Taking a look at the top 10 picks, with 16 days to go

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The 2021 draft is coming. Our one, and only one, mock draft is coming. Eventually.

For now, let’s take a look at how the first 10 picks may go, based on things we’re hearing and various reports and rumors and other information making the rounds only 16 days from the launch of round one.

No. 1, Jaguars: They’ll surely take quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

No. 2, Jets: They’ll most likely take quarterback Zach Wilson. If they don’t, they’ve made no effort to push back against the presumption that Wilson is the guy. Which will set the stage for a P.R. nightmare if the pick ultimately is, for example, Justin Fields.

No. 3, 49ers: They essentially control the board, and they have no reason to be coy. Some think they’re embracing the mystery, if for no reason other than to enjoy the attention to the brand that comes from it. Others think they’re doing their due diligence. Regardless, they’ve made a huge investment (three ones and a three) for one player; presumably, they had a good idea who the player would be before making the move. Many think that quarterback Mac Jones will be the pick. Others think it will be quarterback Trey Lance or quarterback Justin Fields. Regardless, it will be a quarterback.

No. 4, Falcons: Here’s where it gets interesting. The Falcons could go with a quarterback, they could take the first non-quarterback off the board, or they could trade down. They’re sending signals that they’re looking at a quarterback, but that’s possibly to get maximum value for the pick if/when they trade.

No. 5, Bengals: Tackle Penei Sewell is expected to be the pick, but they also could go with tight end Kyle Pitts or receiver Ja’Marr Chase or one of the Alabama receivers, Jaylen Waddle or Devonta Smith. They also could trade out of the spot for a team, like the Broncos, that may want to jump up for which quarterback is left.

No. 6, Dolphins: They’re expected to take a receiver, with Chase and Waddle believed by some to be higher on their board than Smith. (The fact that Chase opted out in 2020 due to the pandemic could boost Waddle, at it relates to this specific selection.) They also could take Kyle Pitts.

No. 7, Lions: They have plenty of needs. It will be interesting to see what they do if Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields remains on the board. Will former OSU standout Chris Spielman, who has much more power and influence in the building than most realize, be able to resist drafting Fields? Jared Goff seems to be a short-term fix. If he flamed out in L.A., why would he be expected to perform significantly better in Detroit? Thus, if Fields is there, maybe he’s the pick.

No. 8, Panthers: After trading for quarterback Sam Darnold, they can take the best player available. Would they take a quarterback if one of the top players slips through the cracks? They have a two-year commitment to Darnold, and they could in theory fall out of love with him after a year, the same way they fell out of love with Teddy Bridgewater after a year.

No. 9, Broncos: They clearly want an upgrade at quarterback. The question is whether there will be one they like at nine, whether they’ll have to trade up, or whether they’ll just kick the can — especially if they can add Teddy Bridgewater to a depth chart that includes Drew Lock.

No. 10, Cowboys: Dallas needs defense. They could end up with the first defensive player in the draft. The question is whether they can resist the temptation to tight end Kyle Pitts if he’s there at No. 10, or the possible opportunity to trade up to get him.

31 responses to “Taking a look at the top 10 picks, with 16 days to go

  1. The Jets may not pick Zach Wilson, even if practically everybody has predicted that they will. They may take Mac Jones or Justin Fields instead. In fact the Jaguars may not even pick Trevor Lawrence because he did not do so well against Justin Fields and he failed to win the national championship in 2020. One thing for sure, Shanahan and Lynch will not be bullied into taking a quarterback they do not plan to take. They will pick who they think is the best one available.

  2. californianewton says:

    Shanahan and Lynch will not be bullied into taking a quarterback they do not plan to take. They will pick who they think is the best one available…
    ———————-
    They could have picked Russel Wilson for what they gave up. Nobody will bully them, but they put themselves in a spot that its tough for this pick to be a winner. For that haul you better get #1 overall or pass.

  3. Jared Goff has a huge salary. The Lions may pick a quarterback so they have insurance against Goff not working out.

  4. californianewton says:
    April 13, 2021 at 8:52 pm

    In fact the Jaguars may not even pick Trevor Lawrence because he did not do so well against Justin Fields and he failed to win the national championship in 2020.
    _____________________________________________________________________________________

    Lol. Stop. They’re drafting Trevor Lawrence. Majority of QB’s drafted #1 overall did not win a National Championship.

  5. “…they’ve made a huge investment (three ones and a three) for one player…”

    No, it’s actually two ones and a three. It’s still a huge investment but they haven’t given up three first round picks.

    I love the balls on the FO to make this move. Fingers crossed it works out but if it doesn’t I’m still glad they did it

  6. Hasn’t anyone learned yet that Ohio State is incapable of producing starting quality NFL QB’s. It is immaterial what they did in college — OSU QB’s just suck in the NFL.

    Remember that guy the WTF picked in the first round in 2019? Anyone recall Art Schlichter (showing my age)? Cardale Jones? Troy Smith? Etc.. Great in College. Went Nowhere in the NFL. OSU has never produced even a decent QB.

    That is why no one should touch and OSU QB.

  7. californianewton says:
    April 13, 2021 at 8:58 pm
    Jared Goff has a huge salary. The Lions may pick a quarterback so they have insurance against Goff not working out.

