Bettor put $500,000 on Broncos +4, before Baker Mayfield was ruled out

Cleveland Browns v New York Jets
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The Browns are favorites against the Broncos in tonight’s Thursday Night Football game, but the line has moved toward Denver, particularly after Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield was ruled out with a shoulder injury. Which makes one big bet particularly eye-opening.

Caesars Sportsbook reported a $500,000 bet on the Broncos +4, according to David Purdum of ESPN.

Once the Browns announced that Case Keenum would start in place of Mayfield, the line dropped to Broncos +2.

We don’t know whether this bettor had some kind of inside information about Mayfield’s injury, just suspected that Mayfield’s injured shoulder would have an impact on the game, or simply thought Broncos +4 was a good bet regardless of Mayfield’s status. But this is another reminder of how valuable injury information can be, and why it’s so important that the NFL and its 32 teams are transparent about injuries.

Plenty of people are wagering plenty of money on the NFL, and knowing about an injury that moves the line before it moves the line would be incredibly valuable.

59 responses to “Bettor put $500,000 on Broncos +4, before Baker Mayfield was ruled out

  1. That is a terrible bet. I watched Bridgewater play several games now and he will be lucky to keep this game close even with all the injuries to the Browns.

  2. Plenty of people are wagering plenty of money on the NFL, and knowing about an injury that moves the line before it moves the line would be incredibly valuable.
    ===========================================================

    That’s why it’s called ‘gambling’.

  3. Love how pro sports have let the bookies into the game, especially football.

    Such a role model.

  4. This fella deserves to win the half million if he has to sit and watch this entire game

  5. After watching the Broncos performance against the Raiders last week I’d say Vegas money is safe.

  6. I disagree with your last 2 sentences, Mike. The betting lines shouldn’t have any influence on the injury report. Its purpose should be player safety and for the teams to comply with any and all league/local regulations that high impact sports demand. If fools want to part with their money, that’s on them. It’s called “gambling” for a reason.

  7. “But this is another reminder of how valuable injury information can be, and why it’s so important that the NFL and its 32 teams are transparent about injuries.”

    I find this opinion a bit disturbing. What should be important to NFL teams is putting their team in the best position to win. Not making sure bettors can make the most informed decision. Once everything tilts towards gambling, the NFL will have taken a giant step to becoming a farce.

  8. The Browns have lost 2 games in a row and have a short week with several injuries. It’s not unreasonable to bet against them. The fact that the line only moved 2 points tells us that either Vegas already strongly suspected that Mayfield would not start, or that his value is only 2 points more than Case Keenum’s.

  9. The NFL needs to focus on FOOTBALL and keeping pro football the #1 sport in America. Let the betters take their chances.

  10. I disagree. The league should determine how they operate and rules based off of gambling. I never agreed with forcing teams to report injuries. It’s a competitive disadvantage to have to highlight the health of your team. Even worse that the only real reason is for gambling.

  11. “Knowing about an injury that moves the line before it moves the line would be incredibly valuable.”…. Until it isn’t.

  12. It is certainly NOT how I would spend that much money, even with a pretty good chance of getting it back plus more. I certainly hope the bettor can afford to lose it, but I am hoping he comes out a winner because a Browns loss helps my favorite team in the division (Steelers).

  13. Sports betting is a fool’s errand. All those giant glitzy casinos did not get built by the winners.

  14. logicalone says:
    October 21, 2021 at 9:22 am
    That is a terrible bet. I watched Bridgewater play several games now and he will be lucky to keep this game close even with all the injuries to the Browns.

    ——————

    You say you’re logical, but logic says always follow the money.

  15. tinye67 says:
    October 21, 2021 at 9:30 am
    “But this is another reminder of how valuable injury information can be, and why it’s so important that the NFL and its 32 teams are transparent about injuries.”

    I find this opinion a bit disturbing. What should be important to NFL teams is putting their team in the best position to win. Not making sure bettors can make the most informed decision. Once everything tilts towards gambling, the NFL will have taken a giant step to becoming a farce.

    ————————

    Hate to break the news to you, but the NFL has been embedded with gambling for 50 years. That giant step was taken a long time ago. Gambling has become more acceptable from a social and surface level now. That’s the only difference.

  16. “Sports betting is a fool’s errand. All those giant glitzy casinos did not get built by the winners.”

    Um, Yes, Yes they did!

  17. He’s probably sweating that bet now that Keemun is the starter. Mayfield’s whole world will crumble if Keenum has a good game tonight.

  18. No Chubb. No Hunt. No Baker. If Denver can’t win this game then Fangio needs to be fired, let alone if they can’t at least lose by 3.

  19. For those who want to laugh if the guy loses the bet, I would remind them that he is probably the type who could keep this amount in his glove-box w/o any reservation.

  20. Really hate how the NFL has opened up to gambling. I’m all for people doing what they want with their money. Lose it all if it makes you happy, I just hate the constant encouragement from every media angle and commercial telling me to bet on the game.

