The draft happens in four days. Even in a year with not many teams having first-round eyes on quarterbacks, all eyes will be on the quarterbacks.
As a result, we’ve been eyeing various odds set by PointsBet for the upcoming selection process, as it relates to quarterbacks.
The over-under for quarterbacks taken in round one has been set at 2.5. The two that are regarded, based on the odds, as the first-rounders are Liberty’s Malik Willis (pictured) and Kenny Pickett of Pittsburgh.
And Willis is the favorite to be the first quarterback selected, with current odds at -145. Pickett is at +135. Next comes Desmond Ridder at +1000, Matt Corral at +1800, and Sam Howell at +5000.
Here’s where it gets intriguing. Even though Willis is the favorite to be the first quarterback drafted, Pickett has better odds to be selected at one specific position in the top 20.
At No. 6, Pickett is a +175 favorite to be the selection. Willis stands at +400. Thus, while the oddsmakers at PointsBet generally regard Willis as being viewed as more desirable, they think Carolina prefers Pickett to Willis.
Willis also is the favorite to be taken in the two spots held by the Saints, with +650 odds at No. 16 and +750 odds at No. 19. Pickett is +1000 for both slots. At No. 20, where the Steelers pick, Willis is the favorite at +500. Pickett is just behind Willis, at +600.
Much of any of this comes from guesswork, obviously. But if sports books are going to take bets on these matters, it matters to have an idea as to how it will go.
They’ll complain if any of the bettors have inside info (more on that later). But the bookies need the inside info in order to best set the odds.
We’ll find out on Thursday whether the odds have been set correctly for the quarterback position. And it will get the most interesting at pick No. 6, where the favorite to be the first quarterback picked takes a back seat to second man on the list.