Report: Chances of a Jimmy Garoppolo trade during the draft are “remote”

San Francisco 49ers v New York Jets
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At a time when momentum has been building toward a potential Jimmy Garoppolo trade before or during the draft, a hose has been turned on the possibility of a transaction of this kind, at least for now.

Adam Schefter of ESPN reports that the chances of a Garoppolo trade during the draft are “remote.”

Here’s the full tweet from Schefter: “Multiple teams are expected to contact the 49ers today to inquire about the availability of QB Jimmy Garoppolo, per sources. But as of early this morning, the chances of him being traded are, in the words of one source, ‘remote.’ Let’s see if anything changes in next 72 hours.”

Here’s our analysis of the report.

First, the term “per sources” gets thrown around more and more often by reporters when, in reality, there’s a single source. In this case, the most likely source for the information in the tweet is agent Don Yee. (Schefter briefly served on the advisory board of Yee’s aborted Pacific Pro Football league.) Undoubtedly, Yee is the “one source” who described the chances of a trade as “remote.”

Second, Yee represents Garoppolo. Yee knows that no one will trade for Garoppolo’s $25 million compensation package, and that an adjustment of it will be needed. Yee knows that, with none of the money guaranteed, the 49ers most likely won’t agree to pay part of the salary to facilitate a trade. (It’s not an impossibility, since the 49ers could justify the financial investment by pointing to the draft-pick compensation they receive.)

With Garoppolo’s willingness or lack thereof to take a significant pay cut the key to any trade, Garoppolo’s agent is the source best situated to reliably declare that a trade is currently a “remote” possibility. Yee knows (or should know) which teams are seriously interested (the Patriots, Texans, and Bears are the most likely options) and what any interested teams would pay Garoppolo. If the number is in the range of $10 million (as it should be), Yee and Garoppolo may have decided to let it play out beyond the draft.

Third, “multiple teams” technically means “more than one.” And the report isn’t that those teams will contact the 49ers; the report is that they are simply expected to do so. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t.

Fourth, those potentially interested teams fall out of contention only if they address their quarterback situations in the draft. If they don’t, a trade remains a possibility later.

As Simms and I explained it on Thursday’s PFT Live, the 49ers — who are moving on from Garoppolo because of his inability to stay healthy — surely would like to avoid the risk of a Garoppolo injury during training camp or the preseason, since a season-ending snap, crackle, or pop would cost the team $24.1 million in base salary.

This makes the start of training camp the viable deadline for trading Garoppolo. The safest approach would be to trade Garoppolo before the start of OTAs, since some players have gotten themselves injured during these supposedly low-intensity practices.

The challenge for the 49ers and Garoppolo/Yee is simple. When is the right time to do a deal? While the 49ers could get more later if a starter elsewhere gets injured, the 49ers risk Garoppolo becoming the guy who gets injured. And while Garoppolo could get at or close to his $25 million if a contending team becomes desperate due to serious injury or worse, he risks getting nothing if he’s cut by the 49ers on the eve of the regular season, at a time when depth charts elsewhere are set.

20 responses to “Report: Chances of a Jimmy Garoppolo trade during the draft are “remote”

  1. Jimmy G IS NOT going to take a pay cut and nobody is willing to pick up that contract given his injury history. This is just not happening. Besides. If they get the QB they want they are not going to pay him to hold a clipboard for that kind of money.

  2. Nobody is going to trade for jimmy and take on that contract for an injury prone player like jimmy. The question becomes when are the 9ers going to cut jimmy G.

  3. NFL draft propoganda fog translation- James Richard Garoppolo will definitely be traded during the draft.

  4. The 49ers will draft Trey Lance and keep Garoppolo on the roster for another year so Lance can be eased in.

  5. Garoppolo will not be traded because no one wants him.
    Instead the 49ers will draft a QB.
    If the QB looks good they can cut Garoppolo in August.
    Or they can can wait until near the start of the season and ask Garoppolo to take a pay cut or be cut.

    Garoppolo has no leverage. Look how little teams paid Winston, Mariota, and Trubisky. I don’t think Bortles is even on a team. Garoppolo will be a very good backup, but it will be hard to get a spot so late in the year.
    Alternatively he can stay with the 49ers at a reduced salary.

