Justin Fields is now the betting favorite to go third overall

USA TODAY Sports

On March 29, North Dakota St. quarterback Trey Lance was the favorite to be the third overall pick in the draft. Then, Alabama quarterback Mac Jones became the favorite. Now, there’s a third favorite to go third overall.

PointsBet has made Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields the favorite to become the pick of the 49ers at No. 3

Currently, Fields has odds of -125 for to hear his name called as the third player picked, two weeks from tonight. Jones is +100, and Lance is +450.

On March 29, Lance was the favorite at +130. Fields had odds of +150, and Jones stood at +160. By April 8, Jones moved to -200 favorite, with Fields at +250 and Lance at +300.

Now, it’s Fields.

The reason for the shift isn’t clear. Surely, the 49ers aren’t investing three first-round picks and a third-round pick without having a damn good idea as to their intended selection. There’s a fine line, frankly, between building a mystery and creating the impression that the 49ers traded up without a firm and specific plan.

Also, keep this simple reality of the NFL’s ultimate reality show in mind. For the same reason that the powers-that-be don’t want picks to be tipped during the draft, they also don’t want a bunch of picks to be set in stone before the draft begins. Already, it’s widely presumed that the Jaguars will take Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 and the Jets will take Zach Wilson at No. 2. If the 49ers make their plans known, why tune in for the first hour of the draft?

So don’t be surprised if reporters and analysts who work for the networks that will televise the draft to try to keep the plans at No. 3 and beyond as vague and uncertain as possible, for as long as possible. Indeed, why would anyone watch the ultimate reality show is the ultimate reality already is known?

56 responses to “Justin Fields is now the betting favorite to go third overall

  1. You don’t trade all that for Mac Jones. Not sure I would for any of the QBs not named Lawrence. Aren’t going to get more than two good QBs out of this bunch. Sorry. I know at this time everyone thinks 5 starters are coming out of the draft but QBs have been over drafted ever since the rookie wage scale and 5th year option.

  2. Throw down a hundy on Lance and a couple more on Fields and come home with at least one extra hundy in your pocket because Jones ain’t it.

  3. It’s the so called insiders spewing on their networks without having a clue about what is going to happen. Jay Glazer is the only one of them worth their salt.

  4. I called Hurts out as “one that got away” last year and nailed it. If Fields drops this year he’s my current pick for this years “one that got away”.

  5. BuckyBadger says:
    April 15, 2021 at 7:00 pm
    You don’t trade all that for Mac Jones. Not sure I would for any of the QBs not named Lawrence. Aren’t going to get more than two good QBs out of this bunch. Sorry. I know at this time everyone thinks 5 starters are coming out of the draft but QBs have been over drafted ever since the rookie wage scale and 5th year option.

    ————————

    They have been over drafted but by spots not rounds. Drafting a guy at #3 instead of #15, the player should be a starter on a team with decent coaching. But when QBs are going to the Jets, the Jaguars, the Bears… what do you think is going to happen? How many top 20 quarterbacks have those three teams developed in the last twenty years?

  6. This would make sense. Jones could have been had with a trade at 9 with Denver for less compensation. I think Fields would have been taken by Atlanta at 4 so they had to get to 3. Will be fun to find out…

  7. Can we just admit we have no clue who is going where after the first pick?

  8. Just has always seemed like the pick to me. Why would they have had to trade up for Jones? He wasn’t even considered a first rounder until this year. Fields reminds me of a young Cam Newton, and that coupled with the Shanahan running game would be a very intriguing fit.

  9. If 1 and 2 goes as expected then 3 has to be Fields, dude is a proven winner and would give Shanahan a QB weapon he’s never had before. If somehow it isn’t Fields then the only one else it could be is Lance, you don’t trade 2 1st round picks to move up and select a guy in Mac Jones who would have been there for them to take at their original slot of 12 anyways.

  10. People will lose a lot of money combined betting on the draft. No way the nfl and Vegas are going to not collude on these picks if there is money to be made.

  11. Joel Buchsbaum was the best talent evaluator outside of NFL personnel and he was even better then many of them. He would be the only one I would trust to tell me who was the third best QB.

  12. Fields threw to wide open guys against Clemson who looked asleep mentally in the playoffs. Even then he under threw some passed and seemed lost reading defenses at times.
    Not saying he could not be coached to figure that out but he is a project of at least a year and could easily be a bust.

  13. Fields is absolutely a bust. Any talk about this guy being a winner is ridiculous. He had one good playoff game, one. All I can hope is that as a Bucs fan the Falcons do what the Falcons do and draft this bust.

  14. I watch the draft every year. The only two constants that happen each and every time : (#1)-The Seahawks trade down & (#2)-The minute the analysts have me convinced they have the next pick figured out, they are proven wrong. Oh, wait…..one more constant (#3)-After being wrong the analyst(s) all discuss and rationalize the pick as if they were right.

  15. Kyle Shannahan has been bromancing over Cousins since their days in DC. I’d lean toward him preferring Jones over Fields. I could be wrong. He’s more accurate than the rest. I’d take the bargain with Trask a round later. JMHO.

