Tom Brady holds firm as MVP favorite

Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Atlanta Falcons
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Tom Brady is accomplishing many things at the age of 44. One of those accomplishments may be to win the MVP award.

PointsBet has the Buccaneers quarterback at +175 to win the prize for the fourth time in his career.

There’s a sizable gap between Brady and the next guy on the list, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He’s at +600. Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray comes in at +750, and Bills quarterback Josh Allen has fallen to +1000 after being the early-season favorite.

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott sits at +1200, with Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes at +1400. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has regressed to +1600 along with Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, the non-quarterback with the best odds.

Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt presents the best value by far, at +25000. On track for 24.0 sacks, if Watt breaks that single-season record of 22.5 and if Pittsburgh makes it to the playoffs, he could get some votes. PFT’s Charean Williams, who holds one of the 50 Associated Press votes, said on Tuesday’s #PFTPM that her two current finalists are Murray and Watt.

As a practical matter, the true favorites will be the quarterbacks of the No. 1 seeds in each conference. But a historic performance by a non-quarterback can help someone like Watt get there, like it did with running back Adrian Peterson in 2012.

Thus, the ongoing scrum or the No. 1 seed in each conference will go a long way toward determining the MVP. And if Watt can keep racking up sacks, he could throw a wrench into the final decision.

62 responses to “Tom Brady holds firm as MVP favorite

  1. Notice that Rogers isn’t going to win the award? Packer trolls are triggered and eating crow today!

  2. I hope not. I rather he wins another SB MVP than NFL MVP. The MVP curse is real. The last MVP who won the SB was Kurt Warner in 1999. And everytime Aaron Rodgers won the MVP, Brady went to the Super Bowl.

  3. So far, Brady has it and only Rodgers can catch him. But personally, I like Watt. All of these QBs have had at least 2 real stinkers this year. Why reward any of them? But when Brady wins, we all know that equates to no Superbowl win for the NFL MVP. Nice.

  4. Notice that Rogers isn’t going to win the award? Packer trolls are triggered and eating crow today!

    —————————————

    And where is your quarterback on the list?? Thought so!!

  5. Rodgers won’t be picked solely due to COVID.
    Murray missed too much time (4 games).
    Parsons has almost as many sacks as Watt and rushes the passer 1/2 the times.

    Brady vs Taylor.
    The QB always wins, but per usual, shouldn’t. The Bucs are littered with talent. While he’s doing well for his age there are many QBs that could have plugged in and had just as good of a season. Meanwhile, Taylor will end up with at least 1800 yards and 25-27TDs rushing and another 500 yards and 3-5 TD for a total of 2300 all purpose yards and 28-32 TD.

    I’d give Taylor the vote.

  6. Here’s hoping that defenses through the rest of the season find him in the pocket and give him what he deserves, while his numbers tank.

  7. It should go to Derrick Henry based on how bad the Titans have looked since he got hurt. He’s third in rushing despite being out for the last month. I thought RBs were fungible, but Henry may disprove that.

  8. A 44-year old QB is leading all these young QB stars in passing yards and touchdowns. Amazing. That’s not supposed to be happening.

    And which really, really, really stupid team thought Tom Brady was too old and washed up to compete? The 49ers?

  9. Nothing personal, but I am so sick and tired of hearing about Brady. Can’t he just retire? I mean it’s like seeing the Patriots all the time in the Super Bowl, it blows! My favorite teams are any team who beats the Patriots or the Buccaneers.

  10. Derek Jeter was given multiple gold gloves but if you go back and look at his stats he was one of the the worst shortstops in the league

  11. A lot of buzz about possible Bucs/Patriots SB with MVP QB and MVP coach.

    If so, then you have to throw Arians into the mix and he won’t outcoach BB in a SB. I don’t think Arians and Brady will outcoach BB.

    But I’m getting way ahead of myself.

  12. Mac Jones. He outplayed Brady and continues to week to week, save for last night.

    MVP doesn’t mean stat accumulation.

  13. PhD says:
    “If Kyler Murray takes his team to the Super Bowl, he deserves it over Brady.”

    MVP award is a regular season award. I don’t think your PhD is well earned.

  14. covid19 says:
    Nothing personal, but I am so sick and tired of hearing about Brady. Can’t he just retire? I mean it’s like seeing the Patriots all the time in the Super Bowl, it blows! My favorite teams are any team who beats the Patriots or the Buccaneers.
    —-

    Dude…if the Super Bowl is the Bucs vs Patriots, you are going to have a really bad day!

