Tom Brady strengthens his grip on MVP odds

Buffalo Bills v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Tom Brady continues to become a bigger and bigger favorite to win the NFL’s MVP. At the age of 44.

Four years after Brady won the award for the third time at the age of 40, he’s now an overwhelming favorite to win it for the fourth time.

From +175 a week ago (bet $100 to win $175) via PointsBet to -170 now (bet $170 to win $100), Brady has a huge margin over Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (+550) and Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (+900). Creeping up on the outside are Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+1200) and Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (+1500).

Still, for Brady to win it, the Bucs may have to finish with the No. 1 seed in the NFC. If they don’t — if the Cardinals or the Packers do — their quarterbacks get a bump.

But if it’s close, Brady’s age and accomplishments surely will give him a boost. On Sunday, he became the all-time completions leader, to go along with the all-time yardage record and all-time passing touchdowns record.

He also has 4,134 passing yards, his 13th season over 4,000 yards. He’s now only one behind Peyton Manning, who holds the record with 14.

Brady, who leads the NFL in passing yards, also is on pace for his second 5,000-yard season. At his current rate of 318 per game, he’ll finish with 5,406. That would supplant himself as the third most in league history.

36 responses to “Tom Brady strengthens his grip on MVP odds

  1. The Buccaneers’ last four opponents are the Panthers (twice), the Saints and the Jets. So, he should enhance his statistical resume considerably. His fourth MVP is close to a lock.

  2. Brady is amazing. That sad season he lost with the blown out knee, and his rehab routine, really set him up for longevity. I can’t imagine we will see another last this long in our lifetimes.

  3. Apparently the league wants him to win it. The non PI call on the 3rd down play to Diggs saved the game for TB. It was an obvious call, but they swallowed the whistle.

    What Brady is doing is remarkable at any age. That being said, all 32 teams would take Rodgers over Brady right now. I used to think Mahomes would be # 1 on that “for 1 season” list, but it might be Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes in that order for now. Kyler Murray, Josh Allen & Herbert from the Chargers next 3. Jackson is too specialized for many teams. That’s the real MVP list, which is pretty close to how it will play out.

  4. Has a good shot at the single season completions record too.

    Needs 94 over his last 3 games to get it done. That’s an average of 31.5 completions per game. Had 31 yesterday and 38 the week before so yep he can get there.

    All at 44. Amazing

  5. Doesn’t make any sense my vote is for the BEST PLAYER Jonathan Taylor not the best QB’s but 2nd yes would be Brady 3rd place TJ Watt .

  6. The fact they added a game to the season means when the GOAT is done, he’ll be the GOAT for a long, long, long time. No run first QB will ever break his records. True pocket passers are getting harder to come by every year that goes by. Enjoy the GOAT while he’s still slingin’.

  7. The race will be between Brady, Mahomes, and Rodgers. Any one of those three could take it. Brady will put up crazy numbers in the last 4 games as they gear up for the playoffs as the scheduled teams are weak.

  8. lunscr says:
    December 13, 2021 at 10:14 am
    This isn’t the Heisman. Since when do career accomplishments matter for a season MVP award
    ——
    Well lucky for Tom he is the NFL leader in both passing yards and TDS. And on top of that they are contenders for the 1st seed in the NFC so these just might be the reasons he’s the frontrunner for MVP.

  9. “all 32 teams would take Rodgers over Brady right now”
    —–

    Yeah, RIGHT…. if you wanted a nice-looking scrambling play executed in a meaningless game.

    But if it is win or go home game/situation, Rodgers sends you home. Brady takes you to the next round.

  10. That being said, all 32 teams would take Rodgers over Brady right now. I used to think Mahomes would be # 1 on that “for 1 season” list, but it might be Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes in that order for now. Kyler Murray, Josh Allen & Herbert from the Chargers next 3. Jackson is too specialized for many teams. That’s the real MVP list, which is pretty close to how it will play out.
    ==========

    Burrow and Herbert are going to be A-listers in pretty short order.

    Burrow is going to figure out how to win with that talented group he has. And there will be no going back. I won’t be the least bit surprised if he starts doing Brady things.

    Allen puts himself in harms way too often. If he takes a couple viscous shots, it could take away one of his greatest strengths.

