Oddsmakers see Aaron Jones most likely landing in Miami

Divisional Round - Los Angeles Rams v Green Bay Packers
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The Packers didn’t apply the franchise tag to running back Aaron Jones. The Packers still want to sign him, but to do so they’ll have to successfully persuade him to not sign with another team.

As usual, money talks. Who will speak the most loudly?

The folks at PointsBet have identified the odds regarding Jones’ next team. The favorites, at +325, are the Dolphins. (Bet $100 to make $325.) Next on the list are the 49ers, at +375. The Packers come in third at +500.

Also on the list are the Cardinals, Jets, and Steelers (+500 each), the Seahawks (+800), the Bears (+1100), and the Falcons (+1700).

There’s a loose rule of thumb in league circles that star running backs only get big money from the team with which they became stars, and that the open market usually doesn’t result in a major payday for a tailback. (Le'Veon Bell is the exception, but he still didn’t get close to what he wanted.) The Packers clearly hope to break that trend, paying Jones less than other team have paid home-grown tailbacks — but possibly more than someone else would pay him.

It’s a risky proposition for the Packers, since nothing stops him from taking as much or more with another team. And with no state income tax in Florida, equal offers made by the Dolphins and Packers would be better in Miami.

13 responses to “Oddsmakers see Aaron Jones most likely landing in Miami

  1. They can’t afford to lose Aaron Jones, at least if they want to make another playoff run. He was a huge part of that offense that doesn’t have a lot of weapons. If they lose him they might as well trade Rodgers and start the rebuild process. Jones might be better off staying even if he has to take a little less. The QB situation in GB is much better than in Miami. However the coach is dumb and plays not to win so there is that.

  2. Why would Miami pay a lot of money for a RB, when they can get just as good a back with one of their many draft choices?

  3. Jones will be so happy to leave dismal GB…for one, Miami will let him run it in from the 1 yard line, instead of Rodgers audibling to a pass play to pad his TD passing stats…

  4. I guess experience trump a rookie who has not prove that they will be good on the NFL level. A bird in hand is better then one in the bush. Also Miami can used the draft pick on a OL or LB. Bill

  5. Franchises with a rookie QB will be willing to get a veteran RB who can be a safely valve for him. Someone who knows how to pick up a blitz and good out of the backfield to bail him out.

    Packers should be about last in this. They have Dillon and are cap strapped. Why would they put money at RB?

  6. If Miami wasn’t so desperate for a stable, productive running back, they would take the usual route and draft someone in the 1st or 2nd. Paying Aaron Jones now makes sense, and gives them the playmaker at running back they’ve been needing. We all know Miami is probably going to draft a WR with the first pick in the draft, I’d rather them get a LB or Edge/DL, then draft a RB so high.

  7. 30 Touchdowns in two seasons … the best running back the Packers have had in decades – a real game changer. It will be a sad day if we lose this guy. We don’t need another ‘common’ running back, especially since the Packer brass won’t draft a top rate wide receiver for Aaron. Last year’s draft – we got exactly one full game out of the top four picks … and that was A.J. Dillon’s game at Chicago. Sometimes it pays to have an owner.

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