Kliff Kingsbury has a bad habit of late-season slides

NFL: JAN 17 NFC Wild Card - Cardinals at Rams
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As the Cardinals pick up the pieces of a season that was, in the opinion of J.J. Watt, a “massive failure,” the latter stages of the campaign featured a similar outcome for coach Kliff Kingsbury.

For the ninth straight year, first at Texas Tech and now at Arizona, Kingsbury has had a solid start followed by a flailing finish.

In 2013 with the Red Raiders, 7-0 yielded to 1-5. The next year, a 2-0 beginning was followed by 2-8. In 2015, 5-2 became 2-4. Then, 3-1 turned into 2-6. In 2017, he started 4-1 before ending 2-6. During his final year in Lubbock, Kingsbury began 5-2 and went 0-5.

His three years in Arizona have been no different. In 2019, 3-3-1 was chased by 2-7. In 2019, the Hail Murray play vaulted the Cardinals to 6-3. Thereafter, they went 2-5.

This year, an incredible 10-2 start disintegrated, with a 1-5 record the rest of the way.

At some point, it’s not bad luck or coincidence or anything other than a reflection of coaching. The best coaches constantly self-scout their own tendencies and tells, avoiding the creation of patterns that can be deciphered by opponents who aggressively and creatively study film. Those same coaches also are constantly probing for ways to crack the code of each foe’s offense and/or defense.

It’s fair to ask whether Kingsbury and his staff are properly doing that, particularly on offense. Is Kingsbury working to spot his own flaws and to address them? If he figuring out the opportunities presented by opposing defenses?

Last night’s game, the third meeting between the Cardinals and Rams in 2021, showed that one team was ready — and one team was not. How much of that traces to a lack of detail when it comes to mixing things up, finding flaws in the opposing defense, and/or identifying and plugging any openings in their offense?

Here’s one thing (and possibly the only thing) I’ve learned after 20 years of covering the NFL. There are two kinds of coaches in pro football. A small handful of great ones, and everyone else.

The great ones live, eat, and breathe the game, constantly looking for any edge against the opponent and/or any way to keep the opponent from getting an edge. Everyone else does not.

In which category does Kingsbury fall? His team’s performances in every season since 2013 show that the right answer is “everyone else.”

43 responses to “Kliff Kingsbury has a bad habit of late-season slides

  1. Considering how unbelievably qualified he was to be a NFL HC in the first place this is quite surprising.

    (Sarcasm)

  2. Great points but how long is Mike Tomlin going to get a pass when he hasnt done anything since 2011 ?

  3. nflhistorybuff68 says:
    January 18, 2022 at 11:08 am
    Great points but how long is Mike Tomlin going to get a pass when he hasnt done anything since 2011 ?
    ———————————–

    But he has. He’s been relevant into December and January just about every single year. That’s all owners and GMs really care about. It makes money because people keep watching.

    As far as Kingsbury, the team didn’t seem to have much defensive depth, and once Hopkins and Connor went down, Murray wasn’t able to transition to carrying the team. That could be pinned on Koach K, since the gameplans didn’t seem to change much when the two best weapons on the team went down, but really, Murray should have been able to adjust on the fly like Rogers, Manning, Brady, Ben, Brees did/do until their bodies eventually give out and they can’t throw anymore.

  4. What you described is EXACTLY what happens with rookie players that start out hot, before there is a ton of film on them. Then opposing coordinators adjust, and it’s back on the player to make counter-adjustments to keep developing. Same thing goes for coaches, each year he starts out hot, but makes 0 adjustments and gets obliterated once opposing coordinators and coaches figure out how to counteract his opening (and only) scheme.

  5. I’d be curious as to his college games’ strength of opponent in those early season games. It may be filled with early season filler opponents that’s prevalent in my own college and make it look artificially good until they start playing in conference teams and fall off the cliff.

  6. Clearly he doesn’t make adjustments when other teams make adjuatments. If you look all his late season collapses happen after the bye week. Most teams take that time to self scout and improve. The only reason he won 2 games after bye this year is bc they played the bears and the cowboys… 2 other teams that are poorly coached. All that talent and they’re essentially the West Texans.

