Which quarterbacks are next up for new deals?

Day 2 of mini camp for the Denver Broncos
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With Kyler Murray becoming the latest quarterback to land a major contract, let’s take a look at who’s next to cash in, either this year or next. (Or, maybe, not at all.)

Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens quarterback spent months resisting the team’s overtures to do a long-term deal. Now, he wants to get his second contract. Complicating matters is that he has no agent. He has said that contracts signed by other quarterbacks don’t matter to him, which is a clear example of why he desperately needs an agent. Those other deals become precedent for his own, a bar that he should strive to meet or to exceed.

It’s a challenge to separate team from self when it comes to getting a fair contract. Some players get brainwashed by the idea that they owe it to the broader effort to leave extra meat on the bone. Other players recognize that their duty to themselves and their families is to maximize the value that they generate from playing football, because their time for doing so is extremely short. They have no equity in the business. They have only what they can squeeze from ownership and squirrel away in the bank.

Yes, it’s a team sport. But there definitely is a “me” in team when it comes to ensuring that full and fair value is generated by a player who has earned every penny he makes, and who is entitled to pursue as many pennies as he can from owners who have money to burn — and to buy superyachts with.

Russell Wilson.

Deshaun Watson leveraged the quasi-free agency he finagled for himself into a brand-new, market-setting deal. Wilson, who had only one place he truly wanted to play if not Seattle, didn’t take advantage of the opportunity to ask for more on the way through the door.

And that’s a smart move, because he’ll get even more after the 2022 season.

With the richest owner by far poised to buy the team, and with the team giving up so much in trade assets to get Wilson, he’ll get a market-value deal after the season. It likely will be fully guaranteed.

Is there a chance that injury or ineffectiveness hurts his value? Yes, but it’s slim. The Broncos essentially accepted the fact that Wilson will get a monster deal the moment the trade happened. By not doing it now, they know they’ll be paying him even more later.

That said, there’s a chance that the Wal-Mart clan will decide to make Wilson an offer he can’t and won’t refuse before the start of the 2022 regular season. Again, it will be cheaper to do it now than next year, and the terms could be so good for Wilson that he won’t want to carry the risk of having injury or subpar play cloud his value come next year.

Joe Burrow.

His window on a new contract opens at the conclusion of the 2022 regular season. Burrow already has earned his second deal. And who knows? He could be the first young quarterback to get his second contract after the final game of the regular season and before the start of the postseason, if the Bengals qualify for the playoffs again.

Burrow may face local pressure to “take less.” Hopefully, he won’t. He has transformed that franchise. He deserves everything he’s able to get. If they want to keep him for the long haul, they need to change their ways — and they possibly already are, given that they’re finally selling stadium naming rights.

That said, it may be difficult to get a fully-guaranteed deal, if owner Mike Brown simply can’t put a giant pile of cash into escrow. Maybe Burrow will be the first quarterback to hinge his compensation to a specific percentage of the cap. Thus, as it goes up, he get more — and his contract never becomes obsolete.

Justin Herbert.

Two great years, no playoff berths. That doesn’t matter. He’s already regarded as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. If the Chargers want to keep him, they’ll have to pay up. Presumably after the 2022 season ends. If they won’t, someone else gladly will, now or later.

Jalen Hurts.

The Eagles have sent mixed signals, publicly and privately, regarding their commitment to Hurts. The commitment to the 2020 second-round pick seemingly was made when the Eagles traded for receiver A.J. Brown.

Here’s the question. Will Hurts deliberately take a second-tier deal in order to ensure that the Eagles will always have a solid team around him?

The fact that he wasn’t a first-round pick will bring his long-term status to a head sooner than otherwise. He’ll be a free agent in March 2024, unless the Eagles apply the franchise tag. His performance this season will go a long way toward helping the Eagles peg his future value. The challenge then will be getting on the same page with Hurts.

Tua Tagovailoa.

He’s also entering his third season. After it ends, he’ll be eligible for a new deal. It’s the ultimate upside for delivering on his potential, and for taking full advantage of the help he’ll have around him.

If he doesn’t step up, however, he could end up looking elsewhere for his second NFL contract, either if he’s released after the 2022 season or if he becomes a free-agent when his four-year rookie deal expires.

Baker Mayfield.

He’s on a one-year deal in Carolina. If he performs well, the Panthers will surely want to keep him. Others will become interested.

Surprisingly, the multi-million-dollar haircut Mayfield took to grease the skids out of Cleveland didn’t include a promise from the Panthers not to apply the franchise tag next year. If he overachieves this season, he may find himself blocked from the open market by the tag.

Jimmy Garoppolo.

Unless he signs a long-term deal as part of a trade to a new team, Garoppolo will become a free agent in March. That makes it critical for him to find a place where he can play — and play well — in 2022.

Daniel Jones.

The Giants didn’t pick up his fiffth-year option. The 2019 top-10 pick enters a contract year. If he becomes the guy the Giants thought he’d be three years ago, he’ll get a long-term deal or the franchise tag.

Ryan Tannehill.

He’s got two years left on his current deal. He was absent from some of the voluntary offseason program, possibly in an effort to get an adjustment. After this season, the Titans may have to make a long-term decision. Which may be one of the reasons why they drafted Malik Willis.

Matt Ryan.

He has two years on his contract, as he enters his first season with the Colts. If he delivers, the team may want to give him a big pile of money in order to ensure that he’ll be around for a few more seasons.

Tom Brady.

The GOAT will be a free agent in 2023. He’ll be able to pick his next team, unrestricted and unfettered. And with $37.5 million per year waiting for him from Fox, he’ll be able to tell anyone who wants him to keep playing that, in order to get him, they’ll have to pay him more than what he’d be getting to not actually play.

