PFT’s NFL Week 16 2021 picks

NFL: OCT 24 Bengals at Ravens
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The one-game difference remains, with three weeks to go.

Last week, MDS and I split on our disagreements, finishing the weekend (and weekdays) 10-6 each. He continues to lead, 141-82-1 to 140-83-1.

This week, we disagree on three. For all picks, scroll away.

49ers (-3.5) at Titans

MDS’s take: The 49ers are playing their best football recently, and they’ll remain very much in the NFC playoff race with a win at an injury-plagued Tennessee team.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 24, Titans 23.

Florio’s take: If the Titans can iron out some of their mistakes, they can get back to winning. They need to.

Florio’s pick: Titans 24, 49ers 23.

Browns (+7) at Packers

MDS’s take: The COVID-ravaged Browns should be healthier than they were against the Raiders. But even at 100 percent, I wouldn’t pick them to win in Green Bay.

MDS’s pick: Packers 28, Browns 17.

Florio’s take: The 2021 Browns seem ready to fold the tents on a season bound for failure.

Florio’s pick: Packers 31, Browns 20.

Colts (+1) at Cardinals

MDS’s take: The Cardinals laid the biggest egg of the season with their loss in Detroit, but they’ll bounce back with a big win on Christmas night.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 30, Colts 20.

Florio’s take: The Cardinals have fallen, and they can’t get up. The Colts have gotten up, and they’re not about to go down.

Florio’s pick: Colts 24, Cardinals 20.

Buccaneers (-11) at Panthers

MDS’s take: Even as banged-up as they are, I can’t imagine the Buccaneers losing to this Panthers team.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 10.

Florio’s take: Cam Newton is 2-0 lifetime as a starter vs. Tom Brady. That finally changes, with a little help from Sam Darnold.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 14.

Giants (+10) at Eagles

MDS’s take: The Eagles are coming on strong down the stretch and not out of the playoff hunt. They’ll stomp a Giants team that has made absolutely no progress during the Dave Gettleman era.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 31, Giants 12.

Florio’s take: The Giants have embarked on an involuntary tank. The Eagles remain very much alive for the playoffs.

Florio’s pick: Eagles 27, Giants 20.

Chargers (-8.5) at Texans

MDS’s take: Texans quarterback Davis Mills is actually playing reasonably well, but not well enough to beat Justin Herbert and the Chargers.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 24, Texans 14.

Florio’s take: The Texans are the gang that shouldn’t tank straight. The Chargers will help get them get pointed in the right direction.

Florio’s pick: Chargers 31, Texans 20.

Lions (+6) at Falcons

MDS’s take: I’m very tempted to pick the upset here, as I think the Lions are better than their record and the Falcons are worse than theirs. But I can’t quite pull the trigger and I’ll say the Falcons win on a last-second field goal.

MDS’s pick: Falcons 23, Lions 21.

Florio’s take: The Falcons are good enough to win when they should, and Detroit’s recent success will keep the Falcons from getting complacent.

Florio’s pick: Falcons 27, Lions 17.

Ravens (+2.5) at Bengals

MDS’s take: The AFC North is wide open and the winner of this one is the clear favorite. I’ll say the Bengals escape in a close one.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 28, Ravens 27.

Florio’s take: In some games, desperation makes all the difference. This is one of those games. Whether it’s Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley, the Ravens find a way to get it done.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 24, Bengals 21.

Rams (-3) at Vikings

MDS’s take: The Vikings’ secondary shut down the Bears’ passing game on Monday night. They won’t have any such luck against the Rams’ passing game.

MDS’s pick: Rams 31, Vikings 20.

Florio’s take: Minnesota won’t have to worry about blowing a late lead in this one.

Florio’s pick: Rams 30, Vikings 23.

Jaguars (+2.5) at Jets

MDS’s take: The Jaguars are in a march toward their second consecutive first overall draft pick.

MDS’s pick: Jets 17, Jaguars 13.

Florio’s take: If a game falls in the woods, does it make a sound?

Florio’s pick: Jets 20, Jaguars 14.

Bills (+2.5) at Patriots

MDS’s take: The Patriots can lock up the AFC East with a win, and I think they’re going to do it with a defense that clamps down on Josh Allen.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 20, Bills 14.

Florio’s take: The Patriots lacked energy against the Colts. They won’t lack energy against the Bills.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 24, Bills 17.

Bears (+6.5) at Seahawks

MDS’s take: Neither of these teams is going to the playoffs, but Pete Carroll has the Seahawks playing with a little more fight than Matt Nagy’s Bears.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 27, Bears 20.

Florio’s take: The twelves would be better off staying home for the second day of Christmas.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 30, Bears 21.

Steelers (+8) at Chiefs

MDS’s take: The Chiefs just need to win out to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC. I like their chances.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 30, Steelers 20.