    37 8 Rate This
    ______________________________________________

    Can’t see it’d necessarily be a bad move, the Lions are fully committed to a rebuild since they brought in a new GM and HC. Since they’re committed financially to Goff for the next 2 years if they have a QB they like and that they think they can develop fall to them at 7 then I don’t think it’d hurt them to grab him, sit him behind Goff to groom, and either hand the keys over to him or if Goff pans out then trade the dude for multiple draft picks/players.

  8. Lookout if the Lions get another shut down corner for years to come. That would be nice for that team.

  9. Jets will likely take Wilson and 49ers Fields. But I would not be surprised if the reverse happened and both teams knew all along.

  10. The only QB that could possibly be worth 3 first and a third is Jones… His audition tape is impressive and if translates to NFL then they are set for years!

    Fields, Lance, no other qb has college game tape worthy of such a price to pay… Jones is worth the risk because of his college career… Anyone else and they bust will make the 9ers a laughing stock for many years….

  11. As a Bengals fan who intently watched the 2020 title game between Burrow and Lawrence, I don’t get the Lawrence hype. Burrow looked like the superior QB. He didn’t shrink in the moment. Every throw was on point. Lawrence was all over the place and often lacked touch and accuracy. He’s still a good prospect, but I don’t see why he’s getting Luck comparisons.

  12. If the QB that SF wants isn’t on the board at 3, they could always trade out of that spot to a team that does.

  13. They could have picked Russel Wilson for what they gave up.

    No chance in heck that Seattle trades Russ in the division.

  14. The best route runner and the best hands in the draft belong to Devonta Smith, whoever drafts him is getting the offensive rookie of the year. I just hope it’s my Phins.

  15. Best guess is Fields is #3. Seems to fit a Kyle Shanahan offense better than Mac Jones and has more experience than Lance. Plus I think he has the skill set to hit the field faster than Jones and Lance, we shall see!

  16. I don’t see Dallas giving up picks to move up. They’ve got too many needs on defense and can use all the picks they can get. And if the first nine picks are all offensive players like you’re suggesting here, it wouldn’t surprise me if Dallas actually dropped down a few spots to acquire more picks.

  17. The Bengals need to protect Burrow. That should be their number one priority. Many fans don’t like O-linemen being drafted early because it’s not exciting. But building a good O-line is where teams start to crawl back to relevance. Otherwise your shiny, new QB is just gonna be hurt all the time.

  18. I’ve heard the theory that the 49ers love Zach Wilson and their plan all along was to move to 3 so they could make a draft day swap with the Jets to move up one spot. The Jets, presumably, don’t have Wilson all that much higher on their draft chart than at least one other QB but wouldn’t like to slide so far down that they missed out on him. I think Wilson is an ideal fit in Shanahan’s offense so this makes a lot of sense.

  19. If the Jets don’t take Wilson, then they did a good job of letting the world convince themselves to believe a fantasy. It’s not a PR nightmare is the Jets pick Justin Fields.
    The only nightmare the Jets face is if the QB they draft is yet another bust. No team is under pressure to push back against media narratives.

  20. Jared Goff seems to be a short-term fix. If he flamed out in L.A., why would he be expected to perform significantly better in Detroit?
    ——-

    DeAndre Swift. Goff did just fine until Gurley went down.

  21. My prediction is that someone trades up to 4 (I’m guessing Denver) and we get QBs selected with the 1st 4 picks, none of which is Mac Jones.

    Lawrence to Jags
    Wilson to Jets
    Lance to 49ers
    Fields to Broncos

  22. The pendulum has to start swinging back. If 5 QBs go in the top 10, how many could possibly pan out? For every Peyton Manning it seems like there are 3 or 4 Mitch Trubiskys. It’s insane to keep playing that lottery every year. How about building a team around elite pass rushers?

  23. If DK Metcalf and N’Keal Harry were still both on the board, stubborn BB would still choose Harry!

  24. It’s comical how SF fans keep rationalizing the trade to get to the 3rd pick in the draft by saying they only gave up 2 #1s and a #3, not 3 #1s.

    Everyone understands the math but the fact is they will invest 3 #1s and a #3 in one player, that’s 4 players for 1 player.

    It might turn out as a great trade/selection for SF and it might not. That said, it doesn’t appear to be good value as of right now given round 1 QB history. If their pick turns out to be the second coming of Round 1 picks Peyton Manning or Mahomes SF will be proved correct in their trade assessment.

  25. feadshipman says:
    April 14, 2021 at 5:54 am
    The best route runner and the best hands in the draft belong to Devonta Smith, whoever drafts him is getting the offensive rookie of the year. I just hope it’s my Phins.
    <
    Doesn't matter if Smith sets the league on fire and is All-Pro, they'll still give OROY to a QB.

  26. The fact everyone is assuming the Bengals are taking a pass catcher shows how little everyone thinks of the Bengals and an organization that does business different than everyone else. The Bengals definitely need to fix the Oline, even if it is at the expense of Chase and Burrow not reuniting. They have had one of the worst Olines in the league for a decade and they are a shoe in for a pass catcher. If your QB gets a blown ACL behind one of the worst Olines in the NFL and your solution is to give him someone to throw to, its just such a Bengals move.

    Also I beleive Miami is likely to take Chase or Pitts if he is there but dont rule out Sewell if Chase and Pitts go before 6. Jackson was one of the leagues worst LTs last year and their RT Hunt could move inside to guard so Sewell makes sense there at 2 positions.

    If Fields dropped to 7 the Lions would have to be INSANE not to take Fields even if it is a long term play. He is way to gifted to pass on at 7 and I would expect him to go no later than that.

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