After falling to 0-9-1 on Sunday, the Lions are in great shape in one respect: They’re now the overwhelming favorites to earn the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft.
Thanks to the Lions’ loss and the Texans’ win, Detroit remains winless while every other team in the NFL has won at least twice. Even if the Lions win one of their remaining seven games, a 1-15-1 record would clinch the first overall pick.
There’s currently a three-way tie for the second overall pick, with the Jets, Jaguars and Texans all at 2-8. The Jets project to have the easiest schedule of those three teams, so they would win the tiebreaker and get the second overall pick, while the Jaguars would pick third and the Texans fourth. (Strength of schedule may change over the final seven games of the season.)
An intriguing situation exists with the fifth and sixth picks, as the 3-7 Seahawks and Bears are currently tied — and both of those teams have traded away their 2022 first-round picks. The Seahawks would win the strength of schedule tiebreaker and the fifth overall pick would go to the Jets for Jamal Adams, while the sixth overall pick would go from the Bears to the Giants for Justin Fields.
The Giants, at 3-6 heading into Monday Night Football, would currently get the seventh overall pick.
The eighth pick would currently reside with 4-7 Miami, which has already traded its pick to Philadelphia to move up in the 2021 draft for Jaylen Waddle.
The 4-6 Falcons would pick ninth thanks to the tiebreaker over 4-6 Washington, which would pick 10th. The 5-6 Eagles would pick 11th and 5-6 Carolina 12th. The 5-5 Broncos would pick 13th, 5-5 49ers would have the 14th pick, which has been traded to Miami, and the 5-5 Raiders would pick 15th.
The 6-5 Colts, who traded their pick for Carson Wentz, would have the 16th pick, while the 6-5 Browns would pick 17th and the 5-4-1 Steelers would pick 18th.
The rest of the draft order would be determined by playoff results.
In summary: The Lions have to feel good about their chances of having the first overall pick, the Jets would have two of the Top 5, the Giants would have two of the Top 7, and the Eagles would have three of the Top 16.