Packers’ potential trade haul, cash/cap gains support calling Aaron Rodgers’ bluff

NFC Championship - Green Bay Packers v San Francisco 49ers
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As the Packers prepare for next week’s mandatory minicamp, they don’t know whether quarterback Aaron Rodgers will attend. If he does, it likely means he’ll attend training camp and play for the Packers in 2021. (There’s still a chance he’ll show up for mandatory minicamp and then hold out, like Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott did in 2019.) If Rodgers doesn’t report to mandatory minicamp, it sets the stage for the question of whether Rodgers will not show up for training camp and, potentially, sit out the season.

The Packers reportedly persist in their refusal to trade Rodgers, in part because they don’t believe he’ll never play for them again. If they call his bluff and he shows up for 2021, problem solved (at least until 2022). If they call his bluff and he’s not bluffing, he’ll skip the full season — and the Packers would gain up to $35 million in cash and cap space.

Either way, they can trade him in March 2022 (if they choose to do so). If they do, they’ll get players and/or picks in the 2022 draft.

That’s another reason to not trade him now. If they do, they’ll get picks at the earliest from the 2022 draft — same as they’d get if they trade him after the 2021 season. But, as mentioned here recently, the fact that it’s June could keep them from getting more now than they would get next year, when maximum teams may come to the table for trade talks.

Now, the partners would consist of the Broncos and maybe the Raiders. Later, plenty of other teams may decide to find a new quarterback, expanding the number of teams bidding for Rodgers’ services.

The only difference is that, by writing to trade Rodgers, the Packers wouldn’t get any players that would help them win games in 2021. Still, any picks would come from 2022 or later. Given that: (1) they’ll quite possibly get more picks if they wait; (2) Rodgers quite possibly will show up and play; and (3) they’ll realize up to $35 million in cash and cap savings if he doesn’t show up, this one is a no-brainer: The Packers should refuse to trade Rodgers until March 2022 at the earliest, and they should let him choose to play in 2021 or to give up a year of football and up to $35 million.

66 responses to “Packers’ potential trade haul, cash/cap gains support calling Aaron Rodgers’ bluff

  1. The fans in Green Bay have turned on Rodgers. He is showing his true colors. HE is not one of THEM.

  2. Rodgers does appear to be the genius he supposedly is when it comes to this.

  3. Signing on with the raiders is career suicide. Just ask, well, everybody…

  4. I feel the Packers plan is to a) call his bluff and b) if that doesn’t work, trade him to a team that loses its QB for the year for how ever much they can get, so he’ll go into a situation where he’s skipped training camp and doesn’t know the playbook at all and will hopefully get off to a slow start that makes them look like geniuses for trading him. I feel that suits them a lot better than trading him next year for 2022 picks and giving him a full off-season with his new team after having a year off from being blasted by pass rushers and with all the motivation that comes with being super petty and really pissed off.

  5. All this sounds well and good however the real question is…………IF they call his bluff, or what they perceive as a bluff, and he decides to retire will the cap savings translate to more wins this year? Can jordan Love take them to the playoffs, at a minimum? IF Love is a failure is anybody going to be out of a job a year from now? Will the draft choices you didn’t receive help build the team? And most of all how is this going to be perceived by the team and future free agents, both your own and others?

  6. When your decision is whether or not to call your disgruntled HOF QB’s “bluff”, it means you’ve failed as leaders of an organization.

    It should have been so easy to avoid all of this.

  7. If Rodgers doesn’t play this year, that means the Pack will more than likely have a top-5 pick in next year’s NFL Draft. And probably a top-10 pick the year after. Packer fans are totally spoiled with 30 years of Favre and Rodgers – back to back Hall of Fame quarterbacks playing for them. It might be time to experience how ‘the other half’ lives … with mediocre QB’s. The front office won’t have their disposal the real reason they went 13-3 the past two seasons.

