Mac Jones is the clear favorite to go No. 3 overall

USA TODAY Sports

Momentum clearly is building toward the 49ers taking quarterback Mac Jones with the third overall pick in the draft. And the betting odds are reflecting it.

As of March 29, the day on which coach Kyle Shanahan and G.M. John Lynch addressed publicly the move from No. 12 to No. 3, Trey Lance was the PointsBet favorite at +130. Next came Justin Fields at +150 and Jones at +160.

Things have changed dramatically since then. Now, Jones is the -200 favorite, with Fields at +250 and Lance at +300.

In the immediate aftermath of the trade, not many pegged Jones as the likely pick. Chris Simms, who has no inside information (or so he says) but who knows Shanahan well, said that he believes it will be Jones. Others who initially thought it would be Lance or Fields listened. More importantly, wagers were made based in reliance on Simms’ assessment — and the odds changed accordingly.

Three weeks from tonight, we’ll find out pick No. 3 and the other 31 selections in round one, as the 2021 draft gets rolling.

20 responses to “Mac Jones is the clear favorite to go No. 3 overall

  1. he should be, Trey Lance and Justin Fields are projects, both should not go until the third round

  2. Poor move by 49ers. Could’ve traded up to any spot in the Top 10 and gotten him. #3 is too high. Gave up way too much.

  3. Five years from now there will be two starting NFL QBs from the ’21 draft class. They are…. Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones.

  4. No matter what Lynch and Shannahan blow smoke, no way Jimmy G. is on that team when camp opens. Niners QB’s will be Jones and Alex Smith.

  5. The NFL offseason is one of the reasons I love the NFL – it’s often very interesting, and the continual shuffle of draft pick projections is always fascinating. There’s so much time to kill and people want to talk about it so much that the discussion changes the common narrative over time.

    If there was a formula to project NFL success, teams would’ve figured it out by now. There are no guarantees, and part of that is that ownership, coaches and fans have no patience anymore. Rarely are young QBs allowed any time to develop, OR…they are the scapegoats for all of a team’s ills and often are sacrificed so that coaches and GMs can keep their jobs…and mangle the career of another young QB.

  6. Do his measurables warrant the 3rd overall pick? Absolutely not, and I say that as a Bama fan. But he will absolutely kill it in Shanahan’s system so for that team, it is not a reach. Mac Jones’ ceiling is not that of Zack Wilson, Trey Lance or Justin Fields but his floor is immeasurably higher.

  7. Alex Smith coming back to mentor a player like he did with Mahomes in Kansas City?

  8. I would have not traded up not sold on any of the passers to trade up.

    What this really is about is job security with a Young qb you get that and cap space is a bonus. Pay the old qb you are in cap hell because even numbs get paid.

  9. I think he is probably the best pick for Frisco too. He faced tough opponents as QB for Alabama and he crushed Ohio State in the National Championship game. He seems to be ready for the NFL a backup qb, without needing to sit on the bench for many years. Some people think that Frisco should pick Justin Fields, but the recent history of Ohio State quarterbacks doing poorly in the NFL does not justify that gamble. An even bigger gamble is Trey Lance, who plays ball in a small school and who has not played that many games in college. Unless Trevor Lawrence or Zach Wilson is available when Frisco picks, Mac Jones seems to be the logical choice. There is a good history of Frisco drafting quarterbacks who won national championships. Joe Montana was drafted in the second round after winning the national championship at Notre Dame. He showed the benefit of that pedigree by being cool under pressure. Joe Cool really excels in 2 minute offenses.

    In contrast Justin Fields has a terrible QB rating of around 30 when he is under pressure. That ain’t no good for a team trying to win Super Bowls.

  10. Jones clearly has the best resume/audition film… He played at a high level, in the biggest of games in college, against the best defenses college has every single week…
    Jones may or may not prove to be better than Lawrence in 2-5 years but he has the best chance…. I believe he will…

    Fields and OSU were handed the playoffs after 6 messily games and got buried by the better team…
    WHAT great defense did Trey Lance prove himself against to be worthy of 1st round?

  11. A fine player…. but because of his lack of “special” abilities….

    To give up that bounty for him was horrific.

  12. It’s always a crap shoot but Jones practically screams “overrated thanks to his team.” He looked great playing with all the 5-stars but how is that going to translate to the NFL where you don’t always have clean pockets and your receivers can’t just run by the entire defense?

  13. It amuses me how people point out Mitch Trubisky’s failings in the NFL but are still on the Trey Lance hype train. This is the EXACT SAME situation except that the level of competition Lance faced was even worse than Trubisky.

  14. He benefitted greatly by being on the best college team money can buy. He won’t have that luxury in the NFL. I think he’ll be about as successful as guys like Greg McElroy (7th round), A.J. McCarron (5th round) and Brodie Croyle (3rd round). The same could be said for Josh Heupel, Jason White, Sam Bradford and Landry Jones. Just because one is a star in college does not mean they’ll be successful in the NFL–especially at QB.

    I have nothing against Mac Jones. I just think he’s vastly over-rated because he plays for a team that’s absolutely loaded and a scrub could win with that team.

  15. I think he’ll be a great selection if it turns out to be him. But then why move up to #3? Could have got him at #6.

  16. If it doesn’t work out, a bazillion people will be bringing up Chicago-Trubisky comparisons. The pressure coming for this QB pick is going to be unfair.

  17. I think Mac Jones is wired like an elite QB, and can become an elite QB in the right situation. I just wouldn’t bet 3 first round picks on it: There’s not anyt tangible elite trait that I can bet on.

    There’s only one person that knows if Mac Jones is going to be an elite NFL QB, and that’s the man himself – Mac Jones

  18. I just saw one mock draft with Frisco picking Justin Fields and Trey Lance as the next quarterback picked, instead of Mac Jones. That mock draft has the Falcons picking a TE early in the draft instead of a QB. So, there is no consensus on which QB will be picked after Lawrence and Wilson. Mock drafts should be mocked. NFL drafts are more unpredictable than the NCAA basketball bracket because NFL teams can trade up and down the drafting order but matchups cannot be changed in the NCAA tournament.

  19. Another draft analyst compares Mac Jones to Mitch Trubisky. There is one big difference though. Trubiksy was from a small school, just like Trey Lance, but Mac Jones is a Crimson Tide alum with a national championship AND Heisman Trophy nomination. Further, the 9ers have Jimmy G., so they do not need to start whichever quarterback they draft right away. I think it is the equivalent of Chicken Little warning the 49ers that the sky will fall down if they pick Mac Jones.

  20. People who want Frisco to cut or trade Jimmy G. are turning their attention to Mac Jones. They are “warning” Frisco that Mac Jones will be a bust, that he will be no better than Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins, and that they should draft Trey Lance or Justin Fields instead. Looks like they are rooting for failure. They want the 49ers to fail by not drafting Mac Jones.

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