  7. “The great ones live, eat, and breathe the game, constantly looking for any edge against the opponent and/or any way to keep the opponent from getting an edge. Everyone else does not.“
    ——————————

    I don’t know if you remember images of him in his mansion during the 2020 draft, but if you do, you know he’s definitely in the latter group!

  8. We’re used to the Cardinal slides in LA. Funny watching the media get all worked up about them.

  9. Imagine that. This is the same NFL coach that worried more about an Instagram worthy backdrop for the NFL draft than the draft itself. All glitz, no substance.

  10. The month of December reveals the contenders and exposes the pretenders.

    But hey, what do you expect when you bring that Texas Tech – 35-40(.467) record formula to your Organization? You get mediocre play and mediocre results. Its not rocket science.

  11. Since 2011 Tomlin is 111-64-2 for a .631 win percentage. He is 20th in NFL history in career win percentage at .643. He’s not at Belichick’s .670, and definitely has flaws, but Tomlin’s still one of the best coaches around. I would compare him to an Andy Reid and his .633 lifetime win percentage, who needs the right players and situations to mask his flaws. What random coordinator are you replacing Tomlin with that will be better than 20th in NFL history?

  12. Murray had at least 10 plays with guys running wide open and simply missed them, didn’t see them or was scrambling around like a decapitated chicken. Perhaps it’s not the coaching but just another off-script QB that got figured out at the end of his year 3?

  13. After this years collapse and having a history of collapse’s I would think he’d get canned and find someone to get the best out of Murray, and hopefully he hasn’t reached his peak

  14. Same old Cardinals. Kliff jumps around on the sideline like a kangaroo the first half of the season and crumbles the second half. Him and crybaby Kyler with his arrogant self. That’s what they deserve lmao.

  15. Arizona seems to be a little short at QB bahahaha , maybe the can swap kyler for Mayfield pffft show me a big 12 QB from OU that has done squat.

  16. Tomlin is a MUCH better coach than Kingsbury.

    Tomlin had a winning season EVERY year..finishing 1st or 2nd in the division every year. Tomlin took Pittsburg to the playoffs in 10 out of 15 years..gooing to 2 Superbolws and winning one superbowl.

  17. College starts are always misleading, look at who he played in early season @ TTU. His biggest failure is putting all his eggs in the Kyler basket. Amazing athlete, below average NFL QB.

  18. As the late Denny Green once said “They are who we thought they were”. No need to blame Kingsbury.

  19. Get rid of both him and Murray. They’re both an embarrassment to pro football and the state of AZ.

  20. Well Yes…but you could ALSO make a point that he does a Tremendous job “adjusting” to the other coaches and his late season slides…by starting out HOT the next year..

    I mean…if everyone has him figured out every year…then why does he start out Hot the next year?

  21. Kyler Murray wears down as the season progresses because he’s small, and that shows up in Arizona’s W-L record.

  22. Not a Caedinals fan so cannot speak to anything else that might be at play, but seems to me a coach who takes a perennial loser to 3-13, then 5-10, then 8-8, then 11-6, in tough division, must be doing a lot of right things.

    Lots of teams fall off during a season, for lots of reasons. Lots of teams wilt the first time they hit the playoffs. Last night looked like the QB was the main problem.

    There may be only 3 or 4 fanbases who “like” their coach but clearly theee are more good coaches than that.

    I would be carefull about rushing to throw out a coach based on these facts. Would Philadelphia like to have Andy Reid back?

  23. hobbes says:
    January 18, 2022 at 12:47 pm
    Not a Caedinals fan so cannot speak to anything else that might be at play, but seems to me a coach who takes a perennial loser to 3-13, then 5-10, then 8-8, then 11-6, in tough division, must be doing a lot of right things.

    Lots of teams fall off during a season, for lots of reasons. Lots of teams wilt the first time they hit the playoffs. Last night looked like the QB was the main problem.

    There may be only 3 or 4 fanbases who “like” their coach but clearly theee are more good coaches than that.