  8. It’d be supremely ironic for him to be mad at the Packers for bad draft strategy and general cluelessness in the front office only to wind up with the Raiders who have patented those behaviors over the past 30 years.

  9. The Packers have been right all along.
    And all those were “guaranteed” Rodgers would be gone can start deciding how they want their crow served.

  10. If I were the Packers and I could get a deal done with the Raiders, I’d do it. It’d kind of stick it to Rogers putting him with that Denver D instantly puts them in contention. Raiders I don’t think are that far along. I would want Carr AND Waller, their 1st round pick this year, and their 2022 2nd rounder that turns into a first if the Raiders win their division or drops to a 3rd if the Packers win theirs.

  11. Some advice to Aaron Rodgers: it’s a mistake to think you’re the smartest person in the room. It’s also a mistake to think you can control the opinion of the fans. Fans are fickle and you haven’t won the big one for them in a long time.

  12. Don’t forget……don’t fall for the hype…neither Rodgers or the Packers have said one word. Not one. Rodgers will show up, laughing, and question anyone that thought he might not. He last and best chance to win a SuperBowl is staying right where he is. He knows this.

    But, he’s a quirky guy and recently got engaged, his priorities may have changed, and he doesn’t need the money. If he decides to take his Magical Mystery Tour on the road, I’ll support whoever is under center and the Green Bay Packers. It’s only a game. Life goes on.

  13. What if he gets an Alex Smith type injury? There are inherent risks in this strategy. Or another way to look at it, yeah more teams might be interested, but is the value of a 39 year old Rodgers more than the value of a 38 year old Rodgers? He’s coming off an MVP season. What if he stinks next year?

  14. The phrase “call his bluff” is stupid until the hand has been played. No one knows if he’s bluffing or not. I don’t even know if he knows.

  15. Rodgers has really taken a dive in esteem in my eyes with his diva antics. He is on a very talented team that almost went to the Super Bowl and the people he is blaming for his problems are the ones that gave him that talent. This kind of elitist tomfoolery is just killing my love of professional sports. The MMA fighters go out there for little pay and put their lives on the line to compete but Rodgers who barely in on the field for half a game and gets hit maybe a few times a game is hard done by. Call me old fashioned by does Rodger own any bootstraps to even pull up.

  16. In a weird twist of fate . . . what if Rodgers doesn’t show up, Love takes over, and if not this year, in a couple of years wins the Super Bowl.

  17. Hard to believe Green Bay would get a bigger haul by letting him get another year older.

  18. The only reason to trade him now is to be done with all this. I think he’ll show up and play the season, but be mopey all year and further diminish his value. Still, it only takes one team that wants to offer way more than they should. Probably the Raiders.

  19. The thing is if Rodgers takes a year off, the price to pay to have all the advantages you are talking about is to finish dead last in their division. Are they ready to scrap the 2021 season? Stay tuned…

  20. It’s interesting that when Ron Wolf was the Packers GM, he had Favre and still continued to draft QB’s to develop ( Mark Brunell, Ty Detmer, Matt Hasselback, etc.). If they had promise, and Favre was still playing well, Wolf traded them for draft picks or other players. Gutenkunst should be given some props for having the balls to draft a future replacement for Rodgers. From my seat, Rodgers got all the guaranteed money ($82M), and now is crying about the Packers having a plan to replace him. Hope he likes the sunsets in Malibu!!

  21. There is a reason why the Lions can’t attract free agents. Do the Packers really want to go down the road of what was done to Barry Sanders? Just trade him and be done with it.

  22. Let’s not forget that A.R. could always go the Patrick Ramsey route… That would turn the tables right back around.

  23. Rodgers has more value now – being a year younger and coming off an MVP season – than he will in 2022. Rodgers will be three months away from turning 39 when the season starts next year. Both the Broncos and the Raiders can offer a good young player along with draft picks if the Packers insist on getting something for their team in 2021.

