There aren’t many teams with long-term quarterback situations

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This year’s unprecedented quarterback carousel could become the new normal. For evidence of the regular upheaval to come, look no farther than the abnormal reality that not many teams have a starting quarterback who almost certainly will still be with the team in four years.

Earlier this week on PFT Live, Simms and I tried to identify the franchises that definitely have a franchise quarterback who will still be on the roster in four years.

The list (my recollection may be off a little since it’s been a few days since we did the segment) includes Bills quarterback Josh Allen, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. (Lamar Jackson is likely to still be with the Ravens in four years, but it’s hard to call it an absolute certainty.)

In the NFC, there simply isn’t one — not one that we definitely can say will be with the team in four years. Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has the best chance of doing so. Beyond him, not one of the 15 NFC teams has a clear four-year answer at the position.

This year’s first-round picks at quarterback could become four-year answers for their new teams. Unless they don’t. Look at the 2018 class, which enters its fourth season in 2021. Of the five taken, the Cardinals traded Josh Rosen after only one year, and Sam Darnold seems to be on thin ice with the Jets.

20 responses to “There aren’t many teams with long-term quarterback situations

  1. Brady and the Bucs are currently working on a contract extension. Four years? Maybe, at this point who would bet against Brady? This Bucs fan hope he can play until he’s 50.

  2. The Bucs have a potential for 5-6 wins in their division. If they have a bye Brady only needs two wins to make it to the super bowl. That was part of Belichick’s genius. Dominance of his division kept the other 3 teams in constant coaching turnover and roster shakeups. NE didn’t win because they were in a weak division. Their division couldn’t compete with them because the Patriots were dominant.

    Dominating your division ensures you have a shot at a bye and home field advantage.

    We will see if Tom can sustain winning in Tampa like he did in NE. He certainly understands the methodology.

  3. This Bucs fan hope he can play until he’s 50.

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    If there’s anyone that could play until they’re 50 it’s Brady

  4. I would say it is unlikely that the Lamar is on the Ravens in 4 years. Can’t be last in passing and think your legs will bail you out all your career. I am not sure the Ravens ever saw Lamar as someone they would keep long term. Rodgers will be on the Packers when Lamar is playing RGIII for another young fast guy.

    Most teams don’t have a long term solution even if they think they do. Franchise QBs are fleeting and how the franchise over draft and over pay things will get worse before they get better. We are already calling Herbert a franchise guy and hasn’t a thing yet. Guy puts up some numbers in a league designed for lots offense and he is a franchise QB. Have to do it for a few years after they have some film on them before you can declare anyone a star.

    There are only 3 or 4 guys at the moment worth the QB salary teams pay for. The others over paid giving out Rodgers or Mahomes like contracts when they aren’t as good. Matt Ryan is a good QB but not good enough to take up all your cap and still make the playoffs.

  5. The unprecedented QB carousel this year is not going to be a new trend. This one happened a month after Brady won the super bowl for a team that hadn’t won a playoff game in 18 years, after switching teams. He made it look so easy, other teams are giving it a shot. Good luck with that. It’s always been a copycat league, and this year was no different. But this also a good sell to the owner. Hey owner, we’re doing everything right. No need to fire us all. Just one guy can make us all winners. Yep. There are a lot of Tom Brady’s hanging around the league. It’s very simple to find one. Why didn’t we think of that sooner? That’s music to the owner’s ears, too. The owner doesn’t want to eat a bunch of contracts if he doesn’t have to, or start in on a total re-build. But remember last year when Mahomes won the super bowl, everyone was looking for an athletic QB. The copycat stuff is never going to change.

  6. Burrows couldn’t get through a year with the Bengals. What evidence do you have that the Bengals are capable of keeping him alive for 4 years.

  7. tigerlilac says:
    March 7, 2021 at 12:26 pm
    The Bucs have a potential for 5-6 wins in their division. If they have a bye Brady only needs two wins to make it to the super bowl. That was part of Belichick’s genius. Dominance of his division kept the other 3 teams in constant coaching turnover and roster shakeups. NE didn’t win because they were in a weak division. Their division couldn’t compete with them because the Patriots were dominant.

    Dominating your division ensures you have a shot at a bye and home field advantage.

    We will see if Tom can sustain winning in Tampa like he did in NE. He certainly understands the methodology.

    5 10 Rate This

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    The pandemic and the luck of the Bucs won’t sustain because Lichr and Arians are nowhere near BBs level.

    They’ll end up like all the other paper tiger dynasties with the super high priced qbs.

  8. Like the others above, I won’t bet against Brady playing til he’s 50. I’m not naive, I know that when a player hits the age wall its usually not a gradual decline, its usually a cliff, but Brady hasn’t lost any arm strength and he’s still very good at avoiding sacks, so maybe he’ll be with the bucs for four more years. There ARE a lot of teams with no quarterback security, haven’t really seen a situation like this in 40 years of watching football. Free agency.

  9. ngatasteelersfan says:
    March 7, 2021 at 12:58 pm
    Burrows couldn’t get through a year with the Bengals. What evidence do you have that the Bengals are capable of keeping him alive for 4 years.

    28 4 Rate This

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    He’s terrible like JimmyG because he had an unfortunate injury! Didn’t ya hear?

  10. totally agree with Florida. I agree with all his AFC picks. Herbert is elite and will be with the Chargers a long time, as long as they don’t go Charger on him.

  11. Spagnolo gave the blueprint on how to beat Josh Allen in that playoff game. Expect Josh to struggle this season like what you saw with Carson Wentz after his MVP season. As long as he remains healthy, Lamar remains the best QB in his draft class.

  12. As much as I don’t like Mayfield I think he should be on this list. He’s played well enough for the Browns to keep him unless they can’t meet his contract demands.

    I think at least two of the top four QBs in this year’s draft are going to be at least four-year answers and probably three (Fields being the one in question). There’s also likely going to be some drafted in later rounds that will get an opportunity (like Dak got in Dallas) to show they can play.

  13. This year’s first-round picks at quarterback could become four-year answers for their new teams.
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    Thinking 100% of the 1st round QBs are going to be the answer for their team, HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA! That’d be the first time in over 20yrs.

  14. The Ravens were last in the league in passing YARDS because of Lamar’s legs NOW. They’re calling 25% fewer passing plays a game than the league average. And right now that is winning a lot of games. But the Ravens need to start letting him try to win with his arm to see if he can be that guy that sticks around for 4 years when his legs aren’t the elite weapon they are now. With his contract up soon, I think this is the year they have to allow him to prove himself.

  15. Are the Pats really going for Jimmy G? IF so what happens when he goes down? He does this every year…

  16. AOC is glad Al Gore invented football and discovered Mexico says:
    March 7, 2021 at 11:56 am
    Brady and the Bucs are currently working on a contract extension. Four years? Maybe, at this point who would bet against Brady? This Bucs fan hope he can play until he’s 50.

    **********

    I’m thinking many of the Bucs opponents also hope he plays until he’s 50…

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