32 responses to “Which quarterbacks are next up for new deals?

  1. Lamar is a man of his own, will get paid like it. Tua will garner a big deal, so will Burrow, but he will never live up to it-one hit wonder. Tannehill will take whatever is presented to him. Herbert will get a big deal with few achievements along the way as long as Staley is coach. Jimmy G and Hurts will have trouble getting paid their worth. And why is Baker Mayfield even on this list?

  2. “Some players get brainwashed by the idea that they owe it to the broader effort to leave extra meat on the bone”.
    That’s simplistic. Maybe they recognize that they’re never going to be able to spend all of the money that even an average starter QB deal would get them, and would rather win a championship. Or maybe they realize that team success will result in more endorsement money, or an even better contract next time.

  3. You know Wilson will want to be the highest paid QB but in reality he’s slipped a lot.

    Not nearly as mobile which then makes his height a real negative. It’s why he got sacked so much – held the ball because he didn’t have clear sight lines except on deep balls.

    Good luck Broncos.

  4. The only ones I would be inclined to pay today would be Wilson and Burrow. The others I need to see more. Lamar isn’t a passer and I would look to deal him and unload, someone will give you a boat load for him. Herbert would be next but again I need to see more. Paying for guys before they really show they can win in this league is how you end up paying for a Wentz. Franchise QBs are hard to find but paying the wrong one means your job too. Cardinals will find this out soon. Hurts, Tua and the rest of the list just haven’t proven the can get it done. Ryan is older, if he balls out this year I would throw him something to keep him happy until they find a replacement.

  5. Does anybody else get tired of his ridiculous opinion that every single player should try to get every penny they can? It just gets old. The greed over results/success is already at a pretty disgusting level with many of the players. Brady is who he is bcuz of the money he didn’t chase, plus it probly led to him making more in endorsements over his career than if he chased the money at the expense of his success.

  6. I still say IF owners are willing to open up their wallets , let the players negotiate these ridiculous contracts. Owners are making billions off tv. , tv streaming and ,legalized gambling.

  7. I suspect the Viklings, in their infinite wisdom, will lock in Kirk for five more guaranteed years before some USFL team beats them too it. They are a match made in heaven.

  8. Money is ruining the quality of on field product. Aside from Aaron Donald and TJ Watt everyone when they get paid don’t produce like before being paid.

  9. Bronco fans meet Mark Rodgers, Wilson’s agent. He is a baseball agent and he will want this contract to not only be fully guaranteed but to set the market, I guess it will be north of 50 million per, so if you have super bowl aspirations better win this year before that cap bomb hits.

  10. The sheer stupidity of the line “the next contract is highest” is amazing. And that somehow or another (sometimes through how a contract is viewed) it continues to happen is confounding. Because let’s face it, the next guy up is RARELY the best QB (or even near the top). I get that the QB in professional football is the most important position, but to pay the guy 2-3x everyone else on the team (even when pretty average) is crazy.

  11. This next up automatically means more money thing is getting beyond ridiculous. Teams should put an end to it.

  12. jonathankrobinson424 says:
    July 23, 2022 at 4:45 pm
    I still say IF owners are willing to open up their wallets , let the players negotiate these ridiculous contracts. Owners are making billions off tv. , tv streaming and ,legalized gambling.

    ———-

    It seems you don’t understand the salary cap

  13. Herbert & Burrow break the bank, and deservedly so. They will also rule the AFC. These scrambling/short/weak-armed, can’t get past their 1st read QBs, like Jax, Murray, and Hurts will get their money. But they will fold like a card table in the playoffs.

  14. grant35 says:
    July 23, 2022 at 9:32 pm
    Herbert & Burrow break the bank, and deservedly so. They will also rule the AFC. These scrambling/short/weak-armed, can’t get past their 1st read QBs, like Jax, Murray, and Hurts will get their money. But they will fold like a card table in the playoffs.
    ____________________________________

    Laughable how you just assume these 2 guys will do great in the playoffs while even making the playoffs is no easy task, ask Herbert himself. I’ve never seen so much hype over 2 NFL QBs who collectively have not done much at all. Burrow could have easily taken a first round exit against Vegas and it was not his first year in the NFL and Herbert, btw, is still waiting. You guys crack me up how you assume a running QB can’t go through progressions, I see them do it all the time, they just have another weapon to work with and you don’t like it for whatever reason.

  15. How exactly has Herbert already “earned it” in the minds of many posters..

    Yet Kyker Murray hasn’t???

  16. QB’s who try to maximize are both selfish and shooting themselves in the foot. Tom Brady has makes sooo sooo much more from his endorsements than he does his contract because he wins and he historicaly that’s in part because he left $ on the table to make his teammates better around him. No QB who’s taken more than 13% of their teams cap has ever won the SB for a reason.

  17. Hurts will be a problem because he’s benefitted from the Eagles media machine. No team brags and pumps up their players like they do. They win every pre-season.

  18. Herbert is an above average QB. In this market that means big money. He will demand about 6 million more a year than Watson and get it. I just can’t see the Chargers making a SB with paying a good but not great QB that much money.

  19. Next years draft is loaded at QB as many as 7 1st rd QB’s drafted so many of these guys like Hurt’s Tanneyhill , Jones , Ryan will be looking for jobs by next season .

  20. Obviously the Bengals business runs just fine. You seem to be the one who has a problem with it.

  21. To those who say ” running QBs go thru their progressions”, please come up w/ one primarily-running QB who has even sniffed a SB win. They only look like they go thru progressions because they are on the verge of running for their lives.

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