  24. If Rodgers really wanted out so badly, he should have (and likely would have) made it known directly after the season. He chose to “break the news” on the first night of the draft instead. It’s pretty clear his motivation was creating maximum uproar as opposed to facilitating an actual move.

    That’s not to say he doesn’t want out. He very well may. It just says creating a big hullabaloo was his greater goal.

  25. I think everyone should just, R.E.L.A.X.
    By september, Rodgers will be throwing to Adams and Julio Jones and everything will be fine.

  26. Why is anyone surprised by this? The cap situation would have made trading Rodgers before June 1 impossible, and trading him afterwards would have so few teams bidding that there was no possible way Green Bay could get a worthwhile return for him.

    The options for this season were always that he either plays, or he sits.

  27. I don’t buy the assumption that the Packers will get better picks in March than they would now. If they announced he was on the block, a lot of teams would probably decide that Rodgers would be better to have for the next few years than the guy they have now. He’s more valuable coming off an MVP season than he will be next year coming off a regression to the mean season that was probably even worse than the mean because dysfunctional teams don’t tend to play very well.

  28. Rodgers value goes down the more this is drawn out.
    Besides it smells in green bay. Everybody understands no player want to be there especially after their coach said he is no interested in super bowls

  29. Green Bay already missed out on a “haul” if they were in fact offered the third pick. Never will they get another offer anywhere near that.

    How can you pass on that for a 38 year old QB with no rings in the last decade?

    Nobody did anything right here, including San Fran.

  30. (4)He can retire
    (5)He can retire and rejoin team during season negating most of the benefits of 1-3, still get paid most of salary and cause Packers to make roster moves to stay under cap
    (6)He can show up and cause conflict, tank, and decline to play through minor injuries forcing them into situation where they are better off cutting him.

  31. Frankly I have to admit, I’m a bit amused that people think a first ballot hall of fame, perennial pro-bowl, multi millionaire 37 year old quarterback cares one whit about what they think. This is a business, every player pays lip service to the fans, but let’s be honest. You’re just another faceless mass in a different jersey.

    Second, why doesn’t Florio offer another possibility. Rodgers doesn’t back down, retires, gets married, finds out that not being tackled and having his body mangled by absolute monsters isn’t so bad. Yea, the Packers get cap space, cool. It’s worked out real well for the Browns and Jags. I’m sure being in a small, cold, snowy place like Green Bay (Appleton/Ashwaubenon) will attract all the big names.

    Im a Lions fan, so I’d love to see him out of the division. However, Rodgers has been the bane of my team for years. I’ve loved to hate the man, and I’m absolutely stunned that I find myself in the minority on his side after the disrespect the Packers organization showed him.

  32. Wish Jordan Love was good enough to give the Packers a decent season. Hoping the Packers don’t redo Rodgers contract. Want him to retire and go away. Packer fans have had enough of his antics.

  33. IT’s totally clear that Rodgers isn’t happy. Why would you want a guy who doesn’t want to be there. It’s only going to get worse. If the Packers were smart they should listen to the best offer and move on. The fans will never forgive him, but he doesn’t seem to care about the fans. Let him go to Denver and fail.

  34. Passive aggressive 38 year olds who have not played in a year, tend to throw those around them under the bus, typically get a ‘haul’ in a trade. Lol

  35. Another possibility is he shows up to camp and gets injured. Then his trade value is nada and all that potential haul disappears.

  36. If the Packers are really going to refuse to trade him and aren’t just taking this stance to get the best deal possible, Rodgers needs to use Jimmy Butler’s playbook when he wanted out of Minnesota. Rodgers needs to report to the team, and then just be a complete jerk. When MVS drops a deep ball in the first training camp practice, Rodgers needs to complain loudly about them not ever drafting a first round receiver. He needs to openly criticize the offensive play calls every practice.

    When Jordan Love comes in to get reps and makes a mistake, Rodgers needs to laugh and say something like “You’re going to replace me with him?”