  16. This doesn’t mean anything unless you’re betting. Just ask all the people with KC to the over SB tickets

  17. The Moon Knight says:
    April 15, 2021 at 8:39 pm
    Fields threw to wide open guys against Clemson who looked asleep mentally in the playoffs. Even then he under threw some passed and seemed lost reading defenses at times.
    Not saying he could not be coached to figure that out but he is a project of at least a year and could easily be a bust.

    ———

    I haven’t watched the guys whole career, but I saw the same thing you did in that game. Underthrowing or late on the delivery, making guys wait. He wasn’t throwing dimes. Could have been a one off, or else he’s a project.

  18. If I’m John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan I place a $1M bet today on two of those QBs.

  19. Not a Chance. Why isn’t any team buying into Justin Fields?

    Why won’t anyone say it out loud???

    Last 5 OSU QB’s
    JT Barrett
    Troy Smith
    Dwayne Haskins
    Terrell Prior
    Cardale Jones

  20. I remember when there wasn’t a consensus best QB when the Chiefs had their #1 overall pick, and they used it on Eric Fisher. Some of these teams constantly picking in the top 5 need to stop and realize you build the team first, then when a QB is worth it, trade into the top 10. I honestly can’t remember the last time I’ve seen that happen.

  21. jeremycrowhurst says:
    April 15, 2021 at 7:27 pm
    BuckyBadger says:
    April 15, 2021 at 7:00 pm
    You don’t trade all that for Mac Jones. Not sure I would for any of the QBs not named Lawrence. Aren’t going to get more than two good QBs out of this bunch. Sorry. I know at this time everyone thinks 5 starters are coming out of the draft but QBs have been over drafted ever since the rookie wage scale and 5th year option.

    ————————

    They have been over drafted but by spots not rounds. Drafting a guy at #3 instead of #15, the player should be a starter on a team with decent coaching. But when QBs are going to the Jets, the Jaguars, the Bears… what do you think is going to happen? How many top 20 quarterbacks have those three teams developed in the last twenty years?

    ——————-

    Paxton Lynch would have been a 4th round QB before the change in rookie deals. Jordan Love no more than a 3rd. Sam Darnold and his small hands are a late 2nd in 2000. It wasn’t uncommon to see only 2 QB go in the 1st not that long ago. Now 3 go in top ten regularly. You aren’t paying attention.

  22. I’m not sold on Fields, the dude looks body wise like another Cam Newton. Is that good or bad? Asa Pats fan, unless Fields falls, I want zero part of him. I’ve always been a pocket passer fan and I’m still not sold on all these athletic qbs. Yeah sure it’s a skill set, but a true pocket passer with an arm and a brain can move the ball doing what a qb should be able to and that’s passing the ball. Fields has all the athletic ability but seldom looks to more then his first read. That doesn’t say much in the NFL, yeah in NCAA that’s awesome because u can but in the NFL it’s way different. Jackson is the best running qb in the NFL but he hadn’t won a SB and that’s all I care about as a fan, exciting play or plays doesn’t do much for me and league MVP I could careLESS about.

  23. Ohhhh help me football gods, I am scared to death we mortgaged our future on a crap shoot for unproven college QB’s! Fields: An awesome athlete but I mean you cannot get past the facts….A OSU QB has NEVER succeeded….I mean we are talking back to Art the Fart Schliester (since he was a bust) and started the list! All the Draft Cap for an OSU QB? Same thoughts on a post Stabler Bama QB….none have been good. Shanahan scaring me to death here that we will be in Draft Purgatory for 3 years! I just don’t believe in that kind of spending on a College Boy QB who has not faced grown men making a living and the best!…its just too much of a risk and crap shoot! I was hoping they would spend that kind of Draft Cap on a proven star QB. Runnin’ scared and worried.

  24. Anyone use to be able to count the first 15 picks, or so. Just about any player, other than a QB, would be counted on to be a starter. QB’s were not counted on yo start right away. Some QB’s sat the first season. Some sat 3/4 of the season, while others sat a few games. Only the exceptional QB won a starting position after the first summer camp. Now it become a crap shoot. Now teams are weighing ‘long term’ potential. Some teams are ignoring their current needs. If you draft a QB in the first 15 picks, that team wants him to be the starter when the season starts. Since that QB get big money, they expect him to earn. The pressure is on that QB from day one. I think that’s why so many early first round QB draft choices are considered busts. They can’t handle that added pressure. Trevor Lawrence is the only one I would have faith in to handle that added pressure. I think the rest are a crap shoot. But every team is looking for that ‘franchise QB’.

  25. Fields and Lawrence are the only ones who showed heart after taking big hits in college. Everything else is chatter.

  26. Whether a QB is bust or not depends on a lot where he lands. Mahomes sat a year and was guided by Reid. If he goes to the Jets year one and starts, you will not get the same QB. So many variables! Brady is still distraught over 6 QBs before him. Dude, that is the best thing that ever hap
    pened to you!!