  15. golforepar says:
    December 7, 2021 at 7:33 pm
    Rodgers has thrown less INTs in the past 2 years than Brady this year.
    ———-

    Too bad it’s not the 2019-2021 MVP award…and Brady would still probably win that.

  16. Outplayed by Mac. Sounds like MVP to me!

    It is Rodgers, but his hidden ball trick regarding vaccination/immunization fooled the press – so that will be hard to overcome.

  17. Brady is worthy of the award, but I don’t see a dominating performance from any quarterback in the league right now. If he does win his fourth MVP, it might just be the season the winner goes out with a ring as well. The AFC is awful.

  18. ‘If the Patriots are the #1 seed, it won’t be Mac Jones.’

    Are you sure? His completion percentage against that awesome Bills defense was 67% – that’s nothing to sneeze at.

  19. It’s T J Watt and I am a Ravens fan. Stop giving it to a QB just because he is a QB. It should be to the player who is most valuable to his team and is most impressive this season

  20. Give it to Watt, defense should get a bone here and there, and all I care about is another ring

  21. Kyler Murray has a 73% best in the league completion rate (Brady 68%), an 8.9 yards per attempt (Brady 7.4), 3 less INT’s, and a better passer rating of 112.2 to Brady’s 104. His team has a better record…the best record in the NFL. Brady is leading a team that went to the Super Bowl last year, while Kyler is leading a team that was 8-8 last year and worst in the league 3 years ago. And we haven’t even talked about Kyler running yet…

    Kyler Murray MVP for those who pay attention to the entire NFL. Not even close.

  22. “golforepar says:
    December 7, 2021 at 8:37 pm
    Tampa can win without Brady but yea the guy with the most rings deserves it? smh”

    Tampa had ONE winning record in the prior decade without Brady.

  23. Brady couldn’t care less about MVPs….give them to Rodgers and he’ll settle for the Lombardi.

  24. Insomniac says:
    December 7, 2021 at 6:53 pm
    If the Patriots are the #1 seed, it won’t be Mac Jones.

    ———————
    Mac Jones or any Patriot should not even be in this conversation. They are doing that whole team effort thing rather than just having one individual carrying a lot. Its definitely winning on the team level, but on the individual level you dont get single guys standing out as much.

  25. Personally this is a popularity contest and what’s best for the league… Brady is the face of the NFL and that’s why he’ll probably get it. Roger likes it that way. My list is Murray, Parsons, Watt. Players that have played consistently better then Brady.

  26. As a practical matter, the true favorites will be the quarterbacks of the No. 1 seeds in each conference. So mac jones and Kyler Murray should be the front runners by that logic florio.

  27. Rodgers deserves it and it’s not even close. We all saw what the Packers looked like without him against KC.

  28. Nothing but a popularity contest as stated, gifted by a bunch of has beens. I’d rather have a quarterback that stood up for what he believed in instead of a sheep.

  29. It’s not a popularity contest.

    It usually goes to a qb because they (by far) have the most impact, positive or negative, on the outcome of NFL games. It’s the most important position in all the major sports.

    Derrick Henry is the only guy that we can throw in the conversation as we’ve seen what happened to the Titans without him because Tannehill is average.

    Brady is leading the league in TDs and yards. At age 44. Not hard to see what he’s meant to the Bucs as they chase their 2nd SB in a row.

  30. Absolutely no surprise here. Tom Brady is the best football player and athlete of all time. Is he the best person of all-time? That’s for you to decide, but Mark Wahlberg, Ben Afleck, and Matt Damon have spoken on the matter – and I trust them. I’m not certain what Nicolas Cage thinks, because that influences me greatly as well. At any rate, we need to start thinking about retiring #12 from football altogether. Brady rules all.

  31. touchback6 says:
    December 7, 2021 at 7:43 pm
    Mac Jones. He outplayed Brady and continues to week to week, save for last night.

    MVP doesn’t mean stat accumulation.

    ———

    I guess “outplayed” doesn’t actually mean “won the game” either…

  32. Rohanz2000 says:
    December 7, 2021 at 10:51 pm
    It’s T J Watt and I am a Ravens fan. Stop giving it to a QB just because he is a QB. It should be to the player who is most valuable to his team and is most impressive this seaso

    —-
    It never was about who is most valuable to his team.

    Watt won’t win it. His team might not even make the playoffs.

