    Then the Lions would have to sign you to play WR since they don’t have any draft picks left.

  47. Mike Ditka isn’t managing any teams rosters, so I don’t think any team is going to be able to offer the farm plus more to get the Jags off the top spot.

  48. Bobo Moonshine, yeah, I did. Elway regularly got out-played by just about every other quarterback in the division throughout the eighties from Fouts to Krieg to DeBerg. Not Todd Blackledge or Marc Wilson, though. As for Elway “carrying” mediocre offenses, he did not produce enough in terms of volume to carry anything. It was Karl Mecklenburg, Steve Atwater, Mike Harden and the rest of that awesome defense that repeatedly carried the Broncos all the way to the Super Bowl where they could get properly curbstomped by whatever NFC team showed up that year. Then the nineties happened, and for most of it Elway was still not the best-performing quarterback in the AFC West with Jeff Hostetler and aging then-future Hall of Famers Joe Montana (remember him?) and Warren Moon taking that distinction nearly every year. Elway’s years on top came when the Broncos offense rode on Terrell Davis’ shoulders behind Alex Gibbs’ dominant offensive line.

  49. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did this. Meyer probably wants Trask because of the Gator selection. It would also be very popular in Jax, at least for Gators fans. It might help sell some seats to watch that terrible team from a terrible organization (starting with the owner).

  50. If the Jags are smart, I would listen to what the Jets/Panthers have to say. Then tell them – NO!

  51. I don’t see any great offers happening unless the Jets offer 3 first round picks or Houston offers Watson

  52. itsamadmadmadmadworld says:
    February 20, 2021 at 12:31 pm
    I wouldn’t be surprised if they did this. Meyer probably wants Trask because of the Gator selection. It would also be very popular in Jax, at least for Gators fans. It might help sell some seats to watch that terrible team from a terrible organization (starting with the owner).

    Jags taking Kyle Task would be popular just because of Gator Fans…..said no Jags fan ever……

  53. Scouts were saying 3 years ago when Lawrence was a frosh at Clemson he was the best college QB and would have been the 1st pick of the draft each of those 3 years. Jags trade Lawrence? No Way. Urban will get a couple of speedy WR’s to create space (stretch the field) and let Lawrence go to work. Think KC’s offense. Jags have draft capital and a ton of cap $ to spend on FA’s. I venture to guess the Jags will try to cut a big fat one with the team in position to draft Kyle Pitts (a Travis Kelce clone).

  54. Madworld,why wouldn’t Meyer want Fields for the Buckeyes connection? It won’t happen,but he is connected to both Florida and Ohio State.

  55. I have watched several Clemson games…Trevor seems to have a strong arm and runs fast..I have not seen anything that Geno Smith didn’t do in college..just sayin

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