  27. Mac Jones is still the favorite within the 49er organization. That is what really counts.

  28. jeremycrowhurst says:
    April 15, 2021 at 7:27 pm
    BuckyBadger says:
    April 15, 2021 at 7:00 pm
    You don’t trade all that for Mac Jones. Not sure I would for any of the QBs not named Lawrence. Aren’t going to get more than two good QBs out of this bunch. Sorry. I know at this time everyone thinks 5 starters are coming out of the draft but QBs have been over drafted ever since the rookie wage scale and 5th year option.

    ————————

    They have been over drafted but by spots not rounds. Drafting a guy at #3 instead of #15, the player should be a starter on a team with decent coaching. But when QBs are going to the Jets, the Jaguars, the Bears… what do you think is going to happen? How many top 20 quarterbacks have those three teams developed in the last twenty years?
    —————————————

    I think this is the key point and the bottom line of all of this. A young QB, no matter who, can’t step into a bad franchise and bear all the weight and expectations of being the savior of everything.

    The team needs to develop the QB, play to his strengths as much as possible, not put him on the field until he’s ready, and build the team around him on both sides of the ball.

    I hate it when a QB gets thrown to the wolves before he’s ready (which is most of the time) and then is labeled a “bust” because fans and media are too lazy look beyond the busted narrative that the QB deserves all of the credit/blame.

  29. In my view this has been mismanaged by the Niners from the start. If this is all because Jimmy G gets injured too much, so be it. But if they wanted Mac Jones, they should have swapped with the Eagles at 6. Even if Fields slipped, and they still drafted Jones, there wouldn’t be a fan outcry or talking head outcry. I’m sure Fields will be fine, he can run fast and he is big and strong, but I haven’t seen that translate into NFL playoff success. The only game I saw him play was against Indiana, and he looked more Troy Smith than Patrick Mahomes in that game.

  30. The Draft is like the Oscar. There is the movie you think that deserves to win and there is the movie you know it’s going to win.

  31. To be clear, Fields becomes the betting favorite because people are betting on him, not because the Sportsbooks actually think he is the likely pick. Average people believe Fields is better, so the sportsbook adjusts the line based on the bets coming in. Could someone have inside information and have made a large bet? Sure.

    But if Fields is really the choice, why the hell would the 49ers pick Mac Jones’ pro day over Fields originally? Wouldn’t you want to go see the quarterback you likely were going to pick? Fields eventually scheduled a second pro day, but I just don’t buy the idea that they want anyone other than Jones. Unless Jones’ pro day was absolutely awful, it just doesn’t make sense to give up 3 first round picks and then go to the pro day of a prospect you don’t want.

    I’d much prefer Fields over Mac Jones, but I really think the 49ers are going to take Jones. Not because the “talking heads” are saying it, but because everything the 49ers have done since they made that trade screams Mac Jones.

    One thing is clear though: None of us have any idea if Jones, Fields or Lance will be the best quarterback. Go look at comments on the Chiefs drafting Patrick Mahomes, almost everyone said that was a reach since Mahomes had been projected mid-to-late first round, not top 10. And that worked out just fine.

  32. “I called Hurts out as “one that got away” last year and nailed it.”
    _________

    52% completions, 6 TDs vs 4 INTs is “nailing it”?

  33. I kinda miss Mike Mayock. He was the only guy doing mock drafts that I paid a lot of attention to before the NFL draft each year. This year, all that draft stuff is going in one ear and out the other. As an “Overrated State University” hater, I never gave much respect to their QBs but Justin Fields is different. Anyone that can do what he did against Clemson while hurting pretty badly is a “winner” and I think a team that drafts him will be a winner also.

  34. As some others are saying, the success of the quarterbacks depends on the team that they go to.

    Teams with poor coaches and poor offensive schemes and mediocre offensive lines tend to make quarterbacks look bad.

    Having said that…..only the teams know who they will pick. The “expert” talking heads know nothing. The GMs and Head Coaches know a lot more than the so-called experts on TV…..and they always lie about who they like before the draft.

  35. Even if Fields turns out to be another Terrell Pryor, Frisco still has Jimmy G. That is why they almost certainly will not trade Jimmy G. before the 2021 season starts.

  36. I just read an article that says Jimmy G. is one of the 5 worst starters on the team. If that is true, then which NFL team would trade for him, with his $25 million a year salary? Jimmy G. was 3-3 as starter in 2020, and the other starting quarterbacks were 3-7. Jimmy G. is 22-8 as 49er starter, while the other starters combined for losing record for Kyle Shanahan as head coach. He is quite simply the best quarterback the 49ers have had since Kap, and may even be the best since Steve Young retired. It is simply ridiculous the way some people are trashing Jimmy G. They apparently want the 9ers to get rid of him, but getting rid of him without finding a better replacement is just a solution looking for a problem. Heck Steve Young was 2-3 in the year the 49ers won the Super Bowl. So Jimmy G. had the same win-loss record as Steve Young did in the 95 season after 6 games. How bad can Jimmy G. be? Give me a break.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to leave a comment. Not a member? Register now!

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.