  33. covid19 says:
    Nothing personal, but I am so sick and tired of hearing about Brady. Can’t he just retire? I mean it’s like seeing the Patriots all the time in the Super Bowl, it blows! My favorite teams are any team who beats the Patriots or the Buccaneers.
    —-

    Dude…if the Super Bowl is the Bucs vs Patriots, you are going to have a really bad day!

    ——————————

    I just wouldn’t watch. There is always that choice. Honestly there is more to life than the Super Bowl.

  34. Brady couldn’t care less about MVPs….give them to Rodgers and he’ll settle for the Lombardi.
    —–
    It’s cute to see people talk about Brady as if they know him. He himself has stated that nothing he says publicly is true, so I’d stay away from those kinds of declarative statements…cause I promise he cares about MVP.

  35. Tampa can win without Brady
    ==========

    Last year, maybe.

    That secondary is going to get torched in January.

  36. Derrick Henry is the only guy that we can throw in the conversation as we’ve seen what happened to the Titans without him because Tannehill is average.
    ==========

    I don’t see how Taylor is any less valuable than Henry is/was.

    We all know what the Colts would be if their opponents could key on Wentz.

  37. Dude…if the Super Bowl is the Bucs vs Patriots, you are going to have a really bad day!
    ==========

    The thought is absolutely nauseating.

    If that actually happens, its clear there are no football gods.

  38. Tampa can win without Brady

    They would not be the same team with Blaine Gabbert as the starting QB.

  39. Who cares about the MVP when there is record breaking 14th World Championship right there for the taking.

  40. It’s all setting up for Brady to win again.

    Also, instead of the MVP being the door prize as it’s been for the last 20 years–Brady will be the first SB winning QB to win League MVP since Kurt Warner in 1999

  41. Understand how impressive Murray is. Kyler ranks number one in both completion percentage and YPA . Meaning he’s number one in completion percentage and YPA despite throwing down the field not dinking and dunking teams to death. Murray is right up there next to Brady and Murray’s team is number in the NFL w/ the best record and is 7-0 on the road winning all of their road games by 10+ points, first team since the SB winning 1984 49ers to do so. Murray is a monster, he and Brady will be battling for the award threw WK18. Murray has developed into an elite top 3 QB and is only getting better n better.

  42. flash1224 says:
    December 8, 2021 at 10:05 am
    Tampa can win without Brady

    They would not be the same team with Blaine Gabbert as the starting QB.
    —————————————————————————————————————

    Exactly. Tampa can’t win without Brady, a defense like Arizonas would eat Gabbert alive. Blaine would throw 3-5 INTs against that defense. Gabbert isn’t good at all, I don’t understand BAs love affair with him..

  43. Some say Rodgers…lol…he is the most hated diva liar in the NFL the less awards he wins the
    more the NFL wins.

  44. covid19 says:
    December 8, 2021 at 9:34 am
    covid19 says:
    Nothing personal, but I am so sick and tired of hearing about Brady. Can’t he just retire? I mean it’s like seeing the Patriots all the time in the Super Bowl, it blows! My favorite teams are any team who beats the Patriots or the Buccaneers.
    —-

    Dude…if the Super Bowl is the Bucs vs Patriots, you are going to have a really bad day!

    ——————————

    I just wouldn’t watch. There is always that choice. Honestly there is more to life than the Super Bowl.

    ——————————

    Really? Like what?

  45. Im a Pats fan which I guess makes me the opposite of a Colts fan. And Im also a Brady fan. And even with all that bias hanging on me I still think Taylor deserves it.

  46. Everyone needs to be reminded that the MVP award is chosen by a select group of sports writers, who also determine (but in a separate format) – who gets into the Hall of Fame. It may not be fair, but it’s the way it is. Fans and players have NO say in the award. No matter who you think is deserving, sports journalists and their biases – which include selecting stats or wins or whether a non-QB should win or shouldn’t – are all factors.

    One factor that isn’t supposed to be included – but always is – is likeability. Writers are human and as a general rule, anyone who actively rails against the media as part of their schtick or who is considered a showboat, usually doesn’t win.

    The last non-QB to win it is already in the HOF, i.e., LaDainian Tomlinson of the then San Diego Chargers, who rushed for 1,815 yards and scored 31 TDs in 2006 (still an NFL record for a RB) – 28 on the ground, 3 from the air. That year he also threw two TDs, both option passes to future HOF Antonio Gates. Since that year, only QBs have won the overall MVP award – and it will likely trend that way indefinitely now that there are separate awards for offensive and defensive players of the year.

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