    I’m just not buying Murray. Probably moreso not buying that Cardinals will sustain this level of success. I think he’ll fall more in the Russell Wilson category. More of a B+ than an A-

    I hope Lawrence makes this list. But my goodness, what a epic nightmare he is living now.

  11. Yeah, let’s give the MVP Award to a QB who lied about his vaccination status thereby endangering some of those around him.

  12. Has a good shot at the single season completions record too.

    Needs 94 over his last 3 games to get it done. That’s an average of 31.5 completions per game. Had 31 yesterday and 38 the week before so yep he can get there.

    All at 44. Amazing
    —-
    I mean 94 over four games not 3. So That’s 24.5 completions per game not 31.5.

    That’s what you call almost a lock. He’ll get there for sure if he plays out the string.

  13. One other record that has come on the radar for Brady: the single season passing yards record.

    5477 right now.
    After yesterday Brady is on pace for about 5400. Hmm….

  14. Was already mentioned but if you are a Bucs or Brady fan, you don’t want him winning the MVP
    if you want him to win the Super Bowl…The Curse is Real !

    But I guess if anybody can break it, it would be him right ?

  15. In addition to his league lead in both yards and touchdown passes, Brady also leads the NFL in perhaps the most important category, QBR, at 67.6. Herbert, Stafford, Murray and Rodgers are two through five.

  16. wiremans12 says:
    December 13, 2021 at 10:18 am
    Doesn’t make any sense my vote is for the BEST PLAYER Jonathan Taylor not the best QB’s but 2nd yes would be Brady 3rd place TJ Watt .

    Belichick will do Brady a favor and shut JT down on Saturday!

  17. Brady is having a better stat year for sure but Rodgers is the real MVP. Packers would not win a game without Rodgers. Bucs have a better all around team and are four deep in WR. But again, Brady always has a better team around him than other QBs.

  18. A legend goes to a historically bad team, draws talented players to join also, in the 1st year he takes them to WIN the Super Bowl over one of the leagues ‘darling’ teams and in his 2nd year has the team 10-3 already division Champs and in position to possibly end the season with a top seed….

    YEAH, I don’t see anyone else with that loaded of a resume for such an honor!

  19. Brady is truly amazing at his age, but the refs tilt the entire field in his favor all game and all season. Everyone knows that would have been an instant PI or defensive holding call if it was Brady throwing the ball. Brady gets call after call after call– and he still complains over ordinary non-calls.

  20. does any rational person believe for a nano second that Tom Brady could play at an MVP level behind Green Bay’s offensive line?

  21. I would rather look at the individual throws. Brady to Evans, two inches above the Bill safety’s hands, is an MVP throw. Rodgers had his share of MVP throws last night. Let’s get beyond the stats.
    BTW, the PI no-call on the Digg’s third down throw was a good call – they were both hand fighting. The refs missed the jersey tug on Diggs earlier in the game. The DPI on the underthrown ball was consistent with other calls (there was a similar call against the Bucs in their game with Atlanta), although I believe their should be guidance not to call DPI if the ball is (intentionally??) underthrown.

  22. Rodgers aint the MVP thats for sure but Hebert is having a very good year and should be in the running along with Murry.

  23. What makes Brady so special is his leadership. The raw talent around him has evolved since Brady arrived as he demands Belichik-like discipline from everybody.

    He also has a deep well of motivation when it is needed most. When the Bucs were on their heels as the Bills suddenly took control of the game, Brady ran up and down the benches yelling ‘LETS GO!!!” like some kind of General ordering troops in combat. They rallied and won.

    Rodgers and Mahomes may be more talented. But Brady is the only QB that would still win even if the entire coaching staff suddenly disappeared.

  24. patsfan4lifedynasty says:
    December 13, 2021 at 12:11 pm
    Diva Brady is padding his stats for the MVP even when it hurts his team.

    ———

    Unlike your Jets, his team won

  25. It’s pretty obvious that Rodgers is the MVP but there are too many Brady slappies out there to admit it. The guy is playing with a stacked roster. Most QB’s in the NFL right now could win with that team.

  26. If you only count the last 4 games from Rodgers, he would be MVP, but if you take the 13 games so far in totality, no way Rodgers is MVP for this season over Brady. Last season AR was a runaway MVP for the regular season, and deservingly so.

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