Florio’s take: The Steelers cling to slim playoff hopes, and the Chiefs cling to the No. 1 seed. If this game were being played in Pittsburgh, I’d pick the Steelers.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 31, Steelers 20.

Broncos (+1.5) at Raiders

MDS’s take: With Teddy Bridgewater I’d take the Broncos. With Drew Lock I’m taking the Raiders.

MDS’s pick: Raiders 17, Broncos 14.

Florio’s take: The loser of this one is done. The winner likely will be done in time, too.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 21, Broncos 13.

Washington (+10.5) at Cowboys

MDS’s take: The Cowboys will win the NFC East regardless, but they’re jockeying for a playoff seed and they’ll take care of business against a Washington team that is clinging to its playoff life.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 24, Washington 17.

Florio’s take: The Cowboys have sleepwalked their way to the No. 2 seed, thanks to a recently soft schedule. The soft schedule continues.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 34, Washington 24.

Dolphins (+3) at Saints

MDS’s take: I would’ve picked the Saints until Ian Book became their starting quarterback.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 20, Saints 13.

Florio’s take: With 21 Saints on COVID-19 reserve, Miami catches a break in their unlikely quest to make it to the playoffs.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 23, Saints 20.

21 responses to “PFT’s NFL Week 16 2021 picks

  1. I’m sure the Vikes will have a tough time shutting down Matt Stanford, a dude they’ve shut down for years…. But go on….

  2. Chiefs still missing their best defensive player and top two receivers in this game, what does Vegas know at this point?

  3. Wow, Bills vs Pats. Mr. Didn’t Make the Pro Bowl vs Mr. Game Manager. Pats had a nice run, but come back to earth. Bills, Ravens, Cards, 49ers and Vikings get the W.

  4. skcusoirolf says:
    December 23, 2021 at 12:03 pm
    Miami will win at Saints if Holland clears Rona protocols.


    And now Taysom Hill is in the COVID protocol. Unreal.

  5. crapsand says:
    I’m sure the Vikes will have a tough time shutting down Matt Stanford, a dude they’ve shut down for years…. But go on….

    I don’t think Matthew Stafford is the greatest QB to ever come down the pike, and I’m not saying the Vikings can’t beat Los Angeles. They can, especially at home.
    That said, Stafford was a whole lot easier to “shut down” when he was surrounded by Lions players than he will be with the Rams.
    He won’t have to spend all day on the field because his defense can’t stop anyone — a critical difference in light of the way your offense played last week. He also has a better line and a lot more weapons to throw to in LA. I doubt he’s shaking in his boots at the prospect of facing the always-impenetrable Purple Curtain.

  6. Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian both on the Reserve COVID-19 List. That means Ian Book will start as the Saints QB. I’m picking Dolphins – Miami 24, New Orleans 17. Put it in the book!!

  7. pioniere says:
    C’mon Florio and MDS, where’s the love for the Bills?

    I’m rooting for the Bills this weekend. That said, what has Buffalo done in the past month to earn the love of anyone who isn’t already a fan? Not much, I’m afraid.

  8. Bucs over Panthers – Bucs need a redemption game and the Panthers are a team that should be easy to get it against..

    Falcons over Lions – Falcons are just good enough to keep hanging around and well, the Lions are the Lions (they surprise you once or twice a year)..

    Dolphins over Saints – Dolphins have found enough ways to go on a winning streak and the Saints are a team questionable at many key positions… I doubt they knock out 3 key players on their opponents team like last week!

  9. Browns have regressed this year, Packers should beat them easily enough. Packers 34 Browns 17

  10. Idregonspengler says:
    I’m rooting for the Bills this weekend. That said, what has Buffalo done in the past month to earn the love of anyone who isn’t already a fan? Not much, I’m afraid.
    Bills took the defending champs to OT and lost due to 3 egregious PI mistakes, and barely lost to the Pats at home in sustained 35+mph wins. Doesnt look good on paper, but the fact that it’ll be 45 w/no wind in Foxboro this weekend bodes poorly for MJ (lol) and company.

  11. Patriots 24 Bills 20 Look for Mac Jones to Hunter Henry to be the difference maker in this game especially in the red zone. However, Josh Allen will not make it easy, but ultimately the Pats will lock up the division.

    Fins 16 Saints 9 A low scoring ugly defensive game that will be won by the Fish who are starting to creep up the standings.

    Bucs 38 Panthers 13 This is going to be an ugly beatdown for the Panthers no matter who is at quarterback. Look for Ronald Jones to get a lot of yardage, the Brady to Gronk connection to reappear, and the Bucs defense to force multiple turnovers.

  12. whoatherebuddy says:
    December 24, 2021 at 10:46 am
    Cowboys will lock up the #2 seed then immediately be bounced in the first round.


    Cowboys can’t lock up the #2 seed this week, so I’m not sure where you’re going with that prediction.

    That being said, I think they’ll beat Washington even though I think they’re not #2 seed material.

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