Unprecedented run of quarterbacks likely in Round 1

College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic - Clemson v Notre Dame
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The NFL draft has never had four quarterbacks go off the board within the first eight picks, or five quarterbacks in the Top 10. Both of those could happen on Thursday night.

It goes without saying that the first three picks will be quarterbacks, with the Jaguars set to take Trevor Lawrence first, the Jets taking Zach Wilson second and the 49ers choosing among Mac Jones, Trey Lance and Justin Fields third.

This will be just the third draft ever with quarterbacks going 1-2-3. It previously happened in 1999 (Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith) and in 1971 (Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning and Dan Pastorini).

But the fourth quarterback could go as high as fourth overall, and is highly likely to be off the board by No. 8. Never before have four quarterbacks gone that high; the highest the fourth quarterback has ever gone off the board was ninth overall, way back in 1949, when John Rauch went second overall, Stan Heath went fifth, bobby Thomason went seventh and Frank Tripucka went ninth.

And there’s a good chance that all five of the top quarterbacks will be off the board in the Top 10, something that has never happened before.

NFL teams are increasingly deciding that drafting a quarterback is the fastest way to turn around a franchise’s fortune, and college football is increasingly churning out quarterbacks who are ready to play right away. This year will likely see an unprecedented run on quarterbacks, but it may soon become the norm.

17 responses to “Unprecedented run of quarterbacks likely in Round 1

  1. There are no guarantees with Lawrence, and everyone else is a crapshoot. It really depends on which team selects them. Some are patient and smart, most are not. Most of these guys will get thrown to the wolves far too soon, and then everyone will shake their heads and call them “busts”.

    If the team doesn’t properly develop the guy, how can he succeed?

  2. “This will be just the third draft ever with quarterbacks going 1-2-3. It previously happened in 1999 (Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith) and in 1971 (Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning and Dan Pastorini).”

    If history is any guide may not be the best idea.

  3. If there are 5 QB’s off the board in the top 10 it means teams like Detroit and Carolina got rich gathering more picks for next year.

  4. And while everyone is so certain that the first two are such runaway legends, take note that the last time this happened in 1998, only ONE of them panned out as a true franchise (and it WASN’T the 1st guy taken), and none of them are in the Hall of Fame. Media and fans need to cool it with these constant proclamations about Lawrence and Wilson being such guaranteed no-brainer home runs.

  5. Jordan Love would be a top ten pick this year. Green Bay got him late in the first last year and he gets to develop behind Rodgers for 2-3 years THEN take over a QB-friendly offense like San Fran runs.

    Sounds like a terrible plan.

  6. It’s a lot like grocery shopping: if you wait until you are hungry to go to the store, you’re going to come home with some junk.

  7. This QB class has the potential to be a complete bust taking the fact of being thrown into organizations that are poor without decent line players

  8. I’ll check out the picks on Friday. I’d rather watch the Dog Barking Channel Thursday at 8, followed by Babies Crying on Planes at 9.

  9. I disagree that these QB’s are ready to play right away. Lance and Justin are full of potential but will need at least a season before they should play.

  10. History shows 1 or 2 have a slight chance of panning out and the other 3 epic fails…

    Lawrence – Bust… Jaguars offense isn’t known to be loaded with talent and college coaches turn pro haven’t been known to be more successful than not…

    Wilson – Bust… the Jets are usually just brutal on qbs…

    Jones – has a chance.. 49ers have structure to protect qbs and Shanahans qbs just need to be accurate which Jones is one of the best at..

    Fields – Maybe a chance… depends on which team and how quickly they start him..

    Lance – Bust… if they had a combine, I believe he would have shown to be 2nd or most likely 3rd round value BUT because there was not one, the media hyped this guy to add more to talk about but his short resume and limited experience raises his chance at bust more than success…

  11. There is a good reason for that. Quarterback salaries have gone though the roof after Da Presott got his new contract extension. It is simply more economical to draft one than to extend the rookie contract of a quarterback that has not lived up to expectations. Quarterbacks who have been more successful are undoubtedly looking for more pay than what Prescott has, and it is tough on the salary cap of teams that want to win a championship. It is far easier to build a winning team with a quarterback who is not making 35-40 million dollars per season.

  12. My soothsayer credentials have expired and I have no clue who will be a successful QB in the NFL and who won’t. I don’t believe there’s anyone else who does either but it’s fun speculating. This years draft is loaded with possibilities for failure. Take Penei Sewell for example. He didn’t play a down in 2020 and there are many others in the same boat. How does a team make a decison on drafting a player who hasn’t played in a season or in whose competition was less than spectacular. This year’s draft is a “crap shoot.” I will be watching the NFL Network though for the first 2 rounds. I recall the Rams taking Tayvon Austin at #8 in 2013 and he never really reached stardom. He’s the same size as DeVonta Smith. I believe Austin’s size was a real problem for him.

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