  6. Means no team wants an expensive injury prone QB.
    They’ll wait until he’s cut.

  7. They could give him away, pay off etc but since they aren’t doing a Goff/Osweiller deal, it might just be the obvious: Draft Trey Lance. JG can start and Lance can hold the clipboard and wait for the inevitable. At minimum, he will watch at least 1 NFL play.

    Mac Jones is supposed to be plug and play. Seems more like a Matt Flynn than a Tom Brady. Does anyone think Mac Jones can EVER go toe to toe with Mahomes? You trade up to 3 for Matt Flynn? Who, sat behind Jamarcus, like Jones sat behind Tua fwiw.

    I still think the Niners panicked. Saying they are now comfortable with the top 5 admits they should have let the process play out. Or they are lying but why lie? No one is jumping into the Jets slot. Why not swing for the fences and draft Lance?

  8. If it’s a “Gold Jacket Prospect(Hall of Fame”)” which is what a team should be drafting that high, then you can trade him.

    If they go with a system QB like Mac Jones they better keep Jimmy on the roster. It’s going to take Mac Jones at least two seasons to learn NFL defenses, and he doesn’t have the elite physical talent in his toolbox to compensate until he learns NFL defenses.

  9. To reiterate. Trey Lance just seems like the obvious pick. It makes too much sense, to me. OF course, I can throw the same darts as a GM but I’m looking for a bullseye (Lance) not to just hit the board (Jones).

    PS: Since Wilson is a super rich kid (we all love them so much), I bet Lynch growing up as a super rich kid would be the perfect GM for him. The Jets can’t win no matter what, so they might as well draft Jones and let Wilson have a chance…

  10. Garoppolo has no leverage. Look how little teams paid Winston, Mariota, and Trubisky. I don’t think Bortles is even on a team. Garoppolo will be a very good backup, but it will be hard to get a spot so late in the year.
    Alternatively he can stay with the 49ers at a reduced salary.
    Actually, he has significant leverage: a no-trade clause.

  11. Yes it is remote, but that has not stopped some people from trying to make it happen with the equivalence of rain dances. They are rooting for the 49ers to fail so they are rooting for the 49ers to trade or cut Jimmy G. before the 2021 season even begins.

  12. I just don’t understand all the trade talk surrounding Jimmy G, it just doesn’t make sense. The 49ers were one of the two teams to play in the Super Bowl for the 2019 season and much of that same roster is still intact and still in it’s prime. If not for all the injuries the they sustained last year there’s a very good chance they would have made another deep playoff run. The team is healthy again and the likelihood of the same team being decimated by injury in back-to-back seasons is so remote it’s not worth considering.

    The 49ers are widely being considered one of the better teams in the NFC this season so why would they want to drastically reduce their chances of making it back to another Super Bowl by inserting an unproven rookie when they don’t have to? Jimmy G offers them a much likelier chance of going further than any of the kid QB’s coming out this year. The plan that makes the most sense is to draft the kid QB of their choice at #3 and let him sit and learn this season behind Garoppolo. And if Garoppolo gets injured along the way then the kid gets inserted because he has to. Then, next season the team turns over the reigns to the kid and the franchise’s future can begin.

  13. The Niners will be starting Jimmy G this year. The new QB will learn behind him. It’s the ideal situation for a rookie QB. If Jimmy does very well, then he continues to play. If he gets injured or plays poorly, the new guy comes in.

    Plus, the Niners are set to win NOW, and that can only happen with Jimmy G. A rookie won’t be able to grasp the complicated playbook and get comfortable.

    The Niners are not trading Jinny G.

  14. If JG is traded it will be because they took Mac Jones. If they keep him, it will be because they took Trey Lance.

  15. Neither the 49ers nor Jimmy have any leverage in this situation. Teams know the 49ers will not carry his $21M for him to be a back-up. If Jimmy doesn’t play ball with another team he will get cut by the 49ers and be on an open market where teams have no money and shiny new prospects to play QB. Yee should be looking high and low for a fair deal and the 49ers should be looking for a fourth round pick, at best.

  16. Jimmy G isn’t going anywhere. Day one starter for the San Francisco Football 49ers.

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