    It’s uncomfortable, and because Rodgers cares about his public image, he’s unlikely to do anything like that. But if he really wants out of Green Bay, he needs to make it extremely uncomfortable for everyone in that building to come to work. Eventually it will get old and the organization will have no choice but to move on.

    Butler was a total clown for a month before he got traded out of Minnesota, and now he’s seen as some great leader in Miami. If Rodgers goes to Denver or Las Vegas and wins, the media will jump right back on his bandwagon.

    Packers fans likely wouldn’t forget, and Rodgers does seem to care about keeping them on his side, but if it’s true that most Packers fans have already turned the page, Rodgers needs to do what he can to get traded. If the Packers want to call his bluff, cool. They get to deal with an even bigger jerk version of Rodgers until it becomes too much.

    Short of Rodgers doing that, though, he doesn’t seem poised to get his way.

  37. What will happen. He will play for Packers this year. They’ll go 11-6 and lose in round 1. They’ll trade him to a lousy team in the off season.

  38. nflxpert says:
    June 3, 2021 at 2:49 pm
    Hard to believe Green Bay would get a bigger haul by letting him get another year older.
    But if they trade him now, it’s quite likely whatever team he plays for does decent and the draft picks aren’t as good as if you trade him next March and know where teams will pick.

  39. Folks, if this goes on much longer, we need to talk about the very real possibility of a nationwide popcorn shortage.

  40. One big disadvantage for the Packers is that if Rodgers isn’t bluffing, their hopes to be contenders in 2021 go out the window. They’ll probably do OK with Love at QB, but OK doesn’t win division titles much less Super Bowls.

  41. The Packers are willing to trade Rodgers but they will not trade him to an NFC team. In the AFC of the sixteen teams eleven teams won’t be interested (Baltimore? Nope. Buffalo? Nope. Cincinnati? Nope. Cleveland? Nope. Jacksonville? Nope. Kansas City? Nope. Miami? Nope. New York Jets? Nope. Pittsburgh? Nope. Tennessee? Nope. Houston? Nope – besides draft picks the Packers likely will want a QB and they won’t accept Watson.)

    That leaves Denver, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Los Angeles Chargers, New England. Indianapolis has Wentz. Belichick won’t put up with Rodgers antics. Denver is the home of Rodgers fiancee and the logical choice.

  42. footballguy says:
    June 3, 2021 at 4:47 pm
    nflxpert says:
    June 3, 2021 at 2:49 pm
    Hard to believe Green Bay would get a bigger haul by letting him get another year older.
    But if they trade him now, it’s quite likely whatever team he plays for does decent and the draft picks aren’t as good as if you trade him next March and know where teams will pick.
    Mock drafts have 6 QBs going in the 1st round next draft. I don’t think they’ll get what they want by sitting and letting him get another year older.

  43. The only sure thing in this whole situation is that Vikings fans, like me, are LOVING IT!!!!

  44. They had a trade from the 49ers for the 3rd pick in the draft plus players and future picks for a 38 year old QB after they draft a young QB in the first round. Packers are complete fools

  45. The talk about waiting a year and getting more teams involved doesn’t work because Rodgers seems to be dictating geographically where he would go. The west coast.
    And do the Packers really want him in the NFC? The Saints never seemed like a real option.
    So basically next year maybe the Broncos and Raiders fit the description?

  46. Why can’t Rodgers just show up, make it clear he’s doing the bare minimum to get paid and force their hand that way – pay him to ride the bench or throw interceptions… or they can trade him

  47. This doesn’t make sense. True the draft picks are for 2022 and beyond, but Rodgers will be a year older and this season will be lost to the team bidding. The team trading for Rodgers will get him for this year and next. That’s more value. Plus the risk of injury if he comes back week 10 could render it all moot. Do the deal.

  48. Sounds like the ball is in Rodgers court. Sir out a year or play with the Pack. Does anyone know how much the Pack has paud him during his time in Cheese City ?
    Maybe 200 or 250 million or more. Don’t turn your back on Cheese City those people love you.