  21. The Browns preseason hype train will come off the rails tonight after they lose to the Broncos.

  22. I’m happy to see the negative social stigma of gambling finally going away for good. Gambling, just like alcohol, is harmless in moderation and adds a fun X-Factor to the games. It gives me a fun reason to watch games I normally wouldn’t care about. Am I betting more than I can afford to lose? No. That’s called being a responsible adult. But man it is so fun to watch your favorite team win and also pull a grand from it as well!!!!!

  23. Could just be a die hard Broncos fan making a “yolo” bet. A lot of high stakes gamblers are superstitious. Maybe he is putting faith in his dream he had where his WW1 vet great grandpa told him to do it. People have won tens of thousands of dollars at the race track simply by going off the horse’s name.

  24. This is a non story, as far as any possibility bettor knew Baker wouldn’t play. Bettor, like all of us, knew in no way Baker was going to play, especially, on a Thursday game, or Chubb. And it’s actually looking very possible Baker could be our for year. Regardless, bettor knew even if Baker played, he would be very ineffective. All that being said, I see Cleveland pitching a shutout, dude losing 500K.

  25. Funniest thing learning is that losing your starting QB is only worth a 2 point swing on the spread. Sounds like a typical Cleveland thing…

  26. Not a fan of that bet based on Baker because the Browns are going to run the ball just like they do and Fangio’s defense has struggled with the run game at times. Also, Case Keenum is not a complete scrub and given the offense they run and his familiarity with it, I don’t see a huge drop off to the point of putting half a million on it.

    Maybe it is something else

  27. ILL_logicalone says:
    October 21, 2021 at 9:22 am

    I’ve watched Bridgewater play his entire career, and I’d say you apparently don’t know football.

    The Broncos problem is NOT TB

  28. Moving from 4 to 2 is a huge move since it crosses 3
    Also Case Keenum is a decent backup and Denver has fallen apart the last few weeks. If the defense steps up I think Cleveland can win

  29. Keenum will probably struggle, NOT because of any lack of QB skills (Dude is STILL , I think the NCAA passing leader) but because the following:
    1) No Nick Chubb
    2) No Kareem Hunt
    3) No Star Wide-out
    4) Missing two Offensive Linemen

    But people will ignore this and then blather on about how bad Keenum is if they lose.

  30. So what? I made a bet on the Broncos too before they announced Mayfield was out. Every Tuesday my sportsbook offers a 20% odds boost to any NFL or College game that week. I put $5 on Denver to win and under 42, Mayfield or no Mayfield.(+390 odds) As a Steelers fan I know the Browns just aren’t that good. The Browns are the Browns. I also knew Mayfield probably wouldn’t be playing last week when it was reported he’d be asking for a second opinion on his shoulder injury. You don’t ask for a second opinion unless you get bad news. Here’s hoping on a 24-17 Denver win.

  31. Broncos always beat the Browns. My first NFL game was Broncos vs Browns and the Broncos with Floyd Little killed them….the fumble, the drive, the $500,000 shoulder, doesn’t matter, same result coming right up…

  32. This fella deserves to win the half million if he has to sit and watch this entire game

    That is classic!! Thanks for laugh.

  33. A Denver team that got smoked by Baltimore, owned by the Raiders and taken to school by the Steelers, what on earth is he THINKING?! The Broncos are horrible, but at least Cleveland lost y close margins to the Chiefs & Chargers

  34. Well…

    It’s not like you couldn’t make an educated guess as to if he was going to play or not…

    There were already stories that he was looking for second opinions in order to avoid season ending surgery… and the game was on. Thursday…

    Did he go out on a limb ??

    Sure… the guy plunking down the 500k surely did….

    That being said…it wasn’t a short and shaky limb.

  35. This isn’t a good example. Baker’s injury shifted the line slightly. As someone who tends to be up most weeks against the house, I would already have taken into account that the Browns are a running team and they have lots of key injuries. This additional info about Mayfield is less important.

  36. theimmaculatedeception says:
    October 21, 2021 at 9:26 am
    This fella deserves to win the half million if he has to sit and watch this entire game

    –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

    You’re obviously not a Vikings fan. The battle of Bridgewater vs. Keenum is must see TV in the lost loves department!

  37. No Chubb, no Hunt, plus a very banged up Baker and Odell on a short week. Taking the Broncos getting any points sounds like easy money to me. Browns D is going to need to play out of its mind to get the W.

  38. Woolly Man Mouth says:
    October 21, 2021 at 9:25 am
    Love how pro sports have let the bookies into the game, especially football.

    Such a role model.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    It became pretty obvious when they allowed the Raiders to move to Las Vegas. For years, the NFL said they were against it. Best way to beat that horse is NOT TO GAMBLE!

  39. Love how some of you act like bookies weren’t in the game already, and have been since the league existed. It was SUCH a pure, untouched game until they put the Raiders in Vegas… right. Hilarious.

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