    I would be carefull about rushing to throw out a coach based on these facts. Would Philadelphia like to have Andy Reid back?

    0 0 Rate This

    ===========================================================

    Andy Reid won pretty much right out of the gate. Four straight division championships and multiple NFC championship games (and a Super Bowl) in his first five years, if memory serves…

  24. I’m not a Cardinals fan or hater but was it just me or did this guy look absolutely petrified the entire game on the sidelines? Maybe he looks that way all the time but he looked like he’d crawl back in his mother womb if he could.

  25. Yeah, but he looks good, has McVay connections, is young and has a cool house — those seem to be the qualifications these days.

  26. The Cardinals are becoming a typical Phoenix sports franchise, like the Suns,…Perennially just good enough to be cannon fodder in the playoffs. The NFL seasons are so long now that anyone that starts out hot and tries to go flat out is doomed; it’s the teams that go slow and just stay close enough to the leaders, waiting for the right time to make their move, to finish peaking in time for the playoffs that win…Kliff should know this by now…let him go and bring in Flores…

  27. avoiding the creation of patterns

    ___

    Yup, it’s like writing the same Rodgers or Brady story week after week.

  28. College coaches at power five conferences always start strong because they pad the schedule with cupcakes at the start of the season. How he has done that at the NFL level is beyond me though, and maybe there is an issue with a lack of self-scouting. This year losing Hopkins undoubtably also made an impact.

  29. You could argue that’s the toughest division in football and he’s got them WAY better than they were when he got there. He’ll probably have another year to figure out how to finish a season.

  30. Since 2011 Tomlin is 111-64-2 for a .631 win percentage. He is 20th in NFL history in career win percentage at .643. He’s not at Belichick’s .670, and definitely has flaws, but Tomlin’s still one of the best coaches around. I would compare him to an Andy Reid and his .633 lifetime win percentage, who needs the right players and situations to mask his flaws. What random coordinator are you replacing Tomlin with that will be better than 20th in NFL history?
    ————————————————————————————-
    Hue Jackson? Rich Kotite?

  31. The great ones live, eat, and breathe the game, constantly looking for any edge against the opponent and/or any way to keep the opponent from getting an edge. Everyone else does not.
    _____________

    That is a patently false statement. I’m sure there are mediocre coaches that live, eat, and breathe the game. There’s a lot more to the job than being obsessed with football. There’s leadership, innovation, managing people, handling administrative issues, handling crises, evaluating talent, etc. Lots of coaches who sleep in their offices get fired.

  32. downsouth49er, you are spot on about Murray. His body language when things go wrong is atrocious. Not a leader at all.

  33. Some coaches emphasize how you finish over how you start. Some coaches will ask you if you can win the game in the first quarter, or second or third, when they know they can only win it in the fourth. Some coaches will talk about starting out “fast” while others will say it’s all about how you finish. Different philosophies have different results. KK’s philosophy speaks for itself.

    The Cardinals have the skilled players to start fast but they don’t have the depth to finish strong. The NFL game is one of attrition and you need solid depth to finish strong. “Next Man Up” is key in the NFL.

  34. To be honest I’ve been very surprised at how well he’s done in the NFL. You take a guy who couldn’t win in the Big 12 where defense is non existent and place him in the NFL just because he looks like a guy that’s been successful in the league. Not really a recipe for success. That’s like drafting a QB that was sub par in college in the 1st round just because he has Tom Brady’s haircut and expecting him to excel. To Kingsbury’s credit he’s far exceeded any expectations that I had for him.

  35. Late season slides happen as players go down to injury and the depth behind them is lacking. Often happens on teams made up of hot FANS eating up cap. That’s on Keim.

    What should bother them is how Green Bay rolled in there with 60% of their starters out, ZERO WRs and 2/3’s of the coaches missing and win on your field.

    That was the beginning of the end for AZ. Mental breakdown.

  36. It’s pretty clear that NFL teams are making adjustments against the Cardinals that Kingsbury can’t counter. Cardinals looked like a last-place club last night, not a playoff team.

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