  49. I think it’ll be worth watching the Packers first home game with Rodgers playing. With his thin skin how will he respond to a packed Lambeau booing him?

  50. Rodgers does need the money to pay for his $28 milllion dollar home in Malibu.

  51. the Packers are looking at the cards they hold. They have a full house whereas Rodgers has a pair. Pack do not have to do anything this year. if he holds out, pack gets big money. trade him after season, they get picks, money just can’t lose.

  52. So you picked him 24th in 05. You were able to get 15 years of him on the roster, and one super bowl win. Trading him for one first rounder would be a win. You got full return, plus 15 years. The maximum haul is now. One less year, and NOT coming off a MVP year, sorry, not getting more. Not getting 4 1st rounders either. No franchise is giving up over 40 years of service from players to get one for 3 years.

  53. granadafans says:
    June 3, 2021 at 8:42 pm
    The Packers have bungled the PR of two hall of fame QBs

    Two HOF quarterbacks for the Packers have bungled their own PR.

  54. aaronbeachgmailcom says:
    June 3, 2021 at 5:38 pm
    Why can’t Rodgers just show up, make it clear he’s doing the bare minimum to get paid and force their hand that way – pay him to ride the bench or throw interceptions… or they can trade him
    I’m sure his teammates would be pleased with that. Perhaps his O-line might show Mr. Rodgers the hazards of “doing the bare minimum to get paid” by themselves doing the bare minimum to get paid.

  55. WHAT IF…Aaron Rodgers doesn’t show up for mandatory mini camp. The Packer could command help this year and still get a haul.
    Denver Gets Aaron Rodgers, Eric Stokes and 2022 2nd round pick
    Green Bay gets Bradley Chubb, Patrick Surtain, 2022 1st round Pick and 2023 1st round Pick and a lot of cap room in this year and in the future.
    The Packers get a defense that will allow Justin Love to just have to manage the game, not win them. The Packers defense get best secondary and outside rushers in football and Aaron get out of Green Bay and Packers get help this year and beyond.

  56. This is a lot of drama for a guy with one SB win in 15 years. The real winner here is Deshawn Watson as it is keeping the spotlight off of him

  57. The Packers hold all the cards so AR will be playing for the Packers this season. he isnt a dummy just a prima donna.

  58. Great logic, except for the part where if he plays in 2021 for the Pack you may have a very disgruntled QB mailing it in.

  59. The media is forgetting there is another option for Rodgers. He can still sit out until week 10-11 then show up and get credit for the full season towards free agency, not have to pay back any signing bonus money and still collect 10-11 million this season and it’s past the trade deadline and the Packers will be in the same situation entering 2022 with Rodgers able to do it again. If he doesn’t report before the deadline in 2022 the Packers get nothing and he’s a free agent the next season. Sure it would hurt his reputation but I think the media cares more about that stuff than he does. He’s petty enough to disown his own family and not care how it looks so I doubt he cares what we think. The Packers are messing this up every way possible.

  60. If I’m a team wanting Rodgers now (IE Denver, LV) I might give up two first round picks to get him now, but would only give up one first after the season is over.

  61. Graham Mooney says:
    June 3, 2021 at 5:32 pm
    They had a trade from the 49ers for the 3rd pick in the draft plus players and future picks for a 38 year old QB after they draft a young QB in the first round. Packers are complete fools

    They never had that offer. Shanahan called LaFleur and asked if it was worth it for Lynch to call Gute and discuss a trade and LaFleur said don’t bother. The GMs never spoke about a trade so no offer could have been made. I don’t know who started that whole thing about the #3 pick plus offer but it never happened.

  62. Two HOF QBs in a row will leave the Packers hating them. Maybe that’s why they were the laughing stock of the league for two decades until they lucked into Favre and hit the jackpot with Rodgers…hmmmm.

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